Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BALIK]

If Bitcoin breaks through $14,000 (its highest peak since ATH), then there's a very good chance that we'll shoot up to $20,000 over the next weeks (if not days).

The sell walls between $14,000 and $20,000 are extremely weak, and another strong bullish run could easily see them smashed.

As we can see by the recent influx of newly minted stablecoins (ala Tether, USD Coin, TrueUSD etc), there's definitely a bunch of new money moving into the market.

It's not just money being sucked from the shitcoinsaltcoins into Bitcoin, it's also a bunch of new retail investors getting into the market. This is what we need, and this is a large part of the reason why Bitcoin went stratospheric in 2017.

Hopefully it happens sooner rather than later—it would be incredible to see Bitcoin hit a new all-time high this year. I think $100,000 is a bit optimistic (even under the best case scenario), but $20k-$40k is definitely within the realms of possibility.

[gentlemand]

https://www.coindesk.com/suspected-twitter-hacker-arrested-in-florida

Twitter hacker arrested. Why is it always 17yr olds?

If I'm ever unfortunate enough to have kids we're going to have to live Unabomber style between the 15-18 danger zone.

[Last of the V8s]

Why release the kid's name?

oh and his photo https://archive.vn/Flzv4 (https://www.wfla.com/news/hillsborough-county/tampa-teen-accused-of-being-mastermind-behind-twitter-hack-that-targeted-high-profile-accounts/)

[Torque]

OT: WTF is it about Bitcoin entrepreneurs (and/or celebs) with their narcissistic heads stuck so far up their asses, that makes them think they have what it takes to run for President of U.S.A. ? 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/child-star-turned-millionaire-brock-155613028.html

Who is next? CSW? Roger Ver? Calvin Ayre?

[infofront]

He seems to have lived his life on his own terms.  That alone deserves respect.

Too bad he gave up on reality and started drinking the Kool-Aid. Happens to a lot of successful people, they think that just because they are successful at one thing they are experts in everything.

There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

Isaac Asimov (1980)

The "intellectuals" are almost exclusively of the far left wing political spectrum. Their bias is becoming increasingly obvious in the studies they produce. See the anti-HCQ study that was recently pulled from The Lancet. This causes people on the right to doubt nearly all scientific studies, for better or worse.

The right doesn't have a monopoly on "anti-intellectualism" though. See the aforementioned anti-HCQ activism on the left, for example, just because Donald Trump once remarked that it's a promising treatment.

Both sides are stupefied by their political convictions. I'm obviously to the right - maybe even far right. However, I'm going to keep wearing a mask, social distancing, and avoiding large crowds. And if I still somehow get the virus, I'm going to get ahold of HCQ.

[Searing]

Soooooo I have to grow some glasses??

Tis, a great mystery on how much BTC you HODL the more 'attractive' you become..(as seen from above nerds in the picture)....just something about

you get a certain amount of BTC and suddenly attractive females 'bend' to your tech prowess? That must be it, right? Can't be the cash if you sold your BTC

because as a HODL'er you never will. So logic would dictate that the above attractive females must have suddenly been struck by your mind and foresight

in HOLD'ing BTC.....yep, 'crypto prowess' that must be it.

[goldkingcoiner]

He seems to have lived his life on his own terms.  That alone deserves respect.

Too bad he gave up on reality and started drinking the Kool-Aid. Happens to a lot of successful people, they think that just because they are successful at one thing they are experts in everything.

There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

Isaac Asimov (1980)

The "intellectuals" are almost exclusively of the far left wing political spectrum. Their bias is becoming increasingly obvious in the studies they produce. See the anti-HCQ study that was recently pulled from The Lancet. This causes people on the right to doubt nearly all scientific studies, for better or worse.

The right doesn't have a monopoly on "anti-intellectualism" though. See the aforementioned anti-HCQ activism on the left, for example, just because Donald Trump once remarked that it's a promising treatment.

Both sides are stupefied by their political convictions. I'm obviously to the right - maybe even far right. However, I'm going to keep wearing a mask, social distancing, and avoiding large crowds. And if I still somehow get the virus, I'm going to get ahold of HCQ.

When I studied physics, I did not encounter those special snowflakes. They were all tucked away in the non science buildings like the "special" kid in class that they put in a corner with fingerpaints so he would not bother everyone else....

