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No problem with joking, but the truth of the matter is that hardly anyone here knows you, and therefore the likelihood of confusion becomes pretty damned high - and furthermore, being in the middle of a war or the greatest wealth transfer in history is no laughing matter, even if from time to time we can make some jokes along the way that are not as likely to be misunderstood.
Serious question, if it's not too much of an Op Sec violation, what is your primary spoken language? Makes it easier to predict the phraseology that may be misconstrued if I know what you're accustomed to.
Personally, I speak American English with a slight southern accent, but I think I am understanding your humor and random grumpy old manishness just fine... trying to nail down the disconnect, ya understand... 🤔
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So I've been pondering a new little angle on the LumpSum/DCA/Dippety-Doo-Dah strategy and wanted to see what others think of my ponderances...
(And NO it doesn't involve shitcoins, so put the high-horse away for now)
Fair enough.. glad you are not bringing shitcoins in here any more than necessary because they tend to cause mass headache events in these here parts, kind of like a virus.
See, there's that grumpining I was mentioning....
So, we take our expected available investment capital & split it into 3 piles blah, blah, blah... then we take the DCA pile and (for reasons of explanation) let's say split it into 52 weekly buys. But rather than making the weekly DCA blind market price buys, take a minute each week to analyze the market using whatever tools we've learned to make a solid educated guess on what the "bottom" is gonna be that week and set a Stop/Limit buy at that amount.
Everything sounds good until you get to mentioning the stop... From my perspective, you are overly complicating matters by fucking around with stop limit bullshit because we see it so many times that stop limits are sought out for liquidation and then after you are force sold, the price goes shooting up -
You're losing me here, or maybe I lost you?
I'm not talking about a "Stop Loss" or any kind of Leveraging... I'm talking about a "Stop/Limit Buy Order" as opposed to a market order. By my understanding it just a means of placing an order at a specific price, higher or lower than the current market price, and as soon as, or rather if the market price reaches that level, the bid is activated and filled if there are any asks on the book at that price. For the small amounts I'm dealing with, I can pretty much rely on my order being filled at the exact limit price I set as long as the market price reaches that level. If I was dealing in larger sums, I may need to extend out to a range limit rather than a specific price, but have not gotten to that level yet. Not only does this buying method give me better exchange fee rates, but it also makes it simpler because I don't have to time the market to the price I want, I just set it and walk away while the market comes to me.
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In other words, let's say that you hit your waves 75% of the time, but 25% you do not. Probably you will end up wasting your time at least and losing all your money at worse.
Yea, I think we're talking 2 different languages here. Not seeing where there is any loss? If I hit my lower than market buy points 75% of the time, I am GREATLY increasing the speed at which my Sats are stackening! And if you bother reading forward in the post before you call the other 25% missed...? Is that it? Do you not read the whole idea before you start posting interjections? Do you also spend all your time in a real world conversation thinking about what you're gonna say when the person shuts up rather than listening to what they are actually saying? Not a great conversation strategy that...
If your timeline is 10 years or more (and you even said that your timeline is 25-35 years) you don't need to be fucking around. Just stack your sats and don't play around with bullshit. (yeah sure, I know that you are going to do what you are going to do, but this thread is public, so I am not just directing this answer at your seemingly gambling inclinations).
You're right, in the end I'm gonna do what I decide to do, but at the current state of things, I'm not sure I have 10+ years to accumulate a decent BTC stack if I don't maximize the volume acquired by every penny I invest. You like to go back to the same accusatory language about "gambling inclinations" but in this conversation, I don't understand the gamble in setting my buys to aim for the lowest price each week, especially if you've read ahead of your current interjection to see that in this system I am leaving any missed orders in place to catch future coins in a case of big dippening... worst case scenario after a 4 year cycle, if I really suck at reading the conditions and missed to the low side 50% of the time, I have a significant lump sum to dump in at the new low after a parabolic crash. And if I REALLY suck at guessing the lows, you'd think I would have missed to the high side of the weekly lows about half the time and still accumulated a lot of Sats that I would not have gotten if I'd always bought at the higher market price.
