Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sirazimuth]

....



first...

.... but I'm working nights now .....

I'm jealous bro. My sleeping-in days and higher payrate ended this past May.

 I'd rather be relaxing at home for less money in this heat but at least I can sneak outside to cool off when working nights.  I'm pretty sure this will be my last summer at the higher payrate

I also miss having the whole shop to myself and making medallions on night shift, although I have to sadly admit, this last one didn't age too well....

[1714785103]

1714785103

[1714785103]

1714785103

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Buddy Blocker

When $40,000 FFS 

[JayJuanGee]

If government clears out all the FUD and make it a clean way, I am sure this value of investment will be x10 the current investment in Crypto.

Looks like nearly pure gobbledy gook to me, is there any connection with the topic of this thread?  Not even a link to verify if the underlying might relate to this thread, perhaps?

i have kept as much as 3 years worth at the current burn rate (that burn rate does not include traditional regular income from ETF etc) on fiat in there. plus the regular burn rate is in large part covered my my tradition stuff.. 401s, etf, stocks, so even if btc crated tomorrow i *should* bbe set.

The "standard" that is often recommended is 3 to 6 months of current burn rate. For your fiat or cash emergency fund.

Interesting that you have 3 years. Although I have read about one traditional early retiree (or maybe he isn't retired yet), that claims he has 7 years worth as his emergency fund. I think that is too much, but hey, that's his comfort and safety level, and good on him for that.

Considering the bitcoin cycles, I'd say 3 years is good, 4 years might be better, but beyond that might be wasting your money unless you have more than you really need.

I mean, if that guy loses all income for 7 years, he should be good, and still have his capital or other investments intact.

1st my wife and i are retired so that may change ones definition of "emergency." i retired many years earlier than even my most optimistic goal. it allowed my wife to take an early one too but the years early for her were not as much as mine due to reasons. anyway thank you bitcoint.

i wouldnt really mind 4 years of emergency money (ie separate from any saving account one may have, as i said emergency money is not used for TVs new computers toys etc. its there for, well, emergencies that could serious fuck up your future.

but i settled on three because i have enough passive income through traditional stuff that it takes a load off what i need in the emergency fund.

three years even in a bear market will allow some halfway decent price point to be waited for selling if i need to (yes less of course) as i would have plenty of time to sell what was needed before it gets really low (like a local bottom). being able to watch an 80% drop and just wait it out because i know i can wait for a somewhat decent price (as opposed to a mindrust price but no guarantees of course) helps me sleep at night.

I like this topic because there can be some several objective ways of considering the matter in terms of how prepared any of us might need to be for cashflows completely drying up or needing to tap into bitcoin because other cashflows had dried up.

Of course, how many of those cashflows are going to dry up and then just leave you with bitcoin ONLY?  And, if you know that they are drying up, do they dry up immediately or do they give you some lead time?  Of course, all of us know that if we have been living at a certain standard of living that might already be in a kind of lavish "fuck you" level, we could potentially cut back to 50% of our current standard of living, but we might be more accepting of just cutting back 25% for a period of time.

If we are in a practice of keeping a 3-year reserve, and then some BIG emergency situation happens, sure we could start to dig into the 3-year reserve, but we might scramble in terms of other sources first and to maintain the 3-year reserves, so even though during such emergency, we are spending from various other sources in higher ways and even attempting to cut back on our other potentially lavish (excess) consumption, we might still be trying to preserve or maintain our 3-year reserve in order that we are trying to be prepared in the event that another emergency comes in the midst of the earlier one.  For sure emergencies do not come as singles, do they?  They are either pairs or triplets, no?

Another good thing about holding a variety of different kinds of assets - (For sure, I am not referring to diversifying into shitcoins) - is that you might not even realize the various loops to be jumped through in order to actually put those assets to work in terms of liquidation and how liquid that they might be and surely with a variety of untapped and quasi-illiquid assets end up becoming liquid and maybe more preferably liquid.. even though (as you already suggested vapourminer) maybe bitcoin could have ended up being the more plausible of liquid assets because it is known to be liquid, but the three year cash reserves ends up allowing you to chose your time for liquidation and even which asset to liquidate before running out of that emergency fund in the event that you have already used up all your other assets and you only have bitcoin left... and surely as well three years gives you time to consider the liquidation (or partial liquidation) of other assets first, too. 

One of the reasons that I have continued to harp on the 208-week moving average as a great measuring tool for having had reached fuck you status and then how to withdrawal bitcoin once reaching fuck you status is because it has been tending to move up at a rate that can allow for a decently large and regular pace of increases, and so if the price of BTC is getting close (maybe within 10% or so) to the 208-week moving average then there would be some reluctancy withdraw any BTC while the BTC price was within that low range... which historically have been pretty short periods of time.. so hopefully withdraws could be timed around that and surely if BTC prices were causing the 208-week moving to be gravitating downward rather than upward, then surely we are already in pretty damned BIG trouble by that time.. and maybe would have needed to look at a lower level indicator to forecast the BTC is dead is really real this time scenario. 

