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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26406777 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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June 27, 2021, 10:01:26 PM


Explanation
UnDerDoG81
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June 27, 2021, 10:11:55 PM

Green dildooo
cAPSLOCK
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June 27, 2021, 10:13:13 PM

Green dildooo
Oh how I would love to see this turn into a squeeze. Smiley  But, i do not think it will... Still fingers crossed.
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June 27, 2021, 10:22:43 PM



[edited out]

The only homogenous train of thought there should be allowed for each person that pertains to having a personality, enforcing it and upholding it.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

In theory, that makes lots of senses as a coherent thought.   Wink



F^ck that...  Cheesy  Cheesy ... The world is too fake and f-ed up to make a difference or to matter anymore anyway. Smiley

But anyway.... What you think about the price?? Tongue ... Do you think it will go up, down, sideways, (maybe back in time... Cheesy Cheesy ).... Eh?? Tongue Tongue ...  Huh  Cool  Shocked  Roll Eyes  Grin

Don't you need to put a timeframe on your question?  How about defining UP or down, too?

I will attempt to do it for you.  We will call up as above $46k, down as below $25k and sideways as "you know"  between the up and down, you dumb fuck.

I am just ballpark guessing... I don't really know that much, and sure, I could change my ballpark guess by tomorrow, so it is not exactly solid to get my feelings at this particular spontaneous moment.

1) in the next month: up 33.3575%, down 33.3%, sideways 33.3425%

2) in the next 6 months: up 62.5%, down 16%, sideways 21.5%

3) in the next 18 months: up 76.5%,  down 10.5%, sideways 13%


I don't want to jinx it. Cuz I kept tripping balls last time $27-29K and look what happened. Smiley ... But... lets just say that $800-900K per BTCiTcoin could be a thing in the next 12 months. Smiley (But I'm not 100% sure I believe that... Tongue ) ... Cheesy Cheesy
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June 27, 2021, 10:23:49 PM

Love a little pump
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June 27, 2021, 10:27:30 PM

Actually.. looking at all the charts I can find it looks like all that short interest is fleeing.  Interesting...
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June 27, 2021, 10:28:42 PM

Love a little pump

I see u guys got new hats from your old jobs. Cheesy Cheesy

I'm thinking about to build some Jet Jetsons type of McDonalds Up! Up! Up! ... in the air with the BTCiTcoin price Up! Up! Up! .. in space! Cheesy Cheesy






^ They looking at the BTCiTcoin price! Cheesy Cheesy  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes
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June 27, 2021, 11:01:26 PM


Explanation
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June 27, 2021, 11:18:09 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (5), JayJuanGee (2), Arriemoller (1), nanobtc (1), Copetech (1)

"It's going up forever, Laura!" and the futility of Bitcoin day-trading

[This started as a one-paragraph reply to one of Jay's posts, but it grew uncontrollably, so I decided to post it on its own.]

As with any non-deterministic variable, Bitcoin price is volatile. And volatility means ups and downs. What many people fail to realize is that these short-term ups and downs are actually noise. Maybe not white noise, it's almost always tainted by various events like Elon's tweets, China's bans, futures' expiry dates and a million other things, but it's still essentially noise. And noise is a random process (i.e., a "roll of a dice" case, albeit a loaded dice at times). Would anyone in their right mind bet their Bitcoin stash on the roll of a dice? Would that really be a viable long-term winning strategy?

Short-term Bitcoin price action is noise (i.e., unpredictable in any practical sense), and yet there are day-traders ("daytarders", as I like to call them), who try to predict short-term price movement using all sorts of fancy tools and techniques, hoping to catch the market and make a profit. To me, it all feels like those mad "scientists", usually of poor theoretical scientific background, desperately trying to build a perpetual motion machine by using elaborate, complex contraptions, while the laws of thermodynamics explicitly state that this is not possible. To me, consistently profitable Bitcoin day-trading is almost as futile as trying to build a perpetual motion machine.

But the big question is this: why worry about the short-term volatility, when we can predict the long-term trend with pretty good accuracy? Long-term price action is much less noise and much more math and science, as has been repeatedly pointed out by Bitcoin advocates such as Andreas Antonopoulos, and as can be clearly seen by studying the protocol itself. Saylor has been screaming about it for some time now, I wonder how many understand him. Money is energy. Monetary energy. The laws of thermodynamics state that energy is conserved. You cannot have a working system when you have an energy leak. And what do banks of the fiat system do? They introduce leaks into their own monetary system "by design" (they call it inflation), and subsequently dilute their monetary units (fiat currencies) by having their money printers go brrrrrrrrrr... That's some "perpetual money machine" to the untrained eye, except that there's nothing perpetual about it. It's actually dissipative, repeatedly diluting and dissipating our wealth into piles of fiat paper money that are worth less and less each day goes by. This is the laws of thermodynamics in action, proving once more that "there is no free lunch" in the universe.