So where's the disconnect here? Am I misunderstanding the nature of Stop/Limit Buy orders? Or are you misunderstanding the terms I'm using? Or are you just not reading what I typed and assuming I'm just a dumbfuck gambler looking for a get rich quick scheme and therefore in need of pontificating preachery?
Seriously, I want to understand.
Now here's the kicker, once that order is placed, it's placed! Self Discipline! No take backs! Now as we're going along, if we find a point where our expected DCA'd low for the week already has a Stop/Limit order with-in $1k we choose which one we want to keep, and place the other $1k higher, but if $1k higher is higher than current market or already taken we place it $1k lower. Continue this alternating Hi//Low until we find the first available Stop/Limit placement.
If I understand you correctly, you are just fucking around with the new money that comes in, so it is a relatively small amount of your yearly expected investment amount 1/52... so sure, you could run such an experiment for a while and try to figure out if you have a tendency to be able to perform better than vanilla DCAing.
This is the point where I think you have JUST read this for the VERY First Time AS you are putting together your interjections. Didn't I say something about "putting away that high horse" back in the very beginning?
*reads back*
Yup thought so.
So for clarity's sake... Read My Words, Not your Assumptions
I am NOT touching ANY coins previously bought, at no point is a Sale ever being entered into the order book.
What I am talking about doing is placing my weekly DCA purchases on the order book at the best price I can reasonably expect to actually get that week rather than just blindly saying "gimme this much money's worth of coins right now regardless of current price or direction of movement in the market"
So, like this week... price seems to be undulating between 31.5k and 34.5k. I can't be certain it's going to go all the way back down to 31.5k but I'm pretty certain it will be below the current $34.6k. So I'd probably set this week's buy at about $32.8k. Pretty good chance I fill that order this week and if not, there's a really good chance it gets filled with in the next 4 years! Right? So over the course of 4 years, If I'm buying $100 every week and getting those results every week, that's $500 more worth of bitcoins even if it never goes above the $35k range! Where am I gambling?
I will admit that when I was earlier in my BTC accumulation stage, I did used to give my lil selfie a weekly allowance, and that did last for about a year on a regular basis and more sporadically in the next year or so. So, even if I did not play around with stop losses - because I don't really believe in them, but I did try to time some or all of my weekly allowance for dips, to the extent that I had any feelings about how each week would go once my allowance period started.
You do understand what I mean by a "Stop/Limit Buy" right? So by placing stop/Limit orders, I save on exchange fees, and I don't have to spend all week stuck to the chart looking for the best time to buy at market price.
I probably still will, because I like watching the way the candles form and checking depth charts to see if I can recognize indicators of how things are moving at different times... but that's just to sharpen skillz, not actually doing any transactions.
So, of course, I am way more inclined to believe that you do not need all that bullshit attempts at trying to stack more sats when there is a system that works quite well already, and since bitcoin is designed to pump forever, you are already in an asymmetric as fuck bet, and way ahead of regular peeps who are likely to be coming into bitcoin in the next few BTC cycles with BTC prices relatively quite a bit higher than they are at any point in this particular cycle..
And quite a bit behind you and many others who had the time and capital to get started on this year's ago when prices were in 3 & 4 digit figures... So yeah,, it looks like it could reach into high 6 digits and by the dreams of some,, maybe even 7 figures, but what if? What if the mass adoptions and corporate interests cause it to flatten out and stagnate in the high 5 figures? What if this is the last 4 year cycle before all volatility settles out?? I want to maximize my value of every meager penny I can currently afford to invest.. And so I'm asking you guys "What holes do you see in this plan?" And you rage about stop losses, leverage, and gambling?? Yea, we agree, but I'm asking about THIS plan... did you read it?
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so fucking around with the cycle may end up causing you to invest less. but sure.. experiment with it if you feel that you need to see if you can beat the market with your weekly allowance for the next 52 weeks or however long you continue to employ that strategy.. and sure if your strategy is successful, you can extend it, and maybe you will be ready to share some knowledge with other guys here .. so long as you come up with something that is NOT too overly complicated.
