Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[IntroVert]

Apologies if a link to this video has been provided previously.

Michael Saylor/Ross Stevens bitcoin discussion at the MicroStrategy conference. Ross is a very eloquent speaker and made few points that should help companies on the fence see the light.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA_fI-wUqnw

The same video is available at MicroStrategy website as well.

[1714092768]

1714092768

[1714092768]

1714092768

[1714092768]

1714092768

[1714092768]

1714092768

[JayJuanGee]

As a maximalist myself, it's going to be interesting to to see how this unfolds from the sideline.

Is that really an accurate assessment of where you are at?  You are really on the "sidelines" in respect to bitcoin?

I doubt it.

Sure you can be invested in a kind of way that makes you feel a bit dispassionate about the BTC price direction, or you can feel comfort that there is quite a bit of solidness in your bitcoin investment.  For example, I feel pretty good that I can sell whatever quantity of bitcoin that I want, so long as the BTC price is above $5k, so in that regard, I retain a certain degree of confidence that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the short term or even in the longer term.. NOT 100% confidence, but a damned lot of confidence.

I have also become so bold as to convert myself into using the 208-week moving average (which is currently at about $8,500) as my measure of confidence that the BTC price will not go below such price levels in either the short term or even in the longer term and placing a kind of expectation that the 208-week moving average is likely to continue to increase by 10% to 12% per year. 

So, yeah, I am feeling more and more cock-sured confidence in my BTC investment, but I surely do not feel as if I am on the sidelines in regards to watching various other shit products trying to act as if they are bitcoin 2.0 or whatever scams they are ongoingly pulling to attempt to topple the king (king daddy that is).  Don't get me wrong also.  I don't even feel any particular strong allegiance to bitcoin as an investment, but part of the issue remains there is nothing even close to bitcoin as a long term investment or coming close to toppling it.  If there were, I would not mind diversifying some or all of my investment into such superior investment if there were such a thing.. but there is not.. so fuck all the others claiming to be... and I (personally) do not consider my lil selfie to be "on the sidelines" in regards to my watching their ongoing seemingly shenanigan performances.

[JSRAW]

Okay so everyone sharing their so called exit strategy so here is mine. Enjoy and DYOR 

[Krubster]

very refreshing to observe that the sentiment in WO has changed a bit. it used to be "what is the best exit strategy on cycle top?"

to " never sell ALL your coins"


i am flip flopping between selling only some, keeping basically 90% or so. or selling 50% to 80% of stash, hopefully close to the top.

this is hard to decide. in my case, and i am sure others are in the same boat, it is the single most important financial decision of my life - so far.

going through a multiyear 80% correction without having sold any is gut wrenching. i have done it twice and promised myself, not to do this again.

the little problem with this promise is, that ... well ... this time it could be different^TM. Either this run up or the next one will be, imho, the one where bitcoin reaches escape velocity. there will still be corrections but no 80% multiyear suffering.

worst outcome is sell all and then price does another 2x or more and does not come back. you did not hodl all the years to fold just short of the finish line.

i played around with laddering. start at 80k and sell up to 50% of stash until 400k in little steps.

but: selling means trading the best money ever for dirty fiat that is getting debased to the point it crashes completely.

best outcome would be: price runs up, fiat semi-collapses and all the world wakes up and all they want is bitcoin to trade for their villas or lambos. then bitcoiners would not need to sell.

this "should i sell, and if yes, how much and when" is a game that we will not have to play forever. within this decade, maybe even in the first half, this question will be answered for good: hodl!


this year is the year where we will have to play this thing right. good to have a forum where we can discuss.

I've been struggling with the same thoughts. Going through multi-year bear markets with 80% decline without taking any profits is indeed brutal. But is it safe to think we will see a similar decline this time? It's possible, but it's nothing to take for granted.

I'm leaning on towards selling maybe 25% of my total stash, in hopes of buying back cheaper. But it's a big chance of selling to early and missing the opportunity to buy back at a lower price.

I find the charts at https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/ particularly helpful for predicting market cycles.

This chart for example is very easy to understand. A strategy here could be to start your ladder selling when the price is entering the red area, and buying back when it's in the green area.

[lightfoot]

I think there's another dimension people should think about when investing: Time. But not in the compounding sense.

Every day that goes by you get a day older and the black train of death gets one day closer to you. So when thinking about hanging on till later when your stash will be "worth more" remember that when that more day comes you will be older and would have lost forever the time you could have spent enjoying something or someone while deferring the experience.

