Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dabs]

PoS ain't happening for Bitcoin. Sure, any altcoin can do it, go ahead.

I agree.  Sort of.  But what stops there from being a fork backed by this "initiative"?

I hope you are right... Maybe I forgot that bitcoin does not give a crap about any "Crypto somethingornother Initiative".

Nothing. Forks happen. It will be... a .. "fork", and not Bitcoin, even if they use the same name. Bitcoin Gold, Diamond, Black, Cash, SV, ... BitcoinFork... does not matter.

We will have an opportunity to split whatever fork coins they make. It's all going back to Bitcoin.

Going to continue as the devil's advocate here, trying to think adversarially.

If they do this they will have a lot of money and high level marketing behind it along with the attention of politicians.  I think it could be a bumpier road than the last fork adventure.

And ... what about all the miners and all time hash rates? They're going to stick to the original. The fork can do PoS if they want.

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[d_eddie]

Buying the top and hodling hard beyond a new ATH is part of the transformation to a Bitcoiner, isn't it?

If it doesn't kill you, it makes you poorer.

Now that's the birth of a new proverb  

What doesn't kill you makes you poorer

+1 WOsMerit

Covered a "boring" one for you 

[d_eddie]

PoS ain't happening for Bitcoin. Sure, any altcoin can do it, go ahead.

I agree.  Sort of.  But what stops there from being a fork backed by this "initiative"?

I hope you are right... Maybe I forgot that bitcoin does not give a crap about any "Crypto somethingornother Initiative".

Nothing. Forks happen. It will be... a .. "fork", and not Bitcoin, even if they use the same name. Bitcoin Gold, Diamond, Black, Cash, SV, ... BitcoinFork... does not matter.

We will have an opportunity to split whatever fork coins they make. It's all going back to Bitcoin.

Going to continue as the devil's advocate here, trying to think adversarially.

If they do this they will have a lot of money and high level marketing behind it along with the attention of politicians.  I think it could be a bumpier road than the last fork adventure.

And ... what about all the miners and all time hash rates? They're going to stick to the original. The fork can do PoS if they want.

Yes @cAPSLOCK, it's just sour coffee, likely. Real sharkwhales should know better what happens when you fork around with the badger. See that Chinese motherfucker, he also had many miners under his thumb given his control of the hardware supply chain. How much good did it do to bcash lol? Let them make BTC-PoS, or any other aptly named POS coin (notice the acronym already includes the proper prefix for this kind of coins).

A. I'm sure all the invested miners will turn themselves belly up for the final death strike. Heavyweights will sell all their bags, Elon, Michael and all the others. As we will. Everyone will accept it as hard payment. It will go to the moon and beyond. The new shitcoin will rule the world.

B. If anything like that happens, we'll need to time our shitbag dumping to maximize the bonus fork prize. Smart forecasters needed!

A little game: which of the two is my real position?

[WhyFhy]

Yall selling today or hodling?
My gut is saying sell and watch for 52k.
My mind says do the opposite of what everyone else is doing and gobble some up.
They are both wrong 50% of the time.   

[d_eddie]

Ok, in all seriousness, everyone knows this thing is on the verge of a collapse, right? Double top. Low volume. Get out while you still can.

Thank you!! We were starting to worry, uncertain whether to hold on a little more or dump eet right now.

[cAPSLOCK]

PoS ain't happening for Bitcoin. Sure, any altcoin can do it, go ahead.

I agree.  Sort of.  But what stops there from being a fork backed by this "initiative"?

I hope you are right... Maybe I forgot that bitcoin does not give a crap about any "Crypto somethingornother Initiative".

Nothing. Forks happen. It will be... a .. "fork", and not Bitcoin, even if they use the same name. Bitcoin Gold, Diamond, Black, Cash, SV, ... BitcoinFork... does not matter.

We will have an opportunity to split whatever fork coins they make. It's all going back to Bitcoin.

Going to continue as the devil's advocate here, trying to think adversarially.

If they do this they will have a lot of money and high level marketing behind it along with the attention of politicians.  I think it could be a bumpier road than the last fork adventure.

And ... what about all the miners and all time hash rates? They're going to stick to the original. The fork can do PoS if they want.

Ah yes.  That's a tremendous point.  So miners and USAF type users will definitely be aligned in this scenario unlike last time.  That's a fairly large contingent.  I think the majority of influential DEVs are also all in the PoW camp.

I am still not ready to write off the possibility of this agenda getting pushed.

That said, what I think is GOOD about this group is they may be able to figure out some interoperability for their platforms by using something like Liquid, or even establishing their own trusted or federated ledger so that you can do transfers between themn off chain.  Again, I will not likely be using any of these services in any meaningful amount.  But MANY will.