OK, Yes, the remote chance that I really suck at placing Stop/Limit orders could possibly cause me to end up with less coins if the market never goes anywhere but up. Good point and taken to heart.
For sure, it is difficult as fuck to just get guys to figure out their own finances and attempt to employ the most basic of strategies, so if you are adding additional complexity, then you surely might be advantaged by that if you really are able to calculate both what you are doing and being honest with yourself in terms of whether you are actually beating a more basic DCAing strategy that is already proven as pretty damned solid and not too likely to devolve into any thing less solid any time soon, especially for guys with a decently long investment time horizon.
OK Yes, I also agree that average Joe Q Public generally sucks at anything that doesn't involve sitting on the couch randomly changing channels and stuffing chips in their mouths until they die too young, too fat, and WAY too broke... not generally the type that succeeds at investing and I'm sure you see more than your share of those coming and going to see what this BitCoinCrypto thingy is all about... I give you some leverage there and understand. BTW, did you read the plan I was asking about?
I am married, for 16 years to the same woman. Have my house and 4 cars paid for, no kids, and I'm not excessively overweight or unhealthy. Yea it's a public forum, but I was asking what you thought about the merits of my plan that I'm pondering, not that guys...
Now as time goes on, we should be able to use this experience to improve on our weekly analytical skills so our success rate should improve, but invariably there will likely be a number of Stop/Limit orders on the table where BTC's uppity got away from us...
I agree.. you should be able to both learn from your system and adjust your amounts or stop loss placements in order to attempt to account for if you are getting better or not... and surely, it could take a whole cycle to figure out if you are good in both a bear market and a bull market and if you really have any clue figuring out which one you might be in and if the BTC price moves in directions that you predict more than it moves against you.. and sure there are probably also ways that you could have a 20% or 30% success rate but still be profitable overall and even beating the DCA approach, if you were to want to use that as a cross-reference.
So you are starting to catch on to what I'm talking about. So going back to my easy figures, 20-30% gains if we're $100/week over 4 years makes the difference between $20,800 invested and $26,000 invested. (Averaging out to 25%) but if we look further into the system and see that all of those missed orders stay on the books and are therefore filled every time the market dips... doesn't it seem like more than 20-30% would end up being filled? Assuming the market continues to behave as it has with volatility and swings up & down of course. If it's nothing but a parabolic uppity climb, sure I may end up with a lot more orders on the books than filled, but in that case, I'd have a whole lot more total value than I'm currently planning for and I'd still have all the dollars in those orders to lump sum in.
But yes that's one market case that the system likely fails on and I will have to keep that in mind.
but the orders were placed and so they stay! Because as we all know, every 4 year cycle, the parabolic downing returns! But now, this is a point of celebration! Because all those low-balled S/L's between the top and the bottom of the crash get bought up at dippening prices! Then, when all your learned Sciences & Maths tell you that the bottom is in and the long weary crypto winter has begun, it's again time for celebration, because every S/L order that is left more than 30% below your current "bottom" price gets canceled all at once, and you use that new lump sum to buy at the current market price. The "new low" and the cycle starts again.
It sounds good in theory, or on paper, but you might not really know if you are able to do it without practicing, and surely how much value do you want to place in making these kinds of bets remains a discretionary matter.. and you surely would need to try to employ a certain level of humbleness and rational thought to what you are doing, especially the more complicated the system becomes.
Duly noted and appreciated.
Now my thinking here is, if the goal is buy & HODL anywho,
Probably that should be the overall goal for anyone who considers himself/herself to be in BTC accumulation stage... which could last 10-20 years before reaching adequate and satisfactorily accumulation levels that you feel comfortable playing around..,. or experimenting.
Yes! My goal Certainly is Buy & HODL. And all I'm trying to do is increase my odds of buying the most possible with my allotted weekly investment by aiming for the best price and learning to sharpen my aiming skillz.
the stop/limits that are missed and left on the exchange until the next crash are bought anyway, and you should be increasing your odds of getting the best price with each week's analysis... so over time, your tools and skillz should always be improving.
