So I saw this image and it hit me hard and really wanted to share with you guys
Source: Bitcoin.allBut I am little bit confused which dip she might be talking about?
.The cheese garlic one or the real one
That's the million dollar question...
how much dip is enough dip, and what should be my plan to deal with such seemingly ongoing (and never-ending) dippenings?
We need to have these dips turned into opportunity if we have trust on Bitcoin and invest another extra portion of savings into Bitcoin on these dips and stay calm.
Let's say that if you already had a plan in place between February and May when BTC prices were largely supra $50k, I don't know if there would be any necessity to add value because your already existing plan should have already covered what you would do if the BTC prices were to go down and to stay down for 6 weeks and counting; however, I do believe that quite a few people were likely thrown off by a "so far" 56% BTC price correction in the midst of what was supposed to be a bull market.
So there might be some people who are having to revise their plans based on such somewhat shocking circumstances, but I would not necessarily suggest that creates a need to add value but maybe to tweak the plan, depending on if a lot of the buying wadd was blown earlier than expected with the expectation that BTC prices were not going to drop below certain levels (such as 30% or 40%) - which ended up NOT happening.
Of course some people will have their regular cashflows coming in over the about 6 weeks that had passed since we first were touching upon $50k and subsequently dropped below it. Whether that is adding more cash or just continuing to follow a kind of DCA plan might be two different questions.. and whether the extent of the dip inspires more buying or not, might concern if more dip is expected.. which surely is not assured, even though we are testing $30k again as I type.
Although the funny and pressure part is that it keeps on dipping afterwards but we need to realise that it will go up as soon as Retail and institutional support is forwarded to the market which maybe soon in say next 1-2 month.
Of course an aspect of BTC's price performance remains momentum driven, so sometimes it can take a bit of time to reverse momentum, so your projection of 1-2 months does not seem unrealistic if the bottom of $28,600 is already in but if we end up getting more BTC price movement below $28,600 without any kind of strong bounce back, then that just provides more justifications to keep attempting to test that $28,600 price point to make sure that it is the bottom or not.
Till then we need to relax say stay away from regular market reactions and FOMO which will help us to not worry much if we have already invested to our full extent into Bitcoin.
Sure, there is some value to dealing with the facts that are in front of us, so if anyone investing in BTC has a financial plan in place, then their psychology will be stronger to deal with where we are at and what might come. People who change their plans based on the market, might have periods of uncertainty, unrest and more difficulties to stay relaxed unless their plan change makes for more certainty.. maybe to be prepared for either BTC price direction? I suppose that we can change our plans to make sure that we are prepared for either price direction at any time, so that way we do not become too much stressed out by the price moving in a direction that was contrary to our preparations.
We need to think that it's not the beginning of the end of the market but the end of bearish trend and beginning of bull run soon.
I don't think about it like that.
Largely, I have considered that we have been in a bull run since about April 2019 and we have had some corrections along the way, including our current one that is quite large.
Sure people are going to have their different assessments of where we are at, and I personally believe that it is too early to proclaim this as a bear market - even if it could persist for so long or correct low enough to actually be considered a bear market.
In other words, it seems way too exaggerated and inaccurate to be switching back and forth in whether to characterize a market as a bear market, and surely trend reversals do end up happening, and we do end up going into bear markets but it we cannot really know if we are in such bear market from merely staggering for 6 weeks below $50k.. especially since the BTC price came up from $10k in early September to $64,895 in mid-April, so having a 6.5x price appreciation and a 56% price correction still keeps us around 3x up from where we were in early September.. 9 months ago.
Another thing is that this is BTC, so if people are trying to throw out their bullshit premature proclamations of "bear market" then they may well not be understanding that bitcoin is a kind of a unique asset, so they might well end up getting fucked up the ass if they are failing and refusing to account for the more convincing and current BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.
I am surely not trying to be stubborn or pie in the sky in terms of proclaiming bull market or bear market because I personally give few shits in terms of trying to fight that the BTC price is going to do what it is going to do based on a large number of factors.. so in that sense, each of us just rolls with the punches, so if the facts start to establish that $64,895 has been our local top and we are not going to end up with a kind of 2013 pattern of a double top, then I will concede that we are in a bear market.
By the way, mentioning 2013, surely that BTC price performance pattern played out differently from the one that we are experiencing right now, so we cannot necessarily expect each pattern to play out with any kind of exactness to some other pattern because quite a few variables can change in 8 years. Nonetheless, when we look back at 2013, we should be able to appreciate and recognize that we had a bull market with a long correction period (of about 5 months) within it. I don't think it would be correct to characterize 2013 as going into a bull market up until April then having a bear market until September and then going into another bull market. That is just a dumbass way of characterizing what happened in 2013, if anyone wants to make that kind of a switching back and forth proclamation regarding whether we were in a bear market or a bull market at that time.
It will not keep dipping to some serious levels and will eventually rise and we need to wait until that point is achieved.
Sure, if we are in a bull market, then this statement is correct. If we end up being in a bear market currently then your statement is not correct. Like I said, I personally still believe that we are in a bullmarket, but I still express my thinking in terms of probabilities rather than saying that something "will" or "will not" happen.
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