Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

But anyway.... What you think about the price?? ... Do you think it will go up, down, sideways, (maybe back in time... ).... Eh?? ...          

I had to go back a few pages to find an appropriate individual but this comment was just too spot on to not post.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Elwar]

The best theory I have seen (which CSW sued the guy to take the post down so obviously he's above the target) is that Hal Finney was the brains behind Bitcoin using his genius brain to put together all of the pieces created by so many smart cypherpunks before him. He enlisted the help of Dave Kleinman for his expertise as well they were both suffering from the same life threatening disease. While Finney did most of the background work Dave took on the Satoshi character understanding the implications of what they were doing. He knew that he needed to be completely anonymous so he asked his friend Craig Wright for some pointers on how to hide his identity very well. He then took on the "public" persona of Satoshi and was the Satoshi that we all know. He set up the first few nodes while keeping anonymous, bringing in Finney's nodes early on as a non-anonymous node though they likely were working together on everything before that.

Finney and Kleinman eventually died. Craig Wright, knowing that Kleinman was Satoshi tried desperately to get Kleinman's computers and USB drives from his family after his death. Also, it would make sense that CSW knew who Satoshi was otherwise he would not be so willing to come out and claim that he is Satoshi. The real Satoshi could always prove him wrong otherwise. CSW also likely knew some specifics about how Kleinman stayed anonymous so he was able to put some pieces together to make it look like it was him all along.

CSW can try to sue me for posting this but good luck finding me.

... CSW and Kleinman are not nearly in Satoshi's league

... it's like comparing high school math teachers to Euler

I played the role of the public face for the first seastead. The engineer that built it is a literal rocket scientist. I only had to know enough about it to explain to the general population how it worked while he actually used his engineering knowledge to build it and come up with many future designs.

I know enough engineering as it was my major going into college before switching to computer science to be comfortable in explaining things but nowhere close to the detailed nuances that "seatoshi" is able to come up with in very little time.

I can imagine Kleinman and Finney had a similar dynamic.

[hisslyness]

The best theory I have seen (which CSW sued the guy to take the post down so obviously he's above the target) is that Hal Finney was the brains behind Bitcoin using his genius brain to put together all of the pieces created by so many smart cypherpunks before him. He enlisted the help of Dave Kleinman for his expertise as well they were both suffering from the same life threatening disease. While Finney did most of the background work Dave took on the Satoshi character understanding the implications of what they were doing. He knew that he needed to be completely anonymous so he asked his friend Craig Wright for some pointers on how to hide his identity very well. He then took on the "public" persona of Satoshi and was the Satoshi that we all know. He set up the first few nodes while keeping anonymous, bringing in Finney's nodes early on as a non-anonymous node though they likely were working together on everything before that.

Finney and Kleinman eventually died. Craig Wright, knowing that Kleinman was Satoshi tried desperately to get Kleinman's computers and USB drives from his family after his death. Also, it would make sense that CSW knew who Satoshi was otherwise he would not be so willing to come out and claim that he is Satoshi. The real Satoshi could always prove him wrong otherwise. CSW also likely knew some specifics about how Kleinman stayed anonymous so he was able to put some pieces together to make it look like it was him all along.

CSW can try to sue me for posting this but good luck finding me.

... CSW and Kleinman are not nearly in Satoshi's league

... it's like comparing high school math teachers to Euler

I played the role of the public face for the first seastead. The engineer that built it is a literal rocket scientist. I only had to know enough about it to explain to the general population how it worked while he actually used his engineering knowledge to build it and come up with many future designs.

I know enough engineering as it was my major going into college before switching to computer science to be comfortable in explaining things but nowhere close to the detailed nuances that "seatoshi" is able to come up with in very little time.

I can imagine Kleinman and Finney had a similar dynamic.

A while back when CSW was claiming to be Satoshi, i tried to track his location and whereabouts and compare it to Satoshi Bitcointalk Post. Based on what was generally available at the time, like he CV and other speaking tours etc... he was studying at some university in Australia.

Surely if we can put him elsewhere when Satoshi had posted something we can eliminate his as CSW once and for all. Maybe CC statements, toll accounts etc...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Someone who was here since 2011 has got to be a whale, maybe even a 'blue whale', unless they were into some "other" stuff early.
It figures.

You could be correct that there are a decent number of 2011-ish forum members who would be whales of some sort.. but gosh I hate to be assuming too much in that direction....

