Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

And, of course, also, if you feel that you do not have enough, you can continue to DCA.. even if it is only $10 per week... though for fee purposes, it may be better to let your amount build up to something like $80 or $100 and then buy once you reach certain thresholds of value.

It that's the issue probably better to keep coins on the exchange until you have enough to make the (artificially high) fees worthwhile

Why do you say the fees are artificially high?

Hahahahahaha


He (Richy_T) is probably still a bit caught up in his BIG ass BLOCKER talking-points.    




Takes a while to change old habits....


Welcome over to this lado Richy_T....   #nohomo

Why do you say the fees are artificially high?

I know you're being cute but for the benefit of anyone not aware...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1347.msg15366#msg15366

Please don't leave us again, Richy_T.

We know that your condition is devolving when you are quoting posts from 2010 as if they have some kind of significant and material meaning to what's going on today.

Snap out of it...

Snap out of it....

I still think the way forward is through increased on-chain capacity. I'm deeply skeptical of second-layer solutions, particularly LN. In fact, if LN is actually a success in 18 months, I'll eat my (xhomerx10 provided) hat.

Nice touch there, Richy_T...

Propositioning to eat your hat demonstrates that there is still hope for you.... especially proposing to eat the Homerx10 hat....

 

if im paying the fee to get into a block how is that asking others to support me? im paying my way and miners set that fee, not me. i pay to play.

If miners set the fee, we wouldn't be having this discussion. If miners "set" a $200 fee and 10,000 people were willing to pay that fee, they would not all get into the block. Thus that fee could not have been said to be set at all. It is only the artificial scarcity of the artificially limited block space that forces fees high for those that want to participate.

Come back Richy_T....

come back

Come back....

Are you seriously coming back to this thread after all this time to start this shit again. Fork off!

Checks for admin or mod flair. Observes none. Disregards gatekeeping attempt.

Some people get really uncomfortable hearing views which don't agree with their own. It's the curse of this age.

we all remember the civil war. this has been discussed. the *paymentzz!!!1!* group demanded bigger blocks. and forked off. and told us to fuck off. the *store-of-value* side kept small blocks. for a reason. now, there are both co-existing, an ongoing free choice for everyone. let´s check what the market says:

bitcoin: 46 500 USD
b-cash:     486 USD

this thread is dedicated to the SOV coin. big blocks suck. the good thing is, we dont need to fight about it anymore. there is the big block coin. fair game. it has its own forums.

Surely a great way of framing the matter.

The debate was had, and even intensively had, and a fork was formed in which such matters could be pursued on that fork to the level of passions.. in fact one fork was formed and then another fork was formed from that fork still on the same BIG BLOCKER theme, and they argued the fuck that their coins and their forks were better because BIG BLOCKS on chain, Satoshi's original intentions, blah blah blah... .. but yeah, as you point out, the market difference is quite great, even after more than 3 years of battling for such market share.. who has the market share?  Seems like king daddy has, and unambiguously so.

[1714967032]

1714967032

[1714967032]

1714967032

[aesma]

I think I need more coffee.

May I have some too, please?

Let's say I have 1 million dollars and 20 BTC (I haven't). I don't want to spend my dollars do buy more BTC for reasons.

Is there a way, playing with futures, that I can get more dollars, more BTC, or more dollars, same BTC, or more BTC, same dollars, in the end ?

Not that I know.*

The system outlined in the previous posts by somac., Biodom and others has only two outcomes: (a) more dollars, less (or equal) btc; (b) same dollars, more btc. In both cases, the total dollar value at the moment of the outcome is more than the value at the start.


* (As if I would tell you if I knew! All bitcoinz belongz to me!)

Case b is OK.

As for case a, can I estimate my risk ? Depending on what it is, I could cover it by buying some additional BTC (granted, I said I didn't want to).

[aesma]

https://twitter.com/squawkcnbc/status/1364206646596165633?s=21

Pretty nice hearing him say these words love it

But 7-8 billions people with lots of money ? He's very optimistic about the turn of events, socialists would be pleased (and personally I wouldn't mind). More like 100 millions and everyone else still poor, me thinks.

[lightfoot]

Can Governments Stop Bitcoin?

