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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26370792 times)
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El duderino_
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April 14, 2021, 07:20:24 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1382408549343580161?s=20

Wow lol at Taleb
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marcus_of_augustus
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April 14, 2021, 07:37:42 PM
Last edit: April 14, 2021, 07:58:23 PM by marcus_of_augustus
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

As expected, WS is showing COIN who is 'da boss'....for now.
FB IPOed at $38, dropped to $17.73.
COIN to $180? Maybe too pessimistic considering current growth.


... as I said (and you poo-pooed), what are Brian, Fred and Marc + V.C.'s who now over-weighted with risk in coinbase shares with current valuations going to do?

1. Sell Coinbase shares for dirty fiat
2. Wait for buying opportunity
3. Buy bitcoin

... we are currently at step 1. Step 3. will be at their leisure, but not before too long.
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April 14, 2021, 07:41:21 PM

Have you ever thought how much your Bitcoin stash would weigh if it was converted to gold?

Man, I now realise how impractical that metal really is as a SoV.



I see he's in the process of being transformed to Talebozo the Clown.

Suits him fine.
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April 14, 2021, 07:44:07 PM

#PoorAgain   Cheesy
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April 14, 2021, 08:03:51 PM


Yeah... I have always seen him as extremely arrogant.  That sort of thing can be exhilarating when he agrees with you, and annoying when he does not.  But it is obvious he does not really understand why Bitcoin is relevant, and it seems to me he is throwing the Bitcoin baby out with the Covid bathwater. Honestly it seems he is most concerned about associating with someone who disagrees with him on the pandemic.  That in itself is a foolish position, since they are not really related. 

As brilliant as Saif is they share some of this trait.  Saif is just as extreme with his views on art, food, etc.

Do we have any Lebanese WO members?  Are you guys just hot tempered and extreme in general? Wink
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April 14, 2021, 08:05:33 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), 20kevin20 (1)

... to all the bitcoiners now thinking of retiring early or just being pleased that they now have an option to tell the idiot boss to fuck off whenever they like, ponder this ...

https://twitter.com/MacroScope17/status/1382158048492408832
Quote
But it's actually an important observation. It's exactly what happens historically in countries where monetary policy becomes dangerously unmoored...but ONLY for those who protect themselves.

....

MY WAGES ARE BECOMING WORTHLESS COMPARED TO MY SAVINGS

... further protections are need in countries who's monetary policies go AWOL ... look no further than Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, etc.

.... retiring early is only the first step in protecting yourselves, the global fiat monetary system has gone off the rails, the chaos will be unfahtomable for those who haven't prepared themselves mentally for living in a regime/epoch where sound monetary policy has been abandoned. We probably need to go back to early 1700's to get a sense of what kind of financial, economic and societal chaos is coming.
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April 14, 2021, 08:08:01 PM

Have you ever thought how much your Bitcoin stash would weigh if it was converted to gold?

Man, I now realise how impractical that metal really is as a SoV.



I see he's in the process of being transformed to Talebozo the Clown.

Suits him fine.

If Bitcoin converted into Gold, it would weigh around 36 ounce or 2.32 Pounds.
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April 14, 2021, 08:10:08 PM

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

I think he is wrong, that would mean that the halving and subsequent boom would never again be followed by a bust. No way, it's way to early for that.

Yeah, halvening cycles are like self fulfilling prophecies. You'd need a lot of market "up energy" to compensate the cyclic bear market.
Or global paradigm shift, like true mass adoption within the bullrun phase.

I have been here for all of the cycles... some of us have seen less, and the new institutional folks?  0 so far.

But those guys can read a chart.  Do we honestly think it's going to follow the exact same pattern AGAIN now that the whole world is starting to want in?

It may be that I just WANT Saylor to be right.  But I think he actually may be.  It might actually be "different this time".  Lol.

I'm 50/50 on this matter. I don't say its impossible (end of cycles =EOC) but i know that humans are prone to repetition and to expect what worked/happened in the past will work/happen in the future, too. So there are "strong forces" against EOC. It depends on the strength of forces that are working against the cycle expectancy and market movers to act in accordance to the latter. It's completely open. We will just have to witness how it's going to be as it goes on.

You can hedge against the possibility. If you feel 50/50, then put 50% near the end of the cycle or where you predict it will end, and that is roughly about 18 to 24 months from now, or about a year before the next halving? There is no exact time frame, you'll have to make a guess or watch on-chain analytics and other data.