Ugh.  Someone whose opinion I respect (Beautyon the Aztec.co fellow) also seems to have gone down the more paranoid thought path about this same issue...  He makes some good points... but sounds even more alarmed than me.



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1379710923888279552.html

[ivomm]

Yall selling today or hodling?
My gut is saying sell and watch for 52k.
My mind says do the opposite of what everyone else is doing and gobble some up.
They are both wrong 50% of the time.   

Sell now all your 0.000001BTC. Then rebuy at 59K. Rinse and repeat!

[JimboToronto]

Ok, in all seriousness, everyone knows this thing is on the verge of a collapse, right? Double top. Low volume. Get out while you still can.

Thank you!! We were starting to worry, uncertain whether to hold on a little more or dump eet right now.

Everybody knows that a bitcoin is too expensive and that ICOs, NFTs and Defi are the only way to invest in crypto.

[BobLawblaw]

Poor again.

Come on show us your new buy orders?  

Au contraire, I just fired off a transaction to load some coin onto the exchange. Not sure when I'm going to pull the trigger, but going to take another low 7 digits in profit to calm me down. Shouldn't need to sell any more until the ranch gets nearer to completion; at least a year away.

Heard back from our accountant, and quarterly reporting is pushed out for another month, so I have more time for a price recovery. Would like to go at least a full quarter before I consider selling again, and even then, that'll likely be a big *IF* depending on circumstances.

[Sayeds56]

Man, the 59-60k range is proving to be a right pain in the ass

Does it mean that you are "bored?"

For me, there is a Lindy effect feeling that is going on.. call me LindyJGee.. or maybe I should solicit a change to my nym?

For us this 59-57-59 daily action is quite boring, but for the daily traders who follow the trend it is like living in a scary movie (which they put themselves into because of their stupidity). I guess they screem like little girls when selling with a "stop" loss each day, until their "stop" loss adds up to a complete loss of their resourses. I am lazy to write the code counting all their losses, but it seems that the turning point when these weak hands will be removed from the game is quite near.

Edit. I've just noticed that the volume of the latest stop loss is 4-5x bigger than the previous dips in the last days. So there is a good chance that this will be the last dip before breaking 60K and heading towards 100K in the next weeks.

Bold assertion.. if I do say so my lil selfie.

 

My 4 Hrs chart is showing accumulation around 56,300 and breakout is likely to happen that should take it to new ATH.

[Biodom]

Poor again.

Come on show us your new buy orders?  

Au contraire, I just fired off a transaction to load some coin onto the exchange. Not sure when I'm going to pull the trigger, but going to take another low 7 digits in profit to calm me down. Shouldn't need to sell any more until the ranch gets nearer to completion; at least a year away.

Heard back from our accountant, and quarterly reporting is pushed out for another month, so I have more time for a price recovery. Would like to go at least a full quarter before I consider selling again, and even then, that'll likely be a big *IF* depending on circumstances.

everyone buys and sells when they must...that's all.

[El duderino_]

see if an image is on the internet

Business as usual

[Arriemoller]

There is no need to shill something that is implemented, working and fully accepted.

Yes. It was just annoying that it was being touted when it was clear it was not a solution and, indeed, has proven not to be.

The subtext, of course, is that LN also has issues (not least requiring on-chain capacity) that also make it not a solution and people need to pull their heads out of the sand about why Bitcoin is losing market share.

Oh fuck of will you.
All your merits have been revoked.

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/HuskyBitcoin/status/1379385934555316228?s=20

And even then you are being nice, how long could it take for someone to memorize 12 to 24 seed words in the right order? Even if it took a whole month now you can move your coins without bringing anything with you and instead of measuring this on grams we should do it in neural connections.

When your brain is in it's prime (maybe between 10 years old and 35 - just guessing), you could memorize 24 words in an hour or so.. As you get older, or if you might start to suffer deteriorations, you might need a day or even up to a week... so a week at most for memorizing 24 words - absent some cognitive impairment.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-lightning-network-10k-active-nodes

I'll give you this, at least nobody is shilling Segwit as the answer anymore.

I understand with some hoop jumping that lightning network could have been built without Segwit, but isn't Segwit a foundational layer to lightning network being practically developed? - so in other words, there might not be any need to tout the underlying technology of lightning network (Segwit) even though it is a kind of necessary condition that makes lightning network way more practical... and of course, other second layer solutions that are likely to continue to develop in the years to come are also built upon Segwit - again without having to tout Segwit because Segwit is just a done deal.. so over that.. from August 2017 (even though some folks whined for months and months and months about Segwit, but their whining is kind of (absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..) drying up after 3.5 years when they are kind of figuring out that the whining is not really doing much, if any, good..(absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..) because Segwit is just so much a part of our current little fiend, aka bitcoin and the transition to Segwit is so over, done and kuput. and no need to really talk about it(absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..).


