Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Yaplatu]

[Arriemoller]

It's quite sad that Elon tweeting about bitcoin and tesla accepting bitcoin for their cars had a bigger impact on price than a country turning it into real currency, like wtf.

To be honest, many people don't regard El Salvador et al as a real country.

[Arriemoller]

So It was hot as hell last night and I decided to go outside, naked, to cool of (I live in the countryside). It so happened that I walked in to my neighbors old corral and what I thought was just high grass was also nettles. I stung my legs, butt, and Helmuth and the glockenspiel, I have had a trying night.

just learned the name is "Johnson". amateurs.  

Helmuth Johnson

[modrobert]

MSM Narrative:

"China imposing bitcoin mining crackdown, forcing large miners to shut down"


Reality:

"China insiders subsidizing large miners to temporarily turn off hash power. Will tell them to resume when insider whales have scooped up enough cheap coins."


AKA I'm not buying into this "China miner crackdown FUD BS" for an instant.  

Their actions in that propaganda SCMP video ending with Bitcoin miners in handcuffs remind me of the old days when China tried to impress the west (increasing their WTO rating) by destroying massive amounts of copy DVDs with road rollers. Sure, it looked impressive, but still not that much considering total total amount of pirated DVD.



The question is; are they acting once again under diplomatic pressure to improve US relations?

[Paashaas]

PlanB
@100trillionUSD

Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down.

There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1406577006230245376?s=21

Wow... "worst case scenario" is pretty damned BIG... especially for a supposed "scientist."

His best case scenario is $450k. Let's meet the middle $200-$300k.

[LoyceV]

Wonder if the state is demanding bribes from big mining farms to continue operations. Once paid they’ll allow mining to continue.

If it's the state, it's called taxes instead of bribes.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DeathAngel]

@woonomic
Oh my, Rick Astley is back. Coins are moving back to the HODLer who never deserts his BTC.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1406663952860278784?s=21


@woonomic
The previous chart was a 30 day sum of coin movements.

Here's the 7 day view showing greater granularity.

We can see how the mass of coins dumped out to speculative hands are being re-accumulated by strong hands in a pattern similar to the COVID recovery (8 weeks to recover).

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1406663959948578821?s=21


@woonomic

So who is selling?

Whales aren't selling.
Sharks aren't selling.
Dolphins aren't selling.

Big holders are holding.


https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1406663968035246082?s=21


@woonomic
Octopussies and fishies are stacking this dip.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1406663974624530439?s=21


@woonomic
Crabs are stacking as hard as their little shells will let them.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1406663982576848898?s=21


@woonomic
Shrimps are taking their lead and stacking like there's no tomorrow, especially in the latest dip.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1406663989644337156?s=21


@woonomic
User growth as strong as ever on the network.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1406663996355190790?s=21


@woonomic
So yeah, it's definitely a bear market folks.

🙄←sarcasm

We should all panic sell because traders tell us there's two moving averages that just crossed and they carry the name "death" in it. Sounds so scary. 😱
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1406663998972469248?s=21

[Phil_S]

sgbett prediction from 1 year ago:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2541338.msg54661336#msg54661336

 

[DeathAngel]

sgbett prediction from 1 year ago:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2541338.msg54661336#msg54661336

 

Just another salty forker/big blocker

[vapourminer]

sgbett prediction from 1 year ago:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2541338.msg54661336#msg54661336

 

well to be fair he has another 24 hours or so for btc to drop from ~35k to ~1k as that post was on 21 june. thats if im reading that post right..

and in that case he would lose the dudes game though, so theres that.

[Biodom]

Tactically, we are about to enter the bitcoin season.
If @Wekkel is right and we do briefly go to about 15K in btc, this would mean that alts would lose 80-90% or even more.
I raised quite a bit of cash from alts in the last mo...ready to deploy to btc.
Right now-it is all house money. My initial $$ allocation to bitcoin is paid for, but no large purchases of real estate, gold, etc yet.

My btc projection number is higher than Wekkel's-I don't expect us to go lower than 19-20K (they might try to push it below prior ATH for giggles).
If this is still to be considered a bull market, a trip close to 200wk average of 13K is a no-no under normal (non emergency) circumstances.
I am not sure if we are still in a bull or bear-a coin toss.
This market cycle was characterized by two front-running (that were ahead of S2F) waves of 2019 and 2020-2021 .
Maybe they are now front-running the bear earlier than expected.

