loyce lump sum is an all or nothing attitude .
why not do a nice 3 way concept.
DCA
Downward ladder
Basement lumpsum
you are good with numbers do all 3 a figure a proper ratio.
say x a week dca
x at 30030
x at 29029
x at 28028
x at 27027
x at 26026
x at 25025
x at 24024
5x at 20020
10x at 19019
some variation of above means you will buy at least x a week on dca and you may never buy the ladder or the lump
but you are doing a 3 way and have all 3 covered.
set up a sell ladder at
x 65k
x 66k
x 67k
x 68k
5x 75k
10x 100k
only use the dca coins for the sell method
twist and tweak a bit and you are done.
I agree with your various points on the buy side, phillip... and so yes, there are a lot of ways to structure and to think about buying BTC that allows the set up to be individually tailorized so that way fewer emotions would come from BTC price movements because the buyer has thought about his/her personal situation and has set up his/her BTC buy strategy in such a way that there is no need to attempt to guess about the stupid-ass (all over the god-damned place) BTC price or to be emotional about what the BTC price ends up doing.
On the other hand, if the BTC buyer/accumulator discovers that s/he is still experiencing a lot of emotion regarding whether s/he is buying too much BTC at certain price points or s/he is not sufficiently prepared for extremes that could happen in either BTC price direction, then in those circumstances, there should not be a reason to throw your hands up in the air and abandon the whole plan (or to say.. I am not going to do anything because I do not know which way the BTC price might go.... well, get a fucking grip, none of us know which way the BTC price might go, and it really does not matter if it is moving a lot or a little, there are possibilities that the BTC price can go to some level that we do not expect, and then just get stuck there for a long time). In other words, instead of giving up, and not doing anything, tweak the plan until it reaches a higher comfort level (financially/psychologically) and move on into ongoing accumulation of sats.
We have seen way too many instances historically that people who want to accumulate a BTC position are sitting around waiting for too damned long, and what ends up happening is that they end up causing their own lil selfies to be boxed out of even being close to being adequately prepared for UP... which by now, we should realize can happen at any time, even though the situation frequently will feel kind of dire in terms of how likely is UP.
Regarding your suggestions on setting up BTC sell ladders, I personally believe that threshold for anyone with BTC buy/accumulation goals to even getting to the point of setting up any kinds of BTC sell ladders is way more than just making a BIG spread between the buy and the sell orders and then saying that you are going to sell a bit of BTC to feel MOAR better.. That superficial approach seems to be placing too much value on the dollar, and not enough consideration that selling BTC might not allow for the buying back of such BTC at a lower price.
That kind of approach of selling too much BTC too soon could result in a kind of nonsense way under-allocation in BTC because the buyer/accumulator is trying to accumulate more BTC but going through that attempt to accumulate more BTC process by selling BTC..
It is very problematic to try to attempt to accumulate more BTC by selling, and I personally believe that there is a need to either reach BTC accumulation goals first (or perhaps reach beyond the BTC accumulation goals... aka overallocation) and/or alternatively to reach high levels of profitability in whatever BTC is held in order that shaving off some BTC here and there on the way up is not any kind of big deal, even if the BTC price never comes back down to be able to buy back in.
Let's say, for example, the BTC buyer/accumulator is in his 20s or early 30s, and s/he does not have a whole hell of a lot of savings, and perhaps ONLY has BTC and dollars within the investment strategy. Maybe if such person has been into BTC for a while, then s/he has reached the 0.21 BTC goal or maybe even reached a more than 1 BTC goal, but ever since this whole realization of the severity of the money printer go burr problem (realized around early 2020), the BTC buyer/accumulator realizes that s/he is going to need to accumulate the equivalence of $2 million in BTC value in a kind of 10 year-ish (or even 20 year-ish) timeline rather than $1 million.. because $1 million of value just does not seem like it is going to be even close to being enough to have any kind of "fuck you" status comfort level.. even if the target threshold of $2 million is intended as a starting point (and a ballpark all at the same time).
Even if there are pretty compelling BTC price prediction theories connected with stock to flow, 4-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects, we still cannot really know with any kind of certainty what BTC prices are going to do in the time-frame that we are trying to get to our target BTC accumulation value of $2 million... So we might question whether it is going to take 5 years, 10 years, 20 years or even longer to reach that level of BTC accumulation.
I personally believe that right now to attempt to be somewhat realistic and practical, any person striving to reach "fuck you" status based on a $2million entry level valuation would currently need to have about 150 BTC. I also believe that measuring from the 208-week moving average and presuming a 12% per year increase in the 208-week moving average is a relatively fair tentative (even though conservative) way to project BTC price bottoms forward into the future, and currently the 208-week moving average is a bit below $13,333.. but it is ongoingly moving UP.
