Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

@JJG, again, you have no clue about debt, seniority or debt covenants.
Either educate yourself or stop talking about s-t you have no clue about.
BTW, yes, I always try to play chess...it helps to generate "if..then" scenarios, especially when I am being chased by the bear...remember the relevant strategy?

[El duderino_]

I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

you became a real bear lately    this is the second time you call the top of this cycle.

We will here 7-8 more calls easily

[gallianooo]

When has the top of a cycle ever been just over 2 x the previous cycle high? Come on guys, you’re better than this FFS. This is just a regular (close to) 30% correction which happens multiple times in a bull run.

Rinse & repeat guys, we’re only at the second significant dip of this bull run (post halving).

This is the last bull run



You’ll see multiple significant corrections on the way up to $19,xxx.

Some of you have been in bitcoin even longer than me. Sack up FFS!

Yes, it is a second deep correction with the total number last time being 6.
I agree that two is maybe a low number, which probably portends well.
The only difference is the weak-hand institutional managers to whom 20% down is a 'bear market'.

Not really agree with the "second deep correction of  6". We are much more close to the 2013 scenario timeframe than the 2017. The second deep of the previous bull market was end of 2016/january 2017... We are almost in March 2021 and already way ahead of the previous cycle.. So it looks not correct, from my opinion, to compare.

The main thing we should keep in mind is that it is standard to see 25/30/35% corrections, before to see the TOP of the new cycle.

It is much more coherent to have this than a 120-240K$ TOP without any significant corrections between.

[sirazimuth]

......
Now I can relate to the toilet paper edited point... at least in my earlier days in bitcoin.. such as during 2015.. I had to suffer a bit on some of my luxuries..

Furthermore, I feel for you.. and ur lil "old" butt.. .. ..

By the way.. in the past 5 months-ish, i have been traveling, and I have a habit of drinking coffee in the morning and going on walks in the afternoons.. However, if traveling frequently my walks are in areas that I am NOT really clear about the availability (or locations of ) bathroom facilities, and sometimes the coffee that I drink in the mornings can create explosive kinds of situations that carry out into the afternoons.... so I have learned to carry some toilet paper in one of my pockets, but even with relatively nice toilet paper in my pocket, sometimes locations for carrying out "duties" can be quite lacking in luxury.....some branches and garbage lying around...  that's for sure.. especially given the kinds of places that I am sometimes walking.. including the unknown factors as I had suggested.  

I suppose then the term, "does a bear shit in woods?", (when used in this thread anyway) shall henceforward be updated to
"does a JJG shit in the woods?"......  perhaps?....

[DaRude]

As we were discussing for the necessity of a correction, I am noticing that Net Realised PnL of the market has just turned negative:



https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Market%20Indicators&m=indicators.NetRealizedProfitLoss

What is this?

Net Realized Profit/Loss is the net profit or loss of all moved coins, and is defined by the difference of Realized Profit - Realized Loss

So we are basically looking at the difference between

Realized Profit denotes the total profit (USD value) of all moved coins whose price at their last movement was lower than the price at the current movement.

And of course:

Realized Loss denotes the total loss (USD value) of all moved coins whose price at their last movement was higher than the price at the current movement.

This means market is coooling off, a lot of traders are now in the red, and the trades making money are now less than those losing money. This balanced situation in the past was a prerequisite for the subsequent ramp up in the market.
I think this time won’t be different.

A month ago when we crossed this price for the first time we were at ATH. This means that overwhelming majority of transactions are spending UTXOs from within this month. New money just slushing around bloating the blocks, BTC float must be tinier than i thought

Edit: can also just be the outflow from exchanges of BTC bought this month e.g. Elon moving his stash to cold wallet

[lightfoot]

I liked the almost 60k feeling, I felt rich, now not so much.

Edit: I even started buying soft 4 ply toilet paper, back to the cheap generic recycled stuff again.

Man, if you want an investment that pays a lifetime of dividends, Buy.... a..... bidet :-)

Seriously, this whole lockdown thing has given my life one major change: The incredible value and personal delight of a toilet mounted bidet. Even a $40 basic unit is so, so, so deliciously nice. I can't believe I lived my life without one for so long, all those wasted years.....

I am going to remodel one of my bathrooms this year and a key reason is to put a power outlet near the toilet so I can try one of those $300 Japanese heated, vented, powder your ass with gold bidets.

But a $30-$40 one is such a life improvement over wooden logs it's just amazing.

[NeuroticFish]

We're going higher to at least 6 digits guys!  

I start to be more and more convinced about this.


It's week-end, the FUDsters are more active than ever on the forum and the $1.9 Billion Trillion printing machine may be starting to brrr again tomorrow.
I'm expecting and interesting March  


Edit: Thanks JJG for the correction. Trillion, O...M...G...

