Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Syke]

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.

Price goes up when buyers buy more than sellers sell. It has *nothing* to do with "incoming" money. Market cap is meaningless.

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[cAPSLOCK]

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.

Price goes up when buyers buy more than sellers sell. It has *nothing* to do with "incoming" money. Market cap is meaningless.

Exactly what I was attempting to say.

[cAPSLOCK]

But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.


this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like.  For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.

 

I have no issue with the short term idea of 50k late 2020 or early 2021
I just don't see it going much past it.

Most of us are wannabes and  not sitting on 1000btc or more.

Think of a top end guy seeing me come at him with my 100 btc stash. (100 x 300000 = 30 million) While he may have 5 billion I can cause him grief with my 30million.

So I listed the top 10 guys  I think there are 2000 billionaires.

lets argue they own 16 million btc.

and we the little guy owes a total of 2 million btc.  I propose then have a vested interest in not letting us catch up.

2 million x 11,000 = 22,000,000,000  22 billion

they have 8x that or 176 billion

yeah they want more since the average billionaire lives with the "nothing counts but more" motto


they absolutely will control the rise

bump to 55,000

the lower group now has 110 billion

they have 880 billion.  I believe they would not crash it out at that point. They have most of the coin and they can take profit but they don't have to.

move to 330,000 a coin

the lower group now has 660 billion

they have 5280 billion

certainly they would be really happy with 5280 billion vs the current 176 billion

I do think we that lower 1/9 of the coins would look to be a threat at this point.  They would sell off and not let us grow this high.

Since we would leave the working class and be the "new rich"

I suggest they cap this run at 50 k to 100 k   vs  250k to 330k.  Just so we that lower section do not get too independent.

I still think the 2020/2021 upside is 50-60k but what the fuck do I really know.

A) I don't have direct contact with the top coin holders
B) I don't have knowledge of the cover virus
C) I don't know the results of the 2020 election.

Just because I  the ultra rich would cap this to 50-60k does not mean I am correct.

  Those 2000 billionaires could be very diverse in their btc/crypto holdings.  If only 10 to 100 hold the coins it means they are passing 1900 to 1990 the billionaires so those billionaires could want to buy coins to maintain they places in the billionaire club.  That would mean they would not look at the lower 1/9 gaining as much as they would if the coins are more widely dispersed among them.
  
That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what.

at bitserve  see how many hold 1000.  if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number happens.

This is so fun I read it 3 times.  I have NO IDEA what you are talking about though.

[Gigi69]

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

While it's true that smaller sums of money can have big impacts on market caps, in the long run it is most suitable to look at market cap as 'real value', especially in a liquid system with many participants such as bitcoin.


By the way Philiphma, your estimate of total global wealth is 50 to 100 trillion usd.  A quick google search tells me it is more in the 300 to 400 trillion range.

[philipma1957]

But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.


this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like.  For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.

 

I have no issue with the short term idea of 50k late 2020 or early 2021
I just don't see it going much past it.

Most of us are wannabes and  not sitting on 1000btc or more.

Think of a top end guy seeing me come at him with my 100 btc stash. (100 x 300000 = 30 million) While he may have 5 billion I can cause him grief with my 30 million.

So I listed the top 10 guys  I think there are 2000 billionaires.
lets argue they own 16 million btc and we the little guy own a total of 2 million btc.  I propose they have a vested interest in not letting us catch up.

2 million x 11,000 = 22,000,000,000  22 billion
They have 8x that or 176 billion

Yeah they want more since the average billionaire lives with the "nothing counts but more" motto

They absolutely will control the rise so a
bump to 55,000 is allowed to happen

The lower group now has 110 billion
The top level now has 880 billion.  
I believe they the top owners would not crash it out at that point. They have most of the coin and they can take profit but they don't have to.

  If we move to 330,000 a coin the lower group now has 660 billion
They the top group have 5280 billion  Almost certainly they would be really happy with 5280 billion vs the current 176 billion.

The problem is I do think we that lower 1/9 of the coins would look to be a threat at this point.  They would sell off and not let us grow this high.

     Since we would leave the working class and be the "new rich"
  I suggest they cap this run at 50 k to 100 k   vs  250k to 330k.  Just so we that lower section do not get too independent and or too rich.

I still think the 2020/2021 upside is 50-60k but what the fuck do I really know.