50% keep it in, so if the EOC does not happen, you can ride that part, but also don't put back in unless you are very sure the EOC did not happen and will not happen anymore.

That way, half is hedged when or if it happens, half is in if it does not happen.

I think it's different this time. A trillion dollars says it's different.

The next poll: is it different this time?
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April 14, 2021, 08:29:30 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4)

As expected, WS is showing COIN who is 'da boss'....for now.
FB IPOed at $38, dropped to $17.73.
COIN to $180? Maybe too pessimistic considering current growth.


... as I said (and you poo-pooed), what are Brian, Fred and Marc + V.C.'s who now over-weighted with risk in coinbase shares with current valuations going to do?

1. Sell Coinbase shares for dirty fiat
2. Wait for buying opportunity
3. Buy bitcoin

... we are currently at step 1. Step 3. will be at their leisure, but not before too long.

Hmm, referring back to the original discussion below, it more or less happening as described (at least in part), albeit you might be right and EVENTUALLY, like within 1-14 days, some of them would use raised cash to buy btc.

... Coinbase IPO will release tens of billions of fiat into the hands of long time bitcoin savy enthusiasts and maximalists, who are least likely to want to have the new dosh sit in fiat

.... they're just trying to keep a lid on this as long as possible and buy up the cheap coins

... no way btc is only worth 10x Coinbase market cap, the IPO event should fix most of that anomaly

IMHO, you are getting it exactly backwards, at least at first.
Some institutions will sell btc and buy Coinbase IPO, unless WS plays some trick to push Coinbase down temporarily, like they did with FB.
In fact, I see roughly 50% chance of the latter scenario happening.
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April 14, 2021, 08:59:30 PM
Merited by Kylapoiss (1)

Spring has arrived, sun is shining, bitcoin is rising.

What a life.
enjoying life with a sexy woman while seeing Bitcoin portfolio own that continues to rise is a big guys dream....what a life.

I'm all for coinbase doing the IPO and being the "first crypto company to get on nasdaq" BUT the only question I have is.. If you sit on money to invest, why would you buy coinbase stock vs buying btc? Enlighten me someone?
IPOs are toys for "old school" investors.  they have never believed in Bitcoin and must have only believed in the company's annual profits.  Coinbase stock buyers are simply "safety players" who find it difficult to tell which ones are actually making more money.  (they didn't realize that it was more profitable to buy Bitcoin than coinbase stocks)
El duderino_
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April 14, 2021, 09:43:33 PM


upload pictures to google
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April 14, 2021, 09:57:08 PM

Any advice on how to stop Smoking Cigarettes?  Grin
JayJuanGee
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April 14, 2021, 10:08:35 PM

Saylor believes the 4 year cycles are over. In any case, their company is hodling for a minimum of 5 years.

Saylor can go fuck his lil selfie..


hahahahaha
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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April 14, 2021, 10:11:07 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (7), Biodom (2), vapourminer (1)

COIN will close the day at 250$  Roll Eyes

Fuck fuck fuck Wall Street. So fucking corrupt.

I just did the math. Had the public been able to invest directly in Coinbase stock pre-IPO back in 2013 at $0.20/share like the exclusive angel investors, they'd all be up 1250X their investment. Likely much better off than just putting that money into Bitcoin in late 2013.

(Although I'm not saying not to buy Bitcoin, that's a no-brainer to own the underlying asset directly).

This is why the 1% gets filthy rich on stonks, while the general public gets shut out of the game.
Richy_T
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April 14, 2021, 10:24:03 PM


Looks more like a surcharge for crypto and an even bigger one for credit cards to me.
Biodom
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April 14, 2021, 10:24:24 PM
Last edit: April 14, 2021, 10:41:05 PM by Biodom
Merited by Torque (1)

COIN will close the day at 250$  Roll Eyes

Fuck fuck fuck Wall Street. So fucking corrupt.

I just did the math. Had the public been able to invest directly in Coinbase stock pre-IPO back in 2013 at $0.20/share like the exclusive angel investors, they'd all be up 1250X their investment. Likely much better off than just putting that money into Bitcoin in late 2013.

(Although I'm not saying not to buy Bitcoin, that's a no-brainer to own the underlying asset directly).

