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Question: 9/19 Closing Price:
0 - 1 (1.6%)
<$10,000 - 3 (4.8%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 2 (3.2%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 13 (20.6%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 19 (30.2%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 8 (12.7%)
$12,001-$12,500 - 7 (11.1%)
$12,501-$13,000 - 2 (3.2%)
>$13,000 - 3 (4.8%)
>$20,000 - 5 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 63

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 22469370 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
RejectedBanana
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July 31, 2020, 11:25:41 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), vapourminer (1), JimboToronto (1), JayJuanGee (1), lightfoot (1)

He seems to have lived his life on his own terms.  That alone deserves respect.

Too bad he gave up on reality and started drinking the Kool-Aid. Happens to a lot of successful people, they think that just because they are successful at one thing they are experts in everything.


There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

Isaac Asimov (1980)
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July 31, 2020, 11:26:29 AM

Breaking News:

Bill Clinton went to Jeffrey Epstein's island with 2 young girls, Virginia Giuffre says. Shocked
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July 31, 2020, 11:41:41 AM

Breaking News:

Bill Clinton went to Jeffrey Epstein's island with 2 young girls, Virginia Giuffre says. Shocked

Impeach him!
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July 31, 2020, 11:43:23 AM

Monica : Hillaryious
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July 31, 2020, 01:01:40 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)

Got my new hat for the occasion of crossing $11,000 and staying up there in the past 48 hours. Which is always a nice sight upon it's self. Wink
Thanks goes to xhomerx10 on it and it took him no time at all since were still holding stronger above $11k.

That looked awesome! Grin
So happy with the result.
I managed to find the original the artist grabbed the background from and it is including both arms.

I was playing around with the original image you gave me trying to make it work with the hat...

avatar-sized

 I used a gold lighting effect which reflects off the black hat giving it a bit more shine and I tried to make a representation of the arm outside the hat but more ethereal looking.
 Let me know what you think.
So I settled on this one:
Hi rdbase,
 How about now?

avatar-sized

Now just waiting to say ShAzAm! while wearing this snazzy hat so we can cross the ATH soon. Grin
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July 31, 2020, 01:44:48 PM
Last edit: July 31, 2020, 06:27:47 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by infofront (1), _javi_ (1)

trying to be prepared and having plan, whether it is incremental or trying to hit the top to exit with big parts of stash is all nice and smart. but there are problems. Marcus of Augustus posting of the Matrix/Neo meme holds much more truth than it appears when only seeing it as a joke. one day there will be a run-up in bitcoin where all the exit-plan guys will get burned badly. because all they get is collapsing fiat. it will be a lot of fiat, and they will feel rich for some days, but in reality they have just given away their wealth.

I am all fine in preparing for the collapse of the dollar/fiat system, and even with our ridiculous system of fiat brrrrr abuse, it still remains prudent for a lot of guys to continue to keep some value in fiat and also to cash out into fiat along the way.. especially the longer that they have been in bitcoin... including peeps like you 600w...

Sure I do not know your bitcoin financial situation, but if you got into bitcoin in 2013.. then you have been through at least one bubble and possibly a bit more than that.

Let's say that you were a bit hesitant about BTC in 2013, and you only put 1% of your wealth in BTC, but your time in bitcoin had caused that percentage to go up to 50% or more in BTC, and then if we have more exponential BTC price rises, then you get into the 80% and 90% and higher region... without you really doing anything besides HODLing your BTC

So in other words, even with 50% of you wealth in BTC, you are doing pretty damned well, and you are even hedged, and BTC prices keep going up relative to bitcoin, and really you are rich as fuck when you BTC goes to 80% or 90% in fiat, and how much does it really matter if the remaining 10% to 20% goes to zero...   In a large number of circumstances, Not very much, I would argue.

Furthermore, you could cash out 1% of your value into BTC for every 10% price rise in BTC as the value of your BTC HODLings keeps appreciating from 50% to 90% and beyond, and that practice of even cashing out some of your BTC into fiat along the way is still going to leave you rich as fuck in BTC.. and the whole practice of cashing out is prudent and even remains a kind of hedge (or camouflage) to be able to have some fiat when the fiat status quo officials are getting all nervous about losing everything to BTC and they are rushing into BTC like fuck or at least suffering from the ongoing devaluation of anything that was valued in fiat.


maybe some of the present day dollar billionaires are waiting too for that moment. they don't take the risk of investing in bitcoin early, but they wait until the $ collapse is around the corner (better say accelerating since it is already going on) and then swiftly jump from fiat to btc. leaving the bitcoin hodlers with their brillant exit plan with tons of worthless printed paper confetti.