Furthermore, in my thinking the projection of bottoms remains a way stronger financial and psychological framework when considering BTC value and attempting to account for near inevitable ongoing crazy volatility rather than trying to measure from some medium price or some top price or whatever other difficult to measure nonsense... Instead, let's try not to get ahead of our lil selfies and let's measure extreme bottom prices for our value foundation and go from there in order to attempt to justify what to do or might do along the way.
Here's what the 208-week looks like if we chart it out for the next 20 years (hey.. what the fuck do I know?, but the BTC price projection is a shot at giving us a ballpark BTC price bottom framework), and if we look at every 6 months along the way, we will see that we can project that the number of BTC needed to reach $2 million should be going down lower and lower with the passage of time and even quite radically, if we really consider the matter of getting down to less than 14 BTC being required in 20 years to reach $2million bottom valuation.. and sure, for people with modest budgets, it could take a while to reach a $2 million status, but is there any other horse that you can think of that is going to be faster in this race over the coming years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years or more?.. and sure price might end up out performing (or even underperforming) these relatively conservative BTC price expectations.
Start $ StartDate % gain /time Time (every 6months) Goal$13,333.33 6/25/21 6.00% 182.6 days $2,000,000
Date Price gain/time BTC#/Goal6/25/21 $13,333.33 $800.00 150.00003750
12/24/21 $14,133.33 $848.00 141.50946934
6/25/22 $14,981.33 $898.88 133.49949938
12/24/22 $15,880.21 $952.81 125.94292394
6/25/23 $16,833.02 $1,009.98 118.81407919
12/25/23 $17,843.00 $1,070.58 112.08875395
6/24/24 $18,913.58 $1,134.82 105.74410750
12/24/24 $20,048.40 $1,202.90 99.75859198
6/24/25 $21,251.30 $1,275.08 94.11187923
12/24/25 $22,526.38 $1,351.58 88.78479173
6/25/26 $23,877.96 $1,432.68 83.75923748
12/24/26 $25,310.64 $1,518.64 79.01814856
6/25/27 $26,829.28 $1,609.76 74.54542317
12/24/27 $28,439.04 $1,706.34 70.32587092
6/24/28 $30,145.38 $1,808.72 66.34516124
12/24/28 $31,954.10 $1,917.25 62.58977476
6/24/29 $33,871.35 $2,032.28 59.04695732
12/24/29 $35,903.63 $2,154.22 55.70467672
6/24/30 $38,057.85 $2,283.47 52.55158181
12/24/30 $40,341.32 $2,420.48 49.57696397
6/25/31 $42,761.80 $2,565.71 46.77072073
12/24/31 $45,327.50 $2,719.65 44.12332144
6/24/32 $48,047.15 $2,882.83 41.62577494
12/23/32 $50,929.98 $3,055.80 39.26959900
6/24/33 $53,985.78 $3,239.15 37.04679151
12/24/33 $57,224.93 $3,433.50 34.94980331
6/24/34 $60,658.42 $3,639.51 32.97151256
12/24/34 $64,297.93 $3,857.88 31.10520053
6/24/35 $68,155.81 $4,089.35 29.34452880
12/24/35 $72,245.15 $4,334.71 27.68351774
6/24/36 $76,579.86 $4,594.79 26.11652617
12/23/36 $81,174.65 $4,870.48 24.63823223
6/24/37 $86,045.13 $5,162.71 23.24361531
12/23/37 $91,207.84 $5,472.47 21.92793897
6/24/38 $96,680.31 $5,800.82 20.68673488
12/24/38 $102,481.13 $6,148.87 19.51578762
6/24/39 $108,630.00 $6,517.80 18.41112040
12/24/39 $115,147.80 $6,908.87 17.36898151
6/23/40 $122,056.67 $7,323.40 16.38583161
12/23/40 $129,380.07 $7,762.80 15.45833171
6/24/41 $137,142.87 $8,228.57 14.58333180
12/23/41 $145,371.44 $8,722.29 13.75786019
Of course, assumptions can be changed in the chart, and if the 208-week moving average no longer rises 12% per year, then that percentage could be adjusted downwardly in order to attempt to be as realistic as feasible given the facts on the ground.
Many bitcoiners likely believe that BTC's price is going to appreciate way more than my chart projection shows in the next 20 years, and surely if the the 208-week moving average ends up moving up more quickly than the conservative projections, then those numbers could be plugged into the chart in order to make the chart more accurate with the passage of time, as well...
Many of us already likely realize that traditional financial systems tend to use something like 4% as their guidance for anticipated yearly price appreciation for various investments that could be made, so personally, I already believe that 12% per year is quite aggressive, and no way am I going to go along with a lot of the nonsense pie in the sky expectations that 100% or 200% per year BTC price appreciation can be anticipated or even sustainable in the long run.. even though surely I can accept those kinds of numbers as sometimes happening along the path of our bitcoin journey and then those higher numbers ending up pushing up the 208-week moving average much higher than 12% in any given year(s) which thereafter causes the springing off BTC price point for subsequent years to have to be titered up, as well.
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