 

[shahzadafzal]

Poor again.

Come on show us your new buy orders? 

Au contraire, I just fired off a transaction to load some coin onto the exchange. Not sure when I'm going to pull the trigger, but going to take another low 7 digits in profit to calm me down. Shouldn't need to sell any more until the ranch gets nearer to completion; at least a year away.

Heard back from our accountant, and quarterly reporting is pushed out for another month, so I have more time for a price recovery. Would like to go at least a full quarter before I consider selling again, and even then, that'll likely be a big *IF* depending on circumstances.

everyone buys and sells when they must...that's all.

We all know the rules of the game and rule # 1

"Don't invest more than you can afford to lose."

If HODLING is the strategy then selling and buy are the tactics.

[JayJuanGee]

Damn, where is V8s? 

It must be depressing to be a conservative.  In the long run, you always lose the culture wars:

It must be exhausting to be constantly on the wrong side of history

You are beginning to show signs of cottoning on, so partial congrats.
It is indeed quite exhausting and sometimes depressing keeping standards up, fighting for calm, common sense and decency, batting away immature boundary-testers with our innovative blue-died water, our cunning fire-setting in the jungle and our nods to your 'diversity' in the very House of Commons.
While I am delighted you seem to think these seeming gains for socialism counter the deals we make behind the scenes which actually run the world, I am saddened that you show no signs of knowing how long the long run is. I demand a more far-thinking opponent.

Ded...


Just like Gentlemand and Lauda...



RIP to all those now ded ones.

We cannot live forever, unless we be a bots

 

^^^ "de-bozo"... That's a nice one!

The act of "de-bozoenoing" someone out of shitcoinery...  

FTFY

you will thank me later.  perhaps?
 

Man, the 59-60k range is proving to be a right pain in the ass

Does it mean that you are "bored?"

For me, there is a Lindy effect feeling that is going on.. call me LindyJGee.. or maybe I should solicit a change to my nym?

For us this 59-57-59 daily action is quite boring, but for the daily traders who follow the trend it is like living in a scary movie (which they put themselves into because of their stupidity). I guess they screem like little girls when selling with a "stop" loss each day, until their "stop" loss adds up to a complete loss of their resourses. I am lazy to write the code counting all their losses, but it seems that the turning point when these weak hands will be removed from the game is quite near.

Edit. I've just noticed that the volume of the latest stop loss is 4-5x bigger than the previous dips in the last days. So there is a good chance that this will be the last dip before breaking 60K and heading towards 100K in the next weeks.

Bold assertion.. if I do say so my lil selfie.

 

Bored is definitely something I am not, got way too much going on in my life to be that way. Impatient would describe my feelings better haha

No need to be "impatient" about our mutual lillie fiend my little friend.

[Richy_T]

Oh fuck of will you.

No, you.

All your merits have been revoked.

IDGAF and never did. I've been a member since 2012 and had to look up how merits worked last month because meaningless internet points don't mean anything.

Keep that head in the sand.

[Richy_T]

When your brain is in it's prime (maybe between 10 years old and 35 - just guessing), you could memorize 24 words in an hour or so.. As you get older, or if you might start to suffer deteriorations, you might need a day or even up to a week... so a week at most for memorizing 24 words - absent some cognitive impairment.

Building the words into a story would probably be the way to go. Rote memorization of arbitrary things is difficult.

I understand with some hoop jumping that lightning network could have been built without Segwit, but isn't Segwit a foundational layer to lightning network being practically developed? - so in other words, there might not be any need to tout the underlying technology of lightning network (Segwit) even though it is a kind of necessary condition that makes lightning network way more practical... and of course, other second layer solutions that are likely to continue to develop in the years to come are also built upon Segwit - again without having to tout Segwit because Segwit is just a done deal.. so over that.. from August 2017 (even though some folks whined for months and months and months about Segwit, but their whining is kind of (absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..) drying up after 3.5 years when they are kind of figuring out that the whining is not really doing much, if any, good..(absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..) because Segwit is just so much a part of our current little fiend, aka bitcoin and the transition to Segwit is so over, done and kuput. and no need to really talk about it(absent little digs from some continuing bitter ones who cannot really seem to get over it.. no names.. Richy_T.. cough cough..).