I think that BTC holders are going to be quite well off in such a scenario, even if they only have 50% in BTC... In such a scenario their BTC would go way the fuck up, and you are correct that there are a large number of status quo players who have failed and refused to stack up a sufficient amount of sats.. and their mere stacking of 1 bitcoin or just a fraction of a bitcoin with their millions is going to pale compared to anyone who had been stacking sats for a decent amount of time... even someone starting now and someone who NOW might have trouble getting to 1BTC.


imagine you win $30 million in a lottery tomorrow. what would you do with it? after the hookers and blow I am sure you want to invest. land? sure. but be aware that in case your country goes bonkers and you have to leave, you can't take that with you. and maybe you can't even sell it in case of emergency fast enough for a good price. real estate? prices are on record highs, you buy into a bubble. stocks? same shit. gold? also very hard to carry across borders. and on record highs. investing in bitcoin seems reasonable. for all the crisis scenarios for sure. if you would invest crazy fiat figures into bitcoin because of safety, why would you plan the exact opposite only because the asset that you identified as safe playing is doing what you always expected it to do: becoming more valuable in fiat.

You are preaching to the choir in terms of recognition of these various problems in terms of BTC's relative value

in the moment the nemesis of fiat does its thing, the biggest proponents of bitcoin want to jump into the the arms of rotting fiat. I don't get that.

I agree with you if guys are cashing out 50% or more of their BTC at once, then they may be running into problems.

Personally, I believe that guys can hedge in fiat with much smaller proportions and still be rich as fuck.

As far as real estate, lambos, hookers, blow, and other necessitates, I think that they can get these things without having to cash out large portions of their BTC... especially if they are just cashing out BTC along the way, including maybe even cashing out enough to cover their expenses for a year or so.. maybe they do not need to cash out that much.. but whatever, the details of guys are going to vary regarding how much they believe that they need to cash out or if they can just spend their BTC as they go.. including questioning if BTC is going to go down a 50% to 80% correction relative to fiat, then guys reasonably get worried about those kinds of short term corrections, if they continue to be a HODLer... then they want to hedge in the asset that is appreciating relative to BTC.. if those kinds of large corrections continue to be a thing.

You may be assuming (and maybe you are correct 600w) at some point in the future there will not be anymore significant BTC corrections, relative to fiat.. which would help to support your don't cash out any BTC thesis..

But guys still need to live and to enjoy hookers, lambos and blow.. etc...   So there is that angle, too.

edit: the "this-time-it´s-different" guys will eventually be right one day. then all the efforts of the exit-planners will be crushed. there will be "the big one" someday.

perhaps.. but we are not there, yet.  We cannot just plan for the one day that might not happen.. when we gotta live before we die.


edit2: what I mean is that there will be no buying back later for cheap prices because after the "big-one" prices aint coming back.

Fair enough.. but when that happens, many of us will have enough BTC.. even if it is merely 50% of our wealth.. because we are already filthy fucking rich and don't know what to do with all of the surplus value.  


edited out]

If the Bitcoin price keeps rising you should give serious consideration to rebalancing your portfolio.

I don't see any issue owning some real estate, some stonks, some cash, some gold - whatever assets float your boat.

Agreed.

Bitcoin is not an income-earning asset, so you need to keep that in mind.

Bitcoin is already designed to pump forever, so don't get distracted by its purported failure to "earn income" - that is not the reason why we diversify.  We diversify for a variety of reasons, including that we cannot eat or drink or have sex with bitcoin... we also should not be planning our future based on some scenario (total btc dominance) that is still way the fuck more theoretical than it is actuality (inspite our current and likely future BTC pumpening(s))

If Bitcoin does achieve world domination this won't be the optimal strategy, but the truth is no one can predict the optimal strategy.

We can each tailor our strategy to our own situations which might have a lot of commonality with others, so there are likely preferred strategies that can be assessed when looking at the various situations of other... so for example, if you do not have any BTC currently, then it would be good to get some bitcoin up to 1-10% of assets to start and then work on DCA-ing and things like that are optimal...

Once you reach your BTC accumulation goals then there are likely optimal strategies to shave a bit off along the way up.. and perhaps even set some regular cashing out plans, in the event that you might be getting more elderly.. none of us will live forever..., so it is optimal to NOT be planning our finances as if we were going to live forever.
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July 31, 2020, 01:51:14 PM
Merited by Wekkel (1), JayJuanGee (1)

I'm concerned about the large walls of text from "exit-planners" (thanks 600watts for that term).

A 1000-2000usd rise and we talk about selling?? is that enough??