So, according to todays definition of whale, we might be able to 10x or 16x (which seems to be too presumptuous) our anticipations regarding where BTC might go each cycle, so  those of us who registered in 2014, would be considered having high likelihood of being whales in 2024, or it does not work like that?

We might need our little chart again, for reference sake.



Of course, over the years, the classifications of the fishes and amounts needed for each classification should be changing, no?  Do these categories still stand, or does someone want to tweak to make them more reflective of our current BTC price dynamics times?  In other words, is 1,000 BTC still required for entry-level whale status?

Still a crab oh well

I'm confused... I've seen it said over and over that you become a Whale (or at least "reach Fuck U Status) at 0.21BTC.

You cannot be serious, Copetech,.  Right?

Seems to me that currently the 0.21 BTC is a BTC accumulation level that is way more reachable than higher amounts.  Yeah, sure perhaps some day down the road 0.21BTC is going to bring you to whales status, and of course, the whale status of the chart may even be outdated, which was part of the reason that I was attempting to get guys to chime in with their perspectives in terms of updating such chart.

I had already seen some other charts in which the lower levels of BTC accumulation were divided more, but when I did a quickie google search a couple of days ago, all of the variations of charts were substantively something like the one that I posted.

I also doubt that it is accurate to merge the concept of whale status with fuck you status, because I believe that whale status implies abilities to move the BTC market (if wanting to do so) and fuck you status seems to just being able to reach a state in which working for money is no longer necessary and completely optional... or some variation of having more options of not having to work.

At this point, I am not sure about how much more elaboration is necessary because you seem to be jumbling a lot of points, and then coming out with a kind of gobbledy-gook assessment regarding what the goals of any forum members might be or how to reach various statuses within your own BTC accumulation.

Are you telling me now that my life's ambitions amounts to nothing more than a freezer burned popcorn shrimp???

Lies! All Lies! 

Even you know better than that, no, Copetech?  Today's shrimp could become tomorrow's whale, but of course, if you are higher within the categorizations, then surely you have better chances of becoming either a whale or reaching fuck you status.  I believe that way more people think about how to reach fuck you status, and probably ONLY the narcissist deranged fucks strive to become whales.  Of course, it is hard for me to really know because I have troubles spending all of my cashflow, so I do need to UP my game, but I also don't really want to create more work for myself, either.  Let's say for example that I wanted to buy a yacht or a plane.. There is work involved in that , no?  Not saying that my 0.21 BTC is currently sufficient, but just using that as an example of sometimes spending your fuck you status money can also be a challenge in terms of learning how to do it without causing too much work or psychological issues.

[aysg76]

LOL to all the newbs selling to the Bargain Boyz.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0HGtjBTysU

The weak hands always sell off to the the strong hands In the market.This is what happens always in this dips and panic selling is at number one which further worsen the situation.

The hodlers will get pay off soon after all the dips of this year are over.

[ImThour]

Alright, I see everyone here supporting Bitcoin till their death. I also love Bitcoin alot however what's wrong if someone sell their Bitcoin just to buy more in the dip?
Like I have seen people selling their Bitcoin at 50k just to buy at 28k converting it from 1 BTC to almost 1.8 BTC without spending a single buck.

[JayJuanGee]

The best theory I have seen (which CSW sued the guy to take the post down so obviously he's above the target) is that Hal Finney was the brains behind Bitcoin using his genius brain to put together all of the pieces created by so many smart cypherpunks before him. He enlisted the help of Dave Kleinman for his expertise as well they were both suffering from the same life threatening disease. While Finney did most of the background work Dave took on the Satoshi character understanding the implications of what they were doing. He knew that he needed to be completely anonymous so he asked his friend Craig Wright for some pointers on how to hide his identity very well. He then took on the "public" persona of Satoshi and was the Satoshi that we all know. He set up the first few nodes while keeping anonymous, bringing in Finney's nodes early on as a non-anonymous node though they likely were working together on everything before that.

Trying to maintain both a public and anonymous persona is ripe for error. The original Bitcoin release was quite small, and totally within the capabilities of a single skilled programmer. I believe Satoshi was a single individual and is not any now-known figure.

If CSW knew the real Satoshi, it would be within reason that CSW would have at least been a real early miner and not just a speculator. Or he got some coins early for his ideas on how to be anon...

About the only thing that made sense from CSW before bitcoin was his work on scrubbing data from hard drives.

