Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

M1 (not M2 or M3!), revised numbers...it is at...$18 tril (from $4 tril in feb 2020 and $1.3 tril in 2008)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1

[1714894565]

1714894565

[Slot Kid]

What are we more likely to hit?

$40,000 or $60,000?

I say it’s about 50/50.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm a proud carnivore, yet I would gladly switch to synthetic meat when it is similar in taste and cost. There's simply no reason not to.

You don't take nutritiousness into account, or are you merely assuming that if it has a label that says "healthy" then it must be nutritious?  

I also take various supplements (pills, nuts, seeds, etc.) to meet 100%+ of all 29 USRDA recommended levels of vitamins and minerals. 100% carnivore-only would be seriously lacking in micronutrients, so let's say I'm 99% carnivore.

You really could not count yourself as 99% carnivore could you if you are eating hotdogs.. and you also concede nuts and seeds, which may well already bring you down to 95%.. so you might need to go to Proudhon to learn some maths.

 

By the way, I would surely appreciate hearing what kinds of foods you are eating in order to achieve 99% (or maybe 95%) carnivore, and I am not even sure if you need to take supplements if you are eating natural kinds of meats with the fats - although there are some theories about benefits of resistant starches (if you ever heard of that?) to help with the digestion and processing of the foods in the body (gut), and there may also be some benefits with some other non-meat foods to help with digestion and nutrients - such as greens in small quantities - even though may not be absolutely necessary to remain healthy.. not really sure.

I am thinking that a lot of time normal people who need supplements would be those who are not eating meat and natural fats (and the natural fats are key.. not bullshit processed fats which can be quite misleading concerning their purported benefits).. vegetarians come to mind as some types of lifestyles that likely need supplements.. or maybe even vegans.. It would seem quite difficult to get adequate nutrients by long term following vegetarian and/or vegan diets, but there might be some systems, just a lot of work..and surely they have advocates that spout out the vegetarian and vegan nonsense.. .. by the way, @dude, are you off that shit, yet?  

But if you eat natural fats with your meat and eggs and fish.. then you might not need much more in your diet besides some resistant starches  (and maybe your nuts and seeds might be providing some of the resistant starches.. gotta be careful with some kinds of nuts and seeds and even eating too much of specific kinds might not be exactly good for you - even if you are tolerating them well for periods of time or even in your youth).. and maybe a bit of vegetable ruffage would not really hurt for the processing of the digestion, even though I am not even 100% (or even close to 99%) sure that there might not be some benefits to including some non-meat items in your diet.

And, your quick acquiescence to agreeing to switch to man-made meats (based on "taste and costs"... now cost is a way to lure people into eating near pure shit - as long as it tastes good) causes me to question your judgement in other respects to dietary discussions - because surely, just on the face of the matter, I would question the nutrient value of man-made meats - but I would not question the ability of creators of such products to bring down the cost or to make it taste/texture as if it were the real deal - when it's not... like eating hotdogs.. but "better for you".. yeah right?  

[proudhon]

What are we more likely to hit?

$40,000 or $60,000?

I say it’s about 50/50.

$40,000. 100% confirmed.

[Hueristic]

What are we more likely to hit?

$40,000 or $60,000?

I say it’s about 50/50.

$40,000. 100% confirmed.

You are having way too much in this thread lately.

[AlcoHoDL]

What are we more likely to hit?

$40,000 or $60,000?

I say it’s about 50/50.

$40,000. 100% confirmed.

https://youtu.be/uGSnyciBCTA

[El duderino_]

What are we more likely to hit?

$40,000 or $60,000?

I say it’s about 50/50.

$40,000. 100% confirmed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4AtBBVZ73U

[Hueristic]

What are we more likely to hit?

$40,000 or $60,000?

I say it’s about 50/50.

$40,000. 100% confirmed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4AtBBVZ73U

ROTFLMFAO!

Perfect!

[El duderino_]

WO=Quiet

[Hueristic]

WO=Quiet

Gonna get quieter, gonna go play some PLO.

[El duderino_]

WO=Quiet

Gonna get quieter, gonna go play some PLO.

Haha, go get them, been a while since my last games.... will pick up soon imo

Have fun and GL

[friends1980]

Dude, you leave this WO for 2 days, you're fugged.

How the hell am I going to read all this up? Shouldn't we like have one of us writing a daily conclusion every day of the week, and the next week someone else takes it over etc.

On the other hand, sometimes looking at the charts is sufficient to have a general idea about what has been said and written.