[JayJuanGee]

I think we've reached the top for this cycle though I'm happy to be proven wrong. We either do a bounce back to around $50k and begin our long road down to $15k or this is just a correction on the way to an even bigger all time high.

There will be plenty of people talking about how "this time is different" just like the last 3 times. I remember the "China is getting in!" as the excuse many years ago and the cycle still played out the exact same way as it has every other time. "Corporations are getting in" is no different. China didn't save bitcoin from going down over time, the ICO craze didn't save bitcoin last time. Corporations won't save bitcoin this time.

Inflation of the dollar may help the price not dip as much but it will still dip.

My hodl strategy doesn't change. I already cashed out my spending money for the next 4 year cycle so I am fine either way. A higher ATH just means it will be that much higher in 4 years.

One awesome thing we will see next cycle is RGB. They just began testing the ability to send colored coins over LN. There will be LN smart contracts and LN DeFi coming to Bitcoin. The tech is going to be awesome.

This is the future.
https://twitter.com/dr_orlovsky/status/1366011192733483008

That would be the low BELOW prior high, which never happened before, but there is always a first.

Someone even more bearish than you, Biodom...  


Go figure ur lil selfie.

@JJG, again, you have no clue about debt, seniority or debt covenants.
Either educate yourself or stop talking about s-t you have no clue about.

I was responding to you, diptwat, and I stand by my response, whether you agree that I sufficiently backed up my response or sufficiently explained myself or studied your stupid-ass talking points or not.

BTW, yes, I always try to play chess...it helps to generate "if..then" scenarios, especially when I am being chased by the bear...remember the relevant strategy?

I surely am NOT saying that it is NOT important to prepare for various strategies and even to prepare for the more extreme and outrageous strategies, but still my point earlier is that there remains a certain large degree of importance to be putting more preparations into more likely scenarios and less preparations into less likely scenarios - and that would include considering how much emphasis to give to talking about such niche theories.. good luck to your ongoing bearish nonsensical talking points... you will likely need it, especially given where we are at and where we are more likely to go (rather than your pie in the sky, "what ifs" blah blah blah).  

You will thank me later, if your pride doesn't happen to get in the way.    #nohomo

......
Now I can relate to the toilet paper edited point... at least in my earlier days in bitcoin.. such as during 2015.. I had to suffer a bit on some of my luxuries..

Furthermore, I feel for you.. and ur lil "old" butt.. .. ..

By the way.. in the past 5 months-ish, i have been traveling, and I have a habit of drinking coffee in the morning and going on walks in the afternoons.. However, if traveling frequently my walks are in areas that I am NOT really clear about the availability (or locations of ) bathroom facilities, and sometimes the coffee that I drink in the mornings can create explosive kinds of situations that carry out into the afternoons.... so I have learned to carry some toilet paper in one of my pockets, but even with relatively nice toilet paper in my pocket, sometimes locations for carrying out "duties" can be quite lacking in luxury.....some branches and garbage lying around...  that's for sure.. especially given the kinds of places that I am sometimes walking.. including the unknown factors as I had suggested.  

I suppose then the term, "does a bear shit in woods?", (when used in this thread anyway) shall henceforward be updated to
"does a JJG shit in the woods?"......  perhaps?....

I am not feeling so good about those kinds of thinkenings.  

We're going higher to at least 6 digits guys!  

I start to be more and more convinced about this.


It's week-end, the FUDsters are more active than ever on the forum and the $1.9 Billion Trillion printing machine may be starting to brrr again tomorrow.
I'm expecting and interesting March  

Try trillion...

Fixed that for you

[OROBTC]

Order @ $43.5k just got filled.

Well, I provided you 0.05 BTC of liquidity for ya...  [Careful readers of JJG posts might note my "sell DCA"]

BTC Amigos!  See other nearby thread by proudhon for definitive and proof that BTC's days are numbered!  It's been confirmed by China and Russia, and now I hear from my own South Korean contacts that they have demonstrated beyond doubt that $6500 *may* provide resistance.  Or maybe not.

"Abandon hope all ye who enter here"

[d_eddie]

When has the top of a cycle ever been just over 2 x the previous cycle high? Come on guys, you’re better than this FFS. This is just a regular (close to) 30% correction which happens multiple times in a bull run.

Rinse & repeat guys, we’re only at the second significant dip of this bull run (post halving).

This is the last bull run



You’ll see multiple significant corrections on the way up to $19,xxx.

Some of you have been in bitcoin even longer than me. Sack up FFS!

Yes, it is a second deep correction with the total number last time being 6.
I agree that two is maybe a low number, which probably portends well.
The only difference is the weak-hand institutional managers to whom 20% down is a 'bear market'.