Even though I am currently projecting my cashflows out around 24 months, I surely do not have nearly that level of 3 years of liquid reserves built into my system.. and such liquid reserves that I have are kind of scattered between funds, so is not even in a dedicated fund - or maybe not even properly flagged, even though in so many funds that I keep, I never spend them to zero, so I will usually have some funds that are there as a kind of floating balance.. and can end up being quite large sums of money depending on what other activities I am planning or juggling in terms of where money might be moved from one fund to another... so maybe for me, it might be good to at least better categorize those various funds, in order to get a better grasp on how much of a reserve that I have (even if I do not keep those funds in a separate account.. which surely is likely to be more of the preferred way of keeping track of the existence, size and maintenance of the size of such funds up to a certain predetermined level).

[WaltKitty]

A top Federal Reserve official on Monday advocated against creating a digital version of the U.S. dollar, questioning the use cases and security of a Fed-issued digital currency.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-randal-quarles-skeptical-about-need-for-us-digital-dollar-171011654.html

[JayJuanGee]

Salutations.

I suppose I should start off with the obligatory first post statement of I am long-time watcher of this eclectic thread. It can be quite entertaining at times. In regards to the recent price action and wall watching or whatever it is that is done here. It seems as if Wall Street has already determined what Bitcoins value is going to be with a volatility ratio comparison to gold. I am not quite certain how I feel about this, especially coming from JPMorgan. Literally in my opinion the belly of the beast. Any comments or thoughts from the esteemed members of this community?

Panigirtzoglou and his team have our call of the day, giving bitcoin a fair value of $23,000 to $35,000 over the medium term, based on the relationship between its volatility and gold’s, as the crypto faces new headwinds.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-much-bitcoin-is-worth-says-jpmorgan-as-crypto-faces-this-summer-headwind-11624533578

Welcome to the thread, WaltKitty.

You are going to need a lot of luck and training if you believe that Wall street has much if anything to do with the BTC's price, except for perhaps some short-term periods in which they may be able to capture it (or say that they had captured it).. yes.. for short periods.

If it were up to Wall street, BTC prices would still be below $500 and they lost that battle in early 2016.  Sucks for them .. the pompous asses. .who do not even adequately account for what bitcoin happens to be.

So sure they will continue to have more battles to keep BTC's price where they would like it to be (and to proclaim that they are keeping it there).  I could probably give you a litany of examples, but it is a BIG ass waste of time, and you have to figure that out for ur lil selfie.. whether it takes you a few weeks to figure it out or you dabble with those kinds of misconceptions for 10 years or longer when you could have just been buying bitcoin.

In other words, inevitably, just like 2016, your lil Wall street buddies have to change their purported price control reference points (ongoingly in the upwards direction) in order to make it seem that they have any kind of semblance of an idea about what is happening in bitcoinlandia and to appear as if they have control of BTC prices beyond relatively short periods of time.

[nanobtc]

WaltKitty, Welcome, to the machine.

[sirazimuth]

Buddy Blocker

When $40,000 FFS 

here ya go...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[WaltKitty]

Welcome to the thread, WaltKitty.

Thank you.

You are going to need a lot of luck and training if you believe that Wall street has much if anything to do with the BTC's price, except for perhaps some short-term periods in which they may be able to capture it (or say that they had captured it).. yes.. for short periods.

I believe you are misconstruing my belief system with a question. I do think luck and training are a important aspect of ones corporeal existence though.

If it were up to Wall street, BTC prices would still be below $500 and they lost that battle in early 2016.  Sucks for them .. the pompous asses. .who do not even adequately account for what bitcoin happens to be.

I am detecting a certain amount of pompousness myself, much to my surprise.

So sure they will continue to have more battles to keep BTC's price where they would like it to be (and to proclaim that they are keeping it there).  I could probably give you a litany of examples, but it is a BIG ass waste of time, and you have to figure that out for ur lil selfie.. whether it takes you a few weeks to figure it out or you dabble with those kinds of misconceptions for 10 years or longer when you could have just been buying bitcoin.

I am very impressed that you are able to discern my time of involvement with Bitcoin and also my accumulation habits out of a few short sentences. Kudos to you.

In other words, inevitably, just like 2016, your lil Wall street buddies have to change their purported price control reference points (ongoingly in the upwards direction) in order to make it seem that they have any kind of semblance of an idea about what is happening in bitcoinlandia and to appear as if they have control of BTC prices beyond relatively short periods of time.