[Toxic2040]

some slight tweaking to short fibs  #dyor


1h zoomed...look at the consolidation..


1h


D zoomed out for perspective with focus on the SMMA ATH's by year...see below


Bitcoin is showing continued strength on the daily chart with the smoothed simple moving average ready to contest its ATH at $9,166.94 that was set on March 9th, 2018. Currently the SSMA is  at $8,863.61..well above the 2019 high of $8,790.89 set on September 23rd.

cookie monster smiles
D zoomed in

[Torque]

I cannot care less about what his opinion is on masks insofar as it's effect on whether or not I wear one.  That is my choice and I own the consequences.  On the other hand there is some theories solid proof that masks protect other more than the wearer.  In this regard I believe locally based laws and regs are appropriate.  And if you are breaking the law by not wearing one I think that too should be something one is ready to face the consequences of.

Masks are mostly about stopping the spread, not about protecting the wearer.

It's too bad "laws and regs" are required to prevent reckless endangerment of others.

Asymptomatic carriers who've been brainwashed by covid-denial/anti-mask propaganda don't suffer any consequences for the harm they're doing.

How about the death sentence if there is sufficient proof that your failure and refusal to wear a mask had caused the death of someone else?  Sound good?

A little extreme, perhaps.

This isn't cold-blooded premeditated murder in the first degree. It's more a case of manslaughter or even as low as criminal negligence causing death.

It is the result of stupidity, not malice.

Ten or twenty years should suffice.

It's also too bad that hundreds of thousands of George Floyd protesters around the globe spent about 1-1/2 to 2 months running around literally in each others faces *without* masks on, potentially (likely) infecting the rest of the population... and hardly anyone in the media said shit about it. The media down-played it and made excuses for it.

Because, ya'know, political agendas and all.  

Shall we go ahead with incarcerating the hundreds of thousands protesters worldwide, or do they all get a pass?

[strawbs]

Ooh.  Something is feeling kinda frisky...  Seeing action with a little bit of actual rising volume.

Coinbase Pro seeing pretty nice action... which makes me wonder... They don't usually lead the volume do they?

It's still a very popular on ramp; when coinbase leads I think it's very bullish (people moving fiat to exchanges)

I think so too. In 2017, when every 'friend of a friend who had heard I was into bitcoin' were phoning me, 9/10 of them had a newly opened Coinbase account.

[machasm]

Is that mindrust in the Kia?

Haha brilliant. Out of Merit but would have sent you x 10 for that, genuinely made me LOL.

Got you covered LFC.
I lolled too.

[TheJuice]

Ooh.  Something is feeling kinda frisky...  Seeing action with a little bit of actual rising volume.

Coinbase Pro seeing pretty nice action... which makes me wonder... They don't usually lead the volume do they?

It's still a very popular on ramp; when coinbase leads I think it's very bullish (people moving fiat to exchanges)

I think so too. In 2017, when every 'friend of a friend who had heard I was into bitcoin' were phoning me, 9/10 of them had a newly opened Coinbase account.

Interestingly, not that many "friends" coming out of the word work yet. It hasn't really hit mainstream news. Once we get closer to ATH im sure interest will pick up again. Until then a slow march up would be great.

[strawbs]

That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!

It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...

Done. The Scottish Highlands await you and your wife.  One day.....

[JayJuanGee]

That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!

It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...

OK. So.  We really just need the next stage of this bull flag to be confirmed.  I do not hate a pullback here, but I LOVE continuation!

You are describing some level of fuck you status.. even if you do not exactly specify what that is exactly.

So if you are saying a couple of years, then we are talking about this upcoming bullrun, that may well take less than 2 years to play out.

And, sure we could get $100k to $300k out of it, but since you have been sufficiently pessimistic, cAPSLOCK, I am suspecting that you are thinking that the $100k to $300k might not happen this time around.. .and surely, I am more than willing to go along with an overly conservative way of planning... accordingly, if the run has not happened yet, then my plans are really only going to pencil in a BTC price appreciation of about 6% per year... just to be conservative.

In other words, likely our thinking is similar in that regards, cAPSLOCK, even though we tend to outline our thinking in different ways... so I am speculating that you are thinking that $100k to $300k would be enough to obtain your fuck you status goal?

