Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[600watt]

For whatever reason you have to sell, having a strategy set up in advance is never a bad thing. Trying to match the top is far more difficult than predicting the bottom (e.g. 200W MA) in my opinion. For that reason, a sell ladder can be a good strategy. It's automatic and it won't cause you stress trying to match the exact top.

I personally sold some coins between $30-40k to reinvest in real-estate. I could have held them longer for more fiat gains, but I had a strategy set up a long time ago and I held on to it. No regrets.

Right now I have no need for more fiat, so I have no further plans to sell anything.

I have had this same plan personally. I could have been a billionaire if I held on to all of my coins. Sounds tragic but I am just as happy being a decamillionaire . On one hand, you never know for sure what it may reach, on the other, you want some gains in-between. Make a plan that you can accept the consequences of whichever way it goes.

woah. does "deca" imply between 10 and 100 mil USD?  also congrats, well played.

[d_eddie]

Off topic: GME's shorts are still not covered by far (50%), and a delay of weeks is to be considered, before hedgies will cover. They covered about 2% on friday, as it seems, and the price rose by a tad under 20%. Coincidence?

Maybe it's a coincidence; maybe not. What I can say is that Friday, as the previous Wednesday, the NYSE disallowed shorting that stock at prices lower than the best bid. This 'circuit breaker' rule is triggered whenever a stock's price declines over 10%. It is meant to allow "real" long sellers to sell their long stocks before "fake" (short) sellers can push the price further down. It was established by the SEC in 2010.

https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-26.htm

[Krubster]

Damn thats a lot of money to give away tho , im wondering how he feel by now!

I don't think he has to worry, he is probably set for life. Gavin was the lead developer for bitcoin for a while, after satoshi stepped down.

[dieselmeister]

yesterday round about 2,7k in coins were flown out from the  F2Pool. That not a peak, but is much more that usualy (see the small things in december.)

The upper peak was ~14,3k

[600watt]

I hope that you are not suffering too much, LFC... with that cold iron fist of yours.

There surely is some value with delayed gratification.. and yeah, there could be a bit of a dilemma for some HODLers regarding the extent to which a wee bit of shaving off could be prudent - and yeah, we don't really feel like a blow off top or anything like that, even though many of us had been  thinking that $40k or $50k-ish would be good areas to sell decent amounts of stash.. but many of us are not feeling so inclined in these here days... for some reason.. not feeling like the cycle has run.. and it seems still early.. we are like in the early to mid - 2017s rather than the late 2017s.. so it seems.. and gosh, could we be in the early 2013s so deserving two blow off tops in this cycle with the second blow off top obviously playing out as a 5 to 10x BIGGER one.. ?  

I am not going to say.. even though I have some theories that are floating in the decent odds categorizations... feelings... oh oh oh .. feelings...

I finally have a sell strategy, after all these years. I set up a spreadsheet with a sell ladder. I’m not going to go too deep into it but my sells start about $10,000 north from the current price & continue every $5,000 (roughly) until we hit $250,000.

Nothing goes as you plan it perfectly but at least I have a starting point now.

I’d like to continue HODLING at least 25% of my stash long term.

Let’s see how this cycle plays out

I'm still not sure whether I'll start selling at $50k or should I move my sell orders to $75-80 area. So far I'm ready to sell at $50k but it won't last long. I guess I will wait until the end of the month or so. Institutions must try harder to get my coins, dammit!    

I also think I will keep some 25%-50% of my stash at least for one more cycle. I will NEVER sell my entire stash and become a nocoiner!  

selling BTC for what? Gold? OK (IMO) if you are a bit over invested in BTC. Silver? OK, for our U.S. friends because most of them think silver cannot be confiscated. FIAT? Not OK (IMO) just in case you really need some to buy other things.

Why not selling for FIAT? Why do all the stocks, real estate, land, commodities etc. increase in price? It's not because their value is increasing all the time. But the value of FIAT is decreasing all the time therefore the price of the others in FIAT is increasing. think about it.

very refreshing to observe that the sentiment in WO has changed a bit. it used to be "what is the best exit strategy on cycle top?"

to " never sell ALL your coins"


i am flip flopping between selling only some, keeping basically 90% or so. or selling 50% to 80% of stash, hopefully close to the top.

this is hard to decide. in my case, and i am sure others are in the same boat, it is the single most important financial decision of my life - so far.

going through a multiyear 80% correction without having sold any is gut wrenching. i have done it twice and promised myself, not to do this again.

