Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gyrsur]

BUY zone (green). You missed it? Smart Money didn't!

Missed the green zone but not the buy. Who cares in a few years if it was 61 or 63k.

An Investor like me not a Trader. Good choice. 

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[rolling]

I'm all for coinbase doing the IPO and being the "first crypto company to get on nasdaq" BUT the only question I have is.. If you sit on money to invest, why would you buy coinbase stock vs buying btc? Enlighten me someone?

You wouldn't.

If you can buy bitcoin then there is no reason to buy Coinbase.

Some regulated entities such as pension funds or mutual funds can't legally buy bitcoin yet so this is another alternative to get exposure.

[shahzadafzal]

BUY zone (green). You missed it? Smart Money didn't!

Missed the green zone but not the buy. Who cares in a few years if it was 61 or 63k.

An Investor like me not a Trader. Good choice.  

Exactly! if you are a HODLer does it even matter if you buy a dip or ATH?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

https://twitter.com/tyler/status/1382332291704307713?s=21


Every single one of us deserves this.

[OutOfMemory]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

Yeah, halvening cycles are like self fulfilling prophecies. You'd need a lot of market "up energy" to compensate the cyclic bear market.
Or global paradigm shift, like true mass adoption within the bullrun phase.

[Biodom]

I'm all for coinbase doing the IPO and being the "first crypto company to get on nasdaq" BUT the only question I have is.. If you sit on money to invest, why would you buy coinbase stock vs buying btc? Enlighten me someone?

You cannot buy bitcoin in your typical tax-advantageous accounts (in US), such as IRA and Roth IRA.
Theoretically, you can if you open something called self-directed IRA, but it is a hassle and they have yearly fees, typically.
You can buy GBTC and COIN there, though.
A simple explanation. Most US people have a bulk of their investable money in those entities (IRA and Roth IRA).

[Sayeds56]

When 100k?

Everbody waiting for Coinbase IPO.
Then FOMO (shares and corn), imho.

The actual listing (or soon thereafter) could cause a drop, but yeah getting the timing right could be difficult, and if peeps are "expecting a drop" our little fiend does not always want to go along with expectations, amiNOTrite?

Absolutely right but drop is good buying opportunity.

[Hueristic]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenehrlich/2021/04/13/janet-yellen-bitcoin-and-crypto-fearmongers-get-pushback-from-former-cia-director/?sh=5d824c5a9bb7

Bitcoin just received a strong vote of confidence from an unlikely source, a former acting director of the Central Intelligence Agency. In so doing, he put senior government officials who issue public warnings about bitcoin’s alleged use by criminals, such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, on notice.

...
In an expansive study, Morell came to two key conclusions:

    The broad generalizations about the use of bitcoin in illicit finance are significantly overstated.
    Blockchain analysis is a highly effective crime fighting and intelligence gathering tool.

But that is not all. In speaking with Forbes before the paper’s release, Morell made it clear that there will also be severe geopolitical repercussions for the U.S. vis-a-vis China if it wastes energy and resources chasing a ghost as opposed to leveraging blockchain, and fintech more generally, to build the country’s technological and economic base. Specifically, he said that “we need to make sure that the conventional wisdom that is wrong about the illicit use of Bitcoin doesn't hold us back from pushing forward the technological changes that are going to allow us to keep pace with China.”

But that is not all. Perhaps even more interesting to Morell was how analytic firms such as Chainalysis, CipherTrace, and Elliptic can employ forensic and artificial intelligence tools to find illicit actors and activity on blockchains. In fact, he said that he was “literally blown away by how they find illicit activity...this is great intelligence work.”

He also made sure to point out that this analysis works on multiple levels because it can be used to track the actions of known actors as well as identify previously unknown people of interest.

[cAPSLOCK]

Well... i have been dormant for a while, only recently came back on. I do not regret converting my BTC into Fiat, especially since it gave me the freedom to not be in Debt! In hindsight, i can say that i made full use of the bitcoin i had, it actually all boils down to what makes you happy i guess! In my case, i used it for paying off my mortgage much faster than the 20 year plan i had (paid off in 2 years!). Paid off a new car, bike and went on umpteen holidays which is something my wife and I both love, invested in my hobby of diecast collection, which in itself is worth a fair bit right now!

Do i regret not having all 21 BTC, sure i do, i would have retired without a second thought if i had that kind of purchasing power but then i am looking at a retirement at 40 opposed to 50 which was my earlier plan and it is all because of Bitcoin!

Forgive me for sounding a bit harsh, micky123, but I sense a teeny-weeny tiny little itsy-bitsy degree of bitterness and saltiness in your post. I can bet that you would die to turn back time and skip that car, bike and holiday spendings. It's OK, you had fun, I understand that, but was it really worth it?

What I would like from my BTC, would be to firstly and foremostly solve the problems that really matter to me. Life-changing issues like freeing myself from wage-slavery (nor really a wage-slave, but not free either), taking care of my retirement, guaranteeing a minimum income for life, providing me with a decent standard of living.

After doing all of the math and all of the science of all of the above, then I'd spend some of my leftover stash for a car, holidays, or whatever else I fancy. But, I wouldn't even think of doing even a tiny fraction of the equivalent of buying a purse for 17 BTC, when I only have 17 BTC...

I never spend any Bitcoin for the most part.  But I did, in '17 buy a trip for my wife and I.  I told her we used the bitcoin, and I told her... you know.. we WANT this to be the trip that cost $200k some day.  If it turns out that is the case, I imagine I will look back on that with the same sort of fondness Lazlo does when he think's of his 10 digit pizzas.

Everyone has to make this call, and will all along the way.

