Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ivomm]

@sebdebandt
This isn't the cycle top.
#bitcoin  has been trading within 20% of ATH for 51 days.
That's not what a top looks like.
Zoom out.

https://twitter.com/sebdebandt/status/1384836322758742019?s=21

Speaking of past cycles, there is something interesting I've noticed in the present bull run which resembles the 2017's bull run. We can divide 2016-2017 bull run in two parts. The first is from May 2016 to May 2017. The price increased around 600% from the average price 500$ to 3000$. At the same time 3000$ is a 300% increase from the previous ATH 1000$. Then we had 2 months sideways action in the range 10-20% below the 3K ATH. And from August 2017 to December 2017 the price increased 600-700%. And now we have exactly the same situation as in the Summer of 2017 - 600% from the base of 10K in May 2020 and 300% from the last ATH of 20K. We have already 1-2 months of sidewasy action, so it remains to be seen if the next 6 months will repeat the 2017 pattern of 600-700%. Starting from 60K that would be a top between 360K and 420K.  I can live with that  I mean, literally  And this time I really doubt we will see a 85% bottom from the last ATH. IMO it will be more like 35-55%-ish. 

[somac.]

@sebdebandt
This isn't the cycle top.
#bitcoin  has been trading within 20% of ATH for 51 days.
That's not what a top looks like.
Zoom out.

https://twitter.com/sebdebandt/status/1384836322758742019?s=21

Speaking of past cycles, there is something interesting I've noticed in the present bull run which resembles the 2017's bull run. We can divide 2016-2017 bull run in two parts. The first is from May 2016 to May 2017. The price increased around 600% from the average price 500$ to 3000$. At the same time 3000$ is a 300% increase from the previous ATH 1000$. Then we had 2 months sideways action in the range 10-20% below the 3K ATH. And from August 2017 to December 2017 the price increased 600-700%. And now we have exactly the same situation as in the Summer of 2017 - 600% from the base of 10K in May 2020 and 300% from the last ATH of 20K. We have already 1-2 months of sidewasy action, so it remains to be seen if the next 6 months will repeat the 2017 pattern of 600-700%. Starting from 60K that would be a top between 360K and 420K.  I can live with that  I mean, literally  And this time I really doubt we will see a 85% bottom from the last ATH. IMO it will be more like 35-55%-ish. 

Yes, that would do nicely.   

[_javi_]

Transaction fees are crazy as pointed out above.  
Maybe we are heading for a dip first? Not wanting that but just being realistic.

good info, thanks.
TX fees tend to be volatile, though, but maybe you are on to something...or not.
I fully expected a double-hump bull season, but projected first stop to be 70-85K.
If it is 65K instead, then the subsequent "small bear" (before the resumption of the bull in late summer/early fall) should be less punishing.
We shall see. I am not buying or selling here.

I had to pay a 2700usd order at Newegg (0.05 BTC thru Bitpay) as my daughter needs a new laptop for her online "classes" (and daddy wants it to be an rtx3060 one  )

At checkout, i was asked for 22 usd from Coinomi wallet for a 'normal' fee tx. 

(I'm concerned about the payment options presented by Bitpay when Coinomi wallet is selected: BTC... Bcash and Doge  )

[strawbs]

@_javi_

I only just noticed your Manic Miner pic - damn, that brings back memories! We used to play that for hours and hours on end on our ZX Spectrum when I was a kid. The Kempston joystick used to take a hammering  That, and Sabre Wolf are the ones I remember most. Happy carefree days.

[JayJuanGee]

Curious to know who drive again the price down... Didn't think there are still much people to liquidate after the drop to 50K$...

Then we reached 57K last night.. to go back now to the 54K' (or less?).. really ?

Yes it is annoying, but give it time and this consolidation phase will pass.

Just Zoom Out ™ - about six months should do it.

Yes I know but I think it is not the point now to zoom out 6months or more. Ok we made a "fast" run from 10k to 60k (from september 2020). But we are really stucked since more than 2 months in this range (in a supposed very bull market), BTC seems quite breathless.. Can't wait to see how he will close the monthly candle..

You seem to be imposing conditions upon dee king.

We are in a "supposed very bull market" therefore it is unacceptable to spend 2 months around similar prices blah blah blah.. and it has ONLY been a week since our last ATH.. whine whine whine...

Get a fucking grip.. 1 week since the last ATH and only a 20% dip, so far.  Plus you already mentioned moving up more than 6x from September-ish (what is that around 8 months to get 6.5x - now only 5.5x) and it is NOT enough for you?