the little problem with this promise is, that ... well ... this time it could be different^TM. Either this run up or the next one will be, imho, the one where bitcoin reaches escape velocity. there will still be corrections but no 80% multiyear suffering.

worst outcome is sell all and then price does another 2x or more and does not come back. you did not hodl all the years to fold just short of the finish line.

i played around with laddering. start at 80k and sell up to 50% of stash until 400k in little steps.

but: selling means trading the best money ever for dirty fiat that is getting debased to the point it crashes completely.

best outcome would be: price runs up, fiat semi-collapses and all the world wakes up and all they want is bitcoin to trade for their villas or lambos. then bitcoiners would not need to sell.

this "should i sell, and if yes, how much and when" is a game that we will not have to play forever. within this decade, maybe even in the first half, this question will be answered for good: hodl!


this year is the year where we will have to play this thing right. good to have a forum where we can discuss.

[Torque]

This dodge pump is starting to piss me off.

It's distracting, and completely, brainlessly retarded.

Kudos to folk profiting from it, but it just boggles my mind at how fucking idiotic crypto-Twitter is on doge right now.

On the plus side, all roads lead to King Corn, so, I guess that is OK.

As we move into this next phase of Bitcoin, there will be many more distractions like this.

The dumb money will get distracted and taken by pump-n-dump scams, while the smart money will be quietly accumulating Bitcoin on the down low.

Whale traders don't want Average Joe to buy Bitcoin at the bottom... they want them to chase it right before or at the blow off top.

You can't save stupid.

[Torque]

Why not selling for FIAT? Why do all the stocks, real estate, land, commodities etc. increase in price? It's not because their value is increasing all the time. But the value of FIAT is decreasing all the time therefore the price of the others in FIAT is increasing. think about it.

This is exactly correct. Anything going up in price is really just retaining it's value and outrunning inflation vs. the continual debasement of fiat currency.

The trick is to find the deflationary asset that is accelerating in value faster than/relative to the other deflationary assets over long time frames.

Bitcoin is currently that asset. Hands down, it has trounced every other asset in price appreciation over the last decade.

So why would I trade the fastest horse in the race, for a slower-but-still-fast horse?

And why would I ever trade the fastest horse for the sad, retarded horse that broke both its front legs right out of the gate? (FIAT)

[Indymoney]

Big moves happening around as price going high

[True Myth]

Got drunk and put some more random lines on the random lined chart. 

Posting my projection in the event that I hit a .0005% chance of being correct so I can pretend I knew everything all along.

Breakout above ATH on February 14th with a price target of $48,500.

I think I'm going to start making projections when I'm drunk more often...

[Slot Kid]

Big moves happening around as price going high

Interesting, many people predicted a small dip after breaking 40k again BEFORE we have a proper assault on the ATH. We seem to be on calm water at this moment. I feel a big move up is close, I just don’t know when, possibly a week or so after the Chinese New Year.

Keep stackin’ sats.

I have been saving for 18 months, I am nearly at 2.1BTC which is a lot of money in my country. I know some of you people have much more but I am proud I nearly made to 2.1BTC, it is significant as a value with the 21,000,000 cap.

Thanks for reading - Slot Kid.

[vroom]

Nah, she'll do the rapid anus COV test, it's unisex , insta-results, 100% guaranteed. Only $99.99!

The anal Covid test is for free  

good one, but NEVER do this while climbing up a tree:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4GjytdY9dw

 

or on TV https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7USaBkHt8o

[JayJuanGee]

Just an 'aside' for those of you who HODL your Bitcoin no matter what through at least 2020 till today.

Price of Bitcoin on March 13th, 2020, when 'everything' dumped, stock market, BTC Crypto, on the realization that Covid-19 Pandemic was the 'real-deal'!

Anyway, the price of Bitcoin on 3/13/2020 (if briefly) was: $4,916.78 USD.

Could you 'imagine' being in the position of 'panic dumping' your BTC HODL/HOARD on that date and revisiting such a 'decision' today?

Current Bitcoin Price Now: $38, 612.43 (see www.coinmarketcap.com) (use profile post time on this post)

Ack! The Horror! Ack!

Brad

Current BTC Market Status

What a diptwat image that does not even reflect the reality of our current bitcoin price dynamic situation.

Have you actually looked at the charts, Sayeds56?

Do you understand what you are looking at?

We are actually floating at the top of the BTC price range.  Yesterday weighed in with a top three all time weighted average.. top three.. that is surely nothing to sneeze at.  Do you understand that?    