Again, the most optimal route may be to borrow against the whole stack.  That said, it poses another sort of risk.

Right now we are still in price discovery.  I am hoping this is the last big push (and it has a ways to go still), and we go to a more gentle upward curve after.  If that is the case... it may be much more sensible to spend our wealth as we move on.

[Gyrsur]

This years holidays 100k+ ...

FTFY  


EDIT: nearly BUY zone again.  

EDIT2: very fascinating to watch.

[Hhampuz]

I'm all for coinbase doing the IPO and being the "first crypto company to get on nasdaq" BUT the only question I have is.. If you sit on money to invest, why would you buy coinbase stock vs buying btc? Enlighten me someone?

You cannot buy bitcoin in your typical tax-advantageous accounts (in US), such as IRA and Roth IRA.
Theoretically, you can if you open something called self-directed IRA, but it is a hassle and they have yearly fees, typically.
You can buy GBTC and COIN there, though.
A simple explanation. Most US people have a bulk of their investable money in those entities (IRA and Roth IRA).

Gotcha, so it's for tax purposes more or less? How does it work if you buy BTC direct, no tax cuts or otherwise?

[cAPSLOCK]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

Yeah, halvening cycles are like self fulfilling prophecies. You'd need a lot of market "up energy" to compensate the cyclic bear market.
Or global paradigm shift, like true mass adoption within the bullrun phase.

I have been here for all of the cycles... some of us have seen less, and the new institutional folks?  0 so far.

But those guys can read a chart.  Do we honestly think it's going to follow the exact same pattern AGAIN now that the whole world is starting to want in?

It may be that I just WANT Saylor to be right.  But I think he actually may be.  It might actually be "different this time".  Lol.

[Biodom]

I'm all for coinbase doing the IPO and being the "first crypto company to get on nasdaq" BUT the only question I have is.. If you sit on money to invest, why would you buy coinbase stock vs buying btc? Enlighten me someone?

You cannot buy bitcoin in your typical tax-advantageous accounts (in US), such as IRA and Roth IRA.
Theoretically, you can if you open something called self-directed IRA, but it is a hassle and they have yearly fees, typically.
You can buy GBTC and COIN there, though.
A simple explanation. Most US people have a bulk of their investable money in those entities (IRA and Roth IRA).

Gotcha, so it's for tax purposes more or less? How does it work if you buy BTC direct, no tax cuts or otherwise?

yes and plus, as i mentioned, you are not allowed to trade btc in most IRAs, but you can trade stocks (like GBTC and COIN).
BTW, it looks like that WS wants to play COIN the same way they played FB (push it down first).
They probably think that this drop might entice more employees to sell.
Right now those employees are probably on pins and needles since they could have sold it in pre-IPO sales for $470 and now the price is $100 lower.
$580 on FTX looks like a joke (for now).

[Richy_T]

I'm all for coinbase doing the IPO and being the "first crypto company to get on nasdaq" BUT the only question I have is.. If you sit on money to invest, why would you buy coinbase stock vs buying btc? Enlighten me someone?

Probably something about selling picks and shovels during a goldrush.

[BitcoinBunny]

[OutOfMemory]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

Yeah, halvening cycles are like self fulfilling prophecies. You'd need a lot of market "up energy" to compensate the cyclic bear market.
Or global paradigm shift, like true mass adoption within the bullrun phase.

I have been here for all of the cycles... some of us have seen less, and the new institutional folks?  0 so far.

But those guys can read a chart.  Do we honestly think it's going to follow the exact same pattern AGAIN now that the whole world is starting to want in?

It may be that I just WANT Saylor to be right.  But I think he actually may be.  It might actually be "different this time".  Lol.

I'm 50/50 on this matter. I don't say its impossible (end of cycles =EOC) but i know that humans are prone to repetition and to expect what worked/happened in the past will work/happen in the future, too. So there are "strong forces" against EOC. It depends on the strength of forces that are working against the cycle expectancy and market movers to act in accordance to the latter. It's completely open. We will just have to witness how it's going to be as it goes on.

[Dabs]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

Yeah, halvening cycles are like self fulfilling prophecies. You'd need a lot of market "up energy" to compensate the cyclic bear market.
Or global paradigm shift, like true mass adoption within the bullrun phase.

I have been here for all of the cycles... some of us have seen less, and the new institutional folks?  0 so far.

But those guys can read a chart.  Do we honestly think it's going to follow the exact same pattern AGAIN now that the whole world is starting to want in?

It may be that I just WANT Saylor to be right.  But I think he actually may be.  It might actually be "different this time".  Lol.

I'm 50/50 on this matter. I don't say its impossible (end of cycles =EOC) but i know that humans are prone to repetition and to expect what worked/happened in the past will work/happen in the future, too. So there are "strong forces" against EOC. It depends on the strength of forces that are working against the cycle expectancy and market movers to act in accordance to the latter. It's completely open. We will just have to witness how it's going to be as it goes on.

You can hedge against the possibility. If you feel 50/50, then put 50% near the end of the cycle or where you predict it will end, and that is roughly about 18 to 24 months from now, or about a year before the next halving? There is no exact time frame, you'll have to make a guess or watch on-chain analytics and other data.

50% keep it in, so if the EOC does not happen, you can ride that part, but also don't put back in unless you are very sure the EOC did not happen and will not happen anymore.

That way, half is hedged when or if it happens, half is in if it does not happen.

I think it's different this time. A trillion dollars says it's different.

[Biodom]

As expected, WS is showing COIN who is 'da boss'....for now.
FB IPOed at $38, dropped to $17.73.
COIN to $180? Maybe too pessimistic considering current growth.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1382318019020476418?s=20

[gallianooo]

COIN will close the day at 250$