Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Arriemoller]

I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.

So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'?
I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price.

I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.

So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth?

Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator.
Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world"

To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth.

Edited.

Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition?

I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned.

I think Hal was suggesting a price of $10M / BTC. That's well within the "total wealth of the world". It's your $1B / BTC prediction that's going way overboard...

Unless you mean that USD will be so devalued by that time, that it will be worth a tiny fraction of today's USD worth. Which means that using USD to measure BTC value may not be a good indicator.

You don't understand, the price of a commodity has nothing to do with the total wealth of the world, they are two separate things.
My prediction is no more overboard then 1100 USD was in 2011 or 20000 USD was in 2015, but time will tell, its just an educated guess.

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[AlcoHoDL]

I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.

So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'?
I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price.

I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.

So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth?

Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator.
Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world"

To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth.

Edited.

Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition?

I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned.

I think Hal was suggesting a price of $10M / BTC. That's well within the "total wealth of the world". It's your $1B / BTC prediction that's going way overboard...

Unless you mean that USD will be so devalued by that time, that it will be worth a tiny fraction of today's USD worth. Which means that using USD to measure BTC value may not be a good indicator.

You don't understand, the price of a commodity has nothing to do with the total wealth of the world, they are two separate things.
My prediction is no more overboard then 1100 USD was in 2011 or 20000 USD was in 2015, but time will tell, its just an educated guess.

The only way I see your "$1B / BTC in 2050" prediction coming true is if the Fed's money printers go real brrrrrrrrrr!

Edit: And, of course, I'm talking about 2050's money, not today's money. "$1B / BTC in today's money" is just insane, at least the way I understand it (and the way Hal understood it when he made that post, I think).

[Arriemoller]

I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.

So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'?
I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price.

I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.

So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth?

Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator.
Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world"

To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth.

Edited.

Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition?

I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned.

I think Hal was suggesting a price of $10M / BTC. That's well within the "total wealth of the world". It's your $1B / BTC prediction that's going way overboard...

Unless you mean that USD will be so devalued by that time, that it will be worth a tiny fraction of today's USD worth. Which means that using USD to measure BTC value may not be a good indicator.

You don't understand, the price of a commodity has nothing to do with the total wealth of the world, they are two separate things.
My prediction is no more overboard then 1100 USD was in 2011 or 20000 USD was in 2015, but time will tell, its just an educated guess.

The only way I see your "$1B / BTC in 2050" prediction coming true is if the Fed's money printers go real brrrrrrrrrr!

Why?

Do you think all demand will dry up when we hit 10 mil?
The only way we will stop at 10 mil is if everybody in the whole world has adopted bitcoin at that point and the price is now stable.
I very much doubt that.

[AlcoHoDL]

I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.

So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'?
I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price.

I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.

So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth?

Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator.
Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world"

To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth.

Edited.

Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition?

I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned.

I think Hal was suggesting a price of $10M / BTC. That's well within the "total wealth of the world". It's your $1B / BTC prediction that's going way overboard...

Unless you mean that USD will be so devalued by that time, that it will be worth a tiny fraction of today's USD worth. Which means that using USD to measure BTC value may not be a good indicator.

You don't understand, the price of a commodity has nothing to do with the total wealth of the world, they are two separate things.
My prediction is no more overboard then 1100 USD was in 2011 or 20000 USD was in 2015, but time will tell, its just an educated guess.

The only way I see your "$1B / BTC in 2050" prediction coming true is if the Fed's money printers go real brrrrrrrrrr!

Why?

Do you think all demand will dry up when we hit 10 mil?
The only way we will stop at 10 mil is if everybody in the whole world has adopted bitcoin at that point and the price is now stable.
I very much doubt that.

So, you're saying that we'll stop at $10M / BTC if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is 100%, but we can go 100x (at $1B / BTC) if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is less than 100%?

I'm clearly not understanding something here...

Edit: I guess what you mean is that there will come a time when BTC coins will be seen as extremely rare objects of desire, much like Leonardo da Vinci's Mona Lisa, so the price can be set arbitrarily high. Well, there is only one Mona Lisa, but millions of BTC... I don't think Mona Lisa's price would be the same if there were 18 million identical Mona Lisas available. Supply & demand. In any case, $10M / BTC is already beyond most HoDLers' wildest expectations, and I would prefer a worldwide adoption approaching 100%, which gives HoDLers safety, as well as wealth.