Bitcoin is the one and only monetary network in the history of mankind, which respects the laws of thermodynamics, as they pertain to monetary energy. But wait! Has this all become too complex? Is there too much math & science involved? Is there some complex equation we should all learn and understand? How about 1 BTC = 1 BTC? Is this simple enough? This, and the fact that there will only be at most 21,000,000 BTC in existence, ever. An equation and an upper bound -- these are the only two things necessary to predict the future behavior of this system. This is possible because it is a thermodynamically closed system. This has nothing to do with volatility, but with the long-term trend. It's like filtering out the noise and observing the resulting smooth, clean, upward curve. This is what the moving-average indicators do, which I consider about the only meaningful metrics when it comes to Bitcoin trend analysis.

As Saylor puts it: "It's a gift. Once in a thousand years do you actually see the invention of a fundamentally new thing, this is our once in a thousand years opportunity. You get to buy into it early, what would it be like if you owned 10% of all the electricity that's ever going to be pumped, or what if you could buy 1% of all the running water that's ever going to be pumped? That's what this is, it's 1% of all the fire that's ever going to be lit. You have a chance to buy a percentage of the future. Seems like a no-brainer to me."

"It's going up forever, Laura!" That's the only thing anyone really needs to know about Bitcoin.
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June 27, 2021, 11:40:00 PM
Merited by Copetech (1)

Just imagine how it will feel when Bitcoin breaks $100k. And then $200k. And then $500k. And then $1M. And then...

Don't sell your corn, fools.
Don't go against the new law:
Bitcoindynamics!

#engineerscornhaiku


Don't do it** fools.






**sell too many corns too soon, and never sell all ur corns, retard.

[ edited out]

ROFLMAO 🤪

YES I was absolutely Joking! ( but thanks for playingalong!
International BBS forums bring out the best of my naturally dry sense of humor... or maybe just confuses people, I dunno, but I laughed!

No problem with joking, but the truth of the matter is that hardly anyone here knows you, and therefore the likelihood of confusion becomes pretty damned high - and furthermore, being in the middle of a war or the greatest wealth transfer in history is no laughing matter, even if from time to time we can make some jokes along the way that are not as likely to be misunderstood.


*page break*
So I've been pondering a new little angle on the LumpSum/DCA/Dippety-Doo-Dah strategy and wanted to see what others think of my ponderances...
(And NO it doesn't involve shitcoins, so put the high-horse away for now)

Fair enough.. glad you are not bringing shitcoins in here any more than necessary because they tend to cause mass headache events in these here parts, kind of like a virus.

So, we take our expected available investment capital & split it into 3 piles blah, blah, blah... then we take the DCA pile and (for reasons of explanation) let's say split it into 52 weekly buys. But rather than making the weekly DCA blind market price buys, take a minute each week to analyze the market using whatever tools we've learned to make a solid educated guess on what the "bottom" is gonna be that week and set a Stop/Limit buy at that amount.

Everything sounds good until you get to mentioning the stop... From my perspective, you are overly complicating matters by fucking around with stop limit bullshit because we see it so many times that stop limits are sought out for liquidation and then after you are force sold, the price goes shooting up - never coming back, or at least not coming back in a time frame that allows you to meaningfully play the up and down waves to the extent that they might be hypothesized in advance.

In other words, let's say that you hit your waves 75% of the time, but 25% you do not.  Probably you will end up wasting your time at least and losing all your money at worse.

If your timeline is 10 years or more (and you even said that your timeline is 25-35 years) you don't need to be fucking around.  Just stack your sats and don't play around with bullshit. (yeah sure, I know that you are going to do what you are going to do, but this thread is public, so I am not just directing this answer at your seemingly gambling inclinations).



Now here's the kicker, once that order is placed, it's placed! Self Discipline! No take backs! Now as we're going along, if we find a point where our expected DCA'd low for the week already has a Stop/Limit order with-in $1k we choose which one we want to keep, and place the other $1k higher, but if $1k higher is higher than current market or already taken we place it $1k lower. Continue this alternating Hi//Low until we find the first available Stop/Limit placement.

If I understand you correctly, you are just fucking around with the new money that comes in, so it is a relatively small amount of your yearly expected investment amount 1/52... so sure, you could run such an experiment for a while and try to figure out if you have a tendency to be able to perform better than vanilla DCAing.  