I'm just saying it's fucking soft, that's a fact. I don't cry, I just make observation. I am into BTC since early 2015 (200$ each) and never sold any of them since.

Whether you are crying or not, you are still complaining about normal price movements, including that we are in a very decent place, and some of the facts you recognized and some I already highlighted in my earlier post.

I know you like to repeat we made new ATHs and blabla. Yes true, but I don't really consider this as It is ATH +1-5%. It is more like a "sideway ATH". Still far from a real move UP, with a real new UP leg.

You are not really saying anything to complain about except that you wished that the price would go up more with less sideways along the way.  and fact of the matter still seems to be that we have had ongoing UPpity with hardly any corrections, and a lot of hovering in the top of the range - which we are still on the border of the top of the range. 

Sure the extreme of the correction was down 20% (to $51,541) from the current $64,895 top from April 14, but we are not even hovering in the bottom of the correction but instead at around $54k (~17%) to $57k (~12%).

Like I already mentioned, nothing to be whining about (even though you do not want to label your remarks as whining), and even to attempt to give way more benefit of the doubt to your "concerns" than they deserve, there is hardly nothing even to see here in terms of depth of correction nor in terms of how long it has been going on because the fact of the matter continues to persist that we have had so much floating at, or near the top (aka "winning") in this particular cycle that several times, I have already proclaimed that these kinds of ongoing and persistent floating at the top of the range does not exist in bitcoin, but it continues to happen despite my ongoing assertions that it does not happen - which also seems to be quite bullish from my perspective, whether it continues to happen or not... and sure it could be the end of the cycle at any time, or we could end up having a BIG ass 50% or more correction (that would be around $32,450), but it seems that in our current ongoingly floating at the top of the range, it is seeming quite more likely that pressures (factual happenings rather than what people are saying) are UP rather than down (even though nothing is guaranteed).

You can consider the facts in front of you in any way that you like including not complaining, complaining or having concerns... blah blah blah.., and surely, I am quite likely to continue to characterize the expressing concerns (aka whining) about small price moves for what they are - even though you are trying to bring some level of legitimacy to what surely appears to be your ongoing inclinations to whine about nothing burgers (or do we call them ant moves - not that a $10k correction in 12 hours or a $8k correction in 30 minutes is anything to be sneezing at - but that is merely the dramatic way BTC prices sometimes move in the short term in order to try to scare some peeps into selling, buying less or whining about it.. hahahahaha)

[BitcoinBunny]

After all this time you would have thought that Roger scam artist Ver would have given up with his silly BCash shite. Tell people it was all just a lie so they can take their money and convert to BTC and we have one scamming cunt coin less on the listings. Thanks.

[_javi_]

@_javi_

I only just noticed your Manic Miner pic - damn, that brings back memories! We used to play that for hours and hours on end on our ZX Spectrum when I was a kid. The Kempston joystick used to take a hammering   That, and Sabre Wolf are the ones I remember most. Happy carefree days.

Hey there, Strawbs!
Yup, nostalgia hits hard when you grow older, and you start to cherish those moments.

Last week I got an N-Go board (Spectrum Next clone) and placed inside a 48k reproduction case (rubber keys). 35 years later i have a Speccy again. To make the perfect combo, i modded an old 21" Sony Trinitron CRT TV, to accept RGB video.  Pure awesomeness!

Enough of the off topic...


I want to note that my Newegg order went thru with BTC at 55300 usd, 20 mins ago.

Now that i spent 0.05, the rise continues ($56200 atm). Thank me later.

[vroom]

mempool is on a multiyear high

[Phil_S]

4 year shift

16x price shift





It does look a little bit like mid-2017...

[Sayeds56]

Curious to know who drive again the price down... Didn't think there are still much people to liquidate after the drop to 50K$...

Then we reached 57K last night.. to go back now to the 54K' (or less?).. really ?

Yes it is annoying, but give it time and this consolidation phase will pass.

Just Zoom Out ™ - about six months should do it.

Yes I know but I think it is not the point now to zoom out 6months or more. Ok we made a "fast" run from 10k to 60k (from september 2020). But we are really stucked since more than 2 months in this range (in a supposed very bull market), BTC seems quite breathless.. Can't wait to see how he will close the monthly candle..

You seem to be imposing conditions upon dee king.

