Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report

Bitcoin rallied to $7236.39 today on strong buying pressure. Setting the first higher high since March 20th before settling to close at the current trading price of $6.7 to $6.8k

Charge!
4h


#dyor
D



Some perspective

#stronghands

[smartcomet]

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/60675/v-shape-recovery-is-likely-fundstrats-tom-lee

The number of Americans seeking jobless benefits hit an all-time record of 6.64 million,
but equity and crypto analyst Tom Lee of Fundstrat said the market might have clocked in a bottom ahead of the brutal economic data.

[xhomerx10]

  Jesus jojo69!  This is 1984; get with the times man.

[HI-TEC99]

  Jesus jojo69!  This is 1984; get with the times man.

Government cheese is essential.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_cheese

That fancy food in the picture isn't essential. It's doubleplusungood.



Government beer is essential.



That fancy beer in the shops isn't essential. It's doubleplusungood.

[Biodom]

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/60675/v-shape-recovery-is-likely-fundstrats-tom-lee

The number of Americans seeking jobless benefits hit an all-time record of 6.64 million,
but equity and crypto analyst Tom Lee of Fundstrat said the market might have clocked in a bottom ahead of the brutal economic data.

I doubt that you can project recent historical data into current situation.
After all, the peak is almost 10 times higher than ALL historical data.

[lightfoot]

Shit man, I'd steal that stuff on general principle.

[aesma]

Yeah, me too! The problem is that only few manage to achieve this! Even if you think you have a strategy, this is not enough for successful regular trading. Generally, you have to read a lot, watch the market statistics closely for several years without trading in order to be able to predict with > 50% success. And even then you need one more thing - to master your emotions. If you are an emotional trader you will make many bad decisions, despite your ability to predict the market when you were not in.

P.S.  A warning in general, not personally to aesma. It seems to me that many n00b traders entered some of the main exchanges lately. They hit the sell button at a price they have some profit, say 1%, instead of just placing their bids in the order book. I watch Coinbase and Bitstamp closely and see quite often that at some point many simultaneous sells block the exchange for 4-5 seconds. After the block dissapears, the price is like 5-10% lower. And the poor guys see with a frustration that they've market sold lower than they bought. There is a limit sell button also, people! When these n00bs gonna learn to use it?

I bought my first BTC at 350$ so I'm not a total noob. I mined LTC to get BTC.

The strategy I'm looking for has no place for emotions. I've done all that already, the ponzis, lending, selling then buying back higher...

BTC is very volatile, so starting with an amount of cash and BTC, there should be a sure way to end up with more in the end.

Of course if you consider that BTC will go up and up, then just buy BTC with the cash and you're done, but IMHO you lose opportunities.

I lack a strategy.

 There is no strategy, but to HODL, when dealing with the honey badger.

 If you try to trade, you're gonna have a bad time.

I HODL a good chunk so there is no worries there.

[jojo69]

don't make losing trades


good luck

[aesma]

You 2 assholes smh  
He came to the right place
I wouldn't mind a reminder from the J people, if they don't mind, check I'm not losing it.

Hello.

Some of you have mentioned making profits by trading. I'm also making some, although I lack a strategy.

I have a stash of BTC I won't touch, then I have say 1 BTC and 7000$ to play with. I'm fine if at any one point that play money is all cash or all BTC, the goal being to grow it overall, of course.

What should I do ?

I was not going to say anything, but since I got invited... oh gosh V8 what did you do to me... .. I feel as if this might be a BIG waste of time...

.
.
.

I probably left some things out.. but these ideas should at least get you started, and really you have to do a lot of the structuring work yourself, anyhow.. including thinking about your increments, your spreads and how far you are willing to allow the BTC price to go in either direction before you either stop or inject more value into such system.  Furthermore, actual structuring and and attempting to tailor the whole thing is part of the learning process including figuring out ways to make your system completely your own  in such a way that you ensure that your system is profitable in the direction that you are striving to achieve... while accounting for your personal financial and personality specifics, including your cashflow, your other investments, your views of bitcoin as compared with other assets, your timeline, your risk tolerance and how much time, skills and abilities to learn you have in order to manage your portfolio and to tweak it from time to time including tweaking it in order to account for how your own circumstances might have changed with the passage of time.

Thanks for your detailed answer.

I have set up orders (previously) in 100$ increments. The excel spreadsheet with percentages is a good idea.

I won't be adding BTC (if I sell BTC, it's to buy something). I might add cash, however I first need to find a way to do it on the DL, maybe an ATM, because my banks are now flagging transfers to exchanges.