In the end, the only way to kill Bitcoin may be to make it so that people don’t need it anymore. If no one wants a devaluation-proof, censorship-resistant, permissionless, borderless, non-discriminatory, teleporting financial asset, then no one will feed it energy, and it will die.

Why do I think we will have no problem from competition from governments. My guess is if it comes to that, they will just use the old trusty truncheon.

Meantime dropped another $100 into the bitcoin machine. It's like of like dropping a quarter in a slot machine as you walk buy except that Bitcoin always pays you off...

Edit: Back above 50k. Good.

[bitmover]

Thanks everyone 

This is cool. What does the location on the figure signiify? i.e. whether on left or right of the figure; top or bottom; proximity to others? I found myself surrounded in close proximity by marcus, fillippone, somac, cAPSLOCK and bitebits. What does this mean? Should I be concerned? How worried* should I be?

I think that this distance between users is random...

But the thickness of lines means the amount of merit between each user. Maybe the line is invisible if there is only 1 or a few merits between users, as there is too much data to display.

[lightfoot]

Calling him dangerously insane because he argues for synthetic beef isn't a great starter. Producing beef is incredibly wasteful, not to mention you have to butcher an animal.

I'm a proud carnivore, yet I would gladly switch to synthetic meat when it is similar in taste and cost. There's simply no reason not to.

Agreed. I see no extra value in the death and suffering of an animal, and would appreciate synth meat if it tasted like the real thing.

[d_eddie]

I think I need more coffee.

May I have some too, please?

Let's say I have 1 million dollars and 20 BTC (I haven't). I don't want to spend my dollars do buy more BTC for reasons.

Is there a way, playing with futures, that I can get more dollars, more BTC, or more dollars, same BTC, or more BTC, same dollars, in the end ?

Not that I know.*

The system outlined in the previous posts by somac., Biodom and others has only two outcomes: (a) more dollars, less (or equal) btc; (b) same dollars, more btc. In both cases, the total dollar value at the moment of the outcome is more than the value at the start.


* (As if I would tell you if I knew! All bitcoinz belongz to me!)

Case b is OK.

As for case a, can I estimate my risk ? Depending on what it is, I could cover it by buying some additional BTC (granted, I said I didn't want to).

I posted an ELI5 a little later. TL;DR  Number go up =(a) less corn.  Number go down = (b) moar corn. Number same = same corn.

Estimate the risk of number go up/down? I wish I could. It's all SOMA!

[xhomerx10]

imVERYho .... I think people are way over reacting about a 25-ish dip which has been looking around the corner for weeks....

When we where at 9k-celebrating Vegeta, we where dreaming of a moment when 10k drop occur and still where feestable ffs get a grip  

Totally agree . Please change your hat  

Maybe getting a dude with laser eyes as well if i'm a good boy

[JayJuanGee]

Bisq flashing on my left monitor, a sell has happened, then I look at the price : less than 39000€ WTH ! (not my selling price, but the average price)

Bought back with my usual profit elsewhere so no issue, in fact if it's crashing there is no risk for me, but I need to buy before a bounce.

The price on Kraken is moving like mad, I'm removing my offers, don't need that stress right now.

Sounds like you do have "issues," aesma, in which you are doing the opposite of what actually has been shown to work for years and years and years in bitcoinlandia.

What works is selling on the way up and buying on the way down.  

Sorry for your additional losses due to dumb.

Just purchased some at 45k

buy the dip

Case in point...

This is how it be done.....

Well, as I said it's best to have fiat (shitcoin) for this one. Which is why I won't do it. But, basically you buy however many BTC on the spot for current price of 55000. At the exact same time you sell a future, perhaps Sep 26th for this example, for the same number of BTC at a current price of 62700. profit equals 7,700 minus fees per coin

This can be done using CBOE and CME as well as many others, perhaps less reputable exchanges.

The risk for this trade is couter-party only and of course opportunity cost (there is no possiblity of capital gains or losses). Not your keys not your coins. Thing is it's all about levels of risk and what you are comfortable with in the end as well as your goals. Just remember nothing is risk free. Even holding your own keys is not risk free, there are roughly 4million inaccessible coins to prove that.

*Above prices are taken from Deribit.

How does this work exactly? I would love a bit more ELI5.