I agree on some carpe-diem stuff or taking some profits (as we are not in this world forever), but i expected better from you, my fellow HODLers.

No exit plan, lets run naked into the fire.. Honey Badger's style.
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July 31, 2020, 01:53:43 PM

nice titfer, homer/rdb






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July 31, 2020, 01:58:31 PM

People said Covid-19 is under control in Australia.
Stay save WO brothers.



Until there is pandemic all countries will have to be careful. 1000 daily infected for a 25 million country is not something catastrophic. Lets see how they did/will tackle the second wave.
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July 31, 2020, 02:06:47 PM


https://twitter.com/NautilusCap/status/1288903795422920711
Quote
#Dollar -- Reminder, 16-year cycle has "captured" all major swings ........... next trough not until February 2025.

hmm. who would win to break this cycle?

2.5 million 'neckbeards in their basements' backed by an army of 25,000 tech-heads with cheap electricity hopefully mostly upstream of the 3 Gorges Dam

or 25,000 crony capitalist families backed by an army of 2.5 million grunts armed to the teeth with nukes and other redundant technologies

That is a particularly salient question.
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July 31, 2020, 02:08:23 PM

[edited out]

my "not getting it" is maybe influenced by trying to justify to myself not selling in the previous 3 bullruns and having to live through the horrors of multiyear bear markets. the chances that the next bull run is the last one are impossible to calculate;

It is not impossible to calculate.  The possibilities that the next bull run is the last one is low as fuck, so we should not be planning our lives around low as fuck probabilities.   Tongue Tongue

Your failure and refusal to shave off some profits in the the last three bullruns should be a learning experience rather than a doubling-down experience, in my humble bumble opinion.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

it would be stupid to act only on behalf of such a doom and gloom scenario.

You are correct.. so stop doing it and stop suggesting that such next bull run might be the last bullrun when that is pretty damned close to fantasy landia...

what I want to express is that it may not be wise to sell 80, 90 or even 100% of your stash only because the fiat it represents makes you drunk.

Sure... that makes sense.

I decided I will always keep at least a quarter of my stash,

That makes sense, too.

no matter what price it reaches. if btc would shoot to $1 million by EOY I would still not go all fiat. in addition leaving my wealth on an exchange to buy back later in such a turmoil that the next run-up frenzy will bring is another risk.

edited

Few of us should be complaining about recommendations to take those kinds of hold your own keys (and keep a decent amount of BTC in cold storage) prudent strategies.   Wink

It is going to be difficult to HODL if the price hits $100,000 or close to that range during the bull phase this time. How many of you will sell nothing & be happy to sit through another long crypto winter? Surely everybody is going to take life changing money out this time?

Not everyone is going to be cashing out of their BTC if BTC prices go to $100k or even $200k because they are in a different stage of their BTC investing including not reaching their BTC accumulation goals - whether that is 1 BTC or 10BTC or 21BTC or some other amount that they consider to be reasonable, and some folks have been in this thread a decent amount of time and do not necessarily have a lot of disposable income that they can invest into BTC.. so people are at different stages of their BTC accumulation.. including their time horizon.
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July 31, 2020, 02:19:14 PM
Merited by kurious (1)

  I am a simple man with absolutely no need for "Lambos",cannot afford the years taken off my life due to any drug habits, and don't want hookers.

....

I suppose that sounds boring.

No worries. Do you know what most companies do these days for their carbon footprint?  offset it. So they pay for some forest or something.


You can go Lambo Drugs Hookers neutral, by off setting it to me. Then you can know hookers and lambo makers can feed their families

It's a plan.  I officially transfer my vice credits to your account.

My suggestion?

You can use bitcoin for the Lambo, but I would use Monero for the hookers and blow.  Just sayin...
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July 31, 2020, 02:24:47 PM

  I am a simple man with absolutely no need for "Lambos",cannot afford the years taken off my life due to any drug habits, and don't want hookers.

....

I suppose that sounds boring.

No worries. Do you know what most companies do these days for their carbon footprint?  offset it. So they pay for some forest or something.


You can go Lambo Drugs Hookers neutral, by off setting it to me. Then you can know hookers and lambo makers can feed their families

It's a plan.  I officially transfer my vice credits to your account.

My suggestion?

You can use bitcoin for the Lambo, but I would use Monero for the hookers and blow.  Just sayin...

I knew that I should have been nicer to you... can never get too much hookers and lambos.. ... and fuck monero.  #nohomo
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July 31, 2020, 02:25:12 PM

Times are tough. Heroes are needed.