A) I don't have direct contact with the top coin holders
B) I don't have knowledge of the cover virus
C) I don't know the results of the 2020 election.

Just because I  think the ultra rich would cap this to 50-60k does not mean I am correct.

 
   Those 2000 billionaires could be very diverse in their btc/crypto holdings.  If only 10 to 100 hold the coins it means they are passing the other  1900 to 1990 the billionaires so those billionaires could want to buy coins to maintain their places in the billionaire club.  That would mean they would not look at the lower 1/9 gaining as much as they would if the coins are more widely dispersed among them.
  
That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what.



at bitserve  see how many hold 1000 coins or more if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number of 250,000 to 500,000 happens.

This is so fun I read it 3 times.  I have NO IDEA what you are talking about though.

   I write James Joyce stream of consciousness style. It often needs corrections.
I corrected it in the quote above.
I like technical analysis , but I often go completely outside that box as it lacks the parameters that I mention above.  

I am merely have a bit of fun here as I still am hoping my 50-60k guess is too low.


Looks like 215 to 325 trillion dollars  not 50 trillion

so  .5%-1% is   1.62 -  3.25 trillion which means to guess 75000 to 150000 is not that crazy.

would be nice.

[Hueristic]

By the way Philiphma, your estimate of total global wealth is 50 to 100 trillion usd.  A quick google search tells me it is more in the 300 to 400 trillion range.

Well to be fair with all the Brrrrr going on he was probably correct when he started typing that post.

[cAPSLOCK]

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?

[jojo69]

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

[jbreher]

It is going to be difficult to HODL if the price hits $100,000 or close to that range during the bull phase this time. How many of you will sell nothing & be happy to sit through another long crypto winter? Surely everybody is going to take life changing money out this time?

End of 17 I saw as a blowoff top. I'd felt them pop since $32. Pretty much knew what was in store. So I sold, in order to buy My Personal Lambo^[tm].





...


...
... A single-digit percentage.

$100K will not faze me.

[jbreher]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/07/30/as-the-bitcoin-price-soars-bitcoins-real-crypto-market-dominance-is-revealed/

Excluding lots of the most weird shitcoins gives a dominance of over 90% already. 

Slippery slope there. If you are going to use as your principle 'things trying to be money', there is an argument to factor in USD, Euro, etc.

[jbreher]

Got my new hat for the occasion of crossing $11,000 and staying up there in the past 48 hours. Which is always a nice sight upon it's self.
Thanks goes to xhomerx10 on it and it took him no time at all since were still holding stronger above $11k.

Hi rdbase,
 How about now?

avatar-sized

Now just waiting to say ShAzAm! while wearing this snazzy hat so we can cross the ATH soon.

Nice work.

[Gigi69]

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?

TX i try PI 4

[cAPSLOCK]

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?

TX i try PI 4

This is a pretty good little package but might be more s/w than you want.  Quite well put together in my opinion... but do your own due dillgence:

https://github.com/rootzoll/raspiblitz

I run that on the 4Gig pi 4.

[Gigi69]

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?

TX i try PI 4

This is a pretty good little package but might be more s/w than you want.  Quite well put together in my opinion... but do your own due dillgence:

https://github.com/rootzoll/raspiblitz

I run that on the 4Gig pi 4.

Ok i look. You node setting up easy on this?

[cAPSLOCK]

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?

TX i try PI 4

Well and I want to point out.. you can run one on a desktop, or a laptop.  Hell I still have one running in a docker instance on a QNAP NAS.  I ought shut that silly thing down...

[marcus_of_augustus]

... well you guys certainly have a penchant for regurgitating the well-studied obvious, and missing some key points.

... but you are only considering (capital) stock to incoming flow (demand), you need to do stock-to-flow properly (including for mining supply).

(hint: bitcoin price in USD on mid-longer term time scales is basically bound by fiat-incoming versus fiat-value of coins being produced)

... ummm, just go and read PlanB's stock-to-flow work, and then start to talk like you know something.

But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion  that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.

The pump is harder.

4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth

I would argue  that shift can't happen in less than 10 years.   12-18 months is a no go.

I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000

Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.

If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.


this is from another post.

the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.

it got close to .5% in 2017

I simply do not see it going past 1%  or maybe 40-60k

But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point.  This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game.  As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion.  How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion?  I do not believe the answer is 800billion.  Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.