[JayJuanGee]

Today is a big day for me. Thanks to BTC, and partially to you all here, I am debt-free today. I quit my job, and I paid off ten years of debt, now I own my house and a few acres in the clear.
My wife and I live fairly simply. Old paid-for cars (that I can fix), no cable TeeVee. A large garden and a small shooting range in the back yard.

I quit smoking cigarettes, and DCA that amount into BTC. Doing this payoff burned a big chunk of the corn, but  it is a better thing to do for myself, now. We won't be wealthy, but this is the American dream for me. YMMV.

Good to hear, brother. Congrats on meeting and possibly exceeding your target (you still have some BTC I presume). Regardless, you've met your target, and while your target may seem too mundane/plain/simple for many, I'd say that this is a target worth having. Setting the right target for one's life is a very difficult thing. For me, having an overly extravagant lifestyle, Lambos, hookers, blow and all that, seems so futile and pointless... Maybe the "hookers" part is OK sometimes.   Of course, to each their own.

Another important point in your post is being debt-free. This is the most important for me. IMHO, owing anything to banks/people/whoever is the single most stressful thing in life. I've never owed anyone anything. My planning has kept it that way. It's good that you've reached this state.

All the very best man, enjoy!

Sure, getting rid of debts would be a decent thing to do - or at least to have them in a kind of managing timeline in which you are not necessarily feeling burdened by them or the paying off of whatever remains with them.

Sometimes, with certain kinds of debts, it can be a good thing to "work" those debts in a kind of manageable way that enhances your cashflow.

Another part that surely needs to be considered is the extent to which both your living within your means is sustainable in terms of accounting for some of the increases in costs that are likely to come in the coming years and also trying to anticipate a variety of expenses that also might mean keeping an ongoing emergency fund or money that is kept or stashed away in an emergency fund for the emergency(ies) that are likely to be inevitable, even if you might not know their exact nature at the time of maintaining such a system.

Ever since I got into bitcoin, I have maintained a kind of fund that I take from my regular cashflow that is allocated towards investing in BTC, however if cashflow is short in any particular month, that money does not end up going into BTC, it is either used for the extra expenses or rolled over into the next month for a bit of extra reserves.  So, depending on how erratic are your expenses, would depend on how BIG of a cushion you would like to maintain.

For example, when I was young and had hardly any expenses, I frequently would have a $300 to $500 cushion of cashflow on a monthly basis, but as I developed greater complications including keeping a business afloat that had some erratic cashflows, my monthly extra cashflow cushion had to go up to $2k, and sure I have had times of floating this extra monthly cashflow around, and even during times of travel, the $2k cushion seems to work out much better than anything sub $1k - even though ongoingly I end up having an extra $1k in dollars every month that is NOT really working for me except creating piece of mind that I have that extra cushion there.

I guess that I am just saying, in respect to nanobtc, that he seems to be feeling a certain level of tightness in his budget but at the same time some optimism that his budget is going to be sufficient, and those kinds of considerations are surely ones that he has thought through including an appearance that he has discussed those with his wife, too.  So, surely no one really wants to have to go back to work and earn some extra money if they do not have to, but surely some people will consider that earning some extra money is not necessarily out of their grasp in the coming years, either, that is if they feel they have to and they might even feel some amount of liberty that they can choose which work that they would like to do on such a part time basis rather than being stuck in a full time JOB.

[El duderino_]

Dude, you leave this WO for 2 days, you're fugged.

How the hell am I going to read all this up? Shouldn't we like have one of us writing a daily conclusion every day of the week, and the next week someone else takes it over etc.

On the other hand, sometimes looking at the charts is sufficient to have a general idea about what has been said and written.

Never leave this WO for longer as a few hours while sleeping

[rolling]

Performing like a shitcoin:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME

[JayJuanGee]

Today is a big day for me. Thanks to BTC, and partially to you all here, I am debt-free today. I quit my job, and I paid off ten years of debt, now I own my house and a few acres in the clear.
My wife and I live fairly simply. Old paid-for cars (that I can fix), no cable TeeVee. A large garden and a small shooting range in the back yard.

I quit smoking cigarettes, and DCA that amount into BTC. Doing this payoff burned a big chunk of the corn, but  it is a better thing to do for myself, now. We won't be wealthy, but this is the American dream for me. YMMV.