I posted a link earlier, here it is again.
https://blog.bitmex.com/how-to-arbitrage-bitcoin-futures-vs-spot/

The WO sometimes must be combed thoroughly, but it usually does deliver good info - be it bitcoin or digital cameras.

Or you're just halftrolling and... username checks out?  

I don't believe CBOE offers BTC futures anymore. And i don't see Sept futures on CME. They're not trading now but i believe June futures were trading at around 7% premium. What you're forgetting is that CME is cash settled so they won't take your BTC as collateral for margin. Thus you'd actually need to lock up 150%, 100% to hedge with real BTC and then 50% to post for margin. At 150% that would bring actual premium down from 7% to 4,7%
As far as risks, you're forgetting that if BTC goes up before your settlement date you're gonna get margin called and will need to come up with more cash, or get automatically closed on a spike.

Also transfer times might be an issue, you'd need to sell your BTC and transfer funds to yourself and then to your broker at settlement.

Sure there are some premiums to be had if you want to tolerate the risk, just don't try to claim "140% returns with 0 risk"

I didn't know about CBOE discontinuing BTC futures, or about CME futures being cash settled.

Transfer timing, 3rd party risk and other factors do exist. No trade is a free lunch: even arbitrages can go awry. However, the so-called inverse futures have a mathematical structure such that short positions with leverage < 1 can never get liquidated. Just sayin'.

EDIT in ELI5 form for OP - I have to add, though, that this arbitrage works either way - number go up or number go down - only because the profits are measured in fiat. When measured in bitcoin, there are profits only if number go down. So for a real hodler it's not really an arbitrage, but rather either (a) a sale (at over market price, though!), or (b) a btc gain. What it turns out to be depends if number go up/down.

In other words: if number go up, you end up with a higher dollar value, but your btc value has gone down (you still give up less btc than if you had sold, because the resulting effective price is over market). If number go down, you end up with a higher dollar value and a higher btc amount too: your btc quantity goes up, since number went down and the result must make up for that, PLUS the arbitrage profit.

This could be one of the reasons why short interest in futures is always so high, and futures expiry dates are so often bloody for the hodlers - just like now.

I think I need more coffee.

Let's say I have 1 million dollars and 20 BTC (I haven't). I don't want to spend my dollars do buy more BTC for reasons.

Is there a way, playing with futures, that I can get more dollars, more BTC, or more dollars, same BTC, or more BTC, same dollars, in the end ?

Yes, there are means to get more monies,

But, it is better to stick with easier methods, and the best of methods include DCA buying, buy on dips, HODL.. and more advance involve selling, but from your last post, you don't seem to know how to do that.. so why convert to more complicated methods when you cannot even seem to get the more basic principles of the easier methods.  

Makes little sense to me that guys believe that they are going to more easily make MOAR money if they employ even more complicated methodologies than their current ones (that they are fucking up).     Go figure?

[BTCaesar]

It is over $50k again. It seems like  the dumb has just finished.

[lightfoot]

Yeah looks like the sale is wrapping up again.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin always does sudden plunges and rises when I am asleep.
Such prankster.

...does this qualify as a post NOT made at the top or the bottom?  

#If I took is "seriously", maybe I would have been bipolar already

You are correct, Biodom...

I get a sense that we might be stalled somewhere that is neither at the bottom nor the top, which makes it more qualifying for an actual stall... even though, objectively speaking, we do seem to be more at the top than the middle or the bottom, #just saying.

 

 

Edit: Old meme... I should have updated it to 125x. We were around $400 5 years ago.

Well, if we change that 5 year scenario to 6 years, we are at about 188x with our current price at about $47k, since for much of 2015, bitcoin prices were at $250 and $250 was a kind of jumping off point for BTC prices with about 10 months of abilities to buy at or around those prices.

Think about it, bitcoin relatively speaking has been a way easier investment for normies to get into than other investments, even for the unbanked.. considering getting in Tesla or some other stocks.

Have never understood why buying stocks hasn't been made far easier with the rise of the internet and why trading isn't 24/7. I can buy cars, buy property, arrange loans and arrange mortgages easier it seems.

Don't many of us suspect that bitcoin trading is going to force traditional stock markets to trade more widely?.. but access is NOT only about hours of trade, but whether there might be some stocks that are excluded from normies, too based on financial requirements or even minimum quantity of purchases that likely exceed those that have been used in bitcoin.

