JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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February 01, 2021, 04:47:39 PM |
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Sometimes it can be good to revisit..and surely each of us have our moments of doubts or even conservative projections - so there are quite a few of us who are sufficiently prepared for UPpity but continue to maintain relatively conservative price projections.. and I recently updated my expectations that the 208-week moving average (which is now about $8,400) will move up 10% to 12% per year rather than my previous consideration of 6% per year (and I was not using the 208-week moving average previously either, I was merely using some kind of a seat of my pants anticipation of the bottom, bottom). Also when the BTC price dipped from $6k to nearly $3k in November/December 2018 - I conceded that we had entered into a bear market - even though such bear market did not really last too long .. which surely I am going to admit forever that I am a bit of a lagging indicator, as well... .. but still even as a lagging indicator, since about late 2014, I have not really been inadequately peepared for UPpity - even though I do recall having a few panic (kind of like FOMO) moments at various points in 2015 and 2016, and I kind of claim to have been cured of some of my FOMO/panic in early 2017 and likely due to some of my own loss of funds due to hackers and likely my own security lackadaisicalness. |
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Torque
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February 01, 2021, 04:54:02 PM |
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d_eddie
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February 01, 2021, 04:55:09 PM |
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Everyone says stupid shit from time to time. None of us are immune from the occasional moment of stupidity, his are just very public. The fact is, he is changing the world the same way BTC is. You have to give him credit for that at the very least. I'm with lightfoot on the open source thing though. It's my ass being driven around, I'd like to know what the driver is "thinking". It will likely never happen though. I see two reasons off the top of my mind. 1. Keeping trade secrets. This could seem moot, given that actual production has a deep moat - high entry level, but think of copycat Chinese factories. Tesla knockoffs at 1/3 the price? 2. Regulation. This is much tougher. Once the car is smart enough to mind speed limits etc. for you, do you think traffic authorities will be keen to give up that level of control? Let you hack the "engine" at your will? Forget it. I see your point, and I like the idea of Open Source, but I don't think you will be able to really know what the driver is "thinking"... Having access to code does not mean one can easily understand it, especially if it's complex code. Sometimes I have difficulty understanding my own code, written maybe a year before. And my code is full of carefully written comments and documentation, so beautiful it's almost a work of art. But if it's very complex, it won't be so easy to run it in your head and understand it fully. Usually, Open Source relies on larger entities, like universities or research institutions, auditing and evaluating the code, which is OK, but you'll still be relying on others to tell you what the driver is "thinking", to the best of their abilities... IMHO, it's not likely to happen, for many reasons, some of which you've already outlined. Yes, I have no hope to be able to understand the code in its entirety. A team of smart people, spread around the world, could manage to find bugs, make improvements etc., like most open source communities do. My hope to see what the driver is "thinking" didn't even extend to a communal/emerging understanding of such a huge, complicated OS. Small improvements in the auto braking system... hacking the current flow to allow for smoother operation, or more powerful/uncontrollable acceleration... small things like that is what I had in mind. Not things like disregarding one way streets, traffic lights or zebra crossings. However, I'll bet most of the higher level functions are based on deep learning, so access to the code without the huge training data is probably pointless. One can dream though... |
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lightfoot
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I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)
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February 01, 2021, 05:15:02 PM |
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2. Regulation. This is much tougher. Once the car is smart enough to mind speed limits etc. for you, do you think traffic authorities will be keen to give up that level of control? Let you hack the "engine" at your will? Forget it.
Whelp...... The "motor" itself is not that complicated. Multiphase electric motor with vector control if I recall. One could probably build a controller for it with some high power IGBTs and get moderately reasonable levels of performance. So tear out the Tesla stuff and put in something else. Is that "illegal"? Hopefully not: I can take the gas motor out of a car and replace it with a propane motor and happily drive it around. Or a lawnmower engine of sufficient size. Now an interesting question is the sales agreement: Do they sell you the car, or lease it to you with stipulations that you can't reverse engineer any of it. Hm. When the first Teslas finally go for 5k with blown batteries I may check into this. Rip out all of the Musk smell and put in my own system. That could be interesting. |
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Torque
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February 01, 2021, 05:20:07 PM |
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Phil_S
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We choose to go to the moon
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February 01, 2021, 05:21:03 PM |
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Small improvements in the auto braking system... hacking the current flow to allow for smoother operation, or more powerful/uncontrollable acceleration... small things like that is what I had in mind. Not things like disregarding one way streets, traffic lights or zebra crossings.