If CSW had really known about bitcoin in 2008 or 2009, he should have some 1k to 10k BTC just from mining or buying cheap. If he does not, then that's just foolishness on his part. I think he did not really know about bitcoin until maybe a little before he became publicly known, so about 2014-2015-ish? And he'd have maybe 1 to 10 BTC from buying it around that time with pocket change.

Anyone who has 1k to 10k BTC today who is not Elon or Saylor would be wise to remain quiet about their holdings.

Of course, plenty of OG bitcoiners don't have 1k today even if they knew about bitcoin in 2012 or 2011. Because reasons.

Exactly!!!!!

I don't know why people want to ascribe that diptwat CSW much, if any, meaningful involvement into BTC before he showed up on the bitcoin scene in 2015 or whenever it was, which was way later than he proclaims it to be....  and he had just been making shit up ever since and perhaps going back to try to doctor history to make it appear that he had involvement and the evidence is not there.  Like you say, Dabs otherwise, just the mere fact that he was in the game earlier would have caused him to be smarter about bitcoin in a variety of ways  (including being demostrateable by concrete behaviors)... ..
 
And, yeah it is really difficult to ascribe a certain number of coins to anyone (OG) merely based on when they first got involved in BTC... that's for sure...   In other words, we likely need quite a bit more than a date started to make any kinds of reasonable and meaningful inferences.

[edited out]

The only homogenous train of thought there should be allowed for each person that pertains to having a personality, enforcing it and upholding it.    

In theory, that makes lots of senses as a coherent thought.  

F^ck that...     ... The world is too fake and f-ed up to make a difference or to matter anymore anyway.

But anyway.... What you think about the price?? ... Do you think it will go up, down, sideways, (maybe back in time... ).... Eh?? ...          

Don't you need to put a timeframe on your question?  How about defining UP or down, too?

I will attempt to do it for you.  We will call up as above $46k, down as below $25k and sideways as "you know"  between the up and down, you dumb fuck.

I am just ballpark guessing... I don't really know that much, and sure, I could change my ballpark guess by tomorrow, so it is not exactly solid to get my feelings at this particular spontaneous moment.

1) in the next month: up 33.3575%, down 33.3%, sideways 33.3425%

2) in the next 6 months: up 62.5%, down 16%, sideways 21.5%

3) in the next 18 months: up 76.5%,  down 10.5%, sideways 13%

[El duderino_]

LOL to all the newbs selling to the Bargain Boyz.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0HGtjBTysU

The weak hands always sell off to the the strong hands In the market.This is what happens always in this dips and panic selling is at number one which further worsen the situation.

The hodlers will get pay off soon after all the dips of this year are over.

Or some Legendaries through every DIP

[OutOfMemory]

chartbuddy explained a couple of dozen pages before.
Just view his profile, see the latest posts and scroll/click to the relevant one, i estimate it's between one or three week(s) old, to date.

The exact link to the post will be appreciated and will save a lot of time for me.  

Yeah, sorry, i would have done so already, if i wouldn't have been in a hurry  
There's a link named "Explanation" below each autogenerated chart, which links to the posting i was loosely referring to.

Alright, I see everyone here supporting Bitcoin till their death. I also love Bitcoin alot however what's wrong if someone sell their Bitcoin just to buy more in the dip?
Like I have seen people selling their Bitcoin at 50k just to buy at 28k converting it from 1 BTC to almost 1.8 BTC without spending a single buck.

Nah, not everyone, we've got some erratic black sheep here from time to time as well.
The problem in selling the top and buying the dip is: How do you know when you're on the top, and how do you know you're near the bottom of the dip?
You might as well burn some money following this "strategy", but i'd personally recommend buying dips and hodl, which is called "lump sum", afaik,

[Hueristic]

Alright, I see everyone here supporting Bitcoin till their death. I also love Bitcoin alot however what's wrong if someone sell their Bitcoin just to buy more in the dip?
Like I have seen people selling their Bitcoin at 50k just to buy at 28k converting it from 1 BTC to almost 1.8 BTC without spending a single buck.

Nothing wrong with that until you call the top wrong once and become a no-coiner.

[OutOfMemory]

Alright, I see everyone here supporting Bitcoin till their death. I also love Bitcoin alot however what's wrong if someone sell their Bitcoin just to buy more in the dip?
Like I have seen people selling their Bitcoin at 50k just to buy at 28k converting it from 1 BTC to almost 1.8 BTC without spending a single buck.

