Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

My btc projection number is higher than Wekkel's-I don't expect us to go lower than 19-20K (they might try to push it below prior ATH for giggles).

I smell a nocoiner that sold his bitcoins at 19k.

Why does anyone belief its gonna drop just because we are lower and consolidating ... ? Few weeks back same people where aiming for 70-80-90-100K short-middle term, just normal market behavior imo.

Going lower is always a part of the story but why does everyone suddenly think when we have 50% drop that another 50% is gonna happen?

I see hard coiners disappoint me from time to time and probably a lot of people are getting emotionally while they think they don't etc...
At the end of the story, we are all just humans, tough I expect the highest level of HODL-DIAMOND hands from people with my activity and more....

Btw I also do hope for moon every sec,  but I do ride the waves when they are here...

One of the most important things poker taught me was emotion control.  And just to let things that happen as they happen.

I have friends that "check in" on me every price drop.  They get more emotional about what they think I should feel rather than I. Ha!  

It's all just numbers in the end.

And we all know (as well as we possibly can) where it goes in the end.

I do not see how bitcoin can go to sub 20k.  Too many very big buyers wanting to get in.  And make no mistake.  They are getting in, not on the retail exchanges, but over the counter.

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[cAPSLOCK]

So, weekend dump for ants? More cheap coins to MS.

Its kind of amzing really, every weekend has a dump. Might just be for ants, but a dump none the less.

Also, haven't heard if MS have bought yet, I wonder if they are entering slower this time and perhaps closer to the lows.

I only know I went out for a morning swim… when getting back inside checked the price and saw 1k lower sigh ….

Would hate to pay cheap corn tomo and hate it more if it’s to the hands of a BSV’er

Thinking out loud, wtf am I doing 

Sorry.  I put this miserable thought in your head!  Lol.

If what he says is true that he got rid of ALL his Bitcoin for BSV can you imagine how he must feel?  I was just bragging on balls of steel for swings, but BSV?

Say he put 1000 bitcoin in.  That would leave him with between 100-250 bitcoin worth at this point.

[modrobert]

https://twitter.com/littleprinceJD/status/1406224760141406212?s=20

little reminder....

Btw can someone make he meme and post it here ??  

This means the lightning network absolutely HAS to work.

This is the moment of truth.

I think very few realize how absolutely important this fact is

This is the reason I have been doing what I have been doing since it came up... I had the 177th node on the network (I just retired it.. too hard to freaking maintain).  I cannot code, but I have been testing and learning.
I honestly wonder how much use it is currently getting.

The other ugly truth is MOST of the transactions that are happening in BTC are happening OFF THE CHAIN.

This is hard for me to explain, but it just hit me, on a new level, how incredibly important this is.

As people opt in to Bitcoin and want to get exposure to the asset they are doing this through custodians.  It is very rare that even the members of this forum really take responsibility for their coins.  When I first started using Bitcoin to play poker I would never leave my coins on the poker site even.  And the ONLY reason an exchange EVER touched any of my coins was for trading.

When you but bitcoin on ____________ there is no transaction on the chain (unless it's Bisq)  And may traders buy and sell tons without ever really leaving the exchange.

I am just babbling.  I will stop.  But it's time for the decentralized transaction layers to start to rev their engines...

Wow... here we go.

Agreed, but more like Lightning is tied into the chain, not completely "off chain". (Loosely I view it a bit like an on-chain Bitcoin transaction with one confirmation security wise.)

Lightning is bullish as hell in my opinion, transactions at the speed of internet, channels locked into the Bitcoin blockchain via segwit, with taproot on the horizon increasing privacy and more (DLCs etc).

From my limited testing so far Lightning is definitely how I envisioned Bitcoin as a currency used by merchants and services. I think classic on-chain Bitcoin wallets will continue to be used as it is today, eg. savings/investment and unregulated "bank wire transfer" done right. I'm happy about the future for Bitcoin, but also think the whole world will benefit, finally we can move towards one planet and one human race instead of silly countries with all the bullshit limitations and friction that imposes. The future starts with a real common currency, go Bitcoin!

PS: While writing this post BTC/USD rate went up through the view of the browser tab (on the way to punch a hole through the top corner of my monitor), so perhaps a bit overly positive, and again, maybe not.

[Wekkel]

I like doing small micro transactions on the LN network. It simply
works, also for 1 sat transactions. With mobile wallets a plenty now, there is nothing stopping us except for taking away more technical road blocks.

It’s amazing to see where LN currently stands with a launch as recent as 2018.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

My btc projection number is higher than Wekkel's-I don't expect us to go lower than 19-20K (they might try to push it below prior ATH for giggles).

I smell a nocoiner that sold his bitcoins at 19k.

He's not a nocoiner for what I know... he's just a bit... weird... perhaps desperately trying to DCA some extra sats... 

[Gyrsur]

The Composite Operator is buying your bitcoins big time.