I will admit that when I was earlier in my BTC accumulation stage, I did used to give my lil selfie a weekly allowance, and that did last for about a year on a regular basis and more sporadically in the next year or so.  So, even if I did not play around with stop losses - because I don't really believe in them, but I did try to time some or all of my weekly allowance for dips, to the extent that I had any feelings about how each week would go once my allowance period started.  

So, of course, I am way more inclined to believe that you do not need all that bullshit attempts at trying to stack more sats when there is a system that works quite well already, and since bitcoin is designed to pump forever, you are already in an asymmetric as fuck bet, and way ahead of regular peeps who are likely to be coming into bitcoin in the next few BTC cycles with BTC prices relatively quite a bit higher than they are at any point in this particular cycle.. so fucking around with the cycle may end up causing you to invest less. but sure.. experiment with it if you feel that you need to see if you can beat the market with your weekly allowance for the next 52 weeks or however long you continue to employ that strategy.. and sure if your strategy is successful, you can extend it, and maybe you will be ready to share some knowledge with other guys here .. so long as you come up with something that is NOT too overly complicated.  For sure, it is difficult as fuck to just get guys to figure out their own finances and attempt to employ the most basic of strategies, so if you are adding additional complexity, then you surely might be advantaged by that if you really are able to calculate both what you are doing and being honest with yourself in terms of whether you are actually beating a more basic DCAing strategy that is already proven as pretty damned solid and not too likely to devolve into any thing less solid any time soon, especially for guys with a decently long investment time horizon.

Now as time goes on, we should be able to use this experience to improve on our weekly analytical skills so our success rate should improve, but invariably there will likely be a number of Stop/Limit orders on the table where BTC's uppity got away from us...

I agree.. you should be able to both learn from your system and adjust your amounts or stop loss placements in order to attempt to account for if you are getting better or not... and surely, it could take a whole cycle to figure out if you are good in both a bear market and a bull market and if you really have any clue figuring out which one you might be in and if the BTC price moves in directions that you predict more than it moves against you.. and sure there are probably also ways that you could have a 20% or 30% success rate but still be profitable overall and even beating the DCA approach, if you were to want to use that as a cross-reference.

but the orders were placed and so they stay! Because as we all know, every 4 year cycle, the parabolic downing returns! But now, this is a point of celebration! Because all those low-balled S/L's between the top and the bottom of the crash get bought up at dippening prices! Then, when all your learned Sciences & Maths tell you that the bottom is in and the long weary crypto winter has begun, it's again time for celebration,  because every S/L order that is left more than 30% below your current "bottom" price gets canceled all at once, and you use that new lump sum to buy at the current market price. The "new low" and the cycle starts again.

It sounds good in theory, or on paper, but you might not really know if you are able to do it without practicing, and surely how much value do you want to place in making these kinds of bets remains a discretionary matter.. and you surely would need to try to employ a certain level of humbleness and rational thought to what you are doing, especially the more complicated the system becomes.

*page break*

Now my thinking here is, if the goal is buy & HODL anywho,

Probably that should be the overall goal for anyone who considers himself/herself to be in BTC accumulation stage... which could last 10-20 years before reaching adequate and satisfactorily accumulation levels that you feel comfortable playing around..,. or experimenting.

the stop/limits that are missed and left on the exchange until the next crash are bought anyway, and you should be increasing your odds of getting the best price with each week's analysis... so over time, your tools and skillz should always be improving.

I agree that in theory that sounds doable.. so maybe it will work for you since you seem to be more than willing to put in the time, attempts at learning, tweakengings along the way and ongoing analysis.  

Part of the benefits of DCA is that not too much efforts need to be put into it, at least relative to the kind of practices that you are suggesting to employ, so maybe even some system like your might appeal only to 1/10 personas at best, but I am thinking that your system would be have even a lower appeal level than that amongst the regular population - because the overwhelming vast majority of peeps have difficulties figuring out even how much free cashflow that they have on a regular basis and do not tend to project their cashflow out for more than a month or two, so lots of normies (and even otherwise very smart people who have their smarts in other areas/specialties) end up scrambling because they are not really inclined to be spending a lot of time looking at charts and trying to strategize (and if they do, they do not tend to be very good at it at all, even with quite a bit of practicing).

And if this strategy spreads, and a bunch of peeps start doing it, it should serve to dampen parabolic Downward volatility as well as adding a booster shot to each extreme bottom.

I agree that if you are able to establish a system that works and is better than simple DCA'ing and you are able to share or communicate your strategies clearly in ways that people understand, then more mass following of such a system could bring down volatility - especially if you can figure out ways to punish the stop loss hunters who tend to get rewarded for punishing a bunch of folks who believe that they are smarter than more simple vanilla DCA buy, accumulate and HODL practices.

