Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

Because some of us are still used to 2017 pump levels. I made that mistake, too.
But JJG got me straight again  

What are "we" saying now then?

Are we in like mid-2017 ish price levels, where we might have a decently large pullback before continuing up in a kind of blow-off top?

Or might we end up in more of a kind of 2013 double top performance where we might be somewhere in the first price bubble (whether it has peaked or not might be another question), and then our pullback would be longer than the one(s) that happened after August 2017.

I keep getting the sense that the top of this particular bubble could end up dragging into 1st quarter or 2nd quarter of 2022.. but surely there is a whole hell of a time between now and then, so it is difficult to suggest how this bubble could get there - so maybe in the end, those folks who have been more reliant on the four year fractal for providing their guidance end up being correct and we just get another cycle that ends up playing itself out in the last quarter of 2021.. I still don't know how that happens either and could reasonably result in tops that range anywhere in the $150k territory to even up to $1.5 million.. and yeah no one finds this helpful to have such a broad range and the higher end of the range does come off as a bit over-the-top in terms of probabilities, especially to be able to reach it by the end of the year (which then causes me to consider that if the top ends up being even close to that $1.5million high for this cycle, then it just seems more reasonable that the cycle could take a wee bit longer to play out).

Surely, difficult to speak with any kind of confidence without coming off as a wee bit of a kook.. but at the same time, I have hardly any sense of financial expectations that any of the UPpity BTC price performances need to play out to make me feel MOAR better financially.. even though psychologically there could be some good feelings in regards to pointing at the no coiners who had continued to fail/refuse to take any kinds of meaningful actions to acquire some corns in case they catch on.. and BTC prices going up to the upper end of the range - even $500k to $1.5k would surely be quite validating (just in case some of us don't already feel validated enough.. .I was even feeling pretty validated in the $10k to $20k range.. so, there is that angle, too)

Alright, but "we" learned that BTC historic chart moves/prices can't simply be mapped onto the future.
While a $1k dump/pump thrilled the shit out of me in 2017, it's just a "meh" occurrence nowadays, but relatively speaking, a -$1k move in Q1 of 2017 would be like about a -$5k move in the todays. If expressed in percent, the same price movements would "feel" bigger in absolute values, maybe you remember our little discussion about this, some weeks or months ago.
Even relatively spoken, $500k is plausible, because it would be under 900% move up from current price, which we "know" BTC does like to do, post halvening.
That is what we used to know. With the s-curve hypothesis, the nearing liquidity crisis and big institutional money flowing in for the long haul, it is clearly possible that there will be no -80% two year lasting bear market in the next years. As the time goes on, your mappings of a peak in Q1/2 2022 could even turn into a plateau, followed by further plateaus, gradually decreasing by height and increasing in duration, what would result in said s-curve.
I like the idea, and i would be happy to observe this, and it's not only unrealistic to happen, because we didn't have it yet. Honey badger will surprise (most of) us, and hopefully not in proudhon's favour. The end of cycles as we know them, followed by "steps".
I realized i have to look back to 2017 like early adopters looked back at 2013 in 2017, but there's still no right way to look forward.

EDIT: Just checked the price ($56.6xx) and like that i'm "in the money" while i bought a bit too high today. I could also have waited for that second dip, what seems quite a regular thing following significant dumps, lately. IDC. I got more sats, that's all that counts. May i quote nullly:

1 BTC = 1 BTC

or is it

1 BTC == 1 BTC

?

[Biodom]

<a bunch of blabbering snipped>

^Does this person/entity have to insert himself (or itself) into each nook and cranny on WO?
Asking for a friend.

[Gyrsur]

<a bunch of blabbering snipped>

^Does this blowhard have to insert himself (or itself) into each nook and cranny on WO?
Asking for a friend.

Bob proved to be a gay man is possible w/o making lot of words. so just don't read the wall of words. 

[Gyrsur]

1 BTC = 1 BTC

or is it

1 BTC == 1 BTC

?

technically the first statement is not a boolean.

but the second statement is TRUE .  

[OutOfMemory]

@Biodom: I prefer conversations on the web to be non personal, objective, non insulting and/or funny/entertaining.
I don't get much out of flaming, at least it's sometimes entertaining my lil selfie  

While i tend to "interfere" in discussions quite often, why would i judge such behaviour in someone else?
That wouldn't make much sense, would it?

However, i'm an outside spectator in the ongoing conversation between Bob, you and JJG, so i can't answer your question because i like to stay neutral.
Overall, my point of view in general is: Everybody can do/act as he pleases, as long as nobody gets harmed in any way. Like "respectful anarchy".

1 BTC = 1 BTC

or is it

1 BTC == 1 BTC

?

technically the first statement is not a boolean.

but the second statement is TRUE . 

+1 WOsMerit

[Hueristic]

Computing Pi beyond 40 digits is pointless except as an academic exercise. Any phone today can compute pi to 100 digits even with inefficient programming.