I'd figure those institutional managers would try to get a clue about the world they're entering before committing their institutional bucks to something. Have they not seen the past charts? Haven't they factored in the possibility of mildish retracement (such at the present one, at least at the moment)?

Or, as one of our most raging bulls succintly put it, those institutional investors are supposed to have...

Much stronger hands than mailmen and grannies in 2017 if you ask me...  

I always welcome your point of view btw. I'm out of merit and don't want to inflate WOsMerit too much either, least capt. Toxic spanks me for brrrrr-ing his creation to oblivion. Just keep it coming.

[sirazimuth]

......
I am not feeling so good about those kinds of thinkenings.  

...

Well, I have to admit, after those particular thinkenings, it did make my lil selfie
mood go a lil on the uppity to perhaps help and contrast with my king daddy going downity lil feewings....

[JayJuanGee]

Order @ $43.5k just got filled.

Well, I provided you 0.05 BTC of liquidity for ya...  [Careful readers of JJG posts might note my "sell DCA"]

I am not going to claim any credit for your technique.

I have frequently argued for DCA, buy on dips and HODL as techniques to accumulate, and once you reach your accumulation goals, then you might consider other matters including whether to "over accumulate".. but then also maintenance and liquidation are other categories that come into consideration once accumulation goals are largely or mostly met.

Frequently peeps talk about DCA'ing out of their BTC investment on the way up, but I really don't consider that to be the right verbiage or even the right way of considering the matter and the various techniques that might be employed on the way up, including selling on the way up.. and even selling at all does not seem to come into play until you have really considered where you are at in terms of accumulation or even overaccumulation..  

Actually, there are a variety of techniques to consider for when prices go up, and why you might sell some BTC - and surely it could become complicated to go into them very much, but I still would not consider them to be any kind of DCA technique because that seems to be nearly pure muddy thinking.

Should we talk about liquidation?  Should we talk about maintenance?  I hope that you, OROBTC, are not talking about DCA'ing on the way up (and out) as a mode for accumulation, because I clearly reject that as a strategy.

From your past posts, you, OROBTC, seem to talking about regular DCA'ing on the way up (and out) as a way to continuously consider rebalancing your BTC portfolio in a way to extract some of its value.  And, I am not an advocate of that kind of a system either.. I am more of a "let your winners ride" kind of a guy.. and cash out as needed rather than regularly - even though from time to time, you might have to consider your cashflow for the upcoming year and consider if you have enough.. things like that.

So, you may need to explain a bit more OROBTC in terms of how your technique is somewhat syncronized with a variety of my techniques and thinkenings in regards to how to manage your BTC holdings on the way up.. by the way, if you might not have noticed from some of my recent posts, I am surely having some struggles with considering the extent to which I might want to cash out additional BTC because I am kind of feeling like I already have way too much cash.. but anyhow, so I have not really talked about cashing out of BTC outside of my regular system that is more of a maintenance strategy rather than either reallocation or liquidation.. which seems to be more of your objectives.. and maybe you can disclose if you are actually thinking about using such techniques for BTC accumulation too?

BTC Amigos!  See other nearby thread by proudhon for definitive and proof that BTC's days are numbered!  It's been confirmed by China and Russia, and now I hear from my own South Korean contacts that they have demonstrated beyond doubt that $6500 *may* provide resistance.  Or maybe not.

"Abandon hope all ye who enter here"

You seem to be joking here.. so I am not going to substantively respond in any kind of meaningful detail to those kinds of considerations of anything that seriously contemplates corrections below $30k seem quite premature, even though corrections in the $20k to $30k would not be out of the question for a kind of realistically strong and even believable level of correction that could happen to really shake a lot of folks out of their BTC - but still seems to be on the lower likelihood of current probabilities given where we are at and what is going on in the overall markets.

[kellrobinson]

Where s = log (usd per btc / $0.02)
and t = 0.093928 * sqrt (days elapsed since 2010-09-08)
The Twopenny Indicator = (s-t) * sqrt(s+t)
The blue trace is the daily closing bitcoin price run through the twopenny equation (named for the denominator of s).
The red traces are constant-dollar lines at $10.33, $463, $7642 and $81550.  These isovalue lines, which intersect the baseline at halvings, are cyclical price drivers.

it seems that we cross the line and go higher by >2.5X, but 3X<
With 81550 being the line cross, this puts us to 203-244K area, with the historical projected average of "multiplication" factor of 2.73X over the line, resulting in 222.6K.
If we shall use last peak multiplicator of 2.588, then the projection is 211K
In any case, this is quite bullish if it would pan out.
Awesome charts.