[heslo]

Today is a big day for me. Thanks to BTC, and partially to you all here, I am debt-free today. I quit my job, and I paid off ten years of debt, now I own my house and a few acres in the clear.
My wife and I live fairly simply. Old paid-for cars (that I can fix), no cable TeeVee. A large garden and a small shooting range in the back yard.

I quit smoking cigarettes, and DCA that amount into BTC. Doing this payoff burned a big chunk of the corn, but  it is a better thing to do for myself, now. We won't be wealthy, but this is the American dream for me. YMMV.

Fucking legend

[JayJuanGee]

Edit: Old meme... I should have updated it to 125x. We were around $400 5 years ago.

Well, if we change that 5 year scenario to 6 years, we are at about 188x with our current price at about $47k, since for much of 2015, bitcoin prices were at $250 and $250 was a kind of jumping off point for BTC prices with about 10 months of abilities to buy at or around those prices.

Think about it, bitcoin relatively speaking has been a way easier investment for normies to get into than other investments, even for the unbanked.. considering getting in Tesla or some other stocks.

So does that mean I'm like 250x up??

If you exercised a mostly HODL strategy then sure, you might be up somewhere in that neighborhood...

But if you have engaged in some other strategies, you would not necessarily be up as much as the mere increase in the price would suggest.

I was wondering a few days ago when I wanted to cash out some coin..... why 5% of my total was like 100x times then what I initially invested. I start to feel like I'm gonna buy whole buildings with cash.

Don't get too carried away.  I know that you like to get emotional about thingies, yet it is still preferable to think about what you are going to do and why you are going to do it, before you do it.  Many folks who are more logical, including peeps in this thread, like to plan their various BTC sell points in advance both in terms of price reached and quantity to sell, and of course, if you make a plan you can surely tweak it at a later date and before the BTC price is actually reached.

Btw.... if sh!tcoins are not in "alt-season" yet... then wtf is happening?? Is all this nonsense an illusion??    

Well, yes, part of your problem remains that you are lacking focus, and as you already realize, in this here thread, we give little to no shits about your various shitcoin distractions.. so if you have some likely delusional theories about various shitcoins, then best go somewhere else with that kind of irrelevant baloney.  Focus... savethe RF... focus.  you fuck.

I've had prophetic dreams about bitcoin price before these dumps. When it was 40k I dreamed I looked at the price and it was 29k. I woke up and saw it was still 40k said phew and didn't act on it. It later went to 29k exactly. This time my dream said 35k. I woke up saw it was still 55k said phew. I really hope it doesn't go any lower because I didn't act on this one either. To be fair I also had a dream it went down to 120k after going to 220k.

I have all kinds of dreams, including BTC going to zero or near zero and blah blah blah.. missing out on buying the dip and other various fears and fuck ups...

They hardly mean shit, in the whole scheme of things, except maybe a nice story to tell.

[philipma1957]

Calling him dangerously insane because he argues for synthetic beef isn't a great starter. Producing beef is incredibly wasteful, not to mention you have to butcher an animal.

I'm a proud carnivore, yet I would gladly switch to synthetic meat when it is similar in taste and cost. There's simply no reason not to.

Agreed. I see no extra value in the death and suffering of an animal, and would appreciate synth meat if it tasted like the real thing.

I have zero issue eating correctly replicated meats.

[shahzadafzal]

Dubai businessman pledges 100,000 Bitcoin, worth $4.8bn, to set up the Miami 2.0 Blockchain Strategy Foundation
This will be the largest Bitcoin investment in history...
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/banking-finance/458881-dubai-businessman-pledges-largest-bitcoin-investment-in-history

[JayJuanGee]

A wild guess: today is the last day to get bitcoin below $3900.

Yes.  The odds of the truth of that assertion are in the less than 25% arena.

So far so good:

Maybe the odds of going below $3,900 again became slightly better than what they were on March 25, but they have not changed by a lot.. I would not even put them above 45% and that 45% is a bit charitable.  You may end up being correct, regarding your guess, but I am not sure what that would be saying, besides you having had gotten lucky in your guess.  Do you find that valuable in how you live your life?  I certainly try to minimize gambling and guessing in how I live my life, but surely once in a while it is fun.. but that is it.. merely fun rather than something to attach much if any significance.

