Updating the old graph... almost 1 year anniversary of the big crash...
Gold is heading back to 'normal' levels of $1600, while BTC is
Off. The. Charts.
Wealth Manager: How is your Bitcoin thingy going then?
Me: Not bad. Do you remember when you asked me to buy $250 index-funds monthly and I said no?
WM: Yeah, I remember. I am sorry you didn't do that as we have a consolidated 12% yearly return.
Me: Yeah, you're right. I am sorry I don't know the exact figures of my btc yearly return as it is
Off. The. Charts. 12% yearly is pretty damned good for traditional investments (of course bitcoin beats that in almost any timeline of any kind of significant timespan of 4 years or more).
As I had said several times, my various traditional investments have averaged in the ballpark of 5.5% to 6% over 30 years or so, and so anything that might consistently be having returns greater than 6% would be good (even though some years I did have returns in the 20% to 30% arena, but they did end up averaging out to around 5.5% to 6%.
Even though in 2013, my hope was that my bitcoin investment would largely at least match my traditional investment, and I did not give up on it, because largely it was in the red and even under performing my traditional investments for nearly 3 years (even though I kept putting money into BTC and bringing down my average buy price). Of course, after those first 3 years (which would have been late 2016, we kind of know what ended up happening in terms of bitcoin barely crossing into $1,000 territory and crossing its previous ATH of $1,163 from late 2013... but you could thereafter average out the BTC returns for all of those years and really see quite good performance to largely get a tripling of the 2013 ATH (of around mid-$3ks) - which ended up being the floor for the bottom of the 2018 and even 2020 dip... and surely we can still have quite a bit of confidence now, that the floor is in and we have a decently long term investment in BTC that can be a bit difficult to measure exactly but it can be measured for sure... and maybe even too much to measure..
What if we use the $250 low of 2014/2015 to start to measure in late 2013, when I got started... (because even mid 2013 had $250 prices, even though I started buying much later, only got my average buy price into the $400s before having some hacking issues that ended up bringing my average buy prices into the $750s - even though I like to use $1k-ish as my average BTC buy price.. just for funzies).. .. So let's show the numbers of a 2x price trajectory.. that would be 100% per year returns.. and where would we be in terms of BTC price and are we behind that or ahead of such 2x trajectory?
Dec 1 of year 2x trajectory price - actual approx price ahead/behind 2x trajectory? Actual year to year % Gross increase
2013 $250 (base price) $1,100 -78% (starting in hole) start start
2014 $500 $380 -24% -65% 52%
2015 $1,000 $380 -62% 0% 52%
2016 $2,000 $750 -62% 2x 300%
2017 $4,000 $10,000 +2.5x 13.3x 40x
2018 $8,000 $4,100 -49% -59% 16.4x
2019 $16,000 $7,500 -53% 1.83x 30x
2020 $32,000 $19,000 -40% 2.53x 76x
2021(now 1stqtr) $40,000(?) $57,000 42.5% 3x 228x
2021 $64,000 $? ?% ?% ?x