I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...

I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like.  For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?

If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.

 

I have no issue with the short term idea of 50k late 2020 or early 2021
I just don't see it going much past it.

Most of us are wannabes and  not sitting on 1000btc or more.

Think of a top end guy seeing me come at him with my 100 btc stash. (100 x 300000 = 30 million) While he may have 5 billion I can cause him grief with my 30 million.

So I listed the top 10 guys  I think there are 2000 billionaires.
lets argue they own 16 million btc and we the little guy own a total of 2 million btc.  I propose they have a vested interest in not letting us catch up.

2 million x 11,000 = 22,000,000,000  22 billion
They have 8x that or 176 billion

Yeah they want more since the average billionaire lives with the "nothing counts but more" motto

They absolutely will control the rise so a
bump to 55,000 is allowed to happen

The lower group now has 110 billion
The top level now has 880 billion.  
I believe they the top owners would not crash it out at that point. They have most of the coin and they can take profit but they don't have to.

  If we move to 330,000 a coin the lower group now has 660 billion
They the top group have 5280 billion  Almost certainly they would be really happy with 5280 billion vs the current 176 billion.

The problem is I do think we that lower 1/9 of the coins would look to be a threat at this point.  They would sell off and not let us grow this high.

     Since we would leave the working class and be the "new rich"
  I suggest they cap this run at 50 k to 100 k   vs  250k to 330k.  Just so we that lower section do not get too independent and or too rich.

I still think the 2020/2021 upside is 50-60k but what the fuck do I really know.

A) I don't have direct contact with the top coin holders
B) I don't have knowledge of the cover virus
C) I don't know the results of the 2020 election.

Just because I  think the ultra rich would cap this to 50-60k does not mean I am correct.

 
   Those 2000 billionaires could be very diverse in their btc/crypto holdings.  If only 10 to 100 hold the coins it means they are passing the other  1900 to 1990 the billionaires so those billionaires could want to buy coins to maintain their places in the billionaire club.  That would mean they would not look at the lower 1/9 gaining as much as they would if the coins are more widely dispersed among them.
  
That case could and would allow for a crazy jump in price. I better hodl till 2021 no matter what.



at bitserve  see how many hold 1000 coins or more if it is smaller by far maybe the crazy number of 250,000 to 500,000 happens.

This is so fun I read it 3 times.  I have NO IDEA what you are talking about though.

   I write James Joyce stream of consciousness style. It often needs corrections.
I corrected it in the quote above.
I like technical analysis , but I often go completely outside that box as it lacks the parameters that I mention above.  

I am merely have a bit of fun here as I still am hoping my 50-60k guess is too low.


Looks like 215 to 325 trillion dollars  not 50 trillion

so  .5%-1% is   1.62 -  3.25 trillion which means to guess 75000 to 150000 is not that crazy.

would be nice.

[cAPSLOCK]

Hello, what you recommend use for a Bitcoin Node?  AWS or ANKR?

Actually a raspberry pi 4 works pretty good.  Those other two are gonna cost you 3 digits a month.

But I guess if you are wanting a fast pipe and the best uptime?

TX i try PI 4

This is a pretty good little package but might be more s/w than you want.  Quite well put together in my opinion... but do your own due dillgence:

https://github.com/rootzoll/raspiblitz

I run that on the 4Gig pi 4.

Ok i look. You node setting up easy on this?

Super easy... hardest part is waiting for the blockchain to download.  That is also why you need the Pi 4, and the extra ram helps.

[jbreher]

What I've heard, and it made sense, is that wearing a mask helps 80% to keep the virus in (not infecting other people), but only like 20% to keep it out (not infecting oneself).

That may be true. A mask can restrict how far you might be spewing.

But a respirator is not the same thing as a mask.

Due to my assiduous rotation plan, I have enough N95 respirators to hold for the foreseeable future. I'll happily wear one in public.

Still think the governor is overstepping his authority to demand all must be masked.

[jbreher]

But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it.  It will rise Z when X value is put in.

Price goes up when buyers buy more than sellers sell. It has *nothing* to do with "incoming" money. Market cap is meaningless.

  At the risk of uttering a tautology, exactly as much bitcoin is bought as the amount that is sold.