Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

Sometimes you instantly regret getting something when you haven't thought about the negative consequences of that thing that you only saw the good sides of.
https://imgur.com/gallery/y8G9HAe

[rolling]

i too am fine with the current setup of small blocks. i want to be able to have my own local copy of the blockchain to verify transactions and holdings for myself. so occasional transfers where i dont mind 1 percent say or 100 buck fees to move something. but sooner or later its gonna be a whales only game with full blocks with large enough transactions where like say a minimum $20k USD miner fee will price plankton like myself out.

The blockchain is currently 320GB. Take your $100 and buy yourself a 4tb hard drive and store some porn on the free space.

Bear in mind that many, many bitcoin users do not verify their blocks themselves (including myself. I powered down my full node a couple of years ago). you are asking them to support your need. Do you actually run a full node yourself BTW? I found it was providing no benefit and simply the fact that I *could* if I wanted to was good enough for me.

Either way, fees are artificially high. Which is what I'm saying.

There is a very good reason for keeping the blocks small, therefore fees are not "artificially" high. They are as high as the free market determines they need to be to keep the blocks necessarily small. This dead horse needs to be left alone.

[heslo]

Well this has been quite a day... bought a little to increase my stash at 52k but out of ammo now. How low does everyone think we will go and why the drop? Seemed things were getting a bit too bubbly from what I could see, I think a nice pullback and reset isn't too bad a thing

[jojo69]

[Richy_T]

if im paying the fee to get into a block how is that asking others to support me? im paying my way and miners set that fee, not me. i pay to play.

If miners set the fee, we wouldn't be having this discussion. If miners "set" a $200 fee and 10,000 people were willing to pay that fee, they would not all get into the block. Thus that fee could not have been said to be set at all. It is only the artificial scarcity of the artificially limited block space that forces fees high for those that want to participate.

[Richy_T]

Oh, I didn't know that. All I know is almost all my segwit transactions cost less in fees compared to legacy transactions.

Yep. The part which was cut off for Segwit transactions is charged at 1/4 the rate of other bytes (this is also something not set by the miners by the way) but separating the signature like that costs some extra bytes.

[Richy_T]

necessarily small.

Please show your working. Also please explain how "necessarily small" has been updated to include up to 4MB of segwit data (while only apparently managing 0.3).

This dead horse needs to be left alone.

People with weak arguments tend not to want to have to justify them.

I said that fees were artificially high and I've justified my position. I'm happy to leave it there if others are.

[somac.]

God that is another ugly looking drop. I mean shit we are where we were 1 week ago. We're poor again 

[Richy_T]

God that is another ugly looking drop. I mean shit we are where we were 1 week ago. We're poor again 

Plans for volcano base on hold.

[somac.]

God that is another ugly looking drop. I mean shit we are where we were 1 week ago. We're poor again 

Plans for volcano base on hold.

Going to have to go with plain old underwater base instead.

[nanobtc]

Before you get the volcano base or the underwater base, make sure these are in place.

Rules for Super-Villains:

1. My Legions of Terror will have helmets with clear Plexiglas visors, not face-concealing ones.

2. My ventilation ducts will be too small to crawl through.

3. My noble half-brother, whose throne I usurped will be killed, not kept anonymously imprisoned in a forgotten cell of my dungeon.

4. Shooting is not too good for my enemies.

5. My private keys will not be kept on the Mountain of Despair beyond the River of Fire guarded by the Dragons of Eternity. It will be in my cold wallets. Not your keys, not your coins.

6. I will not gloat over my enemies’ predicament before killing them.

7. When I’ve captured my adversary and he says, “Look, before you kill me, will you at least tell me what this is all about?” I’ll say, “No.” and shoot him. No, on second thought I’ll shoot him then say “No.”

8. After I kidnap the hot girlfriend of the hero, we will be married immediately in a quiet civil ceremony, not a lavish spectacle in three weeks’ time during which the final phase of my plan will be carried out.