What are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now, @JJG?

NO matter what we should be preparing for both up and down, if you don't want to end up being disappointed, even if your "never below $3,900 again" dart-throwing sorcery-wannabe pronouncement ends up coming true.  

Well, let's just hope that it does come true!

Hey @JJG! Just wondering, what are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now?

 

P.S:

A wild guess: today is the last day to get bitcoin below $3900.

I follow Gemini, and I'm still good:

How come I was getting you mixed up with my double, JSRAW?  I thought that JSRAW made that March/April 2019 prediction about never going below $3,900 and then it is correct that we did not go back below $3,900 until March 2020, and we ONLY went below for a very short time and for only a few dollars.. like the bottom was $3,850 - very difficult to buy that sub $3,900 dip, unless having buy orders already set.

Of course, you are trolling me, yet I will take the bait in part to say that the odds must be less than .5%.. that is less than half of a percent... and let's just call that in the next 10 years.  I would not consider it being fruitful for me to attempt to estimate with any further particulars than less than half of a percent... and really my opinion is just that, the opinion of one random dude on the interwebs (even though my name is not dude).

I decided to send you an smerit Raja_MBZ, mostly because you corrected something in my memory in which I had attributed your various posts to JSRAW, for some strange reason..... rather than rewarding the fact that you seem to be trolling me    about a point that many of us would concede to be a pretty damned low probabilities event.. even though it is a non-zero probability event, at the same time.  

More realistic extremes would be discussing bottoms in which the 208-week moving average might end up getting challenged or revisited, and currently such 208-week moving average is at about $9,300 and it seems to be moving up in the vicinity of about $200 per week in current times.  

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1364319372815253507?s=20

Calling him dangerously insane because he argues for synthetic beef isn't a great starter. Producing beef is incredibly wasteful, not to mention you have to butcher an animal.

I guess one could argue that it's dangerous because it's unnatural - but then look around you, your entire world is unnatural. Microplastics in your tap water, VOCs from your home's building materials, what's a little a synthetic meat in the mix?

Oh gawd.. yefi...

you are not going to stand up for synthetic meat, are you?

 

Calling him dangerously insane because he argues for synthetic beef isn't a great starter. Producing beef is incredibly wasteful, not to mention you have to butcher an animal.

I'm a proud carnivore, yet I would gladly switch to synthetic meat when it is similar in taste and cost. There's simply no reason not to.

You don't take nutritiousness into account, or are you merely assuming that if it has a label that says "healthy" then it must be nutritious?  

Calling him dangerously insane because he argues for synthetic beef isn't a great starter. Producing beef is incredibly wasteful, not to mention you have to butcher an animal.

I'm a proud carnivore, yet I would gladly switch to synthetic meat when it is similar in taste and cost. There's simply no reason not to.

Agreed. I see no extra value in the death and suffering of an animal, and would appreciate synth meat if it tasted like the real thing.

Apparently your own health is of less importance.  Go figure?  Actually, you might consider yourself as kind of resilient until you start becoming older and you start to realize that you are more sensitive to eating bad foods than you had been when you were younger and growing up... So for example when I was a kid and even into my 30s.. I ate almost anything.. and I always had a ton of energy during that period.. needless to say, things changed after 30s, and cannot always be sure if diet might have ended up being a negative factor years later after having had partook in some pretty unhealthy eating in earlier years, too.  By the way, pretty athletically active through my 30s, too.. so it's not like I looked out of shape or unhealthy from my dietary choices.

Calling him dangerously insane because he argues for synthetic beef isn't a great starter. Producing beef is incredibly wasteful, not to mention you have to butcher an animal.

I'm a proud carnivore, yet I would gladly switch to synthetic meat when it is similar in taste and cost. There's simply no reason not to.

Agreed. I see no extra value in the death and suffering of an animal, and would appreciate synth meat if it tasted like the real thing.

I have zero issue eating correctly replicated meats.

How do you correctly replicate a meat, exactly?

You mean put it in a petrie dish and let it grow to "correctly replicated" proportions... ?

yeah, right.  

[JSRAW]

[marcus_of_augustus]

... taking the correction lows for the power law puts us in region of 100k early April

[Wekkel]

Bitcoin must be dipping again