Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

Yeah, halvening cycles are like self fulfilling prophecies. You'd need a lot of market "up energy" to compensate the cyclic bear market.
Or global paradigm shift, like true mass adoption within the bullrun phase.

I have been here for all of the cycles... some of us have seen less, and the new institutional folks?  0 so far.

But those guys can read a chart.  Do we honestly think it's going to follow the exact same pattern AGAIN now that the whole world is starting to want in?

It may be that I just WANT Saylor to be right.  But I think he actually may be.  It might actually be "different this time".  Lol.

I'm 50/50 on this matter. I don't say its impossible (end of cycles =EOC) but i know that humans are prone to repetition and to expect what worked/happened in the past will work/happen in the future, too. So there are "strong forces" against EOC. It depends on the strength of forces that are working against the cycle expectancy and market movers to act in accordance to the latter. It's completely open. We will just have to witness how it's going to be as it goes on.

[Dabs]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

Yeah, halvening cycles are like self fulfilling prophecies. You'd need a lot of market "up energy" to compensate the cyclic bear market.
Or global paradigm shift, like true mass adoption within the bullrun phase.

I have been here for all of the cycles... some of us have seen less, and the new institutional folks?  0 so far.

But those guys can read a chart.  Do we honestly think it's going to follow the exact same pattern AGAIN now that the whole world is starting to want in?

It may be that I just WANT Saylor to be right.  But I think he actually may be.  It might actually be "different this time".  Lol.

I'm 50/50 on this matter. I don't say its impossible (end of cycles =EOC) but i know that humans are prone to repetition and to expect what worked/happened in the past will work/happen in the future, too. So there are "strong forces" against EOC. It depends on the strength of forces that are working against the cycle expectancy and market movers to act in accordance to the latter. It's completely open. We will just have to witness how it's going to be as it goes on.

You can hedge against the possibility. If you feel 50/50, then put 50% near the end of the cycle or where you predict it will end, and that is roughly about 18 to 24 months from now, or about a year before the next halving? There is no exact time frame, you'll have to make a guess or watch on-chain analytics and other data.

50% keep it in, so if the EOC does not happen, you can ride that part, but also don't put back in unless you are very sure the EOC did not happen and will not happen anymore.

That way, half is hedged when or if it happens, half is in if it does not happen.

I think it's different this time. A trillion dollars says it's different.

[Biodom]

As expected, WS is showing COIN who is 'da boss'....for now.
FB IPOed at $38, dropped to $17.73.
COIN to $180? Maybe too pessimistic considering current growth.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1382318019020476418?s=20

[gallianooo]

COIN will close the day at 250$ 

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1382408549343580161?s=20

Wow lol at Taleb

[marcus_of_augustus]

As expected, WS is showing COIN who is 'da boss'....for now.
FB IPOed at $38, dropped to $17.73.
COIN to $180? Maybe too pessimistic considering current growth.

... as I said (and you poo-pooed), what are Brian, Fred and Marc + V.C.'s who now over-weighted with risk in coinbase shares with current valuations going to do?

1. Sell Coinbase shares for dirty fiat
2. Wait for buying opportunity
3. Buy bitcoin

... we are currently at step 1. Step 3. will be at their leisure, but not before too long.

[AlcoHoDL]

Have you ever thought how much your Bitcoin stash would weigh if it was converted to gold?

Man, I now realise how impractical that metal really is as a SoV.

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1382408549343580161?s=20

Wow lol at Taleb

I see he's in the process of being transformed to Talebozo the Clown.

Suits him fine.

[gallianooo]

#PoorAgain   

[cAPSLOCK]

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1382408549343580161?s=20

Wow lol at Taleb

Yeah... I have always seen him as extremely arrogant.  That sort of thing can be exhilarating when he agrees with you, and annoying when he does not.  But it is obvious he does not really understand why Bitcoin is relevant, and it seems to me he is throwing the Bitcoin baby out with the Covid bathwater. Honestly it seems he is most concerned about associating with someone who disagrees with him on the pandemic.  That in itself is a foolish position, since they are not really related. 

As brilliant as Saif is they share some of this trait.  Saif is just as extreme with his views on art, food, etc.

Do we have any Lebanese WO members?  Are you guys just hot tempered and extreme in general?

[marcus_of_augustus]

... to all the bitcoiners now thinking of retiring early or just being pleased that they now have an option to tell the idiot boss to fuck off whenever they like, ponder this ...

https://twitter.com/MacroScope17/status/1382158048492408832

But it's actually an important observation. It's exactly what happens historically in countries where monetary policy becomes dangerously unmoored...but ONLY for those who protect themselves.

....

MY WAGES ARE BECOMING WORTHLESS COMPARED TO MY SAVINGS

... further protections are need in countries who's monetary policies go AWOL ... look no further than Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, etc.