[Sayeds56]

Look at the charts from the last bull run. You will feel better about where we are right now.
I see something exceptionally parabolic move.
Halfway through the cycle.

You are absolutely right.





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/pUjKZdrh-BITCOIN-All-bearish-barriers-broken-Stairway-to-70k/

[Kylapoiss]

*SNIP*

So, you're saying that we'll stop at $10M / BTC if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is 100%, but we can go 100x (at $1B / BTC) if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is less than 100%?

I'm clearly not understanding something here...

Edit: I guess what you mean is that there will come a time when BTC coins will be seen as extremely rare objects of desire, much like Leonardo da Vinci's Mona Lisa, so the price can be set arbitrarily high. Well, there is only one Mona Lisa, but millions of BTC... I don't think Mona Lisa's price would be the same if there were 18 million identical Mona Lisas available. Supply & demand. In any case, $10M / BTC is already beyond most HoDLers' wildest expectations, and I would prefer a worldwide adoption approaching 100%, which gives HoDLers safety, as well as wealth.

So you say if there were 18 million Mona Lisas then each and every one of them would cost 60k? I doubt that.

I understand what Arrie is saying but I think 1b is a bit overthrown, maybe somewhere around 100mil in todays value by 2050.

Does todays money supply even matter? Why BTC can't overrun the total monetary value?

[AlcoHoDL]

*SNIP*

So, you're saying that we'll stop at $10M / BTC if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is 100%, but we can go 100x (at $1B / BTC) if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is less than 100%?

I'm clearly not understanding something here...

Edit: I guess what you mean is that there will come a time when BTC coins will be seen as extremely rare objects of desire, much like Leonardo da Vinci's Mona Lisa, so the price can be set arbitrarily high. Well, there is only one Mona Lisa, but millions of BTC... I don't think Mona Lisa's price would be the same if there were 18 million identical Mona Lisas available. Supply & demand. In any case, $10M / BTC is already beyond most HoDLers' wildest expectations, and I would prefer a worldwide adoption approaching 100%, which gives HoDLers safety, as well as wealth.

So you say if there were 18 million Mona Lisas then each and every one of them would cost 60k? I doubt that.

I understand what Arrie is saying but I think 1b is a bit overthrown, maybe somewhere around 100mil in todays value by 2050.

Does todays money supply even matter? Why BTC can't overrun the total monetary value?

Bitcoin is transcending from being a store of value to being value itself.

I like the sound of that!

[Kylapoiss]

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

This hasn't been posted for a while, looks like we are gaining immortality

[OutOfMemory]

Price going down yo.

Say hello to CME futures expiry 
Tomorrow it's settlement day, number be going up yo 
Did i already mention i hate bitcoin options and futures contracts, because of the manipulators they attracted? 

[Phil_S]

95.2 million barrels of oil was produced daily in 2019.
The price was something like 65 USD a barrel.
95,2 million times 65 USD is a lot more than the world wide wealth of 10 million dollars, how is that possible? there is no way people is going to be able to buy all that oil, there is not enough money in the world.

World wide wealth is not 10 million dollars.

[Sayeds56]

Price going down yo.

Say hello to CME futures expiry 
Tomorrow it's settlement day, number be going up yo 
Did i already mention i hate bitcoin options and futures contracts, because of the manipulators they attracted? 

Absolutely right. Options and Futures contracts are SHOW STOPPERS.

[somac.]

Price going down yo.

Say hello to CME futures expiry  
Tomorrow it's settlement day, number be going up yo  
Did i already mention i hate bitcoin options and futures contracts, because of the manipulators they attracted?  

This same thing happens every Sunday though. I'm tempted to channel proudhon on the Saturday and go max short with 100x leverage until the Monday.  

[ImThour]

Finally, my parents are going to invest in BTC. 
Let's hope they get the same profit percentage I got in 2 years.

[lightfoot]

This little video clip explains shitcoins perfectly.

https://i.imgur.com/4ANvLEV.mp4

[Arriemoller]

95.2 million barrels of oil was produced daily in 2019.
The price was something like 65 USD a barrel.
95,2 million times 65 USD is a lot more than the world wide wealth of 10 million dollars, how is that possible? there is no way people is going to be able to buy all that oil, there is not enough money in the world.

World wide wealth is not 10 million dollars.