Nothing wrong with that until you call the top wrong once and become a no-coiner.

Damn right.
Or at least a low-coiner.

EDIT: which means having a lower amount of bitcoin than before the dip/top.

[xhomerx10]

Alright, I see everyone here supporting Bitcoin till their death. I also love Bitcoin alot however what's wrong if someone sell their Bitcoin just to buy more in the dip?
Like I have seen people selling their Bitcoin at 50k just to buy at 28k converting it from 1 BTC to almost 1.8 BTC without spending a single buck.

Your method is not without risk and it also comes with a tax liability.  Hodlers unaffected.

[JayJuanGee]

Blocks seem to have slowed down a little more over the last day.

Apparently, 70% of Chinese miners had shutdown by about the 23rd, and by the end of the month that number would be 90%. End of the month right now so might be holding true. We definitely need that difficult change though, good thing transactions are majorly down otherwise there would be a big traffic jam.

I bet the dollar signs in Phil's eyes are spinning right about now with this circa 25% difficulty decrease we are looking at.

My Chinese miner info comes from the following

https://twitter.com/SinoCrypto/status/1407524185228840965

Wow.. yeah. those already set up with equipment are probably getting great windfalls out of how this whole situation is unfolding, so far.  Of course, there are some uncertainties involved in regards to whether the facts are true, and surely people are looking out for if games are being played which also might bring some relief to the difficulty level downgrade at this point projected to come on this upcoming Thursday or perhaps Friday if the hashing power continues to go down in a kind of seemingly cascading way.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[becoin]

I also love Bitcoin alot however what's wrong if someone sell their Bitcoin just to buy more in the dip?

If you succeed to buy more in the deep, that is okay. However, if bitcoin goes the other way and you become fiat bag-holder chances are very high you become bitcoin hater.

[Paashaas]

Glad Netherlands is out of the tournament they deserved it. I hope they will ditch the coach asap before next year's world cup in Qatar.

Next game Belgium vs Portugal. Go Belgium!

[AlcoHoDL]

Alright, I see everyone here supporting Bitcoin till their death. I also love Bitcoin alot however what's wrong if someone sell their Bitcoin just to buy more in the dip?

Like I have seen people selling their Bitcoin at 50k just to buy at 28k converting it from 1 BTC to almost 1.8 BTC without spending a single buck.

That's exactly the recipe for losing your BTC! I've seen many HoDLers become nocoiners and/or Bitcoin haters because of this. It's easy to say "sell high, then buy low", until one time you sell high and realize your high was the new low.

Buy whenever you can.
Sell only when you must.
HoDL.

Simple, works every time.

[JayJuanGee]

Prepair for total doom.

One major sell-off shaking out the weakest hands on Earth.

I'm watching, and sure, current rate sucks, but look at the resistance around 30k, that's bullish to me.

Hope i'm wrong. Potential bottom touched serval times now but if it beaks...



Diamond Hands will prevail.

I am no technical expert by any means... but the more tests on resistance...  the less it can be expected to hold.

It does not look like we are done.  It's kind of hard to fathom for me honestly.

You seem to be referring to support, no?

Support is on the way down, and resistance is on the way up.  Or am I missing something regarding what you seem to be saying?

Blocks seem to have slowed down a little more over the last day.

Apparently, 70% of Chinese miners had shutdown by about the 23rd, and by the end of the month that number would be 90%. End of the month right now so might be holding true. We definitely need that difficult change though, good thing transactions are majorly down otherwise there would be a big traffic jam.

I bet the dollar signs in Phil's eyes are spinning right about now with this circa 25% difficulty decrease we are looking at.

My Chinese miner info comes from the following

https://twitter.com/SinoCrypto/status/1407524185228840965

Counting the blocks from the last 12 hours and we are running at 72 blocks a day right now, that has to be the slowest the network has been. Half what we should be at. Difficulty drop might be closer to 30% when it happens.

Hash rate now at 89EH/s

At this rate I think it will be a week till this epoch is over.

I had heard that there was something in the code that caused a maximum drop of 25% per difficulty period... I am trying to remember where I heard that.. on a podcast with someone familiar with the code, I believe.  So, with 22% to 24% drop in difficulty projected as I type, we are getting close to a 25% downward adjustment right now.. but still about 4 days or more to go.