Segwit absolutely was being touted as a capacity increase, being as how, theoretically, it allows around 4 times the data. The truth is, however, with segwit, block sizes have plateaued at 1.3MB, a trivial 30% increase and it must be remembered that segwit transactions are bigger than traditional bitcoin transactions too.

I don't think it's pertinent to not mention the issue because, simply, it hasn't gone away, as much as it may make some uncomfortable and want to stick their fingers in their ears and shout "la la la", it's an ongoing problem. I regularly see old principles of Bitcoin touted here, fungibility, low friction, security and so on, but the truth is that the capacity issue restricts that and other potential advantages, just as the 56k modems we are currently flinging around images of would have crippled streaming if we hadn't moved beyond them. I'll also add that I'm not throwing this out there randomly but only mentioning it when it is relevant (in this case, in reference as to why alts have stolen so much of the market share).

Now, although I don't buy into it, the argument that increased block size would damage decentralization could be made but that doesn't mean that you get to ignore those other very real effects of limiting it. Listing pros and cons doesn't involve just throwing away things that don't go your way and pretending that very real things that are happening aren't is not a good way to have a good handle on reality. $20+ fees do not provide a good on-ramp to Bitcoin. Where do you think people are going to go?

[OutOfMemory]

Poor again.

Come on show us your new buy orders?  

Au contraire, I just fired off a transaction to load some coin onto the exchange. Not sure when I'm going to pull the trigger, but going to take another low 7 digits in profit to calm me down. Shouldn't need to sell any more until the ranch gets nearer to completion; at least a year away.

Heard back from our accountant, and quarterly reporting is pushed out for another month, so I have more time for a price recovery. Would like to go at least a full quarter before I consider selling again, and even then, that'll likely be a big *IF* depending on circumstances.

Oh, yeah, you have different tax laws in the states.
For example, when i sell BTC, it is considered to be the "oldest" corn i bought so far. If i buy a whole BTC in 2019, buy another one a year later and sell it some weeks later on an exchange, it's tax free, because the tax officials consider this as a sell of the "old" BTC from 2019. You don't have that advantage, afaik.
This is quite effective against daytraders evading taxation, makes some sense in the end.
But laws can be changed, and the EU started to think about that recently  

EDIT: Did the cat bounce already and we had the bottom now?
(that's what my adjusted lines suggest)

[JayJuanGee]

Of course, there are some other ways to acquire BTC, such as getting paid for providing goods or services or mining.. but I am largely trying to focus in on the implicit suggestions of some of the various earlier posts that seem to be battling with where exactly selling fits into any bitcoin strategy, and surely I am trying to emphasize that if you have not yet reached your accumulation goals then selling with a hope of buying back lower remains a kind of gambling approach rather than a prudent approach...

Sure, on this particular point, philip, you and I seem to NOT be very far apart, and in the end, guys can do whatever they want, even though maybe both you and I will be suggesting them to be fools if they are regularly and ongoingly fucking around with selling some or any large portion of their BTC in order to attempt to buy back lower.

That's the dilemma even if you commit not to sell any large amount but a small to sell at "high" and buy back "low"...  you don't know when this will happen....

No doubt that each of us has to find our own balance in this regard, and none of us are likely to come to exactly the same conclusion, even though there might be some closenesses when weighing all of the factors that each of us should be taking into account when both establishing our bitcoin strategy and then trying to follow something that achieves our balances in regards to each of the individual factors.. which again for reminder sake are: cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and skills, time and abilities to plan, learn along the way and tweak in accordance with learning which may end up involving reallocating from time to time and even  trading.   

So yeah if you are fairly young, then the timeline aspect can screw you up in terms of establishing an accumulation goal but then having to figure out how much that you would actually need to pull the fuck you lever in order to sustain yourself which could be a quite daunting projection in terms of the number of years or even your earning power if you are ONLY late 20s or early 30s as compared to someone who already entered into their 60s and likely has a much shorter time horizon and might not feel so compelled to conquer the world in terms of ongoing earning power.

I am still kind of assuming that you, shahzadafzal, are contemplating the top or possible tops in terms of your desire to accumulate more BTC, and you have not even come close to reaching your BTC accumulation goal, and that is part of the reason that you are expressing some anxiety in terms of what can be done (on a personal action level from yourself) in regards to BTC price swings that we largely know to be inevitable, but we really have few clues as to exactly when they might come - even if there are all kinds of trading theories including waves and some of that other bullshit that we could try to plug into bitcoin as a less mature asset class but has its own price performance models that help us to figure out how bitcoin's likely price performance fits into the other trading models.