TL;DR A coin toss between a bull and a bear; raised funds from alts, ready to deploy to bitcoin (at least 90%) when I am ready. If current bear reverses back to bull soonish, then I will ladder to the upside faster.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

https://twitter.com/littleprinceJD/status/1406224760141406212?s=20

little reminder....

Btw can someone make he meme and post it here ?? 

This means the lightning network absolutely HAS to work.

This is the moment of truth.

I think very few realize how absolutely important this fact is

This is the reason I have been doing what I have been doing since it came up... I had the 177th node on the network (I just retired it.. too hard to freaking maintain).  I cannot code, but I have been testing and learning.
I honestly wonder how much use it is currently getting.

The other ugly truth is MOST of the transactions that are happening in BTC are happening OFF THE CHAIN.

This is hard for me to explain, but it just hit me, on a new level, how incredibly important this is.

As people opt in to Bitcoin and want to get exposure to the asset they are doing this through custodians.  It is very rare that even the members of this forum really take responsibility for their coins.  When I first started using Bitcoin to play poker I would never leave my coins on the poker site even.  And the ONLY reason an exchange EVER touched any of my coins was for trading.

When you but bitcoin on ____________ there is no transaction on the chain (unless it's Bisq)  And may traders buy and sell tons without ever really leaving the exchange.

I am just babbling.  I will stop.  But it's time for the decentralized transaction layers to start to rev their engines...

Wow... here we go.

[cAPSLOCK]

The Dogecar has crashed during the race...

 
https://twitter.com/NASCARonNBC/status/1406349369276735489

Are we sure that was a crash?  It CANNOT be pure coincidence that the driver spelled out the total emission of DOGE with his tires in that second picture!

(edit ah saw I was not first to see this lol)

[cAPSLOCK]

lnbc1psvuz26pp5pedga2d2ps3n6c3t2nfdmz0mm5ve9ldjjhq4k7l3kk6cv02hmhnsdqu2askcmr9w ssx7e3q2dshgmmndp5scqzpgxqyz5vqsp559lk0jgepd3qum2ezp9nzz52v6qzf7umk7fmxn72xrpkg h56366s9qyyssq88a9q0aqk8kfxk7v6z7c0xn3ple9lkfrhyeddf3wdvpz4p6kshk4g8wdwuw0cx73l nssk5ta242phvsgmk8edr0sfut8legaavypnzqqlqrfg4

I get an error in all of my 3 LN wallets when trying to paste this address (invalid character?).

This is probably because it is a non-amount invoice and your wallet does not support it, OR because the invoice was already used.

What wallets are you using?

The UX in lightning is going to have to IMPROVE VERY QUICKLY.

[becoin]

My btc projection number is higher than Wekkel's-I don't expect us to go lower than 19-20K (they might try to push it below prior ATH for giggles).

I smell a nocoiner that sold his bitcoins at 19k.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

lnbc1psvuz26pp5pedga2d2ps3n6c3t2nfdmz0mm5ve9ldjjhq4k7l3kk6cv02hmhnsdqu2askcmr9w ssx7e3q2dshgmmndp5scqzpgxqyz5vqsp559lk0jgepd3qum2ezp9nzz52v6qzf7umk7fmxn72xrpkg h56366s9qyyssq88a9q0aqk8kfxk7v6z7c0xn3ple9lkfrhyeddf3wdvpz4p6kshk4g8wdwuw0cx73l nssk5ta242phvsgmk8edr0sfut8legaavypnzqqlqrfg4

I get an error in all of my 3 LN wallets when trying to paste this address (invalid character?).

That "invoice" has been been paid already by me, seems to expire after receiving a payment, not sure about the error you got, but when I tried using "Wallet of Satoshi" to pay again now it looks like this:



Also, as I mentioned before, LN address needs to be one line in the clipboard when pasting, not split by new lines (the developers of the wallet should fix this, easily done, strip LF chars).

I have sent an email to the "Wallet of Satoshi" support asking if there's a way to get "permanent receive address" which can take more than one payment, and also how long these Lightning addresses last. Waiting for reply.

I actually think LNURL might work for this, but it is also a feature not implemented everywhere.  Possibly as interesting is the identity/2factor types of application this might enable.

[cAPSLOCK]

PlanB
@100trillionUSD

Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down.

There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1406577006230245376?s=21

This one as painful to me...  PlanB is hedging his prediction.

I personally think S2F HAS to break, but I would sure rather it break the OTHER way