Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fillippone]

Dollar shitshow incoming:

USA OUTLOOK CUT TO NEG FROM STABLE BY FITCH

“High fiscal deficits and debt were already on a rising medium-term path even before the onset of the huge economic shock precipitated by the coronavirus,” Fitch said.

A downgrade for the US would be catastrophic. It’s the end for the USD as world currency? 49 years since last default? Not bad...

[JayJuanGee]

Fair enough.  I was not trying to stalk you regarding your lil visit, but I was still wondering if you were anticipating such visit in the next couple of years, or if you needed to add another 4 years to that, which would be 2025/26-ish.

Of course, you would need some time to make various transactions whether it is purchasing or buiilding arrangements before you would be likely to invite anyone over to your pad.

Yeah... *sigh* in all reality it does not matter if bitcoin were to jump up to 10MM/per overnight.  I am slow and it would take some time for me to figure out how to get my sweet little up-country chalet (truly picturing a Hawaiian chalet).  I might just remain in my rickety old house that I have lived in for a couple decades now...  So much work moving to Hawaii...  Again. I am a simple man, and don't need much.  But the whiskey I would be drinking on my porch would be a few notches better.

If you are not actively figuring out the Maui logistics, then it is going to be quite difficult to relocate there.

A lot of people rent before they buy, so a few recognizance trips (maybe two weeks at a time) might be in order as preliminary steps.. might even cause you to decide a different location.. perhaps?

You are a bit ridiculous and hilarious at the same time, cAPSLOCK.

Why would it matter that you make some bullish statements here and there?  And, then proclaim that such bullish statements (because you deeply and sincerely believe them) cause you to NOT be pessimistic.



 

I am not sure I understand your question.  But I am most certainly bullish on bitcoin.  Very bullish.  And I believe that one of the next big moves will be very violent and leave many people behind... stunned in a cloud of dust... holding their fork and knife as the reality kicks in that dinner is already 20 miles away.


I relish the thought of the really big shorts being called.  Leveraged to the hilt.  And their accounts drained to the very bottom by the avalanche that is the biggest financial event that has happened in the history of man.  I wish no individual ill will, really.  But a time will come that Bitcoin leaves many on the sidelines.

It could be soon.  Or maybe not?

I have my popcorn.

I will let this portion of our back and forth exchange rest for now, and I do agree with you that there are pretty decent odds that some BTC shorters are going to get R33kt when they believe that they have employed enough capital to keep bitcoin in a certain "range."  They may not necessarily disclose the extent of their losses, but it is still likely that we will end up finding out about it, perhaps later.

[Biodom]

Fair enough.  I was not trying to stalk you regarding your lil visit, but I was still wondering if you were anticipating such visit in the next couple of years, or if you needed to add another 4 years to that, which would be 2025/26-ish.

Of course, you would need some time to make various transactions whether it is purchasing or buiilding arrangements before you would be likely to invite anyone over to your pad.

Yeah... *sigh* in all reality it does not matter if bitcoin were to jump up to 10MM/per overnight.  I am slow and it would take some time for me to figure out how to get my sweet little up-country chalet (truly picturing a Hawaiian chalet).  I might just remain in my rickety old house that I have lived in for a couple decades now...  So much work moving to Hawaii...  Again. I am a simple man, and don't need much.  But the whiskey I would be drinking on my porch would be a few notches better.

I've been to Maui...nice.
Interestingly, although RE prices are high, RE taxes are low (just 0.27%), so not much cash outlay after you buy.
Buy a couple, rent out the second unit...i have seen some people doing just that.
Weather is great, but sun shine is really getting to you, hence lots of 'leather skin' phenomenon.
Overall, a paradise, of course.

[TheJuice]

Dollar shitshow incoming:

USA OUTLOOK CUT TO NEG FROM STABLE BY FITCH

“High fiscal deficits and debt were already on a rising medium-term path even before the onset of the huge economic shock precipitated by the coronavirus,” Fitch said.

A downgrade for the US would be catastrophic. It’s the end for the USD as world currency? 49 years since last default? Not bad...

Not if we all hold btc and move to a more sensible standard.

[Wekkel]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EePvDE6XYAEX6bu?format=png&name=large

[...]

From @filbfilb and Pullback coming ?

If you guarantee the outcome, I can trade it 

[Biodom]

Dollar shitshow incoming:

USA OUTLOOK CUT TO NEG FROM STABLE BY FITCH

“High fiscal deficits and debt were already on a rising medium-term path even before the onset of the huge economic shock precipitated by the coronavirus,” Fitch said.

A downgrade for the US would be catastrophic. It’s the end for the USD as world currency? 49 years since last default? Not bad...