Even if they'll allow you to read the source code... They'll never allow you to upload your own unsigned code into the system. |
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JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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February 01, 2021, 05:28:31 PM Merited by OutOfMemory (1) |
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WSB was announcing (physical) Silver stock $SLV as the next target AFTER the short squeeze. On reddit they emphasize how important it is not to get distracted from $GME. BTC seems to be chopped to the range $33.xxx No market manipulation involved *duck*#hodlersunaffected  >>>>>>No market manipulation involved *duck*<<<<<< You are referring to speculations about manipulation in bitcoin, right? I am going to assert that there is always some market manipulation attempted whether we are talking about bitcoin or other asset classes., that's how free markets work.. So maybe there could be questions about fractional reserves in bitcoin and various kinds of financial tools that are used like that, but then the questions would regard whether such financial tools are being used excessively and in a way that actually allows them to get away with exercising excessive control over BTC's price, and if so, we might find that some of the manipulator attempts could end up getting squeezed into a place that they would not want to be.. just like GME shorters were squeezed (except without having any BIG daddy to save them)... and that could hurt quite a bit.. I am sure that such squeezes have already happened in BTC at various points when BIG players try to overly play their hands and end up NOT being able to stifle the trend.. I am pretty sure that I have witnessed such BTC price movements at various times that seemed to have been contrary to what the more powerful players wanted.. but they could not stop the momentum (an idea whose time has come).. and downwardly manipulators can sometimes end up getting punished pretty badly if they have no one to run to in order to save their wee lil pretentious asses from overplaying their hands. |
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Tash
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Pro financial, medical liberty
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February 01, 2021, 05:35:23 PM Merited by JayJuanGee (1) |
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The moment there is any kind of serious price movement any mine which has been dormant for years will be revisited and people will start digging again any mine operating now will have triple quadruple shifts, any pawn shop, second hand deal will start dedusting the junk which stood around for years and years, people been investing and talked into by Peter Schiff and his shills to get some as its undervalued, they watch with eagle eyes ready to finally dump. If things would go really crazy people would just go to the nearest shop buy some silver cutlery and take it strait to the bullion dealer for quick profit. Shops would not re-adjust price fast enough to new crazy price. People would remember granny's old whatever and start searching in roof-space, cellar, garage to cash in on the bonanza. Just about anyone has some junk silver to sell, number of people with right stock is small and most not selling in a hurry because they know at some stage shorters have to close and buy to do so. 50 years of gold siver ratio  Robinhood is broke |
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Torque
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February 01, 2021, 05:42:09 PM |
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The moment there is any kind of serious price movement any mine which has been dormant for years will be revisited and people will start digging again any mine operating now will have triple quadruple shifts, any pawn shop, second hand deal will start dedusting the junk which stood around for years and years, people been investing and talked into by Peter Schiff and his shills to get some as its undervalued, they watch with eagle eyes ready to finally dump. If things would go really crazy people would just go to the nearest shop buy some silver cutlery and take it strait to the bullion dealer for quick profit. Shops would not re-adjust price fast enough to new crazy price. People would remember granny's old whatever and start searching in roof-space, cellar, garage to cash in on the bonanza. Just about anyone has some junk silver to sell, number of people with right stock is small and most not selling in a hurry because they know at some stage shorters have to close and buy to do so. Incidentally what you describe is exactly what happened in 2010-2011. I even heard stories that dealers were going door to door asking people if they had any silver they wanted to sell (not sure if true tho). |
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d_eddie
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February 01, 2021, 05:50:00 PM |
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In your opinion, what are they using this extra cash for? - Paying interest on borrowed (shorted) stock. - Actually unrolling the shorts and buying up, swallowing losses (but the price apparently drifts down, therefore unlikely). - Reinstating some of the long positions they unrolled to pay up last week. - Playing tricks (short ladders) trying to push down the price, hoping to ultimately win - but at the same time adding rope to be hanged with if they fail. - Something I haven't thought of, which is probably even more devious. |
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Paashaas
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February 01, 2021, 05:50:50 PM |
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Torque
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February 01, 2021, 05:59:43 PM |
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In your opinion, what are they using this extra cash for? - Paying interest on borrowed (shorted) stock. - Actually unrolling the shorts and buying up, swallowing losses (but the price apparently drifts down, therefore unlikely). - Reinstating some of the long positions they unrolled to pay up last week. - Playing tricks (short ladders) trying to push down the price, hoping to ultimately win - but at the same time adding rope to be hanged with if they fail. - Something I haven't thought of, which is probably even more devious. They claim the $2.4B ask was because the clearing house hit them up with a $3B bill for extra reserve collateral. Which they then claim that they negotiated down it to a mere $700M. To that I would then ask, "So what was the other $1.7B needed for then? Hmmm?"  |
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JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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February 01, 2021, 06:04:29 PM |
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We're not cheerleaders. Most of us are like 95% in bitcoin.