.... retiring early is only the first step in protecting yourselves, the global fiat monetary system has gone off the rails, the chaos will be unfahtomable for those who haven't prepared themselves mentally for living in a regime/epoch where sound monetary policy has been abandoned. We probably need to go back to early 1700's to get a sense of what kind of financial, economic and societal chaos is coming.

[Sayeds56]

Have you ever thought how much your Bitcoin stash would weigh if it was converted to gold?

Man, I now realise how impractical that metal really is as a SoV.

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1382408549343580161?s=20

Wow lol at Taleb

I see he's in the process of being transformed to Talebozo the Clown.

Suits him fine.

If Bitcoin converted into Gold, it would weigh around 36 ounce or 2.32 Pounds.

[Arriemoller]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

Yeah, halvening cycles are like self fulfilling prophecies. You'd need a lot of market "up energy" to compensate the cyclic bear market.
Or global paradigm shift, like true mass adoption within the bullrun phase.

I have been here for all of the cycles... some of us have seen less, and the new institutional folks?  0 so far.

But those guys can read a chart.  Do we honestly think it's going to follow the exact same pattern AGAIN now that the whole world is starting to want in?

It may be that I just WANT Saylor to be right.  But I think he actually may be.  It might actually be "different this time".  Lol.

I'm 50/50 on this matter. I don't say its impossible (end of cycles =EOC) but i know that humans are prone to repetition and to expect what worked/happened in the past will work/happen in the future, too. So there are "strong forces" against EOC. It depends on the strength of forces that are working against the cycle expectancy and market movers to act in accordance to the latter. It's completely open. We will just have to witness how it's going to be as it goes on.

You can hedge against the possibility. If you feel 50/50, then put 50% near the end of the cycle or where you predict it will end, and that is roughly about 18 to 24 months from now, or about a year before the next halving? There is no exact time frame, you'll have to make a guess or watch on-chain analytics and other data.

50% keep it in, so if the EOC does not happen, you can ride that part, but also don't put back in unless you are very sure the EOC did not happen and will not happen anymore.

That way, half is hedged when or if it happens, half is in if it does not happen.

I think it's different this time. A trillion dollars says it's different.

The next poll: is it different this time?

[Biodom]

As expected, WS is showing COIN who is 'da boss'....for now.
FB IPOed at $38, dropped to $17.73.
COIN to $180? Maybe too pessimistic considering current growth.

... as I said (and you poo-pooed), what are Brian, Fred and Marc + V.C.'s who now over-weighted with risk in coinbase shares with current valuations going to do?

1. Sell Coinbase shares for dirty fiat
2. Wait for buying opportunity
3. Buy bitcoin

... we are currently at step 1. Step 3. will be at their leisure, but not before too long.

Hmm, referring back to the original discussion below, it more or less happening as described (at least in part), albeit you might be right and EVENTUALLY, like within 1-14 days, some of them would use raised cash to buy btc.

... Coinbase IPO will release tens of billions of fiat into the hands of long time bitcoin savy enthusiasts and maximalists, who are least likely to want to have the new dosh sit in fiat

.... they're just trying to keep a lid on this as long as possible and buy up the cheap coins

... no way btc is only worth 10x Coinbase market cap, the IPO event should fix most of that anomaly

IMHO, you are getting it exactly backwards, at least at first.
Some institutions will sell btc and buy Coinbase IPO, unless WS plays some trick to push Coinbase down temporarily, like they did with FB.
In fact, I see roughly 50% chance of the latter scenario happening.

[macson]

Spring has arrived, sun is shining, bitcoin is rising.

What a life.

enjoying life with a sexy woman while seeing Bitcoin portfolio own that continues to rise is a big guys dream....what a life.

I'm all for coinbase doing the IPO and being the "first crypto company to get on nasdaq" BUT the only question I have is.. If you sit on money to invest, why would you buy coinbase stock vs buying btc? Enlighten me someone?

IPOs are toys for "old school" investors.  they have never believed in Bitcoin and must have only believed in the company's annual profits.  Coinbase stock buyers are simply "safety players" who find it difficult to tell which ones are actually making more money.  ^{(they didn't realize that it was more profitable to buy Bitcoin than coinbase stocks)}

[El duderino_]

upload pictures to google

[eXPHorizon]

Any advice on how to stop Smoking Cigarettes? 

[JayJuanGee]

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

Saylor can go fuck his lil selfie..


hahahahaha
 

[Torque]

COIN will close the day at 250$  

Fuck fuck fuck Wall Street. So fucking corrupt.

I just did the math. Had the public been able to invest directly in Coinbase stock pre-IPO back in 2013 at $0.20/share like the exclusive angel investors, they'd all be up 1250X their investment. Likely much better off than just putting that money into Bitcoin in late 2013.

(Although I'm not saying not to buy Bitcoin, that's a no-brainer to own the underlying asset directly).

This is why the 1% gets filthy rich on stonks, while the general public gets shut out of the game.

[Richy_T]

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1382318019020476418?s=20

Looks more like a surcharge for crypto and an even bigger one for credit cards to me.