I agree that in theory that sounds doable.. so maybe it will work for you since you seem to be more than willing to put in the time, attempts at learning, tweakengings along the way and ongoing analysis.
Thank You, yes, if I'm gonna do this, I want to dedicate myself to doing it to my very best ability. That's kinda how I roll.
Part of the benefits of DCA is that not too much efforts need to be put into it, at least relative to the kind of practices that you are suggesting to employ, so maybe even some system like your might appeal only to 1/10 personas at best, but I am thinking that your system would be have even a lower appeal level than that amongst the regular population - because the overwhelming vast majority of peeps have difficulties figuring out even how much free cashflow that they have on a regular basis and do not tend to project their cashflow out for more than a month or two, so lots of normies (and even otherwise very smart people who have their smarts in other areas/specialties) end up scrambling because they are not really inclined to be spending a lot of time looking at charts and trying to strategize (and if they do, they do not tend to be very good at it at all, even with quite a bit of practicing).
Yup, glad I'm not that guy! 😜
And if this strategy spreads, and a bunch of peeps start doing it, it should serve to dampen parabolic Downward volatility as well as adding a booster shot to each extreme bottom.
I agree that if you are able to establish a system that works and is better than simple DCA'ing and you are able to share or communicate your strategies clearly in ways that people understand, then more mass following of such a system could bring down volatility - especially if you can figure out ways to punish the stop loss hunters who tend to get rewarded for punishing a bunch of folks who believe that they are smarter than more simple vanilla DCA buy, accumulate and HODL practices.
So yea, Mass adoption theories are moot unless I can find ways to simplify and articulate. Good point!
Now, of course, this does put a bit of faith in the exchange, and I know Mt. Gox nightmares abound. But the exchange I'm using is a massive US based, publicly traded, insured company, and regardless of the current condition of our shamwow government, I have to expect that severe regulatory pressure will prevent any cut & run tendency would be minimized, and I will certainly keep my coins & keys transferred to a private wallet every time the value reaches my predefined amount that justifies the transaction costs and exposure limitations. And I have to think the documented Fiat amounts would be much easier to recover than an amount of BTC that has no other documentation outside of the exchange itself.
Of course, exchange risks vary, so not sure if you can account for all of the exchange risks, but sure you can engage in various mitigating efforts and sometimes you can use a couple exchanges, too. Sometimes I will run into one or two exchanges having "short term" difficulties, but other exchanges NOT having such "difficulties", and sometimes such "difficulties can screw you out of keeping your management of your portfolio balanced in a way that you would like... and sometimes you might not even realize some of the level of information sharing that one exchange might engage in versus another one, even though these days you probably should be assuming that your exchange information is being shared in ways that is not really preferable to you.
Yea, hadn't thought about diversifying my exchanges, but seems like that would magnify complexity and possibly even increase risk exposure... I think I'll keep my limited faith in the one big one until I see any reason not to....
BUT, I'm a Newbie still and just pondering this, so please feel free to shoot as many holes in it as possible... please?
I don't have any problems with practicing and trying to figure things out, and surely we sometimes see that some guys get burnt really bad because they seem to be employing good practices, but then they end up devolving into too much gambling or just experiencing some kind of meltdown that goes beyond what should have happened.. because we already know that bitcoin overshoots BIGGEDly and it is difficult to establish a sustainable system that can last even a whole cycle.. so even if some of us guys might give you suggestions in one direction or another, ultimately you have to figure out what kind of balancing works for you both financially and psychology and it might end UP not matching any other guy here.. but who cares, as long as it works for you, then that will be the main point...
Thank You for taking the time to read and evaluate Jay, even if you do come across as a grumpy old fuck half the time! 🙃
TLDR: none of us (royal us, I suppose?) here gives any shits about uie-pooie more than uie-pooie gives shits about ur lil selfie, amiNOTrite?
And once again, I certainly hope that's true! (#nohomo)
(Hopefully quote format worked out better, kinda complicated on a little smartphone)
(Edit: I Hate Autocorrect!)
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