So, yeah, I am largely suggesting NOT to be selling any BTC when you are in early accumulation phase, even if we might end up getting a 80% or some other extreme correction from here.. but once you have a decent hand on your accumulation goal, you might well be able to shave some off along the way (so long as you are ready to suck that conversion to dollars up in the event that the BTC price keeps going up in spite your anticipation that there was going to be a correction.. so in that regards, your sales are at such a level that you do not give any shits if the price goes up or the price goes down.. not easy to get to such an emotionally detached status both financially and psychologically).. but formulas for actually figuring out what you should do or could do can be worked out.. and if you have not yet reached your BTC accumulation goal likely should involve aspects of ongoing DCA, buying on dips and HODL... .. and yeah, you want to incorporate selling into the formula.. I know I know.. and I do not recommend, unless it is very small amounts and  a kind of profit taking kind of formula.. consider the (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan raking solution (even though rpietila.. rest in peace, was far from sane, there are some good ideas contained in that thread).

I have to confess here that when this year BTC hit $40k i did thought of selling "some" ... but I did not (thanks God) and however later sold "some" at $54k and $53k... just to buy back later.. i never cashed it out... but now I have been waiting since then to buy it back

Well, some people consider various kinds of formulas in which they can start selling some BTC once they reach 2x on their holdings, so then maybe shaving off 10% for every time that it doubles again.. or there can be variations of such formulas including when to start (beginning at 5x or whatever), what increments to sell.. every 10%, 50% or some other rise and how much to shave off.  1%, 5% or whatever.. you can make a lot of different variations of the selling formula and many variations of how much of a drop that you would need before buying back, if at all... you can consider the matter as cash off the table or cash to reinvest into bitcoin and/or even apportion.. half is for rebuying and the other half is off the table.. blah blah blah..

So what are other ways to acquire BTC? mining atm is not an option for obvious reasons... providing goods and services.. there aren't many..

Well, if you work your fucking ass off in various ways, you can use money from what you have earned to buy bitcoin, including figuring out ways to cut your living expenses, such as vapourminer's favorite ramen noodles.. and you can use some or all of the saved money to buy bitcoin.  You can also forestall on making expensive purchases, including depreciating assets, and consider whether it is practical to own such an asset or decide to rent a $2k per month property that you can rent out 2/3 of it for $1,500 and only pay $500 per month in rent rather than getting a place for $1k per month in which you would have to pay all the expenses, which could give you $500 or more in money to invest into bitcoin.  Of course, your age, your skills and your ingenuity could make differences, and sometimes, luck can help too.. but maybe you prepare for being able to get x, y or z lucrative job, but you end up with luck and you get the xyz job that ends up being a better one than you had even contemplated but your preparations had help to put you in such a position.

here on bitciontalk i never got convinced enough from signature campaigns which force you to post 15-20 posts per week and pays you what $20??

If you are going to post anyhow, it might be just bonus money, but sure, I agree that the signature campaigns are seeming to pay a lot less than what they used to pay.. but changing times do affect options, too.

how about the time you spent writing those post does it worth. I can't do that most of the time i will be in reading mode here on bitciontalk...

You have to decide for yourself what is your status in terms of accumulation and if you need to be spending time in more lucrative activities.  On a personal level, I have largely been on the forum for a bit over 7 years, but largely I had already reached a quasi-retirement status when I came to the forum.... and in my case, I had some business that I was involved in (in 2014, 2015 and 2016.. that I was trying to figure out ways to wrap up and get out of .. which also took several years to sort out.... but did not exactly require me to have to earn money from it.. even while I was trying to wrap it up. .. which probably ended up taking way more time than it should have.. but again personal choices regarding how to spend time and how much money is needed to be earned from some of the chosen activities.. or maybe what other benefits are derived from certain hobbies - such as maintaining health through exercise, even though it does not make any money)..  so each of us is in a different position.

now please don't hate me and let me ask what "other ways to acquire BTC"??... So sh*tting around with shitcoins, is this an option?

Of course, you are going to get hate for your wanting to talk about shitcoins in this here thread... not that it might not be a potentially valid way of gaining more bitcoin (and maybe scamming others out of their bitcoin?), but it is NOT on topic in this here thread.... because, in part, such shitcoin topics have tendencies to devolve into shitcoin pumpenings, bitcoin naysaying and a lot of distracting off-topic devolutions, distractions and nonsense.. and ain't nobody got time for dat!!!! at least not in these here parts.. so take your shitcoin contemplations and brainstormenings to udder parts of the forum.. there are udder parts of the forum for those kinds of contemplations and brainstormenings (that are potentially valid, but off topic in these here parts).