How could you say that? People are going to tend to be all over the place, no? Surely, the longer term BTC HODLers have seemed to have tended to end up becoming quite highly allocated in bitcoin due to bitcoin's ongoing price appreciation so long that they continued to error on the side of HODLing and stacking sats, so if longer term HODLers do not sell very large portions of their BTC stashenings, the value of those BTC holdings end up occupying a decently large percentage of their overall assets and value. so perhaps there is some truth in your statement, Phil_S?.. and I personally never did strive for any high allocation in bitcoin but I really have not found any justification for diversifying out of bitcoin along the way, either... There are some folks who do get excited about making certain kinds of purchases that may or may not hold their value very well or may end up being money pits (such as real estate or even certain kinds of other luxury transportation or other ways to improve their quality of life or even investing in themselves in various ways) so yeah, even very modest allocations of 1% to 10% in bitcoin in bygone years (the longer the more significant the build up of value) could have ended up building up to something in the 90%+ territories of BTC allocation.... I am largely guilty.. even though I did end up buying (building) some real estate at a pretty inopportune time when a decently large portion of the bills ended up coming due right at the bottom of the 2018 downward cycle.. .. but I did not end up losing too many BTC in that whole process.. even though I could have tried to play that a bit better and a wee bit less rushed in the way that I carried that out... but such decisions(and actions) did liberate me in some ways, too... |
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d_eddie
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February 01, 2021, 06:07:23 PM |
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In your opinion, what are they using this extra cash for? - Paying interest on borrowed (shorted) stock. - Actually unrolling the shorts and buying up, swallowing losses (but the price apparently drifts down, therefore unlikely). - Reinstating some of the long positions they unrolled to pay up last week. - Playing tricks (short ladders) trying to push down the price, hoping to ultimately win - but at the same time adding rope to be hanged with if they fail. - Something I haven't thought of, which is probably even more devious. They claim the $2.4B ask was because the clearing house hit them up with a $3B bill for extra reserve collateral. Which they then claim that they negotiated down it to a mere $700M. To that I would then ask, "So what was the other $1.7B needed for then? Hmmm?" "We weren't sure they'd get us off the hook for the remaining 1.7B" (Hypothetical reply, just to keep you going. I still am not clear what you think is going on.) |
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Torque
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February 01, 2021, 06:08:38 PM |
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Torque
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February 01, 2021, 06:10:36 PM |
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(Hypothetical reply, just to keep you going. I still am not clear what you think is going on.)
Probably all the shenanigans you posted, plus others that we pleebs aren't privy to. |
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Biodom
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February 01, 2021, 06:23:51 PM |
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hey, what is 'fyre money'-is this re FIRE?
if yes, check out the fire boards on reddit, especially r/fatfire (there is also r/finalcialindependence, r/leanfire and r/obesefire).
the level of opulence and a sense of "it will always be as good as it is right now" is something to observe.
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bitserve
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Self made HODLER ✓
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February 01, 2021, 06:38:23 PM |
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What I don't really get is how RH has been able to get an additional $3BILLION as if it were peanuts. More so assuming they probably lost many of their user base... or maybe not, people is stupid. Oh wait, that also answer my first question I guess.
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Biodom
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February 01, 2021, 06:44:20 PM |
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What I don't really get is how RH has been able to get an additional $3BILLION as if it were peanuts. More so assuming they probably lost many of their user base... or maybe not, people is stupid. Oh wait, that also answer my first question I guess.
'cause 'they' keep doubling down. |
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