Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Dollar shitshow incoming:

USA OUTLOOK CUT TO NEG FROM STABLE BY FITCH

“High fiscal deficits and debt were already on a rising medium-term path even before the onset of the huge economic shock precipitated by the coronavirus,” Fitch said.

A downgrade for the US would be catastrophic. It’s the end for the USD as world currency? 49 years since last default? Not bad...

If they (Fitch) try, they might be immediately raided by three letter agencies, which will seek to find some potential impropriety.
The only way the downgrade might happen if all 3 companies (Moody's, S&P's and Fitch) do it simultaneously, and even then it is a stretch.
Check out what happened before:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades

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[xhomerx10]

Why release the kid's name?

oh and his photo https://archive.vn/Flzv4 (https://www.wfla.com/news/hillsborough-county/tampa-teen-accused-of-being-mastermind-behind-twitter-hack-that-targeted-high-profile-accounts/)

 Obviously so you can see that he's not wearing a mask. 
I hope the 3 perps were socially distancing during the alleged hacking.

[JL0]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EePvDE6XYAEX6bu?format=png&name=large

[...]

From @filbfilb and Pullback coming ?

If you guarantee the outcome, I can trade it  

I can't because Bitcoin is unpredicted

[xhomerx10]

OT: WTF is it about Bitcoin entrepreneurs (and/or celebs) with their narcissistic heads stuck so far up their asses, that makes them think they have what it takes to run for President of U.S.A. ? 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/child-star-turned-millionaire-brock-155613028.html

Who is next? CSW? Roger Ver? Calvin Ayre?

 Only one of those last three was a natural born US citizen... but he renounced his citizenship.  Not that a minor detail like that would stand in CSW's way.  For all we know, he may have proof that he penned the original US Constitution or failing that holds several patents on it.

[philipma1957]

That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!

It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...

OK. So.  We really just need the next stage of this bull flag to be confirmed.  I do not hate a pullback here, but I LOVE continuation!

You are describing some level of fuck you status.. even if you do not exactly specify what that is exactly.

So if you are saying a couple of years, then we are talking about this upcoming bullrun, that may well take less than 2 years to play out.

And, sure we could get $100k to $300k out of it, but since you have been sufficiently pessimistic, cAPSLOCK, I am suspecting that you are thinking that the $100k to $300k might not happen this time around.. .and surely, I am more than willing to go along with an overly conservative way of planning... accordingly, if the run has not happened yet, then my plans are really only going to pencil in a BTC price appreciation of about 6% per year... just to be conservative.

In other words, likely our thinking is similar in that regards, cAPSLOCK, even though we tend to outline our thinking in different ways... so I am speculating that you are thinking that $100k to $300k would be enough to obtain your fuck you status goal?

If you need another bull run for that, then "a few years" seems like the wrong time frame, and you likely would need to add another four years onto the 2 years that is  currently "scheduled" for our next bull run... yes, I am being a bit tongue in cheek regarding "scheduled" as a word choice because all of us longer term HODLers realize that these BTC price appreciation matters are far from guaranteed.

where on earth is the money going to come from to go to 300000? in a few years.

...

... it is missing a factor that is key.  The accumulated world's worth is 50 to 100 trillion dollars.

BTC at 20 k in 2017 means. about 20,000 x 16.8 million = 336,000,000,000  336 billion is a  mere 0.336% to 0.672%  of the worlds wealth

the 10 wealthiest people  in 2016 had:

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2016/03/15/The-top-50-richest-people-in-the-world-5-reasons-why-they-re-successful-
1.   William [Bill] Gates III – $87.4 billion
2.   Amancio Ortega Gaona – $66.8 billion
3.   Warren Buffett – $60.7 billion
4.   Jeffrey Bezos – $56.6 billion
5.   David Koch – $47.4 billion
6.   Charles Koch – $46.8 billion
7.   Lawrence Ellison – $45.3 billion
8.   Mark Zuckerberg – $42.8 billion
9.   Michael Bloomberg – $42.1 billion
10.   Ingvar Kamprad – $39.3 billion

this adds to 543.5 billion  So you can argue if they get together and try to pump a coin to 20k they could.



But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.

this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

[d_eddie]

11.4 kiss kiss

[TheJuice]

11.4 kiss kiss

It's such a tease sometimes. 

[vapourminer]

Why release the kid's name?

oh and his photo https://archive.vn/Flzv4 (https://www.wfla.com/news/hillsborough-county/tampa-teen-accused-of-being-mastermind-behind-twitter-hack-that-targeted-high-profile-accounts/)

looks like he will be tried as an adult as florida allows that in this case. so even if hes a minor he is in pretty deep doodoo.

[vapourminer]

between the 15-18 danger zone.

why the late start?

[vapourminer]

When I studied physics, I did not encounter those special snowflakes. They were all tucked away in the non science buildings like the "special" kid in class that they put in a corner with fingerpaints so he would not bother everyone else....

back in my day the snowflakes were called the "short bus" kids.

[cAPSLOCK]

From @filbfilb and Pullback coming ?

