Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714731169]

1714731169

[cAPSLOCK]

So, this is where we are at...  A little volume for a push over this level, and we up the chances of a reversal quite a bit, I'd think...

[cAPSLOCK]

How could you do this???

In a remote hearing today, a judge said that “Cøbra,” the pseudonymous operator of Bitcoin.org, must display a notice on his website about the judgment, pay at least £35,000 ($48,600) in legal costs and remove the whitepaper from his site. Cøbra lost the case through a default judgment; he mounted no defense to preserve his pseudonymity.

https://decrypt.co/74657/bitcoin-inventor-whitepaper-lawsuit-craig-wright-cobra

This will force many to come out of anonymity now.

This is how CSW works he pecks away at official or pseudo official things that will name him as Satoshi and then claim that as evidence that he is. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a certificate for a star named "Satoshi" somewhere next to his suspicious law cert.

I think his game plan is clear.

He wants to make a legal claim to the fact he is "Satoshi", and then he will have the court issue an order that the BTC (and BCH and BSV devs) make a change to the code that allows him to access the keys to the "Satoshi coins" on his list.

His funder has made 10 figures using the courts for this sort of shenanigans for years.

As much as I think he is a horrible person, this drama is somewhat interesting.  One interesting point is, if my some stroke of luck he actually can get the "order" to have BTC code changed to grant him access we will see yet another fork.  Obviously the real bitcoin devs will not changer the code.  But someone will, and that fork will be launched, and declared the "true bitcoin" or even the "true BTC".

This is tiresome.  But it is also a reality, and one of the sorts of attacks on Bitcoin that I do not think (the actual) Satoshi foresaw.  Nor did the others 10 years ago who had somewhat better vision than him like Finney.

I hear many people calling for the code to be "ossified".  That even the hard fought improvements like Taproot/Schnorr are not worth the social risk.  But I think they are stopping one level too short of where the REAL ossification has to happen and HAS BEEN happening.

That is the ossification of consensus.  We can have as many copies of Bitcoin created as there are places to store the blockchain.  And the argument by many no-coiners that there are "endless bitcoins" because there are "endless forks, and alts" is easily brushed aside by the true believers, but in reality it is important, and necessary for us to go through this process during the birth of a new monetary network.  The tradeoff with this network being FOSS is it can be forked as many times as people want to fork it.  And that is where one of the most viable realms of attacks are.  Wright and Ayre have been gathering as many followers and believers as possible in an alternate vision for Bitcoin to the end that they can subvert it, take it over, and be the central authority of it.

This seems very futile to me, in light of the fact that the network has CLEARLY shown where consensus lies for the last 4 years as well as the fact that relative new converts (and ones in power like President Bukele) have also correctly evaluated the landscape and seen that Bitcoin, with all it's choices and tradeoffs is ONE THING, and there is no need to listen to the various siren songs of imitators and subverters.

But it is still going to happen. And things like default judgements in the courts etc will happen, and that wedge will be driven as far as possible before trying to do the eventual "flip".

Of course this is futile, and annoying.  I wish i had some clarity on the way this continues to unfold, but I see to many competing possibilities.  But most future universes end in failure for our friends the frauds.  It's just that the real thing ends up having to walk through this mud on the way to rock solid establishment.

[Dabs]

What jurisdiction does a domain like bitcoin.org fall in? I believe that top level domain is in the US and not in the UK. Can it just use ip-geo to block UK viewers or something? It's going to be a hassle if it has to be done this way, as some other country may be forced to do this too, if CSW files a complaint in another court in another country.

So annoying ...

Eventually, one does not really need a website for bitcoin to continue, however a website is still a good idea for public information about it all.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still sidling along in the mid-$3xxxx range, albeit with a slight upward drift... currently $36200USD/$44800CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Ho hum. Summer doldrums.

Eventually, one does not really need a website for bitcoin to continue, however a website is still a good idea for public information about it all.

The lack of any website, physical address, CEO, or any identifiable person connected to the protocol is actually one of Bitcoin's greatest strengths.

Public information? Perhaps the public needs to be educated about the need to distrust anything with a CEO, a website and a brick-and-mortar address.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

It wasn't my intention to center out bots; just the ones running in JJG mode.  In fairness to chartbuddy, it has never even operated in verbose mode let alone JJG mode.

#nohomo

For what it's worth, I agree that Richy_T mode is seemingly different than JJG mode (whatever the fuck that JJG mode is?  Pro tip: not even JJG knows what "JJG mode" is.. so go figure ur lil selfie.)... hahahahahahaha

This is a public thread, so such comment is not attempting to identify your specifics, even  though you are more than free to share them in order that we can try to get to know you a wee bit MOAR better.

We must hold the beasts at bay and in their place.
So we seldom ask them questions, lest they answer and terrify us by smashing our beliefs.
-Charles Bowden

I think that I made a fair inference, but sure maybe we will get to know you better and figure out if you might have allegiances or not.