Now, of course, this does put a bit of faith in the exchange, and I know Mt. Gox nightmares abound. But the exchange I'm using is a massive US based, publicly traded, insured company, and regardless of the current condition of our shamwow government, I have to expect that severe regulatory pressure will prevent any cut & run tendency would be minimized, and I will certainly keep my coins & keys transferred to a private wallet every time the value reaches my predefined amount that justifies the transaction costs and exposure limitations. And I have to think the documented Fiat amounts would be much easier to recover than an amount of BTC that has no other documentation outside of the exchange itself.

Of course, exchange risks vary, so not sure if you can account for all of the exchange risks, but sure you can engage in various mitigating efforts and sometimes you can use a couple exchanges, too.  Sometimes I will run into one or two exchanges having "short term" difficulties, but other exchanges NOT having such "difficulties", and sometimes such "difficulties can screw you out of keeping your management of your portfolio balanced in a way that you would like... and sometimes you might not even realize some of the level of information sharing that one exchange might engage in versus another one, even though these days you probably should be assuming that your exchange information is being shared in ways that is not really preferable to you.

BUT, I'm a Newbie still and just pondering this, so please feel free to shoot as many holes in it as possible... please?

I don't have any problems with practicing and trying to figure things out, and surely we sometimes see that some guys get burnt really bad because they seem to be employing good practices, but then they end up devolving into too much gambling or just experiencing some kind of meltdown that goes beyond what should have happened.. because we already know that bitcoin overshoots BIGGEDly and it is difficult to establish a sustainable system that can last even a whole cycle.. so even if some of us guys might give you suggestions in one direction or another, ultimately you have to figure out what kind of balancing works for you both financially and psychology and it might end UP not matching any other guy here.. but who cares, as long as it works for you, then that will be the main point...

TLDR: none of us  (royal us, I suppose?) here gives any shits about uie-pooie more than uie-pooie gives shits about ur lil selfie, amiNOTrite?
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June 28, 2021, 12:01:36 AM


Explanation
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June 28, 2021, 12:37:20 AM

So not to sound bearish (I'm forever a permabull ya'know),

Sure, of course, if you spin your history, you can proclaim that you are a "permabull," but from my perspective, you seem to be redefining what "permabull" means.  In udder words, I remember some pretty depressing ass posts coming out of your avatar, historically speaking.. especially when had been getting on some of those quasi-meaningless numerology/manipulation tangents.. as if the market would not work matters out sooner, or later, which it did.. but not if some of us might have attempted to follow the implications of your supposed "permabull" doom and gloom nonsense.


Whatever... it's a free country...

You can spin the essence of your supposed "permabulledness" how ever you would like..

Mums the word.  Wink

Maybe.


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


but with the hash rate retarget (back to 6/2020 levels) looming, I'm guessing bear whales are going to be FUDing and gunning for a massive "scare the absolute shit out of the n00bs and make them puke their guts out" big dump moment.


Of course.  Why not?  they gotta try to squeeze as much as they can out of this opportunity while they still can.  I don't see anything bearish about the fact that they are going to try, even if there could be some unreasonable bearishness to presume that they are going to be successful.

If it happens, I'm sure it'll look scary, like a big capitulation, but we all know it will eventually recover. For those want to add to their long positions, it'll be a gift from the Bitcoin godz.

The MSM will of course have a field day with the news. I expect to see the word "Plunge" in a lot of Bitcoin headlines.  Roll Eyes

What do you guys think?

#HODLERSUNAFFECTED

I agree with this conclusory (or the punchline) part of your assessment #nohomo.




[edited out]

The only homogenous train of thought there should be allowed for each person that pertains to having a personality, enforcing it and upholding it.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

In theory, that makes lots of senses as a coherent thought.   Wink

F^ck that...  Cheesy  Cheesy ... The world is too fake and f-ed up to make a difference or to matter anymore anyway. Smiley

But anyway.... What you think about the price?? Tongue ... Do you think it will go up, down, sideways, (maybe back in time... Cheesy Cheesy ).... Eh?? Tongue Tongue ...  Huh  Cool  Shocked  Roll Eyes  Grin

Don't you need to put a timeframe on your question?  How about defining UP or down, too?

I will attempt to do it for you.  We will call up as above $46k, down as below $25k and sideways as "you know"  between the up and down, you dumb fuck.

I am just ballpark guessing... I don't really know that much, and sure, I could change my ballpark guess by tomorrow, so it is not exactly solid to get my feelings at this particular spontaneous moment.

