Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

With one exception: “The scarcity is artificial.  Anyone can make perfect copies of it.”

The scarcity of ownership is artificial, but it's as real as physical scarcity. There can only be one owner. So this point is moot/baseless too, BUT my objection pertains to those goods where ownership is not needed to be able to enjoy the good. As in, picture files, digital music or similar items. The issue here is enforcing DRM based on NFTs. This could be a thing, right, but then apart from the technical details, the creator, too, should be prevented from making additional copies ("reprints") of the creation. So you release, say, a tune as a NFT, and as a consequence no radio can legally broadcast it? Or can they? You sure shouldn't be allowed to release more "declassified" copies, or you are "inflating" the supply. Or I can use the song even if I don't "own" my copy's NFT? So you decide once and for all how many copies you are releasing? Shaky technical terrain. Shakier legal terrain. IANAL. Some legislation will be needed. No, not the SEC, that's right.

Copyright laws and ownership laws already cover this. NFTs are not only unnecessary (and redundant), but not recognized by law. They bring nothing necessary that is missing to the table. And introduce new problems that don't exist.

Another solution looking for a problem that either doesn't exist, or is not really a problem.

^{(I'm gonna go out on a limb and just say it: young people are naive and stupid for believing in this NFT shitscam.)}

[d_eddie]

you: What year is it?
mad scientist that woke you up: oh, it's about a few thousand years since you died, does the year matter? gimme my 1 bitcoin, it's worth $100 billion today. Enough for me to buy a week's worth of bread. After you, I have a bunch of dead bitcoiners to wake up too, you're the 200th one, don't worry.

You: What a bleak future. No more than 21 million weeks' worth of bread on the planet! How many humans left?

[BitcoinBunny]

^ What am I going to do exactly with those dollars when dead?

I have heirs. Even if you don't have any, you'd probably like to be buried and have everything taken care of, so there are "death plans" for that purpose. A small "token" life insurance plan assigning a close friend to be beneficiary and a "dead man's switch" email saying "here, you get $100k when i died, please bury my body somewhere, or cremate it, ble bleh and keep the change."

Think: "What would a Pharaoh do?"

Edit: This would also be a good time to do the cyronics thing. If you have nothing to lose, why the fuck not? Just get the following tattoed on your forehead and put on your tank:

Hello!
In my brain is the seed code to 1 bitcoin.
Revive me and it is yours.

When 1btc is enough to buy a planet you can be SURE that people will do anything to get your mind back. Then go and withdraw your other 100 BTC and be a God in the future.

Pharaohs are mean. They killed everyone when they died. (Or everyone willingly got sacrificed for their great leader, thinking they will all accompany him to the next life.)

If you get revived, it might be possible you forget the seed code. Still, not a bad idea. You might have to spend a few corns today to get stored in deep freeze cryo cold storage... I think that's what Hal did.

If you did get revived, you should be able to remember something short and secure like an email password kind of thing. Your 12-24 word seed can be semi-private / semi-public (engraved or stamped on metal) with 0.0001 BTC in it, but you have an additional passphrase to the 1 BTC or 10 BTC stored in it. And another one with the rest of your stash.

Also depends on how you died, and if you can still be actually be revived.

For "proof", you can publish the address that contains 1 BTC. Anyone can look at any block explorer and see "hey, this dead guy is for real, wake him up damnit."


With only 100 BTC, you'll be very okay in the future, but you won't be a god. Remember, there are other gigachads who never died and have thousands of BTC, not to mention maybe the corporations that never sold are now masters of the other planets or something.

you: What year is it?
mad scientist that woke you up: oh, it's about a few thousand years since you died, does the year matter? gimme my 1 bitcoin, it's worth $100 billion today. Enough for me to buy a week's worth of bread.

With only 21 million BTC I doubt 1 BTC can ever only buy a loaf of bread unless you believe in a future where there is still digital asset trading and the population decreases 10.000 fold, regardless of the exchange rate to dollars.

It's become clear on the usually toxic area of Twitter that most newbies are glad to be even holding 1 BTC.
I reckon they will all be millionaires.
In a few years even holding 0.1BTC will be hard to achieve for newcomers. In fact, most people probably cannot achieve THAT without enormous saving effort already.
100BTC holders will live like kings, no doubt.

[YourMother]

CATASTROPHIC

RUN FOR YOUR FUCKING LIVES

Aaah, the good old days haha

I remember trolling the fuck out of the Bitcoin community along with NotLambChop and JorgeStolfi...
It's sad that those 2 fucks fell for their own FUD in the end.

8+ years later I'm retired with a close to double-digit $million fortune. What an incredible experience it's been. Traded so many shitcoins I thought I would end up broke.

Congrats to everyone who made it.

[Dabs]

You make a CD, and someone will rip it to an mp3 format with no DRM....

It's already being done on things like iTunes or Spotify, while most people will pay a monthly fee, there are those who decrypt the downloaded ogg files so they can play them offline in any other device. Or find ways to download the songs.