No of course not, it's not my words, it's apparently Hal Finney's

[Torque]

Charlie Munger calls bitcoin ‘disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization’
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/01/charlie-munger-calls-bitcoin-disgusting-and-contrary-to-the-interests-of-civilization.html

“Of course I hate the bitcoin success,” the 97-year-old Munger said during a Q&A session at Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting Saturday. “I don’t welcome a currency that’s so useful to kidnappers and extortionists and so forth, nor do I like just shuffling out of your extra billions of billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air.”

“I think I should say modestly that the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization,” said Munger, a legendary investor in his own right.

Can this corrupt, belligerent, impotent old man just fk off and die already?

[Torque]

This little video clip explains shitcoins perfectly.

https://i.imgur.com/4ANvLEV.mp4

The whales are pump and dumping shitcoins, and using the profits to quietly acquire more bitcoin.

We are fully in the accumulation phase now, so btc could go sidewides for quite a long while. Many months even.

The accumulators know what is coming down the pipe.

[Phil_S]

Hal Finney used $200 trillion as estimation for worldwide wealth.

He divided that number by 20 million bitcoins, and the result is $10 mil per bitcoin estimation.

[Arriemoller]

I believe 10 million is a very conservative estimate.

So you think the total value of all bitcoins reaching the total worldwide household wealth is 'conservative'?
I think Hal was trying to estimate the upper limit for btc price.

I believe that within 30 years bitcoin will be worth around 1billion USD in todays money.

So the total value of all bitcoins would be... 100x of worldwide wealth?

Yes, world wide wealth is a very sucky indicator.
Wealth is unevenly distributed, all it takes is for the wealthy to buy all the bitcoin they can, and the price will surge well above the "total wealth of the world"

To be clearer, bitcoin is a commodity, the price is set by supply and demand. The price of a single bitcoin has nothing to do with the total world wealth, just like the price of a barrel of oil or a Rolls Royce has nothing to do with total world wealth.

Edited.

Yes, but all those Bitcoins will be owned by people... Won't they then be part of the "total wealth of the world" by definition?

I don't know, I don't know where Hal got his numbers from and if those numbers included commodities owned or if it was just fiat money owned.

I think Hal was suggesting a price of $10M / BTC. That's well within the "total wealth of the world". It's your $1B / BTC prediction that's going way overboard...

Unless you mean that USD will be so devalued by that time, that it will be worth a tiny fraction of today's USD worth. Which means that using USD to measure BTC value may not be a good indicator.

You don't understand, the price of a commodity has nothing to do with the total wealth of the world, they are two separate things.
My prediction is no more overboard then 1100 USD was in 2011 or 20000 USD was in 2015, but time will tell, its just an educated guess.

The only way I see your "$1B / BTC in 2050" prediction coming true is if the Fed's money printers go real brrrrrrrrrr!

Why?

Do you think all demand will dry up when we hit 10 mil?
The only way we will stop at 10 mil is if everybody in the whole world has adopted bitcoin at that point and the price is now stable.
I very much doubt that.

So, you're saying that we'll stop at $10M / BTC if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is 100%, but we can go 100x (at $1B / BTC) if worldwide Bitcoin adoption is less than 100%?

I'm clearly not understanding something here...

Edit: I guess what you mean is that there will come a time when BTC coins will be seen as extremely rare objects of desire, much like Leonardo da Vinci's Mona Lisa, so the price can be set arbitrarily high. Well, there is only one Mona Lisa, but millions of BTC... I don't think Mona Lisa's price would be the same if there were 18 million identical Mona Lisas available. Supply & demand. In any case, $10M / BTC is already beyond most HoDLers' wildest expectations, and I would prefer a worldwide adoption approaching 100%, which gives HoDLers safety, as well as wealth.

Basically, yes and yes.
The supply and demand formula tells us that when there is a limited supply (or infinite demand, like for example hospital treatment for a life threatening heart attack), the price goes up much, much faster/higher when demand increases then in a normal market situation, it's called inelastic supply.
Now assume that about two percent of the world population owns bitcoin today, and the price is already at 60k, then just imagine what the price will be when 50 percent of the worlds population owns bitcoin, and add institutional investors on top of that, then 1 bil doesn't seem to far away anymore.

[Torque]

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

This hasn't been posted for a while, looks like we are gaining immortality

I love how they have added the little price chart into it.