I did not step into this thread to start a flame war but your presumptions about who and what my "buddies" are is flawed in my opinion. I think what I pointed out is a relevant topic in relation to the current price dynamic.

WaltKitty, Welcome, to the machine.

Thanks!

[El duderino_]

Brand new and already better as me with the format of the forum 

I'll be staying the forever n00b I guess

[modrobert]

A top Federal Reserve official on Monday advocated against creating a digital version of the U.S. dollar, questioning the use cases and security of a Fed-issued digital currency.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-randal-quarles-skeptical-about-need-for-us-digital-dollar-171011654.html

Welcome,

Any currency which can be inflated as needed can never be compared to Bitcoin. I guess it will be useful for someone, but to me it's even worse than the shitcoins, at least some of those have limited amount, like Litecoin (maximum 84 million).

[WaltKitty]

Brand new and already better as me with the format of the forum 

Greetings El duderino_

I find it easiest to cut out the quotation brackets of the person you are replying to and then highlight and control-c/control-v the relevant statement in and then type your reply underneath that. I think your formatting is just fine by the way.

I'll be staying the forever n00b I guess

I disagree.   

Welcome,

Thank you modrobert.

Any currency which can be inflated as needed can never be compared to Bitcoin. I guess it will be useful for someone, but to me it's even worse than the shitcoins, at least some of those have limited amount, like Litecoin (maximum 84 million).

I think some comparative analysis is required as long as fiat trading pairs are the standard of exchange for Bitcoin. I agree with your premise though.

[El duderino_]

Off Topic

But please send France home Switzerland

Dechamps is the ultimate definition of an "arrogant frenchmen"

[_javi_]

Coyote gifs.. what a flashback!

NotLambchop, my first ignored in the forum.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[modrobert]

Coyote gifs.. what a flashback!

NotLambchop, my first ignored in the forum.

Not a fan of Coyote? It felt appropriate as the BTC/USD rate seems a bit weightless at the moment.

[sirazimuth]

Hey Chartbud!   I command you to post...


.....

wtf?...does he take a tea break at 4pm or something?


oh nevermind... daylight savings...my bad

[JayJuanGee]

So sure they will continue to have more battles to keep BTC's price where they would like it to be (and to proclaim that they are keeping it there).  I could probably give you a litany of examples, but it is a BIG ass waste of time, and you have to figure that out for ur lil selfie.. whether it takes you a few weeks to figure it out or you dabble with those kinds of misconceptions for 10 years or longer when you could have just been buying bitcoin.

I am very impressed that you are able to discern my time of involvement with Bitcoin and also my accumulation habits out of a few short sentences. Kudos to you.

This is a public thread, so such comment is not attempting to identify your specifics, even  though you are more than free to share them in order that we can try to get to know you a wee bit MOAR better.

In other words, inevitably, just like 2016, your lil Wall street buddies have to change their purported price control reference points (ongoingly in the upwards direction) in order to make it seem that they have any kind of semblance of an idea about what is happening in bitcoinlandia and to appear as if they have control of BTC prices beyond relatively short periods of time.

I did not step into this thread to start a flame war but your presumptions about who and what my "buddies" are is flawed in my opinion.

I think that I made a fair inference, but sure maybe we will get to know you better and figure out if you might have allegiances or not.

I think what I pointed out is a relevant topic in relation to the current price dynamic.

It's not an unfair topic.  

Hey Chartbud!   I command you to post...


.....

wtf?...does he take a tea break at 4pm or something?


oh nevermind... daylight savings...my bad

Snap out of it, sirazimuth.

[shahzadafzal]

Interesting story of how El Salvador adopted bitcoin. It’s not a one day news in fact bitcoin took its time. This small documentary explains very well how it has happened, or it won’t be wrong if I say a best video of how living in a bitcoin town would be.

Apparently it all started with when in 2019 “someone” donated 12 bitcoins to this beach village. This someone is still a mystery may be he was Satoshi or El duderino_ who knows?? He or they we don’t know.

I like her .. Dominga Peña she says “I use bitcoin to save money”. Yes this is a story of small town but this will be an example for the future. We as a generation don’t have idea how or when this paper money took over the world but certainly we are the generation watching this paper money loosing its ground and its fake power in front of our eyes.


Of course Governments and these federal banks won’t give up so easily we can expect there will be more restrictions and bans around bitcoin but it has began and stopping bitcoin won’t be easy too.

On a side note I like this documentary because that’s how journalism should be, don’t just speculate the news. Go and bring the facts first hand talk to people who are involved. We can still argue how it’s being presented but that’s a topic for another day.

Watch this small documentary of El Salvador village here https://youtu.be/jvHN0MEBoZo