100$ may be too much work, my immediate issue though is that I'm using an exchange represented by an octopus, because my cash is there, and I have no way to make combined orders.

Do we agree that for the strategy to work optimally, unless spending all my time in front of a screen and not sleeping, I need combined orders ?

Or maybe a trading bot ?

[bitebits]

You 2 assholes smh 
He came to the right place
I wouldn't mind a reminder from the J people, if they don't mind, check I'm not losing it.

Hello.

Some of you have mentioned making profits by trading. I'm also making some, although I lack a strategy.

I have a stash of BTC I won't touch, then I have say 1 BTC and 7000$ to play with. I'm fine if at any one point that play money is all cash or all BTC, the goal being to grow it overall, of course.

What should I do ?

I was not going to say anything, but since I got invited... oh gosh V8 what did you do to me... .. I feel as if this might be a BIG waste of time...


A factor that should be considered would be how much time do you want to spend trading back and forth.. jbreher has a way more aggressive approach than me, and tighter increments and spreads too, but let me just disclose how I would frame the issue and then jbreher can chime in, if he believes that there might be some additional utility or perspective from his viewpoint.

I believe that you need to attempt to structure your buys and sells to a point that you are NOT very likely to run out of either fiat or BTC or if the BTC price goes shooting beyond a place from your perspective (an attempt at a fair estimation) that you are going to be willing to inject more dollars or BTC into the system (or just to stop your trading if it goes past that point).

For example, if you believe that the worst case scenario is that BTC goes to $3,500 or you would be willing to inject more cash if the BTC price were to go below $3,500, then you would then set up your BTC buy orders incrementally all the way down from here (let's say about $6,300) to $3,500 to allocate all of the $7k that you have authorized. 

You can set up your BTC buy orders at increments of about every $100 if you want to be somewhat aggressive and you want your buy orders to execute a lot more frequently (which can be good for practice and learning too) or you can spread out your buy orders more, such as every $500 if you do not want them to execute as frequently (you won't get as much practice, but still might help to achieve your objective of buying (or trading) bigger swings). 

You can also structure your BTC buys increments in terms of percentage change in the price, but that tends to be more difficult to keep track of, even though it is more scientifically accurate, and you could even create an excel spreadsheet that would automatically calculate for you, too... if you want to attempt to be more precise about it.

So, for example, if you decide to go somewhere in the middle of the road, such as having BTC buy orders every $250, then 13 BTC buy orders would be between about $3,500 and $6,300, then your Buy orders would be about $538.46 each. 

If a buy order executes, then you add a sell order to the sell side that you had already set up and at whatever increments that you had chosen to sell.  You can choose to take profits in dollars or to take profits in BTC, and of course, since a lot of us might lean towards wanting to accumulate BTC, then you would try to structure your orders in such a way that they are stacking sats rather than dollars which largely means that when you generate dollars through a sale you would end up using all that generated BTC for any buys that you set up.  Of course, in the end, we all expect the BTC price to go up, so you are going to end up selling that whole BTC anyhow... so there is that seemingly inevitable dynamic.

Regarding the BTC sell orders, you set them up similar to your buy orders and you try to figure out how far you expect the BTC price to go up before you plan to inject more BTC into your system for the purpose of selling them and to keep your system going.  Maybe you don't want to dip into any BTC until the BTC price goes above $17,500 so you would be willing to incrementally sell the whole BTC that you have so far allocated all the way up to $17,500.  Maybe you start at these current BTC prices with BTC sell orders every $250, and then when the BTC prices reach above $8k they become every $300 and then when they are above $10k they are every $350, and you continue to more or less increase the increments based on an approximate percentage that you are willing to structure into the sales. 

Therefore, you calculate how many BTC orders that you are going to end up selling all the way up to your top price point, and you can divide it or even put such formula into an excel spreadsheet if you want to have an accurate assessment regarding how far 1BTC should go up the price scale and if it works for your requirements.

Likely you would be selling an amount in terms of dollars so that the amount of BTC becomes somewhat smaller as the BTC price goes up.. so maybe the BTC sell orders start out executing at around $7,400 at around .05 BTC ($370) but then by the time the BTC price gets to $17,500 the sell amounts are only in a .025BTC ($437.50) territory.   

Of course, you can tweak around your buy/sell amounts, your increments and the spread between buy and sell orders including making sure that your spread is enough to be profitable including the calculation of any fees that might apply.   

The smaller the spread between buy and sell orders, the more practice that you get and the more that you can learn, but the lower your profits per buy/sell.   Practice does make these systems sink in more, including your being able to tweak them more specifically to your own specifics rather than someone like me providing a framework... and my goals in employing the trading strategy might be a little different than yours, even if some of our objectives of making money and feeling comfortable and secure might be similar.   