I personally think flibfilb does some of the best technical analysis of the corn.  He and @DavetheWave are the two that I feel have a great handle on the market, and have both technical skills from, I'd guess a lot of stonk and macro analysis.

Filbfilb has had keen insight on fairly short timeframes, and DavetheWave has called the basic shape of things from a broad overview with great precision.  I think the scenario filbfilb is putting forth here has a lot of merit.  And it fits with Dave's overall map.  We certainly have room in the bigass triangle to do one more wobble before the big breakout.

But, if I had to bet, I would bet filbfilb is wrong this time.  I don't think we can take any more pressure...  but we'll see.

[Biodom]

One company (AAPL) is currently worth 1.85 tril
Five top companies are worth close to 7-8 tril
Gold is worth $11 tril (don't use old numbers of 8 tril!)

Why, exactly, we cannot be 20% of gold at $2 tril (around 100k/btc)?
Not sure how counting INDIVIDUALS net worth matters when it is a new asset class.
However, to each their own.
Everything is just a guess, really.

[JayJuanGee]

That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!

It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...

OK. So.  We really just need the next stage of this bull flag to be confirmed.  I do not hate a pullback here, but I LOVE continuation!

You are describing some level of fuck you status.. even if you do not exactly specify what that is exactly.

So if you are saying a couple of years, then we are talking about this upcoming bullrun, that may well take less than 2 years to play out.

And, sure we could get $100k to $300k out of it, but since you have been sufficiently pessimistic, cAPSLOCK, I am suspecting that you are thinking that the $100k to $300k might not happen this time around.. .and surely, I am more than willing to go along with an overly conservative way of planning... accordingly, if the run has not happened yet, then my plans are really only going to pencil in a BTC price appreciation of about 6% per year... just to be conservative.

In other words, likely our thinking is similar in that regards, cAPSLOCK, even though we tend to outline our thinking in different ways... so I am speculating that you are thinking that $100k to $300k would be enough to obtain your fuck you status goal?

If you need another bull run for that, then "a few years" seems like the wrong time frame, and you likely would need to add another four years onto the 2 years that is  currently "scheduled" for our next bull run... yes, I am being a bit tongue in cheek regarding "scheduled" as a word choice because all of us longer term HODLers realize that these BTC price appreciation matters are far from guaranteed.

where on earth is the money going to come from to go to 300000? in a few years.

If 50% or 60% of bitcoiners HODL their bitcoin, it does not take very much money to push the BTC price up.

And, sure of course, some people will likely want to sell some of their BTC along the way, so keeping the BTC price up might be another question, and that is why we seem to have cycles in bitcoinlandia...

Cycles are not anything new in bitcoin's more than 10 year price history; they are already historically seen and attempted to be accounted for in BTC's currently most relevant price prediction models.. namely: 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles.

...

... it is missing a factor that is key.  The accumulated world's worth is 50 to 100 trillion dollars.

BTC at 20 k in 2017 means. about 20,000 x 16.8 million = 336,000,000,000  336 billion is a  mere 0.336% to 0.672%  of the worlds wealth

the 10 wealthiest people  in 2016 had:

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2016/03/15/The-top-50-richest-people-in-the-world-5-reasons-why-they-re-successful-
1.   William [Bill] Gates III – $87.4 billion
2.   Amancio Ortega Gaona – $66.8 billion
3.   Warren Buffett – $60.7 billion
4.   Jeffrey Bezos – $56.6 billion
5.   David Koch – $47.4 billion
6.   Charles Koch – $46.8 billion
7.   Lawrence Ellison – $45.3 billion
8.   Mark Zuckerberg – $42.8 billion
9.   Michael Bloomberg – $42.1 billion
10.   Ingvar Kamprad – $39.3 billion

this adds to 543.5 billion  So you can argue if they get together and try to pump a coin to 20k they could.

But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.

this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

Of course, you are entitled to your opinion regarding how much upside potential there is. I am not necessarily counting on $50k to $300k, but all of that price range is reasonably within the realm of possibilities for this cycle and perhaps even up to $500k, given some of the recent sloppiness in money printing nonsense.

I personally see any BTC price accumulation that goes beyond 6% per year as icing on the cake for me, so I don't have any major problem if an exponential run does not materialize in the next couple of years (there would be a lot of disappointed BTC accumulators/HODLers, I know), even if there does seem to be a lot of shit in place such as money printing and other irresponsible monetary practices to cause such exponential run in the coming couple of years from what I can see from the price prediction models and also the surrounding circumstances that we find ourselves in.

One company (AAPL) is currently worth 1.85 tril
Five top companies are worth close to 7-8 tril
Gold is worth $11 tril (don't use old numbers of 8 tril!)

Why, exactly, we cannot be 20% of gold at $2 tril (around 100k/btc)?
Not sure how counting INDIVIDUALS net worth matters when it is a new asset class.
However, to each their own.
Everything is just a guess, really.

Not really guessing.., but an educated guess based on various probabilities and strong underlying sound money fundamentals that come with BTC... as far as I can see from what seems to be going on with kingdaddy and the seemingly asymmetrical bet that is ongoingly present with it.

