Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

I am with @JimboToronto on this.

Selling btc for fiat is just silly, unless some other investment (a farm, a parcel of land, apartment in a nice city or at the vacation spot) is the immediate goal.
Honestly, selling btc for fiat just to have it in the bank is almost the same as selling btc for shitcoins, maybe even worse, and I don't care much about DCAing in and out strategies, unless you DCA via mining. Much maligned shitcoins is a perfect vehicle to cash out to fiat, though. They are called "oscillators" for a reason.

I am riding the bitcoin wave with full understanding that I might "lose" 80% from the top in each full cycle.
The market timing does not work for me. Once I sell, I consider the chunk as "gone".
EDIT: found a great explanation re btc vs cash here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EF_s7Z1xXw

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[marcus_of_augustus]

... buying fiat is NOT a plan, that's a mental illness, are you people fucking retarded?

[JayJuanGee]

I hope that you are not suffering too much, LFC... with that cold iron fist of yours.

There surely is some value with delayed gratification.. and yeah, there could be a bit of a dilemma for some HODLers regarding the extent to which a wee bit of shaving off could be prudent - and yeah, we don't really feel like a blow off top or anything like that, even though many of us had been  thinking that $40k or $50k-ish would be good areas to sell decent amounts of stash.. but many of us are not feeling so inclined in these here days... for some reason.. not feeling like the cycle has run.. and it seems still early.. we are like in the early to mid - 2017s rather than the late 2017s.. so it seems.. and gosh, could we be in the early 2013s so deserving two blow off tops in this cycle with the second blow off top obviously playing out as a 5 to 10x BIGGER one.. ?  

I am not going to say.. even though I have some theories that are floating in the decent odds categorizations... feelings... oh oh oh .. feelings...

I finally have a sell strategy, after all these years. I set up a spreadsheet with a sell ladder. I’m not going to go too deep into it but my sells start about $10,000 north from the current price & continue every $5,000 (roughly) until we hit $250,000.

Nothing goes as you plan it perfectly but at least I have a starting point now.

I’d like to continue HODLING at least 25% of my stash long term.

Let’s see how this cycle plays out

I'm still not sure whether I'll start selling at $50k or should I move my sell orders to $75-80 area. So far I'm ready to sell at $50k but it won't last long. I guess I will wait until the end of the month or so. Institutions must try harder to get my coins, dammit!    

I also think I will keep some 25%-50% of my stash at least for one more cycle. I will NEVER sell my entire stash and become a nocoiner!  

selling BTC for what? Gold? OK (IMO) if you are a bit over invested in BTC. Silver? OK, for our U.S. friends because most of them think silver cannot be confiscated. FIAT? Not OK (IMO) just in case you really need some to buy other things.

Why not selling for FIAT? Why do all the stocks, real estate, land, commodities etc. increase in price? It's not because their value is increasing all the time. But the value of FIAT is decreasing all the time therefore the price of the others in FIAT is increasing. think about it.

very refreshing to observe that the sentiment in WO has changed a bit. it used to be "what is the best exit strategy on cycle top?"

to " never sell ALL your coins"


i am flip flopping between selling only some, keeping basically 90% or so. or selling 50% to 80% of stash, hopefully close to the top.

this is hard to decide. in my case, and i am sure others are in the same boat, it is the single most important financial decision of my life - so far.

going through a multiyear 80% correction without having sold any is gut wrenching. i have done it twice and promised myself, not to do this again.

the little problem with this promise is, that ... well ... this time it could be different^TM. Either this run up or the next one will be, imho, the one where bitcoin reaches escape velocity. there will still be corrections but no 80% multiyear suffering.

worst outcome is sell all and then price does another 2x or more and does not come back. you did not hodl all the years to fold just short of the finish line.

i played around with laddering. start at 80k and sell up to 50% of stash until 400k in little steps.

but: selling means trading the best money ever for dirty fiat that is getting debased to the point it crashes completely.

best outcome would be: price runs up, fiat semi-collapses and all the world wakes up and all they want is bitcoin to trade for their villas or lambos. then bitcoiners would not need to sell.

this "should i sell, and if yes, how much and when" is a game that we will not have to play forever. within this decade, maybe even in the first half, this question will be answered for good: hodl!


this year is the year where we will have to play this thing right. good to have a forum where we can discuss.