[Wekkel]

Probably posted already but a nice read up of why Bitcoin is important: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/.amp/culture/bitcoin-illusion-of-reality

[serveria.com]

People losing their minds, i'm flabergasted  that they completly ignoring on-chain metrics.

We are not in a Bear market.

Take a beer have sex ore go walk in the park and take a deep breath.

Just watch out for the nettle near your private parts!   Hope Arrie is ok by now...  

[Gyrsur]

can't remember seeing the touch of the 78.6% Fibo level.




the opposite measurement. we will see.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

I'm staying a little on the sidelines recently. Life calls and all. Seeing some dodgy price action with unexplicable - artificial? - drops and a few recoveries. Just don't poke her: she knows her way.

[philipma1957]

My btc projection number is higher than Wekkel's-I don't expect us to go lower than 19-20K (they might try to push it below prior ATH for giggles).

I smell a nocoiner that sold his bitcoins at 19k.

Why does anyone belief its gonna drop just because we are lower and consolidating ... ? Few weeks back same people where aiming for 70-80-90-100K short-middle term, just normal market behavior imo.

Going lower is always a part of the story but why does everyone suddenly think when we have 50% drop that another 50% is gonna happen?

I see hard coiners disappoint me from time to time and probably a lot of people are getting emotionally while they think they don't etc...
At the end of the story, we are all just humans, tough I expect the highest level of HODL-DIAMOND hands from people with my activity and more....

Btw I also do hope for moon every sec,  but I do ride the waves when they are here...

Look at difficulty dropping.

this is the opposite of what happened from Jan 2018 to Sept 2018.

the difficulty was up at the end of every month as price was dropping.

This time the difficulty is dropping as price is dropping.

Yeah we could say it is the lack of chips so no new gear.

But this is a new pattern.

Which could mean a new price pattern will evolve in the next two- three months.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Look at difficulty dropping.

this is the opposite of what happened from Jan 2018 to Sept 2018.

the difficulty was up at the end of every month as price was dropping.

This time the difficulty is dropping as price is dropping.

Yeah we could say it is the lack of chips so no new gear.

But this is a new pattern.

Which could mean a new price pattern will evolve in the next two- three months.

How has sha256 alt marketshare changed? If sha256 alts are doing stupid gains, it could be miners want to have some of that for themselves while BTC's price is wandering around in the wilderness.

[cAPSLOCK]

Agreed, but more like Lightning is tied into the chain, not completely "off chain". (Loosely I view it a bit like an on-chain Bitcoin transaction with one confirmation security wise.)

Lightning is bullish as hell in my opinion, transactions at the speed of internet, channels locked into the Bitcoin blockchain via segwit, with taproot on the horizon increasing privacy and more (DLCs etc).

From my limited testing so far Lightning is definitely how I envisioned Bitcoin as a currency used by merchants and services. I think classic on-chain Bitcoin wallets will continue to be used as it is today, eg. savings/investment and unregulated "bank wire transfer" done right. I'm happy about the future for Bitcoin, but also think the whole world will benefit, finally we can move towards one planet and one human race instead of silly countries with all the bullshit limitations and friction that imposes. The future starts with a real common currency, go Bitcoin!

PS: While writing this post BTC/USD rate went up through the view of the browser tab (on the way to punch a hole through the top corner of my monitor), so perhaps a bit overly positive, and again, maybe not.

I think the biggest hurdle is UX, but I think lot's of the wallets are starting to handle that.  Strike is a good example in that is give users a LOT of ways to transfer value but staying denominated in Fiat, which for now is going to stay important.

But using Strike to transfer money as well as even to buy bitcoin is underrated as to how it will work in the world.

How many confirmations are needed to send yourself 1mm sats on the LN?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

My btc projection number is higher than Wekkel's-I don't expect us to go lower than 19-20K (they might try to push it below prior ATH for giggles).

I smell a nocoiner that sold his bitcoins at 19k.

He's not a nocoiner for what I know... he's just a bit... weird... perhaps desperately trying to DCA some extra sats... 

Myself or Wekkel? ..and how would you know anything? This is just laughable, man.
Somehow, you confuse the discussion of price with price prediction OR with where I would like it to go.

I would like it to go to 100K tomorrow and stay there OR I would like it to increase 1% a day, every day for the next, say, 5 years.
It does not depend on my opinion and i am not trying to scare anybody to sell for me to buy. I can buy anytime and I do.
Somehow, around here only rah-rah messages are cogitated, it is becoming like a 'scared children' lounge.
Remember @jjg taking issue with myself saying that it is "stalled" with misplaced pontifications of his/hers.
It not only stalled, but declined a good 40% since then. It's too bad I did not sell almost any at 50-55.

[modrobert]

How many confirmations are needed to send yourself 1mm sats on the LN?

None, the channel exist already. When the LN channel is opened sometime before sending there will be Bitcoin on-chain confirmations for the multisig addresses created which later when closed will be a net total of all LN transactions within. The way I understood it now, after reading some more, segwit is only used when a legacy wallet is involved, with bech32 (multisig) wallet it is not needed, but could be wrong, still learning.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation