trying to be prepared and having plan, whether it is incremental or trying to hit the top to exit with big parts of stash is all nice and smart. but there are problems. Marcus of Augustus posting of the Matrix/Neo meme holds much more truth than it appears when only seeing it as a joke. one day there will be a run-up in bitcoin where all the exit-plan guys will get burned badly. because all they get is collapsing fiat. it will be a lot of fiat, and they will feel rich for some days, but in reality they have just given away their wealth.
I am all fine in preparing for the collapse of the dollar/fiat system, and even with our ridiculous system of fiat brrrrr abuse, it still remains prudent for a lot of guys to continue to keep some value in fiat and also to cash out into fiat along the way.. especially the longer that they have been in bitcoin... including peeps like you 600w...
Sure I do not know your bitcoin financial situation, but if you got into bitcoin in 2013.. then you have been through at least one bubble and possibly a bit more than that.
Let's say that you were a bit hesitant about BTC in 2013, and you only put 1% of your wealth in BTC, but your time in bitcoin had caused that percentage to go up to 50% or more in BTC, and then if we have more exponential BTC price rises, then you get into the 80% and 90% and higher region... without you really doing anything besides HODLing your BTC
So in other words, even with 50% of you wealth in BTC, you are doing pretty damned well, and you are even hedged, and BTC prices keep going up relative to bitcoin, and really you are rich as fuck when you BTC goes to 80% or 90% in fiat, and how much does it really matter if the remaining 10% to 20% goes to zero... In a large number of circumstances, Not very much, I would argue.
Furthermore, you could cash out 1% of your value into BTC for every 10% price rise in BTC as the value of your BTC HODLings keeps appreciating from 50% to 90% and beyond, and that practice of even cashing out some of your BTC into fiat along the way is still going to leave you rich as fuck in BTC.. and the whole practice of cashing out is prudent and even remains a kind of hedge (or camouflage) to be able to have some fiat when the fiat status quo officials are getting all nervous about losing everything to BTC and they are rushing into BTC like fuck or at least suffering from the ongoing devaluation of anything that was valued in fiat.
maybe some of the present day dollar billionaires are waiting too for that moment. they don't take the risk of investing in bitcoin early, but they wait until the $ collapse is around the corner (better say accelerating since it is already going on) and then swiftly jump from fiat to btc. leaving the bitcoin hodlers with their brillant exit plan with tons of worthless printed paper confetti.
I think that BTC holders are going to be quite well off in such a scenario, even if they only have 50% in BTC... In such a scenario their BTC would go way the fuck up, and you are correct that there are a large number of status quo players who have failed and refused to stack up a sufficient amount of sats.. and their mere stacking of 1 bitcoin or just a fraction of a bitcoin with their millions is going to pale compared to anyone who had been stacking sats for a decent amount of time... even someone starting now and someone who NOW might have trouble getting to 1BTC.
imagine you win $30 million in a lottery tomorrow. what would you do with it? after the hookers and blow I am sure you want to invest. land? sure. but be aware that in case your country goes bonkers and you have to leave, you can't take that with you. and maybe you can't even sell it in case of emergency fast enough for a good price. real estate? prices are on record highs, you buy into a bubble. stocks? same shit. gold? also very hard to carry across borders. and on record highs. investing in bitcoin seems reasonable. for all the crisis scenarios for sure. if you would invest crazy fiat figures into bitcoin because of safety, why would you plan the exact opposite only because the asset that you identified as safe playing is doing what you always expected it to do: becoming more valuable in fiat.
You are preaching to the choir in terms of recognition of these various problems in terms of BTC's relative value
in the moment the nemesis of fiat does its thing, the biggest proponents of bitcoin want to jump into the the arms of rotting fiat. I don't get that.
I agree with you if guys are cashing out 50% or more of their BTC at once, then they may be running into problems.
Personally, I believe that guys can hedge in fiat with much smaller proportions and still be rich as fuck.
As far as real estate, lambos, hookers, blow, and other necessitates, I think that they can get these things without having to cash out large portions of their BTC... especially if they are just cashing out BTC along the way, including maybe even cashing out enough to cover their expenses for a year or so.. maybe they do not need to cash out that much.. but whatever, the details of guys are going to vary regarding how much they believe that they need to cash out or if they can just spend their BTC as they go.. including questioning if BTC is going to go down a 50% to 80% correction relative to fiat, then guys reasonably get worried about those kinds of short term corrections, if they continue to be a HODLer... then they want to hedge in the asset that is appreciating relative to BTC.. if those kinds of large corrections continue to be a thing.
You may be assuming (and maybe you are correct 600w) at some point in the future there will not be anymore significant BTC corrections, relative to fiat.. which would help to support your don't cash out any BTC thesis..
But guys still need to live and to enjoy hookers, lambos and blow.. etc... So there is that angle, too.
edit: the "this-time-it´s-different" guys will eventually be right one day. then all the efforts of the exit-planners will be crushed. there will be "the big one" someday.
perhaps.. but we are not there, yet. We cannot just plan for the one day that might not happen.. when we gotta live before we die.
edit2: what I mean is that there will be no buying back later for cheap prices because after the "big-one" prices aint coming back.
Fair enough.. but when that happens, many of us will have enough BTC.. even if it is merely 50% of our wealth.. because we are already filthy fucking rich and don't know what to do with all of the surplus value.
edited out]
If the Bitcoin price keeps rising you should give serious consideration to rebalancing your portfolio.
I don't see any issue owning some real estate, some stonks, some cash, some gold - whatever assets float your boat.
Agreed.
Bitcoin is not an income-earning asset, so you need to keep that in mind.
Bitcoin is already designed to pump forever, so don't get distracted by its purported failure to "earn income" - that is not the reason why we diversify. We diversify for a variety of reasons, including that we cannot eat or drink or have sex with bitcoin... we also should not be planning our future based on some scenario (total btc dominance) that is still way the fuck more theoretical than it is actuality (inspite our current and likely future BTC pumpening(s))
If Bitcoin does achieve world domination this won't be the optimal strategy, but the truth is no one can predict the optimal strategy.
We can each tailor our strategy to our own situations which might have a lot of commonality with others, so there are likely preferred strategies that can be assessed when looking at the various situations of other... so for example, if you do not have any BTC currently, then it would be good to get some bitcoin up to 1-10% of assets to start and then work on DCA-ing and things like that are optimal...
Once you reach your BTC accumulation goals then there are likely optimal strategies to shave a bit off along the way up.. and perhaps even set some regular cashing out plans, in the event that you might be getting more elderly.. none of us will live forever..., so it is optimal to NOT be planning our finances as if we were going to live forever.
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