If you need another bull run for that, then "a few years" seems like the wrong time frame, and you likely would need to add another four years onto the 2 years that is  currently "scheduled" for our next bull run... yes, I am being a bit tongue in cheek regarding "scheduled" as a word choice because all of us longer term HODLers realize that these BTC price appreciation matters are far from guaranteed.

Hmm.. I think my ADD may have thrown you off.  There is no direct relationship between the first and second sentences.  The first is regarding a long term goal where someday I invite Strawbs to sit on my porch with my wife and myself and enjoy a couple beers from Maui Brewing while we watch the sun set behind Haleakala.

Fair enough.  I was not trying to stalk you regarding your lil visit, but I was still wondering if you were anticipating such visit in the next couple of years, or if you needed to add another 4 years to that, which would be 2025/26-ish.

Of course, you would need some time to make various transactions whether it is purchasing or buiilding arrangements before you would be likely to invite anyone over to your pad.

The second sentence is regarding the chart I posted which is the current hourly which depicts, in my opinion a bull flag that has already poked it's upward fronds in the direction I am hoping it heads this weekend.  Short term horizon.  And about that I mention that I am OK if we see a correction here and that was a fakeout, but I would prefer us to keep steaming up the hill since it's just more fun when number go up.

Seems like ongoingly decent upwards price pressures to me, but hey, we already know that sometimes momentum can change at a drop of a hat, so I would not be surprised either way... probably I put the odds of continuing up to be slightly greater than NOT.. but hey, I am in one of those 50/50-ish appraisals, currently.

And again your strange interpretation of pessimism on my part is something I still don't understand.  I mean i am not exactly the bull MicG is, but I am likely only a few steps down from his point of view.

Fair enough if I might be over-reading what seems to be either pessimism or conservatism... and each of us are within some kind of spectrum in terms of these principles, anyhow.  As I had mentioned before, I am largely intending to respond to the various ideas that you present rather than specifically trying to analyze your particulars...

As to F.U status...  Ehh... I dunno.  The numbers you lay out would be very nice.  I expect we will see those number eventually.

"Eventually" is a pretty vague framework. You likely realize that I am using various currently seemingly valid BTC price prediction models as for my framework, anyhow.. it is not like I have unique ideas in the BTC price prediction direction, except just kind of rambling on about my attempted interpretation of such and maybe to tweak probabilities here and there along the way in such manners that may well differ from other peeps who have a differing view of the assignment of probabilities matter or maybe differ in the timeframe matter.

So, sure in that regard, you might even call me more pessimistic than you cAPSLOCK (and therefore implicitly less bullish than micdude, but even micdude will appreciate that there are no guarantees in BTClandia regarding 100xing your money in a few years), because I take many of the longer term BTC price predictions with a decently large grain of salt.. and generally\, like, I said, I am penciling 6% per year BTC price appreciation, and anything beyond 6% per year is icing on the cake.. .. but I don't start putting in my orders for hookers, lambos and blow until after the BTC price has already gone up, rather than based on some kind of future fantastical BTC price that may or may not happen, in spite of the various seemingly ongoingly credible BTC price prediction models.

[edited out]

By the way.. one of the scenarios I think is an edge case for THIS bull is we see the REAL upward slope of the "S curve" where the demand for bitcoin drives it to 7 digits.  Like I say... edge case, but I think a real possibility... in the next couple years.

Pessimistic?

You are a bit ridiculous and hilarious at the same time, cAPSLOCK.

Why would it matter that you make some bullish statements here and there?  And, then proclaim that such bullish statements (because you deeply and sincerely believe them) cause you to NOT be pessimistic.



 

[d_eddie]

He seems to have lived his life on his own terms.  That alone deserves respect.

Too bad he gave up on reality and started drinking the Kool-Aid. Happens to a lot of successful people, they think that just because they are successful at one thing they are experts in everything.

 The reality is that many people successful or not don't like being told what to do regardless of the consequence.  I don't think there is any new Kool-Aid involved wrt the mask.  Sure, the science is out; the science is out on many things which we also ignore on a daily basis without any consideration.  Speeding, smoking, drinking alcohol, using drugs, unprotected sex, going to the Moon/Mars and not wearing your seat belt...  Some people are more inclined to take risks than others.
 
 I'm not going to condemn the man based on that one thing - it was his choice.  Maybe his death will serve as the motivation for others who are on the fence about wearing a mask to put one on; especially those who are in the "more susceptible" categories.