Sure, the price might go down from here, but it is quite obviously NOT heading down in any kind of meaningful way or anywhere close to a bear market.  Perhaps wake me up if we go below $25k in the coming 3-6 months, and I might reconsider.. perhaps... gotta zoom out a bit, Sayeds56, and not get distracted by either short-term BTC price movements or various kinds of nonsensical pump and dump price behaviors in various shitcoins.

I speculate that part of your problem is that you might be comparing bitcoin to some charts of various shitcoins, and that is likely a BIG ASS distraction rather than considering where bitcoin is actually at in reality rather than your lil fantasy hopium for the BTC price to go down that may or may not happen.

[El duderino_]

[friends1980]

Just an 'aside' for those of you who HODL your Bitcoin no matter what through at least 2020 till today.

Price of Bitcoin on March 13th, 2020, when 'everything' dumped, stock market, BTC Crypto, on the realization that Covid-19 Pandemic was the 'real-deal'!

Anyway, the price of Bitcoin on 3/13/2020 (if briefly) was: $4,916.78 USD.

Could you 'imagine' being in the position of 'panic dumping' your BTC HODL/HOARD on that date and revisiting such a 'decision' today?

Current Bitcoin Price Now: $38, 612.43 (see www.coinmarketcap.com) (use profile post time on this post)

Ack! The Horror! Ack!

Brad

Current BTC Market Status

What a diptwat image that does not even reflect the reality of our current bitcoin price dynamic situation.

Have you actually looked at the charts, Sayeds56?

Do you understand what you are looking at?
(...)

Just another shitposter.

edit: dude received some merits by accident after posting shit a while ago, and believes he's struck gold with that formula.

[IntroVert]

Apologies if a link to this video has been provided previously.

Michael Saylor/Ross Stevens bitcoin discussion at the MicroStrategy conference. Ross is a very eloquent speaker and made few points that should help companies on the fence see the light.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA_fI-wUqnw

The same video is available at MicroStrategy website as well.

[JayJuanGee]

As a maximalist myself, it's going to be interesting to to see how this unfolds from the sideline.

Is that really an accurate assessment of where you are at?  You are really on the "sidelines" in respect to bitcoin?

I doubt it.

Sure you can be invested in a kind of way that makes you feel a bit dispassionate about the BTC price direction, or you can feel comfort that there is quite a bit of solidness in your bitcoin investment.  For example, I feel pretty good that I can sell whatever quantity of bitcoin that I want, so long as the BTC price is above $5k, so in that regard, I retain a certain degree of confidence that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the short term or even in the longer term.. NOT 100% confidence, but a damned lot of confidence.

I have also become so bold as to convert myself into using the 208-week moving average (which is currently at about $8,500) as my measure of confidence that the BTC price will not go below such price levels in either the short term or even in the longer term and placing a kind of expectation that the 208-week moving average is likely to continue to increase by 10% to 12% per year. 

So, yeah, I am feeling more and more cock-sured confidence in my BTC investment, but I surely do not feel as if I am on the sidelines in regards to watching various other shit products trying to act as if they are bitcoin 2.0 or whatever scams they are ongoingly pulling to attempt to topple the king (king daddy that is).  Don't get me wrong also.  I don't even feel any particular strong allegiance to bitcoin as an investment, but part of the issue remains there is nothing even close to bitcoin as a long term investment or coming close to toppling it.  If there were, I would not mind diversifying some or all of my investment into such superior investment if there were such a thing.. but there is not.. so fuck all the others claiming to be... and I (personally) do not consider my lil selfie to be "on the sidelines" in regards to my watching their ongoing seemingly shenanigan performances.

[JSRAW]

Okay so everyone sharing their so called exit strategy so here is mine. Enjoy and DYOR 

[Krubster]

very refreshing to observe that the sentiment in WO has changed a bit. it used to be "what is the best exit strategy on cycle top?"

to " never sell ALL your coins"


i am flip flopping between selling only some, keeping basically 90% or so. or selling 50% to 80% of stash, hopefully close to the top.

this is hard to decide. in my case, and i am sure others are in the same boat, it is the single most important financial decision of my life - so far.

going through a multiyear 80% correction without having sold any is gut wrenching. i have done it twice and promised myself, not to do this again.

the little problem with this promise is, that ... well ... this time it could be different^TM. Either this run up or the next one will be, imho, the one where bitcoin reaches escape velocity. there will still be corrections but no 80% multiyear suffering.