9. I will not include a self-destruct mechanism unless absolutely necessary. If it is necessary, it will not be a large red button labeled “Danger: Do Not Push”. The big red button marked “Do Not Push” will instead trigger a spray of bullets on anyone stupid enough to disregard it. Similarly, the ON/OFF switch will not clearly be labeled as such.

10. I will not interrogate my enemies in the inner sanctum—a small hotel well outside my borders will work just as well.

[Karartma1]

Rather than BUY bitcoin I'd have preferred if we could have been able to MINE bitcoin.
There's a slight different to it, don't you think.
Only good thing when I buy is that my crap fiat turns into btc. Still getting bitcoin via mining was another league.
 

[DaRude]

Well, as I said it's best to have fiat (shitcoin) for this one. Which is why I won't do it. But, basically you buy however many BTC on the spot for current price of 55000. At the exact same time you sell a future, perhaps Sep 26th for this example, for the same number of BTC at a current price of 62700. profit equals 7,700 minus fees per coin

This can be done using CBOE and CME as well as many others, perhaps less reputable exchanges.

The risk for this trade is couter-party only and of course opportunity cost (there is no possiblity of capital gains or losses). Not your keys not your coins. Thing is it's all about levels of risk and what you are comfortable with in the end as well as your goals. Just remember nothing is risk free. Even holding your own keys is not risk free, there are roughly 4million inaccessible coins to prove that.

*Above prices are taken from Deribit.

How does this work exactly? I would love a bit more ELI5.

I posted a link earlier, here it is again.
https://blog.bitmex.com/how-to-arbitrage-bitcoin-futures-vs-spot/

The WO sometimes must be combed thoroughly, but it usually does deliver good info - be it bitcoin or digital cameras.

Or you're just halftrolling and... username checks out?  

I don't believe CBOE offers BTC futures anymore. And i don't see Sept futures on CME. They're not trading now but i believe June futures were trading at around 7% premium. What you're forgetting is that CME is cash settled so they won't take your BTC as collateral for margin. Thus you'd actually need to lock up 150%, 100% to hedge with real BTC and then 50% to post for margin. At 150% that would bring actual premium down from 7% to 4,7%
As far as risks, you're forgetting that if BTC goes up before your settlement date you're gonna get margin called and will need to come up with more cash, or get automatically closed on a spike.

Also transfer times might be an issue, you'd need to sell your BTC and transfer funds to yourself and then to your broker at settlement.

Sure there are some premiums to be had if you want to tolerate the risk, just don't try to claim "140% returns with 0 risk"

[El duderino_]

HoDLsleep. Gotta shut down those lasers. Dreaming of $60k when I wake up (OK, maybe $56k).

Thought the same, don’t wake up to early bro ...

[d_eddie]

if im paying the fee to get into a block how is that asking others to support me? im paying my way and miners set that fee, not me. i pay to play.

If miners set the fee, we wouldn't be having this discussion. If miners "set" a $200 fee and 10,000 people were willing to pay that fee, they would not all get into the block. Thus that fee could not have been said to be set at all. It is only the artificial scarcity of the artificially limited block space that forces fees high for those that want to participate.

Artificial scarcity? That's the whole thing about bitcoin, I think. Come on, let the poor horse get a worthy burial already.

[somac.]

Hmm, those in the US are going to wake up do another decent BTC sale. I wonder if some of Saylor's conferrence goers will take the opportunity to load up on some, just like Tesla did last last month.

[Karartma1]

HoDLsleep. Gotta shut down those lasers. Dreaming of $60k when I wake up (OK, maybe $56k).

Thought the same, don’t wake up to early bro ...

For the first time I must admit I can't stand your hat, actually hating it.
 

[BTCaesar]

Who let’s the dogs bears out?

[BitcoinBunny]

[Parazyd]

The bears woke up?