For example: I bought a used Porsche 3 years ago with 2btc. $6,000. I could have saved the bitcoins and had $80,000 now but I would not have had those three years of fun and smiles and enjoying driving the car. That to me is worth a lot, especially given that I am 3 years closer to being dead, and that time can't be bought for any price (yes, life extension at the end is possible, but I think the value of years 30-33 is a lot higher than 90-93. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see).

So if you're going to sell coins, do it for things that will bring good experiences to your lives, good people to your lives, or good memories to your lives. That way if the price moons you will still have enjoyed those experiences/peoples/memories and feel pretty good about the whole thing.

I'm just glad I only bought an ounce of gold with bitcoins @800. That was stupid. However the 18k watch chain for 1btc has given me a lot of use and pleasure so that's not quite as big of a flub (and an eternal friend with the antique shop owner :-)

[Krubster]

As a maximalist myself, it's going to be interesting to to see how this unfolds from the sideline.

Is that really an accurate assessment of where you are at?  You are really on the "sidelines" in respect to bitcoin?

I doubt it.

Sure you can be invested in a kind of way that makes you feel a bit dispassionate about the BTC price direction, or you can feel comfort that there is quite a bit of solidness in your bitcoin investment.  For example, I feel pretty good that I can sell whatever quantity of bitcoin that I want, so long as the BTC price is above $5k, so in that regard, I retain a certain degree of confidence that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the short term or even in the longer term.. NOT 100% confidence, but a damned lot of confidence.

I have also become so bold as to convert myself into using the 208-week moving average (which is currently at about $8,500) as my measure of confidence that the BTC price will not go below such price levels in either the short term or even in the longer term and placing a kind of expectation that the 208-week moving average is likely to continue to increase by 10% to 12% per year.  

So, yeah, I am feeling more and more cock-sured confidence in my BTC investment, but I surely do not feel as if I am on the sidelines in regards to watching various other shit products trying to act as if they are bitcoin 2.0 or whatever scams they are ongoingly pulling to attempt to topple the king (king daddy that is).  Don't get me wrong also.  I don't even feel any particular strong allegiance to bitcoin as an investment, but part of the issue remains there is nothing even close to bitcoin as a long term investment or coming close to toppling it.  If there were, I would not mind diversifying some or all of my investment into such superior investment if there were such a thing.. but there is not.. so fuck all the others claiming to be... and I (personally) do not consider my lil selfie to be "on the sidelines" in regards to my watching their ongoing seemingly shenanigan performances.

No, not at all. I meant on the sidelines in regards to Etherum. I'm all-in when it comes to bitcoin. The entire post I replied to was about ETH, but this was the part in particular I was replying to when I said it was going to be interesting to see how it unfolds.

in a few decades ETH will be completely forgotten, some obscure technical dead-end street. but vitalik buterin will be remembered forever for his wonderful contribution to the bitcoin community.

[True Myth]

I think there's another dimension people should think about when investing: Time. But not in the compounding sense.

Every day that goes by you get a day older and the black train of death gets one day closer to you. So when thinking about hanging on till later when your stash will be "worth more" remember that when that more day comes you will be older and would have lost forever the time you could have spent enjoying something or someone while deferring the experience.

For example: I bought a used Porsche 3 years ago with 2btc. $6,000. I could have saved the bitcoins and had $80,000 now but I would not have had those three years of fun and smiles and enjoying driving the car. That to me is worth a lot, especially given that I am 3 years closer to being dead, and that time can't be bought for any price (yes, life extension at the end is possible, but I think the value of years 30-33 is a lot higher than 90-93. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see).

So if you're going to sell coins, do it for things that will bring good experiences to your lives, good people to your lives, or good memories to your lives. That way if the price moons you will still have enjoyed those experiences/peoples/memories and feel pretty good about the whole thing.

I'm just glad I only bought an ounce of gold with bitcoins @800. That was stupid. However the 18k watch chain for 1btc has given me a lot of use and pleasure so that's not quite as big of a flub (and an eternal friend with the antique shop owner :-)

Love this perspective.  This is what separates the people laying on their death bed with happy supporting friends and family around them and no personal regrets vs the dying grouchy old fucks trying to figure out how to hold on to every last penny they have or gain more before they die.

[philipma1957]

Big moves happening around as price going high

Interesting, many people predicted a small dip after breaking 40k again BEFORE we have a proper assault on the ATH. We seem to be on calm water at this moment. I feel a big move up is close, I just don’t know when, possibly a week or so after the Chinese New Year.

Keep stackin’ sats.

I have been saving for 18 months, I am nearly at 2.1BTC which is a lot of money in my country. I know some of you people have much more but I am proud I nearly made to 2.1BTC, it is significant as a value with the 21,000,000 cap.