Here you can see how the twopenny historically worked as a leading indicator.  I'm confident that the stepwise value driver theme will hold true in the coming cycles.
However, the next price driver level is indeterminate.  Straight-up curve fitting without fundamental analysis arrived at $81550.  The forecast assumes that bitcoin's price keeps bouncing off the baseline; i.e. that bitcoin's future baseline price will hew to the square root of time elapsed.
(red verticals sit at the halvings)

[Biodom]

......
I am not feeling so good about those kinds of thinkenings.  

...

Well, I have to admit, after those particular thinkenings, it did make my lil selfie
mood go a lil on the uppity to perhaps help and contrast with my king daddy going downity lil feewings....

Very nice, this is kind of talk this guy seem to be engaged in lately.

ammirite? lol

PS. maybe this is caused by his apparently (self-indicated) large bank account. I cringe to think what would happen at 100K.
Probably something along the lines of "Fear and loathing in Las Vegas".

[OROBTC]

...

I have not ever read that JJG is not a smart guy.

Yes, your assessment of my thinking is spot-on.  "DCA" works for selling as well, and yet I am still over 1% of my net in BTC.  Need some FIAT$ for helping get my grandsons best set-up.  But, to the extent possible, I am HODLing as much as possible.  Until the smoke clears, though, I cannot responsibly buy moar.  That time may eventually come however.

Thanks in part to you, BobLBl and many of you others, I have done very well with BTC.  "All gravy" at this point, not a life changer, but has worked out well.  It's nice playing with The House's money.  And to use some of that to fund two generations down.

[JayJuanGee]

......
I am not feeling so good about those kinds of thinkenings.  

...

Well, I have to admit, after those particular thinkenings, it did make my lil selfie
mood go a lil on the uppity to perhaps help and contrast with my king daddy going downity lil feewings....

That's the spirit, sirazimuth... !!!!!!.. really get into dee character in order that uie can synchronize ur lil selfie w  true feewings of dee widdle onie dat u b tryin a imit-adin.  

......
I am not feeling so good about those kinds of thinkenings.  

...

Well, I have to admit, after those particular thinkenings, it did make my lil selfie
mood go a lil on the uppity to perhaps help and contrast with my king daddy going downity lil feewings....

Very nice, this is kind of talk this guy seem to be engaged in lately.

ammirite? lol

PS. maybe this is caused by his apparently (self-indicated) large bank account. I cringe to think what would happen at 100K.
Probably something along the lines of "Fear and loathing in Las Vegas".

Surely, we do have to take representations on the interwebs with a decently large grain of salt, but still seems that many of us longer termers in these here parts have been trying to genuinely attempt to share ideas and even try to get answers to certain questions that we have regarding the king and other markets (or macro-dynamics) that touch upon it and its price performance (whether short, medium or long term)..   . even you, Biodom, seem to be engaged in such information (brainstorming) ventures in this here thread to the extent that (from time to time) you don't end up getting too caught up (and distracted) in battling with certain personalities...  jajajajjaja  

[El duderino_]

#Tuurdemeester can't copy the twitter link 

[JayJuanGee]

...
I have not ever read that JJG is not a smart guy.

Yes, your assessment of my thinking is spot-on.  "DCA" works for selling as well, and yet I am still over 1% of my net in BTC.  Need some FIAT$ for helping get my grandsons best set-up.  But, to the extent possible, I am HODLing as much as possible.  Until the smoke clears, though, I cannot responsibly buy moar.  That time may eventually come however.

Thanks in part to you, BobLBl and many of you others, I have done very well with BTC.  "All gravy" at this point, not a life changer, but has worked out well.  It's nice playing with The House's money.  And to use some of that to fund two generations down.

Of course, OROBTC, you recognize that over the years, we have had some variations of this discussion before, and I am not even sure if I am responding to you or just more broadly, because really you have pretty stubbornly defended your position and practices over the years (which is not necessarily a bad thing), which surely has to cause me to conclude that you are tailoring your approach to your individual circumstances** to a degree that remains quite satisfying to you (and perhaps even your family, such as your wife)... so yes, the first and most important person to satisfy regarding your attempted approach remains yourself rather than any random peeps on the interwebs.

**just as a reminder to everyone.. we are in a public thread (so this is not necessarily directed at you OROBTC)... the individual circumstances that I believe that everyone should attempt to account for to the best of their abilities (and surely is not an easy task in itself) remain: cashflow, other investments, view of BTC as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, abilities to plan, research, learn, strategize and tweak from time to time which may include trading and reallocating.

[d_eddie]

#Tuurdemeester can't copy the twitter link 

Surely unrelated, but that name Tuurdemeester sounds dangerously close to "Master of Turds" in some pseudolanguage (fake German/Dutch) 

[El duderino_]

Social Security Trust Fund has $2.9 TRILLION and is allocated 100% to bonds.

0% allocated to #bitcoin.

We are so early.

#BTC is still the world’s most undervalued asset, by many orders of magnitude.

https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1366121190700552196?s=20