To me, it seems that you are going through the correct process, but I am having some difficulties understanding how you could think about the problem so much and still end up with such a gap in what options that you feel that you would like to carry out.  Seems that you are still with a kind of gambler mentality.

Anyhow, your plan to sell 50% of your stash up to $400k sounds just great, but if 50% is feeling uncomfortable, then tailor such percentage down until you reach a point that you are comfortable no matter what happens... yeah, I know it is difficult to ever be completely comfortable with whatever happens because we are going to be continuing to second-guess our lil selfies... but yeah, if selling 50% makes you uncomfortable at 400k, then consider retaining 60%.. or retaining 70% or 80% and there should be a price point that you end up considering in which you are comfortable.. you seem to NOT be comfortable with either 50% or 90%.. but somewhere in the middle should be something that you can "live with."  

Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good because you are never going to get the matter perfect.  What do you believe yourself to be?  a soothsayer?  You are not, and you know that you are not, so you just do your best to get an approximate range that makes you comfortable within theory and as you are carrying it out and executing such plan, you can tweak it along the way if it will cause you to become more comfortable because you figure out that you had over estimated ur lil selfie in one direction or another as the fiat is stacking up and you are figuring out what are you going to do with all of that stacked up fiat.. Is it too much fiat, or not?  Do you have a way to use it? or to hold it in storage or not?

Only you ......




.......can really hone in upon what gives you some level of comfort both financially and psychologically, and sure you might have to tweak a wee bit along the way, which is not a death knell, even if it would be a bit preferible to be able to stick to a plan that you have made, but we retain discretion as humans to actually change our minds and to tweak a wee bit if we feel that is the better course of action after we had put a previous course of action into play that ends up not being as suitable as we had anticipated.

[yefi]

Edit: Why is Elon Musk pumping Doge so hard? Lining his own pockets?

A single address holds 36.8 billion or 28.7% of the whole supply of that shitcoin.

If it's Musk's, then fuck that guy.

[DaRude]

The flippening has happened, doge flipped Bcash  

Edit: and so did Stellar! Shitcoin fight!!!

[noormcs5]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1358431592461594624?s=20

Me=Ready

[JayJuanGee]

As a maximalist myself, it's going to be interesting to to see how this unfolds from the sideline.

Is that really an accurate assessment of where you are at?  You are really on the "sidelines" in respect to bitcoin?

I doubt it.

Sure you can be invested in a kind of way that makes you feel a bit dispassionate about the BTC price direction, or you can feel comfort that there is quite a bit of solidness in your bitcoin investment.  For example, I feel pretty good that I can sell whatever quantity of bitcoin that I want, so long as the BTC price is above $5k, so in that regard, I retain a certain degree of confidence that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the short term or even in the longer term.. NOT 100% confidence, but a damned lot of confidence.

I have also become so bold as to convert myself into using the 208-week moving average (which is currently at about $8,500) as my measure of confidence that the BTC price will not go below such price levels in either the short term or even in the longer term and placing a kind of expectation that the 208-week moving average is likely to continue to increase by 10% to 12% per year.  

So, yeah, I am feeling more and more cock-sured confidence in my BTC investment, but I surely do not feel as if I am on the sidelines in regards to watching various other shit products trying to act as if they are bitcoin 2.0 or whatever scams they are ongoingly pulling to attempt to topple the king (king daddy that is).  Don't get me wrong also.  I don't even feel any particular strong allegiance to bitcoin as an investment, but part of the issue remains there is nothing even close to bitcoin as a long term investment or coming close to toppling it.  If there were, I would not mind diversifying some or all of my investment into such superior investment if there were such a thing.. but there is not.. so fuck all the others claiming to be... and I (personally) do not consider my lil selfie to be "on the sidelines" in regards to my watching their ongoing seemingly shenanigan performances.

