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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (1.1%)
7/28 - 11 (11.6%)
8/4 - 16 (16.8%)
8/11 - 7 (7.4%)
8/18 - 5 (5.3%)
8/25 - 7 (7.4%)
After August - 48 (50.5%)
Total Voters: 95

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26448594 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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April 07, 2021, 05:11:30 PM

Damn, where is V8s?  Sad

It must be depressing to be a conservative.  In the long run, you always lose the culture wars:

It must be exhausting to be constantly on the wrong side of history

You are beginning to show signs of cottoning on, so partial congrats.
It is indeed quite exhausting and sometimes depressing keeping standards up, fighting for calm, common sense and decency, batting away immature boundary-testers with our innovative blue-died water, our cunning fire-setting in the jungle and our nods to your 'diversity' in the very House of Commons.
While I am delighted you seem to think these seeming gains for socialism counter the deals we make behind the scenes which actually run the world, I am saddened that you show no signs of knowing how long the long run is. I demand a more far-thinking opponent.

Ded...


Just like Gentlemand and Lauda...



RIP to all those now ded ones.

We cannot live forever, unless we be a bots

 Cry Cry Cry

^^^ "de-bozo"... That's a nice one!

The act of "de-bozoenoing" someone out of shitcoinery...  Grin

FTFY

you will thank me later.  perhaps?
 Wink

Man, the 59-60k range is proving to be a right pain in the ass

Does it mean that you are "bored?"

For me, there is a Lindy effect feeling that is going on.. call me LindyJGee.. or maybe I should solicit a change to my nym?

For us this 59-57-59 daily action is quite boring, but for the daily traders who follow the trend it is like living in a scary movie (which they put themselves into because of their stupidity). I guess they screem like little girls when selling with a "stop" loss each day, until their "stop" loss adds up to a complete loss of their resourses. I am lazy to write the code counting all their losses, but it seems that the turning point when these weak hands will be removed from the game is quite near.

Edit. I've just noticed that the volume of the latest stop loss is 4-5x bigger than the previous dips in the last days. So there is a good chance that this will be the last dip before breaking 60K and heading towards 100K in the next weeks.

Bold assertion.. if I do say so my lil selfie.

 Undecided

Bored is definitely something I am not, got way too much going on in my life to be that way. Impatient would describe my feelings better haha

No need to be "impatient" about our mutual lillie fiend my little friend.

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April 07, 2021, 05:11:46 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1), Hueristic (1)

Oh fuck of will you.
No, you.
All your merits have been revoked.
IDGAF and never did. I've been a member since 2012 and had to look up how merits worked last month because meaningless internet points don't mean anything.

Keep that head in the sand.
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April 07, 2021, 05:27:15 PM
Last edit: April 07, 2021, 05:48:04 PM by Richy_T

When your brain is in it's prime (maybe between 10 years old and 35 - just guessing), you could memorize 24 words in an hour or so.. As you get older, or if you might start to suffer deteriorations, you might need a day or even up to a week... so a week at most for memorizing 24 words - absent some cognitive impairment.

Building the words into a story would probably be the way to go. Rote memorization of arbitrary things is difficult.


I understand with some hoop jumping that lightning network could have been built without Segwit, but isn't Segwit a foundational layer to lightning network being practically developed? - so in other words, there might not be any need to tout the underlying technology of lightning network (Segwit) even though it is a kind of necessary condition that makes lightning network way more practical... and of course, other second layer solutions that are likely to continue to develop in the years to come are also built upon Segwit - again without having to tout Segwit because Segwit is just a done deal.. so over that.. from August 2017 (even though some folks whined for months and months and months about Segwit, but their whining is kind of (absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..) drying up after 3.5 years when they are kind of figuring out that the whining is not really doing much, if any, good..(absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..) because Segwit is just so much a part of our current little fiend, aka bitcoin and the transition to Segwit is so over, done and kuput. and no need to really talk about it(absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..).