The most distant spacecraft from Earth is Voyager 1. It's about 12.5 billion miles away. NASA only needs 15 decimal digits of pi to have an error margin of 1.5 inches at that distance.

If we used 40 digits of pi, you could calculate the circumference of the entire known or visible universe. About 46 billion light-years. To an accuracy equal to the diameter of a hydrogen atom.

There is no need for 1 million digits of pi, or waste 100 days to calculate trillions of digits.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/news/2016/3/16/how-many-decimals-of-pi-do-we-really-need/

I think I just printed pi on one of my school paper notebooks or something to 50 digits and used that as the cover. 3.1415xxxxxx ... heh.

What's the value of Pi?

Mathematician - 3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375105820974944592307816406286 208998628034825342117067982148086513282306647093844609550582231725359408128481
Physicist - 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716
Engineer - about 3 something

Engineers use a minimum of 3 significant digits as a rule.

[vroom]

1 BTC = 1 BTC

or is it

1 BTC == 1 BTC

?

technically the first statement is not a boolean.

but the second statement is TRUE .  

..but if you compare strings you have to use quotes

"1 BTC" == "1 BTC"

[OutOfMemory]

Computing Pi beyond 40 digits is pointless except as an academic exercise. Any phone today can compute pi to 100 digits even with inefficient programming.

The most distant spacecraft from Earth is Voyager 1. It's about 12.5 billion miles away. NASA only needs 15 decimal digits of pi to have an error margin of 1.5 inches at that distance.

If we used 40 digits of pi, you could calculate the circumference of the entire known or visible universe. About 46 billion light-years. To an accuracy equal to the diameter of a hydrogen atom.

There is no need for 1 million digits of pi, or waste 100 days to calculate trillions of digits.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/news/2016/3/16/how-many-decimals-of-pi-do-we-really-need/

I think I just printed pi on one of my school paper notebooks or something to 50 digits and used that as the cover. 3.1415xxxxxx ... heh.

What's the value of Pi?

Mathematician - 3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375105820974944592307816406286 208998628034825342117067982148086513282306647093844609550582231725359408128481
Physicist - 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716
Engineer - about 3 something

Engineers use a minimum of 3 significant digits as a rule.

Dude, you just ruined a mathematician's joke 

[OutOfMemory]

1 BTC = 1 BTC

or is it

1 BTC == 1 BTC

?

technically the first statement is not a boolean.

but the second statement is TRUE .  

..but if you compare strings you have to use quotes

"1 BTC" == "1 BTC"

Put this way,

"1 BTC" = "1 BTC"

would just raise an error, right?

[Biodom]

From reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/m5ql80/oc_you_spelled_hold_wrong/

[Hueristic]

1 BTC = 1 BTC

or is it

1 BTC == 1 BTC

?

technically the first statement is not a boolean.

but the second statement is TRUE .  

..but if you compare strings you have to use quotes

"1 BTC" == "1 BTC"

Put this way,

"1 BTC" = "1 BTC"

would just raise an error, right?

Well I guess a variable of "1 BTC" could recursively store itself and then lead to an "OutOfMemory" situation.

[OutOfMemory]

1 BTC = 1 BTC

or is it

1 BTC == 1 BTC

?

technically the first statement is not a boolean.

but the second statement is TRUE .  

..but if you comparejavascript:void(0); strings you have to use quotes

"1 BTC" == "1 BTC"

Put this way,

"1 BTC" = "1 BTC"

would just raise an error, right?

Well I guess a variable of "1 BTC" could recursively store itself and then lead to an "OutOfMemory" situation.

hmm, i doubt so. It's an (anonymous) string literal, which should be read-only (const).
But i got the joke and i like it
Are there "named variables" in this manner in any language you are aware of?
There are quite some freaky languages out there, like the famous INTERCAL

[_javi_]

Computing Pi beyond 40 digits is pointless except as an academic exercise. Any phone today can compute pi to 100 digits even with inefficient programming.

The most distant spacecraft from Earth is Voyager 1. It's about 12.5 billion miles away. NASA only needs 15 decimal digits of pi to have an error margin of 1.5 inches at that distance.

If we used 40 digits of pi, you could calculate the circumference of the entire known or visible universe. About 46 billion light-years. To an accuracy equal to the diameter of a hydrogen atom.

There is no need for 1 million digits of pi, or waste 100 days to calculate trillions of digits.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/news/2016/3/16/how-many-decimals-of-pi-do-we-really-need/

I think I just printed pi on one of my school paper notebooks or something to 50 digits and used that as the cover. 3.1415xxxxxx ... heh.

What's the value of Pi?

Mathematician - 3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375105820974944592307816406286 208998628034825342117067982148086513282306647093844609550582231725359408128481
Physicist - 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716
Engineer - about 3 something

Engineers use a minimum of 3 significant digits as a rule.