No, not at all. I meant on the sidelines in regards to Etherum. I'm all-in when it comes to bitcoin. The entire post I replied to was about ETH, but this was the part in particular I was replying to when I said it was going to be interesting to see how it unfolds.

in a few decades ETH will be completely forgotten, some obscure technical dead-end street. but vitalik buterin will be remembered forever for his wonderful contribution to the bitcoin community.

Thanks for clarifying that because it looks like in my haste I misunderstood the point that you were making...

.....

Thanks for reading - Slot Kid.

Congrats....

Pro tip...don't mention the height of your stack.

Exactly.... if you want to get somewhat specific, then leave it ambiguous or maybe refer to the stack of a "friend" while surely leaving the matter ambiguous.

[dieselmeister]

Buying again, starting @ $38k. Orders laddering all the way down to $34k in place, just in case.

Sold my 8000 Doge for 6.1 cent bought for 1.5 cent several days before. And put also with this little money some buy orders down the road. Just in case. Not much at all, but out of Doge into BTC.

[philipma1957]

I am with @JimboToronto on this.

Selling btc for fiat is just silly, unless some other investment (a farm, a parcel of land, apartment in a nice city or at the vacation spot) is the immediate goal.
Honestly, selling btc for fiat just to have it in the bank is almost the same as selling btc for shitcoins, maybe even worse, and I don't care much about DCAing in and out strategies, unless you DCA via mining. Much maligned shitcoins is a perfect vehicle to cash out to fiat, though. They are called "oscillators" for a reason.

I am riding the bitcoin wave with full understanding that I might "lose" 80% from the top in each full cycle.
The market timing does not work for me. Once I sell, I consider the chunk as "gone".
EDIT: found a great explanation re btc vs cash here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EF_s7Z1xXw

This is why I mine:

 BTC
 ETH
 LTC + Doge merged


Hodl the btc
sell all eth
sell LTC
hodl Doge

Been a plan since 2018 and this year is paying off very very very well.

Only 1 regret which was not pushing hard enough to buy more gear in 2019 and early 2020.

Still a very good 3 year plan .

[Poker Player]

If you have no real content to share, it's better to keep your mouth shut.

Apply that to yourself

If you're in it because you believe in BTC as future money, hodl of course!

I'm surprised you didn't get the Nobel Prize for this phrase.

But if you're in it for the profit, any profit is good.

Is that what you call "real content to share"?

Prices will ALWAYS go up or down,

Genius

...so if you have regrets every time something went up after you sold (with profit), you're the most retarded trader in the world.

What? Are you talking to me?

If you have regrets and think it will go up again, buy in again - DUH.

Again LOL.

As for understatements, you're obviously the winner of the day. Congrats.

Yeah, congrats to you because your ego is as big as you mouth.  I've seen you in other posts and I can clearly see that you have a big mouth.

Welcome to my ignore list.

[serveria.com]

Why every time I come here shitcoins are being discussed on WO? Is it some kind of a trend? 

[friends1980]

(...)

Welcome to my ignore list.

Yes you are completely right, I was on a shit reporting drive and mixed up your avatar with that other Bitvest participant Indymoney god dammit shame on me! Hope my publicly apologizing here (+per PM) is sufficient to you, it won't happen again!

[AlcoHoDL]

Why every time I come here shitcoins are being discussed on WO? Is it some kind of a trend? 

It's bull season. It's always been like this. Pump / Uppity --> Trollery / Shitcoinery.

It's fun, just enjoy it. We all know who's going to be the last one laughing.

[OutOfMemory]

Yes you are completely right, I was on a shit reporting drive and mixed up your avatar with that other Bitvest participant Indymoney god dammit shame on me! Hope my publicly apologizing here (+per PM) is sufficient to you, it won't happen again!

I know these feelings, i constantly mix up messages and messengers when names are involved. But this is a different story.