Segwit absolutely was being touted as a capacity increase, being as how, theoretically, it allows around 4 times the data. The truth is, however, with segwit, block sizes have plateaued at 1.3MB, a trivial 30% increase and it must be remembered that segwit transactions are bigger than traditional bitcoin transactions too.

I don't think it's pertinent to not mention the issue because, simply, it hasn't gone away, as much as it may make some uncomfortable and want to stick their fingers in their ears and shout "la la la", it's an ongoing problem. I regularly see old principles of Bitcoin touted here, fungibility, low friction, security and so on, but the truth is that the capacity issue restricts that and other potential advantages, just as the 56k modems we are currently flinging around images of would have crippled streaming if we hadn't moved beyond them. I'll also add that I'm not throwing this out there randomly but only mentioning it when it is relevant (in this case, in reference as to why alts have stolen so much of the market share).

Now, although I don't buy into it, the argument that increased block size would damage decentralization could be made but that doesn't mean that you get to ignore those other very real effects of limiting it. Listing pros and cons doesn't involve just throwing away things that don't go your way and pretending that very real things that are happening aren't is not a good way to have a good handle on reality. $20+ fees do not provide a good on-ramp to Bitcoin. Where do you think people are going to go?
OutOfMemory
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April 07, 2021, 06:03:26 PM

Poor again.
Come on show us your new buy orders?  

Au contraire, I just fired off a transaction to load some coin onto the exchange. Not sure when I'm going to pull the trigger, but going to take another low 7 digits in profit to calm me down. Shouldn't need to sell any more until the ranch gets nearer to completion; at least a year away.

Heard back from our accountant, and quarterly reporting is pushed out for another month, so I have more time for a price recovery. Would like to go at least a full quarter before I consider selling again, and even then, that'll likely be a big *IF* depending on circumstances.
Oh, yeah, you have different tax laws in the states.
For example, when i sell BTC, it is considered to be the "oldest" corn i bought so far. If i buy a whole BTC in 2019, buy another one a year later and sell it some weeks later on an exchange, it's tax free, because the tax officials consider this as a sell of the "old" BTC from 2019. You don't have that advantage, afaik.
This is quite effective against daytraders evading taxation, makes some sense in the end.
But laws can be changed, and the EU started to think about that recently  Undecided

EDIT: Did the cat bounce already and we had the bottom now?
(that's what my adjusted lines suggest)
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April 07, 2021, 06:06:40 PM

Of course, there are some other ways to acquire BTC, such as getting paid for providing goods or services or mining.. but I am largely trying to focus in on the implicit suggestions of some of the various earlier posts that seem to be battling with where exactly selling fits into any bitcoin strategy, and surely I am trying to emphasize that if you have not yet reached your accumulation goals then selling with a hope of buying back lower remains a kind of gambling approach rather than a prudent approach...

Sure, on this particular point, philip, you and I seem to NOT be very far apart, and in the end, guys can do whatever they want, even though maybe both you and I will be suggesting them to be fools if they are regularly and ongoingly fucking around with selling some or any large portion of their BTC in order to attempt to buy back lower.

That's the dilemma even if you commit not to sell any large amount but a small to sell at "high" and buy back "low"...  you don't know when this will happen....

No doubt that each of us has to find our own balance in this regard, and none of us are likely to come to exactly the same conclusion, even though there might be some closenesses when weighing all of the factors that each of us should be taking into account when both establishing our bitcoin strategy and then trying to follow something that achieves our balances in regards to each of the individual factors.. which again for reminder sake are: cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and skills, time and abilities to plan, learn along the way and tweak in accordance with learning which may end up involving reallocating from time to time and even  trading.   

So yeah if you are fairly young, then the timeline aspect can screw you up in terms of establishing an accumulation goal but then having to figure out how much that you would actually need to pull the fuck you lever in order to sustain yourself which could be a quite daunting projection in terms of the number of years or even your earning power if you are ONLY late 20s or early 30s as compared to someone who already entered into their 60s and likely has a much shorter time horizon and might not feel so compelled to conquer the world in terms of ongoing earning power.