1) in the next month: up 33.3575%, down 33.3%, sideways 33.3425%

2) in the next 6 months: up 62.5%, down 16%, sideways 21.5%

3) in the next 18 months: up 76.5%,  down 10.5%, sideways 13%


I don't want to jinx it. Cuz I kept tripping balls last time $27-29K and look what happened. Smiley ... But... lets just say that $800-900K per BTCiTcoin could be a thing in the next 12 months. Smiley (But I'm not 100% sure I believe that... Tongue ) ... Cheesy Cheesy

For sure, cannot take you seriously, diptwat.. aka Save the RF.  Why do you always have to take matters to the dumbest of extremes?  Don't you have any self-control at all?

And, did I even have a 12-month prediction in my response?  Nope.  You could at least attempt to be responsive to  basic points that are made.

For anyone attempting to somewhat stay tethered to some kind of reality, let's just stick with a 18 month or sooner timeline in order to attempt to mostly capture outlying scenarios of an exponential price rise that ends up getting drug out for longer than expected.

And, let's stick with bull scenarios, too.  So, sure, in an 18month timeline (from now), probably a more conservative of UPpity scenarios would be $100k to $150k as the top at some point.

A mid-range more bullish (and of course less likely scenario the higher we go up) would be $150k to $450k as the top at some point.

The most bullish of scenarios would include your $900k, and probably be $450k to $1.5million as the top at some point.

I am not even sure that I would be comfortable saying that the middle is most likely because probably the more conservative the more likely, but in any event still difficult to assign exact numbers to any of them.. even if we might say the lowest range has around a 30% or more chance (or something like that?), the middle range has about a  20% chance, and the most bullish range has less than a 10% chance..

I am kind of SOMAing this, but still since this is a public thread, just trying to give provide some kind of a more realistic attempted outline of reality to work with rather than the ongoing gibberish that you tend to spit out on a regular basis, Save the RF.

Of course, the playing out of any of the above bullish scenarios ends up being quite world-changing, even the most conservative of them.. so whether any of them happen or not, on a personal level people should at least attempt to be somewhat prepared for any of them happening, if if the odds are not exactly seeming to be high until it actually happens, then the odds become 100%...

So the odds of being here in the mid-$30ks in 2014 were probably seeming to be in a less than 3% probabilities arena, but now that we are actually here in reality, we have discovered that a 3% probability in 2014 turned into 100% today... once it happened, and those of us who prepared our lil selfies for such possibility (no matter what odds we assigned), just in case, have profited quite disproportionately compared to those who did not prepare their lil selfies.. but that is partly how wealth redistribution could end up working out in a world with bitcoin.. especially if any of us has some luck and follow through... and sure luck probably is more likely to happen when we have some follow through, too.. seems to me.
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June 28, 2021, 01:01:26 AM


Explanation
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June 28, 2021, 01:04:23 AM
Last edit: June 28, 2021, 01:28:08 AM by JayJuanGee

Actually.. looking at all the charts I can find it looks like all that short interest is fleeing.  Interesting...

Hahahahaha

Funny how that works.


I am shocked.


Absolutely shocked.

 Shocked Shocked Shocked


.......but it grew uncontrollably, so I decided to post it on its own.

hahahahaha

Join the club.

.,.. and nice post, AlcoHoDL.
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June 28, 2021, 01:51:45 AM

I set my alarm at 1001 and at 1101 just to fuck with chart buddy.

No doubles for buddy.

Btw proundhon is solid for the 10 day 35k prediction. at the moment at least.

oh hashrate dropping I am looking at 25% btc earnings gain.

at least in the 1 btc = 1 btc world 🌎

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June 28, 2021, 01:57:34 AM

Surely if we can put him elsewhere when Satoshi had posted something we can eliminate his as CSW once and for all. Maybe CC statements, toll accounts etc...

The "true believers" ain't gonna give it up and I have no inclination to try to disabuse them of their delusions.
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June 28, 2021, 02:01:26 AM


Explanation
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June 28, 2021, 02:02:10 AM

buddy blocker😊
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June 28, 2021, 02:03:00 AM

That's exactly the recipe for losing your BTC! I've seen many HoDLers become nocoiners and/or Bitcoin haters because of this. It's easy to say "sell high, then buy low", until one time you sell high and realize your high was the new low.

There's also the risk of coins on an exchange. Not as bad as it once was but still a very real risk.
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June 28, 2021, 02:28:06 AM
Merited by nanobtc (1)

Buy whenever you can.
Sell only when you must.

It's amazing how many people fail to grasp this simple truth.

Trading is a sucker's game.
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