We are in a "supposed very bull market" therefore it is unacceptable to spend 2 months around similar prices blah blah blah.. and it has ONLY been a week since our last ATH.. whine whine whine...

Get a fucking grip.. 1 week since the last ATH and only a 20% dip, so far.  Plus you already mentioned moving up more than 6x from September-ish (what is that around 8 months to get 6.5x - now only 5.5x) and it is NOT enough for you?

You are absolutely right, BTC price went up 6.5 times during the past 8 months then  slightly came down but still stands around 5.5 times which is excellent performance.

[shahzadafzal]

I have tried but then this happens!!!

I will always laugh about this meme, no matter how often i have seen it already 

Seriously now: If the talka(c)tive brain keeps you or anybody from sleeping, read my advice.
Give the area just below your belly button your attention, until you find the "warm spot" right under the skin.
No! Not THAT SPOT!
(...but there is another one of these "warm spots" between your anus and your testicles as well)
The longer you "feel into" that spot, the warmer it gets, it could even start to feel hot and slowly move around a bit, change shape and size and so on.
In case you get bored (success!) you may find it easy to locate some other of those spots within your body, just allow them to light up.

You will use this technique for distraction from your thoughts and feelings of emptiness in the future. It's easier when sitting upright or leaning on a chair/seat/bed/couch. It will put you to sleep if you're tired, it will make you full of energy when you're awake, relax you when you're stressed out.

By the way, while i was typing this, my body started the process by itself, the prominent "hot spot" has slowly widened and moved to my right thigh by the time.
It's an old Zen trick, and you gave me the opportunity to share it 

EDIT: Sometimes it's difficult to start. Just rest the palm of your dominant hand over the spot (...no, not that one, again! the belly one!).

Like “Power of chi!!!” Or “chakras”....? Indeed I heard about it or similar techniques before too. I remember once some massage therapist was telling how to find this spot. I forgot how to find exactly but it was something like put your palm below the belly button and mark the spot, Now put the four fingers on the spot up towards belly button, now that middle area between belly button and your hand is the spot that need to be massaged. I guess you are talking about the same spot. This massage also good for ladies who want to conceive.

But it needs a lot of patience and practice and focus is the key to achieve the results. Well to be honest I did try but nothing happened I mean I didn’t feel any sudden energy or relaxation. In fact the other spot yes little down and just a little massage brings more relaxation hahahaha

By way the I remember my grand mother used to do similar massage to my niece and nephews who were crying at night because of constipation so there is something behind it.

Well here is my personal technique which works for me... a hot shower... not warm but hot. Of course one shouldn’t make it a habit as it will dry your skin. Just take a long hot shower you will have a guaranteed relaxing sleep. Specially when you are traveling.

[El duderino_]

House prices up 8.6% here in Covid rife UK in the past year.
Council tax increase on average 4.3%
Supermarket price increases are not declared but reading between the lines I'd estimate 4-5% easy if you read the price hikes during Covid on certain products and average these out.

Petrol hasn't risen much since last year due to low oil price for most of that time but we are still talking 3.3% at minimum now.
Like I said before my barbers went up 20-25%. I suspect he won't be the only one raising prices after Covid.

But miraculously official yearly inflation is still under 2%.
Funny that hey?

Top job Bank of England!  

Houses up in Belgium as well and UP AF.... Gasoline up from next week I think, just bc I bought a new car that consumes a lot 

[El duderino_]

Hashrate going UP,
Coinmarketcap looking green.
Soon-ish Alts will dump.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good evening WO!
Observing @ $55,620

[macson]

New poll from Cobra


https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1384919233272893450

me....keep it the same

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

[Hueristic]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jy-DYKlujQ

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@jaychervinksy
In my view, the most likely (by a small margin) outcome of this round of Bitcoin ETF proposals is approval for at least three in early November.

The SEC's deadline on VanEck is Nov. 10 & I bet they'll take as long as they can. If we're getting an ETF this cycle, that's the time.
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1384686848593780737?s=21



@danheld
Supercycle baby
https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1384696509686456329?s=21



@BitcoinGuruHQ
The November 10, 2021 VanEck SEC #Bitcoin  ETF deadline would make a beautiful blow off top to my extreme final Megabull target of $400-440K or higher if the ETF is approved. #HODL
https://twitter.com/bitcoinguruhq/status/1384952234564362243?s=21

[Wekkel]

Not sure whether this one has been posted already: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bankers-are-coming-bankers-are-coming-your-bitcoin?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29