I am still kind of assuming that you, shahzadafzal, are contemplating the top or possible tops in terms of your desire to accumulate more BTC, and you have not even come close to reaching your BTC accumulation goal, and that is part of the reason that you are expressing some anxiety in terms of what can be done (on a personal action level from yourself) in regards to BTC price swings that we largely know to be inevitable, but we really have few clues as to exactly when they might come - even if there are all kinds of trading theories including waves and some of that other bullshit that we could try to plug into bitcoin as a less mature asset class but has its own price performance models that help us to figure out how bitcoin's likely price performance fits into the other trading models.

So, yeah, I am largely suggesting NOT to be selling any BTC when you are in early accumulation phase, even if we might end up getting a 80% or some other extreme correction from here.. but once you have a decent hand on your accumulation goal, you might well be able to shave some off along the way (so long as you are ready to suck that conversion to dollars up in the event that the BTC price keeps going up in spite your anticipation that there was going to be a correction.. so in that regards, your sales are at such a level that you do not give any shits if the price goes up or the price goes down.. not easy to get to such an emotionally detached status both financially and psychologically).. but formulas for actually figuring out what you should do or could do can be worked out.. and if you have not yet reached your BTC accumulation goal likely should involve aspects of ongoing DCA, buying on dips and HODL... .. and yeah, you want to incorporate selling into the formula.. I know I know.. and I do not recommend, unless it is very small amounts and  a kind of profit taking kind of formula.. consider the (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan raking solution (even though rpietila.. rest in peace, was far from sane, there are some good ideas contained in that thread).

I have to confess here that when this year BTC hit $40k i did thought of selling "some" ... but I did not (thanks God) and however later sold "some" at $54k and $53k... just to buy back later.. i never cashed it out... but now I have been waiting since then to buy it back Sad

Well, some people consider various kinds of formulas in which they can start selling some BTC once they reach 2x on their holdings, so then maybe shaving off 10% for every time that it doubles again.. or there can be variations of such formulas including when to start (beginning at 5x or whatever), what increments to sell.. every 10%, 50% or some other rise and how much to shave off.  1%, 5% or whatever.. you can make a lot of different variations of the selling formula and many variations of how much of a drop that you would need before buying back, if at all... you can consider the matter as cash off the table or cash to reinvest into bitcoin and/or even apportion.. half is for rebuying and the other half is off the table.. blah blah blah..


So what are other ways to acquire BTC? mining atm is not an option for obvious reasons... providing goods and services.. there aren't many..

Well, if you work your fucking ass off in various ways, you can use money from what you have earned to buy bitcoin, including figuring out ways to cut your living expenses, such as vapourminer's favorite ramen noodles.. and you can use some or all of the saved money to buy bitcoin.  You can also forestall on making expensive purchases, including depreciating assets, and consider whether it is practical to own such an asset or decide to rent a $2k per month property that you can rent out 2/3 of it for $1,500 and only pay $500 per month in rent rather than getting a place for $1k per month in which you would have to pay all the expenses, which could give you $500 or more in money to invest into bitcoin.  Of course, your age, your skills and your ingenuity could make differences, and sometimes, luck can help too.. but maybe you prepare for being able to get x, y or z lucrative job, but you end up with luck and you get the xyz job that ends up being a better one than you had even contemplated but your preparations had help to put you in such a position.


here on bitciontalk i never got convinced enough from signature campaigns which force you to post 15-20 posts per week and pays you what $20??

If you are going to post anyhow, it might be just bonus money, but sure, I agree that the signature campaigns are seeming to pay a lot less than what they used to pay.. but changing times do affect options, too.

how about the time you spent writing those post does it worth. I can't do that most of the time i will be in reading mode here on bitciontalk...