If they (Fitch) try, they might be immediately raided by three letter agencies, which will seek to find some potential impropriety.
The only way the downgrade might happen if all 3 companies (Moody's, S&P's and Fitch) do it simultaneously, and even then it is a stretch.
Check out what happened before:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_credit-rating_downgrades

[xhomerx10]

Why release the kid's name?

oh and his photo https://archive.vn/Flzv4 (https://www.wfla.com/news/hillsborough-county/tampa-teen-accused-of-being-mastermind-behind-twitter-hack-that-targeted-high-profile-accounts/)

 Obviously so you can see that he's not wearing a mask. 
I hope the 3 perps were socially distancing during the alleged hacking.

[JL0]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EePvDE6XYAEX6bu?format=png&name=large

[...]

From @filbfilb and Pullback coming ?

If you guarantee the outcome, I can trade it  

I can't because Bitcoin is unpredicted

[xhomerx10]

OT: WTF is it about Bitcoin entrepreneurs (and/or celebs) with their narcissistic heads stuck so far up their asses, that makes them think they have what it takes to run for President of U.S.A. ? 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/child-star-turned-millionaire-brock-155613028.html

Who is next? CSW? Roger Ver? Calvin Ayre?

 Only one of those last three was a natural born US citizen... but he renounced his citizenship.  Not that a minor detail like that would stand in CSW's way.  For all we know, he may have proof that he penned the original US Constitution or failing that holds several patents on it.

[philipma1957]

That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!

It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...

OK. So.  We really just need the next stage of this bull flag to be confirmed.  I do not hate a pullback here, but I LOVE continuation!

You are describing some level of fuck you status.. even if you do not exactly specify what that is exactly.

So if you are saying a couple of years, then we are talking about this upcoming bullrun, that may well take less than 2 years to play out.

And, sure we could get $100k to $300k out of it, but since you have been sufficiently pessimistic, cAPSLOCK, I am suspecting that you are thinking that the $100k to $300k might not happen this time around.. .and surely, I am more than willing to go along with an overly conservative way of planning... accordingly, if the run has not happened yet, then my plans are really only going to pencil in a BTC price appreciation of about 6% per year... just to be conservative.

In other words, likely our thinking is similar in that regards, cAPSLOCK, even though we tend to outline our thinking in different ways... so I am speculating that you are thinking that $100k to $300k would be enough to obtain your fuck you status goal?

If you need another bull run for that, then "a few years" seems like the wrong time frame, and you likely would need to add another four years onto the 2 years that is  currently "scheduled" for our next bull run... yes, I am being a bit tongue in cheek regarding "scheduled" as a word choice because all of us longer term HODLers realize that these BTC price appreciation matters are far from guaranteed.

where on earth is the money going to come from to go to 300000? in a few years.

...

... it is missing a factor that is key.  The accumulated world's worth is 50 to 100 trillion dollars.

BTC at 20 k in 2017 means. about 20,000 x 16.8 million = 336,000,000,000  336 billion is a  mere 0.336% to 0.672%  of the worlds wealth

the 10 wealthiest people  in 2016 had:

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2016/03/15/The-top-50-richest-people-in-the-world-5-reasons-why-they-re-successful-
1.   William [Bill] Gates III – $87.4 billion
2.   Amancio Ortega Gaona – $66.8 billion
3.   Warren Buffett – $60.7 billion
4.   Jeffrey Bezos – $56.6 billion
5.   David Koch – $47.4 billion
6.   Charles Koch – $46.8 billion
7.   Lawrence Ellison – $45.3 billion
8.   Mark Zuckerberg – $42.8 billion
9.   Michael Bloomberg – $42.1 billion
10.   Ingvar Kamprad – $39.3 billion

this adds to 543.5 billion  So you can argue if they get together and try to pump a coin to 20k they could.



But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.

this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

[d_eddie]

11.4 kiss kiss

[TheJuice]

11.4 kiss kiss

It's such a tease sometimes. 

[vapourminer]

Why release the kid's name?

oh and his photo https://archive.vn/Flzv4 (https://www.wfla.com/news/hillsborough-county/tampa-teen-accused-of-being-mastermind-behind-twitter-hack-that-targeted-high-profile-accounts/)

looks like he will be tried as an adult as florida allows that in this case. so even if hes a minor he is in pretty deep doodoo.

[vapourminer]

between the 15-18 danger zone.

why the late start?

[vapourminer]

When I studied physics, I did not encounter those special snowflakes. They were all tucked away in the non science buildings like the "special" kid in class that they put in a corner with fingerpaints so he would not bother everyone else....

back in my day the snowflakes were called the "short bus" kids.

[cAPSLOCK]

From @filbfilb and Pullback coming ?

I personally think flibfilb does some of the best technical analysis of the corn.  He and @DavetheWave are the two that I feel have a great handle on the market, and have both technical skills from, I'd guess a lot of stonk and macro analysis.

Filbfilb has had keen insight on fairly short timeframes, and DavetheWave has called the basic shape of things from a broad overview with great precision.  I think the scenario filbfilb is putting forth here has a lot of merit.  And it fits with Dave's overall map.  We certainly have room in the bigass triangle to do one more wobble before the big breakout.