And doing analog recordings (then back to digital) also work, but that's a rather roundabout way of doing it.

[Dabs]

you: What year is it?
mad scientist that woke you up: oh, it's about a few thousand years since you died, does the year matter? gimme my 1 bitcoin, it's worth $100 billion today. Enough for me to buy a week's worth of bread. After you, I have a bunch of dead bitcoiners to wake up too, you're the 200th one, don't worry.

You: What a bleak future. No more than 21 million weeks' worth of bread on the planet! How many humans left?

That's actually a bright future, if you are assuming all currency or goods can only be bought with bitcoins. That means bitcoin took over all monetary systems already.

[BitcoinBunny]

CATASTROPHIC

RUN FOR YOUR FUCKING LIVES

Aaah, the good old days haha

I remember trolling the fuck out of the Bitcoin community along with NotLambChop and JorgeStolfi...
It's sad that those 2 fucks fell for their own FUD in the end.

8+ years later I'm retired with a close to double-digit $million fortune. What an incredible experience it's been. Traded so many shitcoins I thought I would end up broke.

Congrats to everyone who made it.

You're sending this from the year 2023+ in the future?
What's BTC worth?
 

Congrats btw.

[Dabs]

8+ years later I'm retired with a close to double-digit $million fortune. What an incredible experience it's been. Traded so many shitcoins I thought I would end up broke.

Congrats to everyone who made it.

Congrats. You should be able to live the rest of your life very comfortably even if nothing else happens from now. $5m invested in "safe" investments will return at least $200k per year on 4%. Your double digit fortune should probably and likely will triple or more in the years to come, if they are still in bitcoin.

At this point, it's a very good idea to just HODL as much as you can, maybe cash out what you think you need for the next couple of years or more, and live within that budget.

[d_eddie]

Copyright law already covers this. NFTs are not only unnecessary, but not recognized by law. They bring nothing necessary that is missing to the table. And introduce new problems that don't exist.

Another solution looking for a problem that either doesn't exist, or is not really a problem.

^{(I'm gonna go out on a limb and just say it: young people are naive and stupid for believing in this NFT shitscam.)}

I think NFTs could ease and lubricate the trade of original limited edition art - but only for the traders: people who invest in art for its transfer of value over time. The enjoyment of said art is totally out of the equation here, which sounds a little weird when speaking about art. Besides, the applicability of these tokens to mass market production such as digital music or desktop pictures seems dubious at least.

More useful if it comes to adoption for other physical/semi-physical assets: stocks and gold are prime examples, as I said. Wherever re-hypothecation can be a problem. The tech should be much more refined to allow the tracking of each "item" (be it a single stock ar a specific ingot) singularly and in batches in a mathematically clever way.

Interesting times ahead, gentlemen.

[Richy_T]

As for the term "Life Insurance", I interpret it as a pension (a lump sum and/or monthly payment) after a certain age, say, 60 y/o.

Life insurance presented as investments are typically really bad at being investments. Better to buy pure insurance and invest the difference. You don't expect car insurance to buy you a new car, after all.

[d_eddie]

you: What year is it?
mad scientist that woke you up: oh, it's about a few thousand years since you died, does the year matter? gimme my 1 bitcoin, it's worth $100 billion today. Enough for me to buy a week's worth of bread. After you, I have a bunch of dead bitcoiners to wake up too, you're the 200th one, don't worry.

You: What a bleak future. No more than 21 million weeks' worth of bread on the planet! How many humans left?

That's actually a bright future, if you are assuming all currency or goods can only be bought with bitcoins. That means bitcoin took over all monetary systems already.

Yes, a wild financial assumption. It is unimportant to know how much it turns out to be when expressed in dollars. What matters is the total economic output of humanity as it relates to 21 million coins. Let's assume you can also buy things with dollars, or gold, or salt, or water. Let's assume the weeks' worth on bread on the planet are 21 billion instead - or 210. Do these assumptions change the picture much?

[BitcoinBunny]

8+ years later I'm retired with a close to double-digit $million fortune. What an incredible experience it's been. Traded so many shitcoins I thought I would end up broke.

Congrats to everyone who made it.

Congrats. You should be able to live the rest of your life very comfortably even if nothing else happens from now. $5m invested in "safe" investments will return at least $200k per year on 4%. Your double digit fortune should probably and likely will triple or more in the years to come, if they are still in bitcoin.

I see people mention such high interest rate figures here but nothing seems "safe" to me except for perhaps a property portfolio and protected banks only pay 0.5% if you are lucky.

[Richy_T]

You know it's surprising how many people still approach me with the alt coin story "My mate had a buddy say Hex is the next big thing so do you think..."

This is my friend every time we speak. Unfortunately some of his other friends made (or claim to have made) a bunch of money on Bitcoin before messing with the alts so have some superficial credibility. I've tried to explain the pump & dump nature of alts (and how there are more than seven thousand of them so I don't really have any opinion on more than a handful [and most of that is bad]) but I think he only got the message when he got his fingers burnt.

