Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

Check out that Monthly chart, there's nothing quite like it so far.

Very different to what came before....very different!

And what’s your conclusion

It's different to previous run ups.

So, so different. Isn't it?

Extremely different!

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[marcus_of_augustus]

Well, if you can borrow a billion dollars at near zero percent interest, and then use those funds to buy corn, and those debts are payable with all sorts of conditions several years later ... ... wait, that's exactly what MSTR did.

And just quoting something someone said more than ten years ago.

Indeed there is nobody to act as central bank or federal reserve to adjust the money supply as the population of users grows. That would have required a trusted party to determine the value, because I don't know a way for software to know the real world value of things. If there was some clever way, or if we wanted to trust someone to actively manage the money supply to peg it to something, the rules could have been programmed for that.

In this sense, it's more typical of a precious metal. Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes. As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value.

   Satoshi Nakamoto, February 18, 2009

tl;dr ... satoshi said it's a number go up technology, feature not a bug

[marcus_of_augustus]

... I think there's a few important things missing on this timeline, although it could make the graph too busy (but I also think some things included were not as pivotal as those omitted). I think some of the dates aren't accurate (or lack knowledge of stealth developments more likely).

[Arriemoller]

But you have to admit, he does really look a bit like Napoleon.    

What would you understand, just a year ago he hosted a humorous show and starred in films - now he is the president of Ukraine.

Well, actors usually make good politicians, look at Reagan, Clint Eastwood and Schwarzenegger for example, all very good politicians.

[dieselmeister]

We dipping again, but I have no fiat... Would be nice, when the dipping ends... Would be nice, if we get up again.

[proudhon]

Check out that Monthly chart, there's nothing quite like it so far.

Very different to what came before....very different!

And what’s your conclusion

It's different to previous run ups.

I agree. It looks like an order of magnitude less stable, which is part of my calculation that proves this is the final unwinding. Possibly some resistance punching through $1,000, but after that we'll swiftly be closer to the fair market value of about $100/btc.

[marcus_of_augustus]

The rehabilitation plan for Mt.Gox has been accepted by the court. A timeline has been set, with the deadline for creditors' vote on the plan by October 8th. Any distribution will occur after creditors' meeting on October 20th. How long distribution itself will take is another matter, but those who choose early lump sum payments should presumably receive it within a year.

... will the GOX distributions be bitcoins or fiat?

... e.g. when Coinbase IPO happens there will be tens of billions of new fiat held in bitcoin-savvy hands looking for a new home ...

[samson]

The rehabilitation plan for Mt.Gox has been accepted by the court. A timeline has been set, with the deadline for creditors' vote on the plan by October 8th. Any distribution will occur after creditors' meeting on October 20th. How long distribution itself will take is another matter, but those who choose early lump sum payments should presumably receive it within a year.

... will the GOX distributions be bitcoins or fiat?

... e.g. when Coinbase IPO happens there will be tens of billions of new fiat held in bitcoin-savvy hands looking for a new home ...

Distributions will be in both fiat and Bitcoin.

You get the cash value in USD at the time of bankruptcy plus a share of the coins they have left

This is approximately 139,000 Bitcoin out of around 850,000 claims = ~16% of your coins on top of the cash value.

850k claims not 100% confirmed but it's somewhere around that amount.

Many 'weak hands' claimholders sold to Fortress (Softbank subsidiary) already, most of those of us who didn't sell our claims to the billion dollar corporations over the last couple of years are what I would call 'long term HODLers'......

[Richy_T]

Distributions will be in both fiat and Bitcoin.

You get the cash value in USD at the time of bankruptcy plus a share of the coins they have left

This is approximately 139,000 Bitcoin out of around 850,000 claims = ~16% of your coins on top of the cash value.

850k claims not 100% confirmed but it's somewhere around that amount.

Many 'weak hands' claimholders sold to Fortress (Softbank subsidiary) already, most of those of us who didn't sell our claims to the billion dollar corporations over the last couple of years are what I would call 'long term HODLers'......

Good to see there's finally going to be some kind of resolution to this. It's been a long time coming.

[jojo69]

... will the GOX distributions be bitcoins or fiat?

https://blog.wizsec.jp/2021/02/mtgox-claim-calculator.html

[JayJuanGee]

Check out that Monthly chart, there's nothing quite like it so far.

Very different to what came before....very different!

And what’s your conclusion

It's different to previous run ups.

That makes hardly any sense as an explanation unless you are trying to be vague as fuck so that you can claim to have been correct.