Or in the "close to someone in the more susceptible category" category.

What I've heard, and it made sense, is that wearing a mask helps 80% to keep the virus in (not infecting other people), but only like 20% to keep it out (not infecting oneself).

EDIT - Jimbo beat me to it!

[JL0]

From @filbfilb and Pullback coming ?

[cAPSLOCK]

Fair enough.  I was not trying to stalk you regarding your lil visit, but I was still wondering if you were anticipating such visit in the next couple of years, or if you needed to add another 4 years to that, which would be 2025/26-ish.

Of course, you would need some time to make various transactions whether it is purchasing or buiilding arrangements before you would be likely to invite anyone over to your pad.

Yeah... *sigh* in all reality it does not matter if bitcoin were to jump up to 10MM/per overnight.  I am slow and it would take some time for me to figure out how to get my sweet little up-country chalet (truly picturing a Hawaiian chalet).  I might just remain in my rickety old house that I have lived in for a couple decades now...  So much work moving to Hawaii...  Again. I am a simple man, and don't need much.  But the whiskey I would be drinking on my porch would be a few notches better.

[JayJuanGee]

If Bitcoin breaks through $14,000 (its highest peak since ATH), then there's a very good chance that we'll shoot up to $20,000 over the next weeks (if not days).

The sell walls between $14,000 and $20,000 are extremely weak, and another strong bullish run could easily see them smashed.

Oh?  No resistance expected in the $17,250 price arena?

As we can see by the recent influx of newly minted stablecoins (ala Tether, USD Coin, TrueUSD etc), there's definitely a bunch of new money moving into the market.

It's not just money being sucked from the shitcoinsaltcoins into Bitcoin, it's also a bunch of new retail investors getting into the market. This is what we need, and this is a large part of the reason why Bitcoin went stratospheric in 2017.

Could be.

i am not sure if retail is going to be driving this market, at least the first part of it... sure it is possible.. and also there seems to be quite a bit of institutional money coming in, too.

Difficult to know the cause(s) exactly, anyhow.. so I am willing to hold this question for a while without necessarily rushing into an answer.

Hopefully it happens sooner rather than later—it would be incredible to see Bitcoin hit a new all-time high this year. I think $100,000 is a bit optimistic (even under the best case scenario), but $20k-$40k is definitely within the realms of possibility.

Fair enough on that point.

[cAPSLOCK]

You are a bit ridiculous and hilarious at the same time, cAPSLOCK.

Why would it matter that you make some bullish statements here and there?  And, then proclaim that such bullish statements (because you deeply and sincerely believe them) cause you to NOT be pessimistic.



 

I am not sure I understand your question.  But I am most certainly bullish on bitcoin.  Very bullish.  And I believe that one of the next big moves will be very violent and leave many people behind... stunned in a cloud of dust... holding their fork and knife as the reality kicks in that dinner is already 20 miles away.


I relish the thought of the really big shorts being called.  Leveraged to the hilt.  And their accounts drained to the very bottom by the avalanche that is the biggest financial event that has happened in the history of man.  I wish no individual ill will, really.  But a time will come that Bitcoin leaves many on the sidelines.

It could be soon.  Or maybe not?

I have my popcorn.

[infofront]

Fair enough.  I was not trying to stalk you regarding your lil visit, but I was still wondering if you were anticipating such visit in the next couple of years, or if you needed to add another 4 years to that, which would be 2025/26-ish.

Of course, you would need some time to make various transactions whether it is purchasing or buiilding arrangements before you would be likely to invite anyone over to your pad.

Yeah... *sigh* in all reality it does not matter if bitcoin were to jump up to 10MM/per overnight.  I am slow and it would take some time for me to figure out how to get my sweet little up-country chalet (truly picturing a Hawaiian chalet).  I might just remain in my rickety old house that I have lived in for a couple decades now...  So much work moving to Hawaii...  Again. I am a simple man, and don't need much.  But the whiskey I would be drinking on my porch would be a few notches better.

Hawaii is my moonshot destination. It's quite expensive, as you know. Also, I think I'd prefer the big island over Maui. Large pieces of land are still available relatively inexpensively there. Also, the island is larger, with a slightly  larger variety of scenery. Maui is pretty incredible though - maybe the most beautiful place on earth.