I probably left some things out.. but these ideas should at least get you started, and really you have to do a lot of the structuring work yourself, anyhow.. including thinking about your increments, your spreads and how far you are willing to allow the BTC price to go in either direction before you either stop or inject more value into such system.  Furthermore, actual structuring and and attempting to tailor the whole thing is part of the learning process including figuring out ways to make your system completely your own  in such a way that you ensure that your system is profitable in the direction that you are striving to achieve... while accounting for your personal financial and personality specifics, including your cashflow, your other investments, your views of bitcoin as compared with other assets, your timeline, your risk tolerance and how much time, skills and abilities to learn you have in order to manage your portfolio and to tweak it from time to time including tweaking it in order to account for how your own circumstances might have changed with the passage of time.

Where is the profit in this strategy, next to the exchange collecting fees?

[sirazimuth]

RIP Adam Schlesinger. You will be missed.
Phuck this virus sucks.


https://youtu.be/dZLfasMPOU4

[nutildah]

slight correction

if you pay in cash he will gladly take the $80 as his staff doesn't have to fight the insurance company for it for it

Why would you think that?

If the bill says $120, you're on the hook for $120 w/o insurance.

'round these parts, most docs I've asked for a cash discount have responded affirmatively.

Why? Because they don't have to pay the clerical staff to spend the time chasing reimbursement. It's a very real savings to them.

If the physician is the least bit established, most office visit claims are processed as "clean claims," meaning they are automatically processed. They don't have to "fight the insurance company" or "chase reimbursement." They submit the claim and receive payment for it with no questions asked.

Of course if you are willing to pay the amount in cash that would otherwise be reimbursed to them by the insurance company, then yes I can see how they would rather just have the cash, makes sense. Most Americans aren't in a position to be able to do this. That's why they have insurance.

If you _don't_ have insurance and end up at the hospital for some sort of cancer removal and an extended stay, your bill could easily run into the hundreds of thousands, and you will be on the hook for every penny.

Hospitals are willing to work on payment plans for their patients, as they'd rather get something than nothing, but the simpler solution is to just have health insurance. Even if its just medicare or medicaid.

Sometimes a hospital bill will be $200k but the maximum reimbursement from an insurance company is $15k. The charge is high not because the stay, supplies, and procedures were that costly. Its because they are trying to milk the uninsured.

[Gyrsur]

When price go up, sell. A little.

When price go down, buy. A little.

When price go up more, sell. A little more.

When price go down more, buy. A little more.

Do it through a ladder of standing orders.

Harvest the volatility.

Only with your trading funds - not your core stash. Make your buys and sells each small enough that when price go up real far, you don't run out of trading stash.

it's a Market Maker strategy. simplify that it means:

price +xxx --> sell 10.0
price  +xx --> sell  1.0
price   +x --> sell    0.1

volatility of the price

price   -x --> buy    0.1
price  -xx --> buy  1.0
price -xxx --> buy 10.0

the secret is here to manage the right lot sizes if you sell and buy so that you don't run out of the asset.

but if you have a strong buy trend like with BTCitcoin you will run out of bitcoins anytime.

therefore exchanges have 3 sources of income:

1. exchange fees
2. market making
3. market manipulation

because they need to manipulate the market after a long bull run and bring the market down again to get their lost bitcoins back somehow.

[VB1001]

High volatility scares amateurs out of the market.
Others hope to win and play it like a casino.
A pro just sizes his investment.
In this example returns are 0%, +900%, -90%, 0%
A) $100, 100% invested: $100, $1000, $100, $100
B) $100, 25% rebalanced: $100, $325, $252, $252

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1245745840448311303

[nullius]

~

Yeah its not so bad until you are the one who gets it. It starts out like a cold, seems fine. Gets better and better until....From one second to the next you notice breathing getting harder and harder as your eyes widen with shock and your lips start praying to the only god you know for just one more life saving breath.

“The only god I know” is the god of Bitcoin.  He cares about consensus validation, not about breathing; I am on my own with that one.  I do not pray, and do not need to.

Keep your psychologically perverse fear-porn fetish to yourself.  It is disturbing how much you evidently relish spinning a graphically gory horror-story from the real-life suffering of others, in a futile attempt to scare someone who, albeit not immune to the virus, is immune to your memetic contagion.