Maybe unrelated:

The following statements might not be directly connected, but the emotional quality of most discussions has changed quite much in here, and it has a certain time based correlation with

THE PANDEMIC

It's that Covid shit fucking us and our lives all up. Slowly, but constantly. I experience this every day now, in some form or another. In family, society, friends, politics...
Yesterday i was watching a movie, people were close distanced, no masks, and it was the first time it all appeared fucking unnatural to me, before i realized that this pandemic life slowly becomes "normal life". This is a manifestation of the whole virus situation and social approaches to solve it slowly fucking us over, just because we were never meant to life our lives like that. We are actually slowly degrading as humans.
I feel the sentiment in WO slowly changing too, precisely since the start of this global shitshow. We don't even talk about it any more in here, and it's not because it's off topic, because dozens of things we talk about each week are OT as well. Many former active members have slowly gone quieter and quieter.

This is the crisis. This is our test as individuals, as family members, as communities, for society.

Either we evolve and handle the situation with care and foresight, or we just give in to the primal instincts of our genetic ancestors.

What would YOU prefer?

We're at WO are a minority, tied together by our dedication to BTC, Satoshi Nakamoto's present to us.
We should stand together as strong as we hodl, regardless if we think all other's opinion is worth some mushy shit or not.
Together we're sitting in this train which is going to the moon, so let's get our shit together and ENJOY IT, because for many of us it might be one of the last things we will be able to enjoy anyway, at least for some more time. Most of the "fun" is even up to come, like the expected hit on global economy.
I could go on pathetically like this, but i just hope you all know what i mean, even if i look like a over-emotional clown to some of you right now.

Gentlemen!

[friends1980]

Yes you are completely right, I was on a shit reporting drive and mixed up your avatar with that other Bitvest participant Indymoney god dammit shame on me! Hope my publicly apologizing here (+per PM) is sufficient to you, it won't happen again!

I know these feelings, i constantly mix up messages and messengers when names are involved. But this is a different story.

Maybe unrelated:

The following statements might not be directly connected, but the emotional quality of most discussions has changed quite much in here
(...)

I think shitposters think the other members are retards and therefore I treat them in the same way. If I had not make this mistake, I would have treated PP's post as a discussion topic, not as an activity boosting post. So I feel sincerely very bad about insulting him. It would not have happened IRL, because in that case you have a real face before you, and not an avatar.

Sitting in front of this laptop too often since March 2020 certainly has not refined my sense for nuance, you're completely right about that and you're sharing some emotions I can relate to, and I'm sure many of us, and this stupid mistake is therefore quite confronting. Kudos for sharing this and for what it's worth +10 WOs Merit, OOM.

[Torque]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-talks-innovators-disruptors-142836998.html

"MassMutual. Wood said MassMutual is “very conservative and very regulated” and would have had to “jump through many more regulatory hurdles” to buy the $100 million of Bitcoin it has put into its account. Wood says this is “a seal of approval.”

Guys this is huge. If a really conservative company like MassMutual is willing to jump through such reg hurdles to do the bitcoin treasury thing, then we are def going to the moon.

I expect thousands of companies to follow suit soon.

[samson]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-talks-innovators-disruptors-142836998.html

"MassMutual. Wood said MassMutual is “very conservative and very regulated” and would have had to “jump through many more regulatory hurdles” to buy the $100 million of Bitcoin it has put into its account. Wood says this is “a seal of approval.”

Guys this is huge. If a really conservative company like MassMutual is willing to jump through such reg hurdles to do the bitcoin treasury thing, then we are def going to the moon.

I expect thousands of companies to follow suit soon.

Oh yeah, it's very different this time around - they're talking about it now, public companies jumping aboard.

Very different to previous cycles.

[GalaWan]

There is a situation that has risen rapidly a few days ago and then stagnates again. Obviously, we can say for Bitcoin that there is a new adventure starting. For now, it is not clear what the status of smart contract transactions will be in Etherum, more or less I think this will give direction.

[Swordsoffreedom]

This is Elon Musk, Now busy with Monkey!
Guys! Curious mind wants to know Do they have to pay taxes to the government from now on? 

[d_eddie]

Red on Sunday in the present context makes me think someone wants to go shopping from Monday on. They're just massaging the price a little.