Thanks for reading - Slot Kid.

well 1/10,000,000 of the worlds supply is very good.

the world has 8,000,000,000 so you should have about 0.002625BTC so you are 800x better then a fair and equal share.

[sirazimuth]

.....

Thanks for reading - Slot Kid.

Congrats....

Pro tip...don't mention the height of your stack.

[Elwar]

Price crashing.

Is this the end of cryptography?

[dieselmeister]

Did some idiot start his selling bot? Who was it? It's Sunday no fiat flow into an exchange for me.

[JimboToronto]

Good morn Bitcoinland.
Three seven nine seven five
(Bitcoinaverage).

Fight for forty grand
Is just barely beginning
Hold on to your hats.

It's time to move up.
Past the dirty thirties and
On to all time highs.

# /HaikuMode
____

Regarding the "selling" (actually spending) of Bitcoin:

There are two types of assets, appreciating and depreciating.

Bitcoin, land, fine art, and productive businesses (including tools) are appreciating assets.

Structures, new cars, hookers, blow and fiat currencies are depreciating assets.

Condominiums are a bad investment because they consist mostly of a depreciating asset (structure) with minimal appreciating asset (land). Add to that ridiculous "maintenance" fees and the fact you can't do what you want with your own property (in some places you cant even choose your own curtains or paint) and condos become an especially bad investment.

It's far better to buy a large tract of land with minimal structure, save a lot of money and have the freedom to do what you want with your property (within government restrictions). Of course you should pay cash. Paying compound interest for a mortgage or other financing negates the value of any investment.

Likewise, when you drive a new car off the lot, you suffer an immediate loss on your investment. If you live somewhere where you absolutely must drive a car, buy a good used vehicle for cash from a motivated seller and maybe you can resell it later for a higher price than you paid.

Trading an appreciating asset like Bitcoin for a depreciating asset like fiat currencies is just pain stupid unless it's to immediately flip the fiat for an appreciating asset or necessity.

Personally, I'll never sell more than 20% of my Bitcoin and that will be to make a solid investment. I'm currently eyeballing an almost 400 acre pristine forest property with a 21 acre spring-fed private lake completely within its boundaries. No structures (yet!) and ultra-low taxes. I believe covid-related business losses are the source of vendor motivation. Maybe some day I'll sever some building lots along the road frontage and sell them with vendor-take-back mortgages. Then I'll be earning compound interest.

Play it smart. Don't spend your precious appreciating bitcoins for depreciating fiat without an immediate fiat exit strategy.

[d_eddie]

Apologies if a link to this video has been provided previously.

Michael Saylor/Ross Stevens bitcoin discussion at the MicroStrategy conference. Ross is a very eloquent speaker and made few points that should help companies on the fence see the light.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA_fI-wUqnw

The same video is available at MicroStrategy website as well.

A very eloquent speaker indeed. Rational bullishness from a guy in traditional finance - a risk management firm. If I had a few millions to take care of, I'd be itching to put it in bitcoin tomorrow. Or, wait, I could start today.

I'm out of merit, but will fix you ASAP.

+1 WOsMerits


EDIT - Fixed after a few days 

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1358431592461594624?s=20

Me=Ready

[d_eddie]

Did some idiot start his selling bot? Who was it? It's Sunday no fiat flow into an exchange for me.

Don't worry. Monday first thing in the morning, Michal & Ross have two juicy orders ready  

Michael Saylor/Ross Stevens bitcoin discussion at the MicroStrategy conference. Ross is a very eloquent speaker and made few points that should help companies on the fence see the light.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA_fI-wUqnw

[JayJuanGee]

I hope that you are not suffering too much, LFC... with that cold iron fist of yours.

There surely is some value with delayed gratification.. and yeah, there could be a bit of a dilemma for some HODLers regarding the extent to which a wee bit of shaving off could be prudent - and yeah, we don't really feel like a blow off top or anything like that, even though many of us had been  thinking that $40k or $50k-ish would be good areas to sell decent amounts of stash.. but many of us are not feeling so inclined in these here days... for some reason.. not feeling like the cycle has run.. and it seems still early.. we are like in the early to mid - 2017s rather than the late 2017s.. so it seems.. and gosh, could we be in the early 2013s so deserving two blow off tops in this cycle with the second blow off top obviously playing out as a 5 to 10x BIGGER one.. ?  

I am not going to say.. even though I have some theories that are floating in the decent odds categorizations... feelings... oh oh oh .. feelings...