[Ibian]

“People generally fall into an economic class because of their psychology and their values. Each of the three classes has a characteristic psychological profile. For the lower class, it’s apathy. They have nothing, they’re ground down and they don’t really care. They’re not in the game, and they aren’t going to do anything; they’re resigned to their fate. For the upper class, it’s greed and arrogance. They have everything, and they think they deserve it – whether they do or not. The middle class – at least in today’s world – is run by fear. Fear that they’re only a paycheck away from falling into the lower class. Fear that they can’t pay their debts or borrow more. Fear that they don’t have a realistic prospect of improving themselves.”  

~ Doug Casey

As usual, Pope George Carlin sums it up nicely

I would, however, argue that one's psychology derives from the class they find themselves in, not the other way around. That's the kind of victim-blaming, bootstrap-pulling BS status quo warriors like to spout to justify why people should starve while they buy their 3rd yacht. Because they clearly deserve it because of all their hard work! and a small loan of 1 million dollars

To some degree both. I knew I was worth more than just being another loser on welfare. When I was, it was my firm conviction that the welfare state should be abolished and that a free market would benefit the people as a whole more. It still is now that I am financially independent, nothing has changed.

People gravitate to the class that suits them best. Some people simply do not have the ability to do more than barely feed and clothe themselves no matter what. Some are in unfortunate circumstances. Some are born into riches. But on average, people are where they belong.

[JayJuanGee]

BTC is very volatile, so starting with an amount of cash and BTC, there should be a sure way to end up with more in the end.

I can see that maybe your goals are quite different than mine.

One of the best ways to assure that you have more BTC in the end is just to continue to buy it, as others have said... you buy on the dips and you DCA. 

When you sell any amount of your BTC, you have to be prepared that the price is going to keep going up and those BTC will be sold forever; however, if the price happens to dip, then you can use the proceeds from the sale to buy back, but if you continue to sell on the way up, you are going to end up having fewer BTC because BTC prices are more likely to go up than down, and you do not want to be selling so much of your BTC that you end up depleting your BTC supply... so ultimately the reason for selling BTC should be for downside insurance rather than making more BTC.

[Ibian]

Look closer:
Only the US is blaming China and introduced "China Virus" narrative.
No other country is blaming China and otherwise has a "great relationship" with Xi, according to yesterdays press conference (where the whole stage seemed like to be on a good amount of drugs, imo).

Look closer again.
Don't fall for the obvious.

Thank you for keeping cool and civil and pointing out the facts.

I understand we all get upset and more aggressive than usual in these times, but generalized hate leads to war finally.
And we in Europe still know from our parents where generalized hate and oversimplified answers to complex questions can lead to.

Stay positive folks, if you have nothing else to get joy from, watch the BTC charts. I for one am excited how good  BTC masters this crisis.

Yeah it can lead to killing the enemy. China must be destroyed. Convince me otherwise if you think you can. And if you think you can't, maybe you should reconsider your position.

What am I after all? Just some angry ignorant idiot on the internet right? Is that more than you can handle?

Why convince you?
Maniacs can't be convinced.

Even better, i'll motivate you:
The "enemy" is within your mind. So go ahead, destroy the enemy.

Do you think people get more or less aggressive from simply being written off as maniacs? You are making things worse.

[Ibian]

Look closer:
Only the US is blaming China and introduced "China Virus" narrative.
No other country is blaming China and otherwise has a "great relationship" with Xi, according to yesterdays press conference (where the whole stage seemed like to be on a good amount of drugs, imo).

Look closer again.
Don't fall for the obvious.

Thank you for keeping cool and civil and pointing out the facts.

I understand we all get upset and more aggressive than usual in these times, but generalized hate leads to war finally.
And we in Europe still know from our parents where generalized hate and oversimplified answers to complex questions can lead to.

Stay positive folks, if you have nothing else to get joy from, watch the BTC charts. I for one am excited how good  BTC masters this crisis.

Yeah it can lead to killing the enemy. China must be destroyed. Convince me otherwise if you think you can. And if you think you can't, maybe you should reconsider your position.

What am I after all? Just some angry ignorant idiot on the internet right? Is that more than you can handle?

Take a breather man and rethink your position... I live in the epicenter of the virus and would never say that "China should be destroyed"! Maybe they let it slip out of Wuhan by mistake... who knows... so much propaganda and we will never know the truth. Violence begets violence... nothing good comes from it imho
On a positive note Bitcoin is getting ready for a party 🎉
Cheers trolls and playas 😎

Chinese godzilla just stepped on your family. But take a breather, it's not so bad.

No. Just because it's a virus instead of a nuke does not make them any less responsible for the GLOBAL PANDEMIC they unleashed on the world. It is unbelievable that there are still people who will defend them.

And it does not matter if it was by mistake or deliberate. It's the thought that counts when you are ten years old. In the adult world, results matter. Especially when your choices affect billions.