[Dabs]

As for the term "Life Insurance", I interpret it as a pension (a lump sum and/or monthly payment) after a certain age, say, 60 y/o.

Life insurance presented as investments are typically really bad at being investments. Better to buy pure insurance and invest the difference. You don't expect car insurance to buy you a new car, after all.

Term Life is what I got. I used to work in the insurance industry many years ago, and we got a crash course in the stuff that is normally offered, plus the advice of my own dad, he said, just get term life to cover anything such as children's expenses / education.

Once we all graduated and got our useless degrees, my dad stopped his term life insurance and said, if anything happens to him, we are on our own, he got us this far already.


As for vehicle insurance, there are some policies that will replace the car if you total it or for theft. The premium is also higher. I've had the unfortunate incident of having a pickup stolen in broad daylight parked in a large mall. The insurance company could not replace it with an identical model, but gave us the 4WD version of it, so we got an upgrade actually.

But lost are all the contents of that car as well (not much, but still, some personal items in the glove box maybe.)

[Dabs]

8+ years later I'm retired with a close to double-digit $million fortune. What an incredible experience it's been. Traded so many shitcoins I thought I would end up broke.

Congrats to everyone who made it.

Congrats. You should be able to live the rest of your life very comfortably even if nothing else happens from now. $5m invested in "safe" investments will return at least $200k per year on 4%. Your double digit fortune should probably and likely will triple or more in the years to come, if they are still in bitcoin.

I see people mention such high interest rate figures here but nothing seems "safe" to me except for perhaps a property portfolio and protected banks only pay 0.5% if you are lucky.

4% is the oft-considered SWR or Safe Withdrawal Rate. It's based on a study by some folks from Trinity University studying stock market returns and backtesting them over 30 year periods. They used historical data from 1926-2009 and tested various rolling periods (i.e. for 30-year retirements, they tested 1926-1955, 1927-1958, 1928-1957,…,1980-2009).

Basically, the 4% applies to a 60/40 equities/bonds ratio portfolio, typically the S&P 500 or the Total Stock Market Funds and bonds, typically all US. Some do global or international.

Here is a favorite calculator to play with: https://firecalc.com/

The default values there imply a 95% success rate starting with $750k and withdrawing $30k per year for 30 years.

[shahzadafzal]

Dont swing trade! 

Sauce?

Source or sauce?

https://www.google.com/search?q=sauce+instead+of+source&rlz=1CDGOYI_enAE928AE928&oq=sa&aqs=chrome.1.69i60j69i59l2j69i60l2j69i65.2136j0j4&hl=en-US&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

[Karartma1]

8+ years later I'm retired with a close to double-digit $million fortune. What an incredible experience it's been. Traded so many shitcoins I thought I would end up broke.

Congrats to everyone who made it.

Congrats. You should be able to live the rest of your life very comfortably even if nothing else happens from now. $5m invested in "safe" investments will return at least $200k per year on 4%. Your double digit fortune should probably and likely will triple or more in the years to come, if they are still in bitcoin.

I see people mention such high interest rate figures here but nothing seems "safe" to me except for perhaps a property portfolio and protected banks only pay 0.5% if you are lucky.

4% is the oft-considered SWR or Safe Withdrawal Rate. It's based on a study by some folks from Trinity University studying stock market returns and backtesting them over 30 year periods. They used historical data from 1926-2009 and tested various rolling periods (i.e. for 30-year retirements, they tested 1926-1955, 1927-1958, 1928-1957,…,1980-2009).

Basically, the 4% applies to a 60/40 equities/bonds ratio portfolio, typically the S&P 500 or the Total Stock Market Funds and bonds, typically all US. Some do global or international.

Here is a favorite calculator to play with: https://firecalc.com/

The default values there imply a 95% success rate starting with $750k and withdrawing $30k per year for 30 years.

Fantastic! Thanks man! Merit him I'm poor.

[BitcoinBunny]

Dont swing trade! 

Sauce?

Source or sauce?

https://www.google.com/search?q=sauce+instead+of+source&rlz=1CDGOYI_enAE928AE928&oq=sa&aqs=chrome.1.69i60j69i59l2j69i60l2j69i65.2136j0j4&hl=en-US&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

In that case Riley Reid but I have no idea which movie/scene.

[Dabs]

We know the ultimate safe haven asset is bitcoin. Soon others will realize this too. However, much of our spending and living expenses will still be paid in fiat. Purse is a nice one, been getting 25% to 33% discounts on everything I put there, I just need to wait patiently for the stuff to arrive.

[Richy_T]

As for vehicle insurance, there are some policies that will replace the car if you total it or for theft. The premium is also higher. I've had the unfortunate incident of having a pickup stolen in broad daylight parked in a large mall. The insurance company could not replace it with an identical model, but gave us the 4WD version of it, so we got an upgrade actually.

True. I should have been more specific that I meant as a general outcome of owning the insurance rather than as a result of loss or damage of the vehicle. I'm still on my first coffee.