Sounds like it's time for Pixar to make Toy Story 5......
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July 31, 2020, 02:44:24 PM

I'm concerned about the large walls of text from "exit-planners" (thanks 600watts for that term).

A 1000-2000usd rise and we talk about selling?? is that enough??

I agree on some carpe-diem stuff or taking some profits (as we are not in this world forever), but i expected better from you, my fellow HODLers.

No exit plan, lets run naked into the fire.. Honey Badger's style.

I have personally seen very little of the people talking about selling (or at least selling OUT) here.  What am I missing?  We are arguably Bitcoin's most elite entourage.  We've all been reading and posting the "When you're ready you won't have to" meme for YEARS.  We are the proverbial choir.

But this is the WALL OBSERVER.  We talk here about bitcoin price speculation.  Certainly that is still kosher?  Or does it now violate the bitcoin purity test?

Plus everyone plays their game.  Mine is to set my coin up to be my wealth/income if possible.  That's one of the reasons I am going to the trouble of running lightning nodes.

Someday I might quote this post... I think it is a little counter intuitive, but the road ahead might not be easy.  My thought is to get my head right for what's coming so i don't get blown around by forces larger than me.  Being prepared for the turbulence ahead is wise IMHO.  And just because there is a serious chance many of us are primed for great fortune does not mean that there are not pitalls ahead!

Eyes open!  Stack your sats!  Gird up! 
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July 31, 2020, 02:51:42 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

People said Covid-19 is under control in Australia.
Stay save WO brothers.



Until there is pandemic all countries will have to be careful. 1000 daily infected for a 25 million country is not something catastrophic. Lets see how they did/will tackle the second wave.

That might be true if infection rates were linear, but they're not. They're exponential.

An illustration of the crushing power of exponential growth: Duckweed can double its surface area every day. If it takes 30 days to completely cover a pond, on which day is the pond half covered?

Answer: Day twenty-nine.

There are many parallels to the network effects of bitcoin in terms of adoption, hashrate, and sometimes price.
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July 31, 2020, 02:54:31 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitebits (1), strawbs (1)

Not everyone is going to be cashing out of their BTC if BTC prices go to $100k or even $200k because they are in a different stage of their BTC investing including not reaching their BTC accumulation goals - whether that is 1 BTC or 10BTC or 21BTC or some other amount that they consider to be reasonable, and some folks have been in this thread a decent amount of time and do not necessarily have a lot of disposable income that they can invest into BTC.. so people are at different stages of their BTC accumulation.. including their time horizon.

Truth.  I have been thinking about posting something to this effect for a while during this conversation.  I have had a very similar experience as 600watt.  Weathered all the peaks and valleys.  Really only ever adding, and not selling.  It took a toll.  And it made me a LOT stronger in many areas of my life.  Brought some of my poker game up a little even.

Also, many of us are in different stages of life.  On twitter i think it was "American HODL" who recently proudly announced he had finally become a "whole-coiner".  I believe he is very young (from my wizened perspective, lol).  So his entire game and strategy is different than someone like me who is actually starting to consider what retirement might look like.

My goals, expenses, stage of life, and history with BTC mean my priorities should probably be very different from his.

Selling for paper money right now?  Madness.  

Taking all your SATS to your grave? Madder still.
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July 31, 2020, 02:56:11 PM

  I am a simple man with absolutely no need for "Lambos",cannot afford the years taken off my life due to any drug habits, and don't want hookers.

....

I suppose that sounds boring.

No worries. Do you know what most companies do these days for their carbon footprint?  offset it. So they pay for some forest or something.


You can go Lambo Drugs Hookers neutral, by off setting it to me. Then you can know hookers and lambo makers can feed their families

It's a plan.  I officially transfer my vice credits to your account.

My suggestion?

You can use bitcoin for the Lambo, but I would use Monero for the hookers and blow.  Just sayin...

I knew that I should have been nicer to you... can never get too much hookers and lambos.. ... and fuck monero.  #nohomo

Well JJG... please at LEAST use lightning and have your node running behind Tor?  Deal?  Maybe Globbo can let you have some of the extras...
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July 31, 2020, 02:59:59 PM
Merited by rdbase (2), El duderino_ (2)

Times are tough. Heroes are needed.

You called?
Sorry, been in the sun! Observing $11,247 & ready for a nice weekend pump.
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July 31, 2020, 03:05:20 PM
Merited by rdbase (1)

Times are tough. Heroes are needed.

You called?
Sorry, been in the sun! Observing $11,247 & ready for a nice weekend pump.

11350 is the key level. We break through that and watch out 12k. Let's do this.
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