This is why the 1% gets filthy rich on stonks, while the general public gets shut out of the game.

Yes, and this inability to invest early in some Internet companies (FB, GOOGL) was the reason I had an eye on bitcoin's meritocracy.
The way SEC, CFTC, etc ACTIVELY preclude regular people to invest early is appalling. To my knowledge, no other OECD country does it.
They want to have a ruling class and a permanent underclass with specific rules about "accredited investor' ($1 mil).
Now they invented even more gradations: qualified investor ($5mil), qualified purchaser, etc.
In addition, now (since 2017) they preclude US investors to invest in basically any token, not that many here cares, but still.
They (SEC) are basically pauperizing the american population.
I am not sure why I am upset about it, since I DGAF anymore.
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April 14, 2021, 10:26:28 PM

Any advice on how to stop Smoking Cigarettes?  Grin

 Every time you feel like a smoke, give your knuckles a good crack with a rubber mallet.  Either you wont want to smoke anymore or you wont be able to hold a cigarette.

 edit: when I quit, I just quit. There were 3 rough days - I substituted the cigarettes for gum and sugar-free candies.

 
JayJuanGee
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April 14, 2021, 10:32:58 PM
Last edit: April 14, 2021, 10:47:53 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by El duderino_ (3)

Anyhow, I am having some trouble relating to anyone who has known about bitcoin, and who had been into BTC for 7 years or so to actually have only in the neighborhood of 1 BTC.. even though I do understand that there might be ways of explaining it, it seems to not be a very good example of how to approach this asset class.

Being poor, being born into a shit situation/location, living paycheck to paycheck, and sometimes not even that..

Sure, and people who are in those kinds of situations should be investing whatever their cashflow might allow, and not more.  Can we agree on $10 per week?  That gets you about 4.3BTC.. and that is NOT even accounting for micky123 saying that he had 21 BTC at one time, which suggests a whole other dynamic going on, including the fact that he has had some disposible income or he was engaging in deranged gambling which is surely not a recommended strategy whether rich or poor, even though rich can afford it more, but poor people seem to engage in such stupid-ass conduct too.

I understand that there could be some who might not be able to go as high as $10 per week, but still work with me on this.. instead of assuming too many facts that are not even presented by the case of micky123 that were presented.

That’s why I have been so adamant about NOT selling, because these lottery tickets are basically irreplaceable..

 Lottery tickets?  Not sure I would characterize bitcoin as a kind of lottery tickets even though bitcoin does seem to have an asymmetric upside potential.. which is a similar, but different concept from "lottery tickets."

Were, even at sub 10k levels..

 Yes we were,... for a long fucking time.  Snap out of it.

I’ve managed to get and hold onto more than one, but any pragmatic person in many of my past situations would have sold them all to keep up in real life, but I did not, and still will not..

 Well maybe you have learned something over the years?  Perhaps?

I’m doing much better these days, but not everyone have disposable income for wild investments..

$10 a week.. let's try that.  I understand that not everyone has $10 per week, but micky123's assertion that he had 21 BTC at one time does seem to imply pretty damned strongly that he could probably put together $10 per week.. even if he had to try to get smarter during the process of making that sustainable for more than a few weeks.. and perhaps make it sustainable for 7 years or so?  perhaps?  perhaps?
 

On another note, I bet half or more of DT1 on this forum can’t even sign a half a Bitcoin, much less one whole Bitcoin.. Many not even 1/4 or even 1/10th a coin..

You can bet or speculate all that you like.. who fucking cares?  Do they have $10 per week?  Could have they put together $10 per week to be sustainable for the past 7 years?  Then they would have had about 4.3BTC.. go figure?
 

How do you feel about most of the democratically elected community leadership on this forum (DT) don’t even have any skin in the game?

 I could give less than two ratt's asses, even though you are making shit up to make your strawman argument and then to win an argument that you made up.. great job.  You are quite the rhetorician.

Especially the 3rd world althunter circle with +10 positive trust each in a circlejerk for “finding alts” and being obsessed with leaving red tags.. Most not even having 1/4mm sat to rub together..

I don't hang out in those parts, so I don't really know.. and I am not even sure if it matters very much.. there are a lot of dumbass shitcoiners out there, and if they happen to be on the forum, then so be it.  Maybe they might learn sum kind of thingilie sooner or later? Perhaps?  perhaps?
 