Of course, the run is different because the numbers are BIGGER and the players are BIGGER... but so fucking what, the run is still within the parameters of the 4-year fractal, so it is almost eerie how similar the two (or three) runs are and within the range of parameters of the drunk man that is leashed to the dog and even if they deviate somewhat from the path. .not a whole hell of a lot.

Sure some of us have been cheating by putting a certain level of credence in the three most dominant BTC price prediction models: 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential scurve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.. and sure it is quite eerie how they are coming so fucking true, even though there can hardly be any certainty ascribed to them.  At the same time, those models have been out there for anyone to have tried to figure out and to try to establish some kind of stake in bitcoin, even a modest stake.. but at the same time, they seemed to buy into other kinds of bullshit including trying to say bullshit like "oh wow.. it's so different at the moment.. blah blah blah"  when it is not fucking different... it's almost too good to be true.  Will someone pinch me and wake me up?  Por favor.

[Arriemoller]

On an exchange/website I won't name a guy recently refunded 50BTC that he had stolen from it years before, his reason was : karma.


Arriemoller : happy birthday ! You could retire if it's not done already.

Thanks.
Retired three years ago. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg33203248#msg33203248

So, in retrospect, was it a good decision to pay off all debt with BTC money? Paying off debt = cashing out = selling your precious coins. So if you have just hedl and went on with your monthly payments wouldn't it have been more profitable?

P.S. Happy BD! 

Thanks!

In order to live on my half pension and some benefits and other passive incomes such as some payouts from insurance and what not, I had to get rid of all debt or I wouldn't have been able to pay my bills.

I decided that it was better to sell some of my stash and be work free, then get another job.
I have not regretted that decision even once.
I have however lived a very frugal life, so by the end of this cycle I will sell the rest of my stash when I believe the top is in and pay my taxes, and put the rest in a investment savings account.
This is in part to be able to start fresh with a new stash when the next bear market is over. It's getting increasingly harder to get bank managers to accept the explanations for the money that you have no receipts for, like all the fork money.
I would therefore like to start over with one big buy that comes from within the system and is fully transparent and explainable.
I am also gonna use some of the money to spend on nice things and to renovate/expand my house and to not have to live a frugal life anymore.

Would I have made more fiat if I didn't sell? of course, but monetary value isn't the only value in life.
If you don't use bitcoin to improve your life, then what good is it?
Hodling for hodlings sake is something the very wealthy can do, the rest of us will have to compromise and use some of our newfound wealth to improve our lives.

[Arriemoller]

My birthday today, I'm now 60, got celebrated by the family earlier.
I didn't really care that much when I turned 50, but 60 does make me feel a bit old.
O well,nothing I can do about it, back to the internet and my model rocket rabbithole.

Thank you!

[Arriemoller]

My birthday today, I'm now 60, got celebrated by the family earlier.
I didn't really care that much when I turned 50, but 60 does make me feel a bit old.
O well,nothing I can do about it, back to the internet and my model rocket rabbithole.

Arrie, congratz mate. Time flies, enjoy every second of it and only do whatever you feel like doing! Enjoy and have a good glass of wine/beer/bubbles!

Than you!

[Arriemoller]

Hi, a long time without publishing here, for my part everything is fine, but with many open fronts in work life, I hope to return soon when everything stabilizes.
Hugs.

 Thanks for checking in VB!

Ditto.

[Arriemoller]

My birthday today, I'm now 60, got celebrated by the family earlier.
I didn't really care that much when I turned 50, but 60 does make me feel a bit old.
O well,nothing I can do about it, back to the internet and my model rocket rabbithole.

Happy birthday Arrie, may you live long and be healthy to enjoy your riches!

Hi, a long time without publishing here, for my part everything is fine, but with many open fronts in work life, I hope to return soon when everything stabilizes.
Hugs.

Hey VB, nice to hear from you. Hope you'll be back before $100k, you wouldn't want to miss the party.

Thank you!

[Arriemoller]

My birthday today, I'm now 60, got celebrated by the family earlier.
I didn't really care that much when I turned 50, but 60 does make me feel a bit old.
O well,nothing I can do about it, back to the internet and my model rocket rabbithole.

Congratulations!

You know that saying about old fools, right?

"You don't get to be old by being a fool." 

Thank you!

[Arriemoller]

My birthday today, I'm now 60, got celebrated by the family earlier.
I didn't really care that much when I turned 50, but 60 does make me feel a bit old.
O well,nothing I can do about it, back to the internet and my model rocket rabbithole.

Arrie, Happy Birtday, man!
It's ok to feel a bit old at 60, because it's just an alternative expression for a bit less young  
I'll drink some Gin to you tonight!

Thank you!

[Arriemoller]

Aand I caught up.

[strawbs]

No, you haven't! Happy 60th