You have to decide for yourself what is your status in terms of accumulation and if you need to be spending time in more lucrative activities.  On a personal level, I have largely been on the forum for a bit over 7 years, but largely I had already reached a quasi-retirement status when I came to the forum.... and in my case, I had some business that I was involved in (in 2014, 2015 and 2016.. that I was trying to figure out ways to wrap up and get out of .. which also took several years to sort out.... but did not exactly require me to have to earn money from it.. even while I was trying to wrap it up. .. which probably ended up taking way more time than it should have.. but again personal choices regarding how to spend time and how much money is needed to be earned from some of the chosen activities.. or maybe what other benefits are derived from certain hobbies - such as maintaining health through exercise, even though it does not make any money)..  so each of us is in a different position.

now please don't hate me and let me ask what "other ways to acquire BTC"??... So sh*tting around with shitcoins, is this an option?

Of course, you are going to get hate for your wanting to talk about shitcoins in this here thread... not that it might not be a potentially valid way of gaining more bitcoin (and maybe scamming others out of their bitcoin?), but it is NOT on topic in this here thread.... because, in part, such shitcoin topics have tendencies to devolve into shitcoin pumpenings, bitcoin naysaying and a lot of distracting off-topic devolutions, distractions and nonsense.. and ain't nobody got time for dat!!!! at least not in these here parts.. so take your shitcoin contemplations and brainstormenings to udder parts of the forum.. there are udder parts of the forum for those kinds of contemplations and brainstormenings (that are potentially valid, but off topic in these here parts).
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April 07, 2021, 06:45:36 PM

A very bullish Bloomberg report (analysis is here, the actual report is linked within):
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/in-bullish-report-bloomberg-predicts-400000-bitcoin-price-in-2021


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April 07, 2021, 07:00:25 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

We all know the rules of the game and rule # 1

"Don't invest more than you can afford to lose."

If HODLING is the strategy then selling and buy are the tactics.


Here's my post warning people about "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" when the price was $325.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=843822.0
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April 07, 2021, 07:13:57 PM

... Where do you think people are going to go?

They can (and have) gone to BCH or BSV. You still sound a like a big blocker even if you say you're not. Segwit has lowered the fees that otherwise non-segwit transactions would pay.

My most recent transaction today cost me $5. (or 0.0001 BTC). It confirmed or got included in a block in about 20 minutes after it was broadcast.
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April 07, 2021, 07:20:33 PM

We all know the rules of the game and rule # 1

"Don't invest more than you can afford to lose."

If HODLING is the strategy then selling and buy are the tactics.


Here's my post warning people about "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" when the price was $325.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=843822.0

It was f-g brilliant, albeit we bottomed at more than 20% down from there ($170 vs $325), but who is counting?  Grin.
Incidentally, that was about when Taihuttu sold his house and everything else for btc and became a traveling btc nomad.
I wish that I was a bit more of an aggressive buyer back then or in 2015 during our "flat btc" era, but you can't buy 'them all.

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April 07, 2021, 07:20:44 PM

Ok, in all seriousness, everyone knows this thing is on the verge of a collapse, right? Double top. Low volume. Get out while you still can.

That's more like it, lol  Grin
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April 07, 2021, 07:30:16 PM
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Yes... yes... yes.. I get the symbolic element in regards to this disclosure.. but to elaborate on the theme, a wee bit.... I am going to assume that you have other buy orders, as well (both lower and higher).. but hey.. no need to jeopardize opsec, rrrrrrrrriiiiiiigggggghhhhhttt?

By the way, currently, I have BTC buy orders down to about $10k, they start in the $54ks and they are about $1k apart... and yeah, I do not really expect any orders below $25k or so to have any kind of long-shot chance of filling... but I do get some comfort in enjoying a kind of luxury to be able to  maintain buy orders down to $10k-ish.

Another thingie-ma-jiggie on my end is that I both made a purchase with bitcoin (recently) and I also accidentally left a BTC sell order "on the books," that ended up filling.. and in the whole scheme of things, in recent times, I did end up closing some of my outstanding  sub $10k orders and those largely ended up being the BTC buy orders that I set in the $53k and $54k range - otherwise maybe my BTC buy orders would not have started until in the $52ks.. but whatever.. gaps between my sales and my buys are getting bigger in terms of dollar amounts and maybe even gravitating a bit more beyond my preferred percentage amounts, too.. Not necessarily a bad thing, even though I do get a bit anxious and sometimes wish to experience a bit more action when NO orders are filling for seemingly significant periods of time... so there remain dilemma feelings about wanting to have passivity and inaction, while at the same time getting a bit bored and wanting to be doing something.
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April 07, 2021, 08:00:03 PM

We all know the rules of the game and rule # 1

"Don't invest more than you can afford to lose."