Doesn’t seem like the most optimal situation to me..

While you seem to be a glass half empty kind of guy anyhow, so I sometimes wonder how you have gotten by this long in your life.
 
What do you think?

I think that you like to argue for the mere sake of it, and to make shit up in order to support some dumbass argument that hardly even relates to the points that I was making in my earlier post.. except perhaps tangentially.

 

Get a grip, eddie not ready.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  


 Tongue Tongue Tongue


Anyhow, I am having some trouble relating to anyone who has known about bitcoin, and who had been into BTC for 7 years or so to actually have only in the neighborhood of 1 BTC.. even though I do understand that there might be ways of explaining it, it seems to not be a very good example of how to approach this asset class.

It happens. That's life. Some of us were not in very good positions to keep or maintain or hodl and had to survive, even before the pandemic, even before the bear market.

Basically what eddie13 said too.

At some point, because I simply do not have enough sats, I will also have to "cash out" a little bit. Hopefully there will be more of it left so the "no exit strategy" will work in a few years.

As a mentor of mine once said, it is a problem of having "too much month at the end of the money."

I am still going to judge someone who had 21 BTC being able to put aside $10 per month for 7 years or longer and that might NOT be over invested.

If you want to describe some circumstances to defend your counter-thesis, then go ahead, be my guest.  I still believe that I made a good point, and I am not failing and refusing to account for potential problematic cashflow areas that some people likely have.

Anyhow, I am having some trouble relating to anyone who has known about bitcoin, and who had been into BTC for 7 years or so to actually have only in the neighborhood of 1 BTC.. even though I do understand that there might be ways of explaining it, it seems to not be a very good example of how to approach this asset class.

Being poor, being born into a shit situation/location, living paycheck to paycheck, and sometimes not even that..

That’s why I have been so adamant about NOT selling, because these lottery tickets are basically irreplaceable..
Were, even at sub 10k levels..

I’ve managed to get and hold onto more than one, but any pragmatic person in many of my past situations would have sold them all to keep up in real life, but I did not, and still will not..
I’m doing much better these days, but not everyone have disposable income for wild investments..

On another note, I bet half or more of DT1 on this forum can’t even sign a half a Bitcoin, much less one whole Bitcoin.. Many not even 1/4 or even 1/10th a coin..
How do you feel about most of the democratically elected community leadership on this forum (DT) don’t even have any skin in the game?

Especially the 3rd world althunter circle with +10 positive trust each in a circlejerk for “finding alts” and being obsessed with leaving red tags.. Most not even having 1/4mm sat to rub together..

Doesn’t seem like the most optimal situation to me..
What do you think?

Well... i have been dormant for a while, only recently came back on. I do not regret converting my BTC into Fiat, especially since it gave me the freedom to not be in Debt! In hindsight, i can say that i made full use of the bitcoin i had, it actually all boils down to what makes you happy i guess! In my case, i used it for paying off my mortgage much faster than the 20 year plan i had (paid off in 2 years!). Paid off a new car, bike and went on umpteen holidays which is something my wife and I both love, invested in my hobby of diecast collection, which in itself is worth a fair bit right now!

Do i regret not having all 21 BTC, sure i do, i would have retired without a second thought if i had that kind of purchasing power but then i am looking at a retirement at 40 opposed to 50 which was my earlier plan and it is all because of Bitcoin!

Isn't micky123 making my case for me?  He is not someone who is lacking in disposable income, and sure there are likely cases that are more desperate than micky123's in which some BTC have to be shaved off along the way, but I am also referring going from 21 BTC to less than 1 BTC.. and considering that as a problematic way of treating a BTC investment.  I am sticking to my earlier points, and if people want to give some other facts for the selling of BTC and to justify it, then please, state your case or your hypothetical, which would likely be quite different from the factual circumstances described by micky123.
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April 14, 2021, 10:48:08 PM

I'm all for coinbase doing the IPO and being the "first crypto company to get on nasdaq" BUT the only question I have is.. If you sit on money to invest, why would you buy coinbase stock vs buying btc? Enlighten me someone?


You buy both and the reason is to be diverse.

Although I won't be buying any stocks of any kind.
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April 14, 2021, 10:51:27 PM

Any advice on how to stop Smoking Cigarettes?  Grin

Don't light the next one.
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