But, if I had to bet, I would bet filbfilb is wrong this time.  I don't think we can take any more pressure...  but we'll see.

[Biodom]

One company (AAPL) is currently worth 1.85 tril
Five top companies are worth close to 7-8 tril
Gold is worth $11 tril (don't use old numbers of 8 tril!)

Why, exactly, we cannot be 20% of gold at $2 tril (around 100k/btc)?
Not sure how counting INDIVIDUALS net worth matters when it is a new asset class.
However, to each their own.
Everything is just a guess, really.

[JayJuanGee]

That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!

It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...

OK. So.  We really just need the next stage of this bull flag to be confirmed.  I do not hate a pullback here, but I LOVE continuation!

You are describing some level of fuck you status.. even if you do not exactly specify what that is exactly.

So if you are saying a couple of years, then we are talking about this upcoming bullrun, that may well take less than 2 years to play out.

And, sure we could get $100k to $300k out of it, but since you have been sufficiently pessimistic, cAPSLOCK, I am suspecting that you are thinking that the $100k to $300k might not happen this time around.. .and surely, I am more than willing to go along with an overly conservative way of planning... accordingly, if the run has not happened yet, then my plans are really only going to pencil in a BTC price appreciation of about 6% per year... just to be conservative.

In other words, likely our thinking is similar in that regards, cAPSLOCK, even though we tend to outline our thinking in different ways... so I am speculating that you are thinking that $100k to $300k would be enough to obtain your fuck you status goal?

If you need another bull run for that, then "a few years" seems like the wrong time frame, and you likely would need to add another four years onto the 2 years that is  currently "scheduled" for our next bull run... yes, I am being a bit tongue in cheek regarding "scheduled" as a word choice because all of us longer term HODLers realize that these BTC price appreciation matters are far from guaranteed.

where on earth is the money going to come from to go to 300000? in a few years.

If 50% or 60% of bitcoiners HODL their bitcoin, it does not take very much money to push the BTC price up.

And, sure of course, some people will likely want to sell some of their BTC along the way, so keeping the BTC price up might be another question, and that is why we seem to have cycles in bitcoinlandia...

Cycles are not anything new in bitcoin's more than 10 year price history; they are already historically seen and attempted to be accounted for in BTC's currently most relevant price prediction models.. namely: 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles.

...

... it is missing a factor that is key.  The accumulated world's worth is 50 to 100 trillion dollars.

BTC at 20 k in 2017 means. about 20,000 x 16.8 million = 336,000,000,000  336 billion is a  mere 0.336% to 0.672%  of the worlds wealth

the 10 wealthiest people  in 2016 had:

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2016/03/15/The-top-50-richest-people-in-the-world-5-reasons-why-they-re-successful-
1.   William [Bill] Gates III – $87.4 billion
2.   Amancio Ortega Gaona – $66.8 billion
3.   Warren Buffett – $60.7 billion
4.   Jeffrey Bezos – $56.6 billion
5.   David Koch – $47.4 billion
6.   Charles Koch – $46.8 billion
7.   Lawrence Ellison – $45.3 billion
8.   Mark Zuckerberg – $42.8 billion
9.   Michael Bloomberg – $42.1 billion
10.   Ingvar Kamprad – $39.3 billion

this adds to 543.5 billion  So you can argue if they get together and try to pump a coin to 20k they could.

But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.

this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

Of course, you are entitled to your opinion regarding how much upside potential there is. I am not necessarily counting on $50k to $300k, but all of that price range is reasonably within the realm of possibilities for this cycle and perhaps even up to $500k, given some of the recent sloppiness in money printing nonsense.

I personally see any BTC price accumulation that goes beyond 6% per year as icing on the cake for me, so I don't have any major problem if an exponential run does not materialize in the next couple of years (there would be a lot of disappointed BTC accumulators/HODLers, I know), even if there does seem to be a lot of shit in place such as money printing and other irresponsible monetary practices to cause such exponential run in the coming couple of years from what I can see from the price prediction models and also the surrounding circumstances that we find ourselves in.

One company (AAPL) is currently worth 1.85 tril
Five top companies are worth close to 7-8 tril
Gold is worth $11 tril (don't use old numbers of 8 tril!)

Why, exactly, we cannot be 20% of gold at $2 tril (around 100k/btc)?
Not sure how counting INDIVIDUALS net worth matters when it is a new asset class.
However, to each their own.
Everything is just a guess, really.

Not really guessing.., but an educated guess based on various probabilities and strong underlying sound money fundamentals that come with BTC... as far as I can see from what seems to be going on with kingdaddy and the seemingly asymmetrical bet that is ongoingly present with it.

[cAPSLOCK]

But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.


this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like.  For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.

[Hueristic]

 

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They are still trying.