Good to hear, brother. Congrats on meeting and possibly exceeding your target (you still have some BTC I presume). Regardless, you've met your target, and while your target may seem too mundane/plain/simple for many, I'd say that this is a target worth having. Setting the right target for one's life is a very difficult thing. For me, having an overly extravagant lifestyle, Lambos, hookers, blow and all that, seems so futile and pointless... Maybe the "hookers" part is OK sometimes.   Of course, to each their own.

Another important point in your post is being debt-free. This is the most important for me. IMHO, owing anything to banks/people/whoever is the single most stressful thing in life. I've never owed anyone anything. My planning has kept it that way. It's good that you've reached this state.

All the very best man, enjoy!

Setting some realistic targets is probably good.
I could already pay off the mortgage and buy nice things and still keep some BTC right now if I wanted.
5x and I guess I could retire but I will probably leave it till 10x. We will see if BTC achieves that by say 2026-2027. If we are talking 20x then retirement would probably include a big new home I guess. Still keeping some BTC from my original stash in either case.

I don't really need anything but it would be nice to retire in my 40s. I still have a massive lust to play certain type of video games and I can't see that changing. A bit of travelling every 2-3 months would be great in a post Covid world.
Hookers I can already afford but maybe it is another incentive at retirement to have more of that, I'm not sure.

A Lambo absolutely does not interest me at all. I'd be happy with a Tesla Model Y probably in the mid 2020s / potential BTC retirement. Don't need a new car right now.

My BTC investment came from gambling winnings. It was the last bet I ever played after being addicted to gambling starting 15 years ago, I recouped all my total losses I ever had with a big hunch that I was right about. Instead of blowing that money, it went into BTC. And I've never had a gambling problem since.

Maybe the early retirement will all happen, maybe not.

Oh gosh.  For sure, having enough flexibility that a 10x or 20x might occur from here to 5-6 years is within the realms of reach, even though we know far from guaranteed.

So, in the meantime continuing to invest in BTC likely remains a good thing, and surely not a whole hell of a lot of people are able to retire in their 40s anyhow.. so you would be quite far ahead of many people and even into their 50s unable to really retire.

Also, if you have 5-6 years to think about it, you surely should be able to figure out the budget that you are going to need, even though you could project some of that in advance, and I really understand the real life issue that actually getting there in terms of BTC prices becomes way more concrete than merely projecting 10x or 20x in advance.

Surely, many regulars here already understand that my system is not relying on peaks in BTC price, even though I do understand that you could actually figure out ways to play BTC price peaks to your advantage, but for me, I don't really care too much on a personal level because I am using the 208-week moving average and I have been feeling comfortable once it went above $5k.. and so now that it is at $9,300 it is nearly double comfort because it is going up around $200 per day in recent times.. so I personally feel so much cushion NOT to have to worry.

So, yeah, it could take some time for guys to really come around to considering relying on the 208-week moving average rather than focusing on BTC price peaks, even if they might be able to diversify out some value upon BTC price peaks - if that is part of the longer term strategy.  I, personally, feel better relying on the 208-week moving average because in that way, I feel way more comfortable just keeping a very overwhelming majority of my value in BTC and just spending such value as I need it, whether it might be making quarterly withdrawals on a systematic basis or whether it might be some BIGGER purchases that I might want to make, and so far, it seems to me that I have had so much fiat from which I can spend, so I do not even feel any kind of need to touch any of my BTC... but of course, if the BTC price were to correct down to the area of the 208-week moving average, then there also could come some perception (from me) that maybe I do not have enough cash to just spend willy nilly, and in that regard, there does tend to be some benefits to projecting out cashflow for 6-18 months or even longer so that some cash might be cashed out of bitcoin, to the extent needed if there appears that there might  be some potential short-falls in cashflow within such projected 6-18 month period in advance.

[samson]

What are we more likely to hit?

$40,000 or $60,000?

I say it’s about 50/50.

Quite probably both, as a HODler who cares, it's just a matter of time....

[savetherainforest]

What are we more likely to hit?

$40,000 or $60,000?

I say it’s about 50/50.

$40,000. 100% confirmed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4AtBBVZ73U

"Black guy dies first!" ...

[El duderino_]

What are we more likely to hit?

$40,000 or $60,000?

I say it’s about 50/50.

$40,000. 100% confirmed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4AtBBVZ73U

"Black guy dies first!" ...

So you still are able to say a correct thing in here 

[DaRude]

M1 (not M2 or M3!), revised numbers...it is at...$18 tril (from $4 tril in feb 2020 and $1.3 tril in 2008)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1