..and then you use a 3x factor of safety.    (at least in civil engineering)

[AlcoHoDL]

What's the value of Pi?

Mathematician - 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510582097494459230781640628620 8998628034825342117067982148086513282306647093844609550582231725359408128481
Physicist - 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716
Engineer - about 3 something

My take on this:

Mathematician — Pi = C/d, where C is the circumference and d is the diameter of a circle (symbolic math, exact).
Physicist — Pi = 3.1415926535897932384626433832795028841972 (40 decimal places, near-zero numerical error).
Engineer — Pi = 3.1415927 (7 decimal places, sufficient for most practical applications).
Layman — Pi = 3.14 (2 decimal places, distant school memory).

As a mostly layman when it comes to maths (and sciences) funzies, could it be that one of the goals of continuing to attempt to calculate pi to further digits is to see if there might be a zero in there somewhere (I mean a last digit)? - and then we know how many actual digits pi has, rather than what seems to be an infinite number of digits without a last digit.  

We already know the answer to this: Pi has an infinite number of digits (i.e., there is no "last digit"). This is because Pi is an irrational number (it cannot be expressed as the ratio of two integers). Proof of this dates back to the 18th century (Lambert, 1761). The square root of 2 (1.414...) is another well-known irrational number.

[Gyrsur]

1 BTC = 1 BTC

or is it

1 BTC == 1 BTC

?

technically the first statement is not a boolean.

but the second statement is TRUE .  

..but if you comparejavascript:void(0); strings you have to use quotes

"1 BTC" == "1 BTC"

Put this way,

"1 BTC" = "1 BTC"

would just raise an error, right?

Well I guess a variable of "1 BTC" could recursively store itself and then lead to an "OutOfMemory" situation.

hmm, i doubt so. It's an (anonymous) string literal, which should be read-only (const).
But i got the joke and i like it
Are there "named variables" in this manner in any language you are aware of?
There are quite some freaky languages out there, like the famous INTERCAL

here you go.

Code:

fn main() {
    let a = "1 BTC";
    let b = "1 BTC";
    
    println!("1 BTC = 1 BTC -> {}", a = b);
    println!("1 BTC == 1 BTC -> {}", a == b);
}

1 BTC = 1 BTC -> 1 BTC
1 BTC == 1 BTC -> true

[nullius]

As a mostly layman when it comes to maths (and sciences) funzies, could it be that one of the goals of continuing to attempt to calculate pi to further digits is to see if there might be a zero in there somewhere (I mean a last digit)? - and then we know how many actual digits pi has, rather than what seems to be an infinite number of digits without a last digit.  

We already know the answer to this: Pi has an infinite number of digits (i.e., there is no "last digit"). This is because Pi is an irrational number (it cannot be expressed as the ratio of two integers). Proof of this dates back to the 18th century (Lambert, 1761). The square root of 2 (1.414...) is another well-known irrational number.

We all (except Jay) know that π is an irrational sonofabitch; but is he normal?  

* Wrathful nullius is the negative one, because ’e is powered to imaginary·π.

Yes, I just implied that 0 = -1.  Well, that’s not as bad as looking for the last digit of π.

[LoyceV]

1 BTC = 1 BTC

or is it

1 BTC == 1 BTC

?

technically the first statement is not a boolean.

but the second statement is TRUE .  

..but if you compare strings you have to use quotes

"1 BTC" == "1 BTC"

Put this way,

"1 BTC" = "1 BTC"

would just raise an error, right?

Well I guess a variable of "1 BTC" could recursively store itself and then lead to an "OutOfMemory" situation.

Can't we just introduce something like "in 2015 Bitcoin" as deflation adjustment, just like dollars have a inflation adjusted way of saying "in 1980 dollars"?

So:
$1 in 1980 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $3.19 today becomes: 1BTC on January 1st 2012 is equivalent in purchasing power to about 0.00008976BTC now.

[Sayeds56]

Need to finish this week over 70k or I'll probably have to give up my silly dream of home ownership. It's annoying because I have to move out of my apartment either way at the end of May and would rather not move twice but I guess it's not in the cards.

No worries! BTC will go beyond 70K and you will retain your apartment.



https://youtu.be/Hgb6vpD-EJw

[Biodom]

The fact that Musk calls his CFO a master of coin (in a SEC filing, lol) is interesting.
When something under your control is just 7-8% of your assets, you are not called a master of that, but rather a bigger "domain".

[Biodom]

https://apnews.com/article/germany-suspends-astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clotting-0ab2c4fe13370c96c873e896387eb92f

Darn it. That said, I also got a small bruise that looked like a bunch of dots (Pfizer), but ONLY in a 1cmX1cm area of the shot.
It could be nothingburger, or not, but some EU countries seem to be in a panic over it.
What other choices are out there? Sputnik and something from China plus some Pfizer?