worst outcome is sell all and then price does another 2x or more and does not come back. you did not hodl all the years to fold just short of the finish line.

i played around with laddering. start at 80k and sell up to 50% of stash until 400k in little steps.

but: selling means trading the best money ever for dirty fiat that is getting debased to the point it crashes completely.

best outcome would be: price runs up, fiat semi-collapses and all the world wakes up and all they want is bitcoin to trade for their villas or lambos. then bitcoiners would not need to sell.

this "should i sell, and if yes, how much and when" is a game that we will not have to play forever. within this decade, maybe even in the first half, this question will be answered for good: hodl!


this year is the year where we will have to play this thing right. good to have a forum where we can discuss.

I've been struggling with the same thoughts. Going through multi-year bear markets with 80% decline without taking any profits is indeed brutal. But is it safe to think we will see a similar decline this time? It's possible, but it's nothing to take for granted.

I'm leaning on towards selling maybe 25% of my total stash, in hopes of buying back cheaper. But it's a big chance of selling to early and missing the opportunity to buy back at a lower price.

I find the charts at https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/ particularly helpful for predicting market cycles.

This chart for example is very easy to understand. A strategy here could be to start your ladder selling when the price is entering the red area, and buying back when it's in the green area.

[lightfoot]

I think there's another dimension people should think about when investing: Time. But not in the compounding sense.

Every day that goes by you get a day older and the black train of death gets one day closer to you. So when thinking about hanging on till later when your stash will be "worth more" remember that when that more day comes you will be older and would have lost forever the time you could have spent enjoying something or someone while deferring the experience.

For example: I bought a used Porsche 3 years ago with 2btc. $6,000. I could have saved the bitcoins and had $80,000 now but I would not have had those three years of fun and smiles and enjoying driving the car. That to me is worth a lot, especially given that I am 3 years closer to being dead, and that time can't be bought for any price (yes, life extension at the end is possible, but I think the value of years 30-33 is a lot higher than 90-93. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see).

So if you're going to sell coins, do it for things that will bring good experiences to your lives, good people to your lives, or good memories to your lives. That way if the price moons you will still have enjoyed those experiences/peoples/memories and feel pretty good about the whole thing.

I'm just glad I only bought an ounce of gold with bitcoins @800. That was stupid. However the 18k watch chain for 1btc has given me a lot of use and pleasure so that's not quite as big of a flub (and an eternal friend with the antique shop owner :-)

[Krubster]

As a maximalist myself, it's going to be interesting to to see how this unfolds from the sideline.

Is that really an accurate assessment of where you are at?  You are really on the "sidelines" in respect to bitcoin?

I doubt it.

Sure you can be invested in a kind of way that makes you feel a bit dispassionate about the BTC price direction, or you can feel comfort that there is quite a bit of solidness in your bitcoin investment.  For example, I feel pretty good that I can sell whatever quantity of bitcoin that I want, so long as the BTC price is above $5k, so in that regard, I retain a certain degree of confidence that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the short term or even in the longer term.. NOT 100% confidence, but a damned lot of confidence.

I have also become so bold as to convert myself into using the 208-week moving average (which is currently at about $8,500) as my measure of confidence that the BTC price will not go below such price levels in either the short term or even in the longer term and placing a kind of expectation that the 208-week moving average is likely to continue to increase by 10% to 12% per year.  

So, yeah, I am feeling more and more cock-sured confidence in my BTC investment, but I surely do not feel as if I am on the sidelines in regards to watching various other shit products trying to act as if they are bitcoin 2.0 or whatever scams they are ongoingly pulling to attempt to topple the king (king daddy that is).  Don't get me wrong also.  I don't even feel any particular strong allegiance to bitcoin as an investment, but part of the issue remains there is nothing even close to bitcoin as a long term investment or coming close to toppling it.  If there were, I would not mind diversifying some or all of my investment into such superior investment if there were such a thing.. but there is not.. so fuck all the others claiming to be... and I (personally) do not consider my lil selfie to be "on the sidelines" in regards to my watching their ongoing seemingly shenanigan performances.

No, not at all. I meant on the sidelines in regards to Etherum. I'm all-in when it comes to bitcoin. The entire post I replied to was about ETH, but this was the part in particular I was replying to when I said it was going to be interesting to see how it unfolds.

in a few decades ETH will be completely forgotten, some obscure technical dead-end street. but vitalik buterin will be remembered forever for his wonderful contribution to the bitcoin community.