I finally have a sell strategy, after all these years. I set up a spreadsheet with a sell ladder. I’m not going to go too deep into it but my sells start about $10,000 north from the current price & continue every $5,000 (roughly) until we hit $250,000.

Nothing goes as you plan it perfectly but at least I have a starting point now.

I’d like to continue HODLING at least 25% of my stash long term.

Let’s see how this cycle plays out

That's great news LFC.  I am very glad to hear it.  When you create BTC orders (whether buy or sell) it really locks you into having to seriously think about the matter - and of course, you are not locked into retaining those orders, but at least you might hesitate before you tweak them too BIGGLY.

What I have tended to find (at least so far), is that the BTC price has had a considerable tendency to outrun my expectations, especially to the upside (but, of course, sometimes to the downside too, and accordingly through experience of going through the process of having had a lot of orders executed in both price directions, I have also come to a kind of experiential comfort level in how much to tweak the orders in either direction in order to really attempt to cause myself to feel hardly any emotions when orders get executed in either direction, but still fro time to time, I start to feel some emotions over nonsensical and seemingly relatively small amounts, and I will end up attempting to reflect upon the matter and to figure out some ways that I can tweak a wee bit more in one direction or another in order to attempt to bring myself back to a greater state of emotional neutrality.

Another thing is that I am not going to lie that sometimes I get a bit excited about BTC orders filling in one direction or another because for some reason when the price starts to get within a very close dollar amount to filling, then I want it to fill because it had come so much distance to get to that price point that I want that fucking order to fill.. and then after it fills, then I can relax, even though it is NOT even a big deal in the whole scheme of things if it fills or not, there is just a bit of a desire for the BTC order to fill, once the BTC price starts getting really close to the trigger point that I had created whenever I had set the order.. which could have been hours ago, days ago, weeks ago, or even several months earlier.

By the way, if you have considered your matter and you believe that if you still retain 25% of your coins (or maybe a bit more than 25% of your coins) by the time the BTC price reaches $250k (presuming that it gets there), then I personally believe that is too small of a quantity of BTC and you seem to be considering buying back rather than really ONLY cashing out what you need.. but whatever, you gotta do whatever you believe to be comfortable.. Maybe I am reading you wrong, and you are suggesting more that no matter what that you are planning NOT to go below 25%, but I still think that might be a bit too low.. and is kind of hinging on a gambling mentality, valuing wealth in dollars too greatly and maybe even failing/refusing to think through the ramifications of such conceptualizations that you likely do not need to cash out so many bitcoins in order to really achieve your various personal financial objectives, and maybe even seriously considering whether your setting your BTC retention floor at 35% or 40% might NOT still achieve your same (or very damned similar objectives).. but surely in the end, those are choices for you to make for yourself. and I have found, personally, that there comes a point that you could create your sell orders in such a way that you are largely preserving principle in a kind of percentage way because you are largely ONLY cashing out a portion in which the BTC appreciates in value between your sell orders and so in that regard, you are never really selling any principle (sure depends upon how you conceptualize and frame the matter in terms of what is principle and what is BTC appreciation, but I would still assert that there may well be ways to evolve into a kind of maintenance way of cashing out BTC that does not really deplete its value in great ways nor devolve you into a kind of gambler mentality with an attempt to retain ongoing (and a kind of "perpetual") value with your BTC investment.

[BobLawblaw]

Buying again, starting @ $38k. Orders laddering all the way down to $34k in place, just in case.

[True Myth]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1358431592461594624?s=20

Me=Ready

This aligns with the main channel movement

[Phil_S]

I finally have a sell strategy, after all these years. I set up a spreadsheet with a sell ladder. I’m not going to go too deep into it but my sells start about $10,000 north from the current price & continue every $5,000 (roughly) until we hit $250,000.

Nothing goes as you plan it perfectly but at least I have a starting point now.

I’d like to continue HODLING at least 25% of my stash long term.

Let’s see how this cycle plays out

I want to feel the feels, so I'm choosing Bill O'Reilly strategy!

[OutOfMemory]

Big moves happening around as price going high
...

Interesting, many people predicted a small dip after breaking 40k again BEFORE we have a proper assault on the ATH. We seem to be on calm water at this moment. I feel a big move up is close, I just don’t know when, possibly a week or so after the Chinese New Year.

Keep stackin’ sats.

I have been saving for 18 months, I am nearly at EDITED OUT which is a lot of money in my country. I know some of you people have much more but I am proud I nearly made to EDITED OUT , it is significant as a value with the 21,000,000 cap.

Thanks for reading - Slot Kid.

Welcome  
Some of us people don't have much more, however  
Hold on to your coins and have fun!