[cAPSLOCK]

But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.


this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like.  For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.

[Hueristic]

 

Hi there,

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They are still trying. 

[Biodom]

We have 46.8 mil (give or take) $ millionaires in the world.
The article below states that there are only 25K people who own 89 (and above) btc, which is roughly $1 mil (currently).
https://medium.com/@BambouClub/are-you-in-the-bitcoin-1-a-new-model-of-the-distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-6adb0d4a6a95

Therefore, bitcoiners contribute a minuscule number to $ millionaires (if you convert bitcoiners btc to $ value).
BTC has to go to about 70K for the number of btc $ millionaires to reach 250K, which is still would be just about 0.5% of all millionaires.
BTC has to go to 200K for the number of btc millionaires to reach 1mil, which would be just 2% of the total number.

Conclusion: movement of btc to 200K would not significantly increase the number of wealthy people in the world (2% is basically a margin of error).
Therefore it is entirely possible to happen as there are no visible constrains as far as a significant increase in total number of wealthy vs general population.

[bitserve]

We have 46.8 mil (give or take) $ millionaires in the world.
The article below states that there are only 25K people who own 89 (and above) btc, which is roughly $1 mil (currently).
https://medium.com/@BambouClub/are-you-in-the-bitcoin-1-a-new-model-of-the-distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-6adb0d4a6a95

Therefore, bitcoiners contribute a minuscule number to $ millionaires (if you convert bitcoiners btc to $ value).
BTC has to go to about 70K for the number of btc $ millionaires to reach 250K, which is still would be just about 0.5% of all millionaires.
BTC has to go to 200K for the number of btc millionaires to reach 1mil, which would be just 2% of the total number.

Conclusion: movement of btc to 200K would not significantly increase the number of wealthy people in the world (2% is basically a margin of error).
Therefore it is entirely possible to happen as there are no visible constrains as far as a significant increase in total number of wealthy vs general population.

25K people with 89+ BTC? It sounds like a lot to me.... but what do I know.

[philipma1957]

But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.


this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like.  For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.

 

I have no issue with the short term idea of 50k late 2020 or early 2021
I just don't see it going much past it.

Most of us are wannabes and  not sitting on 1000btc or more.

Think of a top end guy seeing me come at him with my 100 btc stash. (100 x 300000 = 30 million) While he may have 5 billion I can cause him grief with my 30million.

So I listed the top 10 guys  I think there are 2000 billionaires.

lets argue they own 16 million btc.

and we the little guy owes a total of 2 million btc.  I propose then have a vested interest in not letting us catch up.

2 million x 11,000 = 22,000,000,000  22 billion

they have 8x that or 176 billion

yeah they want more since the average billionaire lives with the "nothing counts but more" motto


they absolutely will control the rise

bump to 55,000

the lower group now has 110 billion

they have 880 billion.  I believe they would not crash it out at that point. They have most of the coin and they can take profit but they don't have to.

move to 330,000 a coin

the lower group now has 660 billion

they have 5280 billion

certainly they would be really happy with 5280 billion vs the current 176 billion

I do think we that lower 1/9 of the coins would look to be a threat at this point.  They would sell off and not let us grow this high.

Since we would leave the working class and be the "new rich"

I suggest they cap this run at 50 k to 100 k   vs  250k to 330k.  Just so we that lower section do not get too independent.

I still think the 2020/2021 upside is 50-60k but what the fuck do I really know.

A) I don't have direct contact with the top coin holders
B) I don't have knowledge of the cover virus
C) I don't know the results of the 2020 election.

Just because I  the ultra rich would cap this to 50-60k does not mean I am correct.

  Those 2000 billionaires could be very diverse in their btc/crypto holdings.  If only 10 to 100 hold the coins it means they are passing 1900 to 1990 the billionaires so those billionaires could want to buy coins to maintain they places in the billionaire club.  That would mean they would not look at the lower 1/9 gaining as much as they would if the coins are more widely dispersed among them.
  
That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what.

at bitserve  see how many hold 1000.  if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number happens.

[Toxic2040]

seems pretty bullish to me  #dyor

Monthly

#stronghands

[infofront]

I personally think flibfilb does some of the best technical analysis of the corn.  He and @DavetheWave are the two that I feel have a great handle on the market, and have both technical skills from, I'd guess a lot of stonk and macro analysis.

Filbfilb has had keen insight on fairly short timeframes, and DavetheWave has called the basic shape of things from a broad overview with great precision.  I think the scenario filbfilb is putting forth here has a lot of merit.  And it fits with Dave's overall map.  We certainly have room in the bigass triangle to do one more wobble before the big breakout.

But, if I had to bet, I would bet filbfilb is wrong this time.  I don't think we can take any more pressure...  but we'll see.

Same. Aside from masterluc and maybe PlanB, those two are about the only T/A guys I follow. @davthewave's thesis is undoubtedly the most conservative of the bunch, as he doesn't forecast $100K until late 2023. His long-term forecast has been pretty accurate so far though, I'd say.
filb is not slouch either, having called the 2017 top far in advance, and also the eventual bottom.