If HODLING is the strategy then selling and buy are the tactics.


Here's my post warning people about "Don't invest more than you can afford to lose" when the price was $325.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=843822.0

How many times do I have to repeat this:

always invest what you can afford to lose.

Cool
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April 07, 2021, 08:11:43 PM

They can (and have) gone to BCH or BSV. You still sound a like a big blocker even if you say you're not. Segwit has lowered the fees that otherwise non-segwit transactions would pay.

I have not said I am not a big blocker and indeed, I am one (though I am generally not going to be pushing it on this thread, I will bring it up when problems caused by restricted block size are discussed). It has just proven that a chain fork is not the solution. That doesn't mean the problem isn't still there.

My most recent transaction today cost me $5. (or 0.0001 BTC). It confirmed or got included in a block in about 20 minutes after it was broadcast.

And two weeks ago, I had a transaction that would have a fee of $20 equivalent for decent inclusion time. Fluctuating fees compound the problem, not alleviate it. I ended up disposing of some litecoin I had trashing up my Ledger instead.
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April 07, 2021, 08:13:13 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), Kylapoiss (1)

If for some reason you decided to buy your first BTC this morning around 9AM forum time, that sucks.

Cool

What's wrong with that?

There are a lot of peeps without coins, and don't you know about the expression about the best time to buy bitcoin?

Well the answer is the best time to buy bitcoin was yesterday, which then leads us to a question about the second best time to buy bitcoin, and that would be today.

so there you have it.

Get the fuck in.. you many no coiners that are out there (of course I am not referring to you, frienzie wenzie)Wink


If for some reason you decided to buy your first BTC this morning around 9AM forum time, that sucks.

Cool

Buying the top and hodling hard beyond a new ATH is part of the transformation to a Bitcoiner, isn't it?

If it doesn't kill you, it makes you poorer.

Now that's the birth of a new proverb  Cool

Quote
What doesn't kill you makes you poorer richer!

FTFY.

Why poorer? If anything, HoDLers came out so much richer after 2017...

Instead, mindrust is dead (read: nocoiner) and poor.

Yep..... mindrust.. so damned close, but yet so far...

that is if the whole situation is true..

but anyhow, to get so close to being able to power through it.. and then just throwing everything out the window (again, if true.. because ongoingly it just seems to amazing to actually believe.. and maybe that is part of the reason that many of us keep bringing it up)...

A fact of the matter does remain that many of us do not need to hear about extreme examples, such as mindrust, in order to appreciate that there are a decent amount of less extreme scenarios in which guys are selling way too many bitcoins too soon.... but even bitcoin can be quite forgiving to the ones who are not selling 100% because they still look like geniuses when they might end up with ONLY 40% or even less of their original stash... maybe in the case of mindrust, he also appears decently smart because even though he had 10 BTC, he still has around 1BTC plus the many shitcoins that he owns.. so maybe in terms of dollars, he is looking pretty smart (even though many of us recognize the severity of what had been left on the table in his case - and thereby the opportunity costs that played out with his situation in particular.. and might be part of the reason that he has discontinued popping his head into this thread because almost no matter what he says.. absent some BIG ass admission of fuck up and getting the fuck back on the bitcoin wagon, will be bashed the fuck out of).
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April 07, 2021, 08:21:50 PM

Ok, in all seriousness, everyone knows this thing is on the verge of a collapse, right? Double top. Low volume. Get out while you still can.

No time for actions, watching Bayern-Psg .....
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April 07, 2021, 08:22:51 PM

Train has left the station JJG so cancel all 10-15k order.  Tongue
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April 07, 2021, 08:28:10 PM


https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1379770685401268229?s=20
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April 07, 2021, 08:31:37 PM

Ok, in all seriousness, everyone knows this thing is on the verge of a collapse, right? Double top. Low volume. Get out while you still can.

Exactamente!!!!

The singing llama is back..


Welcome back singing llama(#nohomo).

 Wink


Train has left the station JJG so cancel all 10-15k order.  Tongue

Hahahahaha

Nice lil troll there buddy.

 Tongue Tongue


Not gonna do it  (of course, I do have preset circumstances within my already existing system that would allow for the cancelling of such buy orders in the event of certain factual events, but the setting forth of those exceptions to the rule would be besides the point of this post.. in which dee buy orders (down to extremes) remain.. largely "because I can,"  and I give no shits...... hahahahahahahaha)....

The subtext, of course, is that LN also has issues (not least requiring on-chain capacity) that also make it not a solution and people need to pull their heads out of the sand about why Bitcoin is losing market share.

Oh gawd...

Bitcoin is losing market share.. what a bunch of bullshit to be spouting out this nonsense, again.
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April 07, 2021, 08:37:22 PM

Train has left the station JJG so cancel all 10-15k order.  Tongue

Hahahahaha

Nice lil troll there buddy.

-snip snip snip-

Come on now JJG, it takes a whole hell of a fucking wide definitioning of "troll" in order that said definitioning could possibly include a peep advising the removening of stale underpricened buy ordenings, to the extent that this peep is actually seeming to suggest that. Amirite?


(Is imitation the highest form of flatterening?)
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April 07, 2021, 08:56:33 PM
Last edit: April 07, 2021, 09:07:39 PM by JayJuanGee

Train has left the station JJG so cancel all 10-15k order.  Tongue

Hahahahaha

Nice lil troll there buddy.

-snip snip snip-

Come on now JJG, it takes a whole hell of a fucking wide definitioning of "troll" in order that said definitioning could possibly include a peep advising the removening of stale underpricened buy ordenings, to the extent that this peep is actually seeming to suggest that. Amirite?


(Is imitation the highest form of flatterening?)

Well, there might be some rightness in your unrightness.**

I will grant you that.. good ole buddy.  #nohomo    Tongue   Tongue

By the way, you can get 99% of the WO gang to "come after me" on this point, and I already got my system that I have been working on since about mid 2015.. so not going to change it.. took me like 5.5 years to build up those buy orders and to have such a wonderful cushion of libertad.  

Sucks to be anyone who has been in the BTC game in some kind of similar situation as what mine was who does not have a lot of cash in reserves.. that's part of my sympathy thinkenings in regards to those kinds of folks who have failed and refused to pee pare their lil selfies adequately both psychologically and financially, currently...

Of course, no two peeps are exactly alike, but feeling pretty damned good (and smug) these days.. to have an investment that is likely around more than 10x of the tops that were contemplated upon getting into this bad boy #justsaying.   Cool

** Note: Personally, I do not necessarily consider all trolling as a "negative" thing.  Accordingly, a somewhat broad appreciation of trolling could be considered as focusing on some particular individual circumstances and continuing to come back to the topic in a kind of persistent way.... so in that regard, I have been trolling phillipma1957 quite a bit in recent months... and I do not really have bad intentions about it, but I am still tending to kind of harassing him about a variety of circumstances and kind of harping on and repeating themes in various posts responding to him.. in recent times...

Fact of the matter is that I am not really that bothered by some of the trolling that I am suggesting in this regard.. at least, not so far.. because it has not really gotten to very negative levels, yet.. .


Ok, in all seriousness, everyone knows this thing is on the verge of a collapse, right? Double top. Low volume. Get out while you still can.

Thanks for the tip, sold all my stash. Thank god I got out when still ahead.


Cut your looses, gooses!!!!

You will thank me, and my good ole buddy proudhon later... perhaps.

Yall selling today or hodling?
My gut is saying sell and watch for 52k.
My mind says do the opposite of what everyone else is doing and gobble some up.
They are both wrong 50% of the time.   Undecided

Buy if it goes down and sell if it goes up (but don't sell too much).   Wink
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