You seem inclined to throw pluralis majestatis around quite casually. I am curious about this affectation since "we" seem to be trying to get to know one another better. To answer your direct question, my allegiances are firm and to myself only. What you see is what you get.

I will leave it at that with a small twist.

https://imgbox.com/fYPtNrQB

Of course, it is your choice regarding how amorphous you want to be in terms of presenting your information in the thread in terms of what you know and why you might have arrived at some of your speculative conclusions, whether posting about BTC or other related areas that we might touch upon here from time to time. 

But, yeah if you want to come off as if you are smarter than everyone else, that could be problematic... but do as you wish.. I have no problem with your participation, and likely with the passage of time, many of us will get to know you better anyhow, so long as you continue to post and provide various kinds of information... however, if some of your information seems in need of details, seems misleading or disingenuine or raises questions about how you are arriving at your conclusions, don't be surprised if some people might question your intentions or your reasons for raising such topic(s)...   

Personally, I appreciate coming across some potentially new perspectives in the thread, but of course, if I believe some aspects of your posts (or the posts of any other member for that matter) are problematic in one way or another, I am not going to be easily cowed or dissuaded in terms of saying my piece in the way that I have decided to do so.. Of course, I don't read every post, and sometimes I don't feel that I understand some posts sufficiently enough to respond (or sometimes some posts might not raise any point that interests me at the moment I come across the post), so there are those angles, too...

In any event, so far, you have made some somewhat interesting points and posts... even if I have not agreed with several of them.

[aysg76]

Have people on the internet lost all capability to think rationally?

I keep reading shit like "The hash rate has dropped significantly, so yeah all Chinese mining has stopped. Miners---they're leaving China."

No, idiot. It could also mean that mining machines in China were just intentionally turned off. Which also implies that they can just as easily be turned back on.

In that scenario, you wouldn't know the difference, nor would you be able to confirm or deny.  

Yes exactly.The people just simply react insignificantly to anything they saw on social media like all this Chinese mining buzz all around and people saying hashrate has dropped and majority of doesn't know what does it implies even.The Chinese or the government media spreading fake videos to show how miners are throwing away mining rigs is another addition to that.So what if they have banned mining as miners will shift to some other locations and distributing the central hashrate control now and China having trillion dollars loss ahead to them with this decision as you cannot trade digital Yuan in global trades.So better think that you need btc but it doesn't need you.

[deft2g]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJeddv1QbeQ

@proudhun

[JayJuanGee]

Moar mainstream interest.

https://www.coindesk.com/morgan-stanley-buys-over-28000-shares-of-grayscale-bitcoin-trust

Edit: that's a buy for ants!  Not even a million.

I was a bit confused by the title too in terms of the price of a GBTC share.. which seems to be .001 BTC per share, so $28,000 would be a bit more than $1 million around current BTC prices of $36k per BTC, but the GBTC shares are trading around $31  as I type, so those 28,000 shares would currently only cost around $868k, and presumably a bit lower when Morgan Stanley bought them.. since we have a slight UPpity - perhaps for ants, yet in the past 11 days we have not broken above the mid $36ks.. so we will find out if this time is different or not.   

I would consider that even buying something in the neighborhood of $700k to $800k shares in GBTC at a discount $30 or less would likely have great odds of a good pay off for anyone hanging onto those shares for 4 years or longer, but I doubt that Morgan Stanley would be locking themselves into longer term HODLing plays.. but still they might find themselves in a decent place even a year from now with that purchase.. who knows?  Many of us have longer time horizons in terms of our buying of BTC, but institutions have all kinds of conflicting motives that may or may not end up working out for them in terms of how they might end up playing their BTC hand.

Still there for now:

Even if for some reason Cøbra will comply (keep in mind that they don't know his identity!), only UK visitors will be affected.

Sorry, I might not have been following the default judgement matter sufficiently because surely there could potentially be ways to still make an appearance and to preserve identity, but once a default judgement is handed down, then it would likely be harder to appeal any aspect of it.. And, in any event it seems like a potentially reasonable point in terms of merely removing the posting of the whitepaper (or the cite) from the UK.  I wonder if that resolves the issue?  Of course, there is the matter of the fine and whether to pay it, too.  Seems like paying it would more clearly cause that issue to go away, but there could be some options regarding that matter too... It would not be good to cause any situation that gives any hooks to shut down an otherwise valid website, such as the nonpayment of a fine... so of course, legal counsel would be beneficial to consider the weighing of options.

Crabs, crabs, everywhere.

However I loath that lowlife POS CSW, whilst Musk basks in the sunshine in comparison.

The good thing is, that CSW has a dedicated thread on this forum, and you're very welcome to drop by and take a shit.
Fear not, it will get deleted.

Even though I cannot really disagree with your intentions CT, it seems like a BIG ass waste of time to be posting in a self-moderated scam thread, whether about BSV or any other self-moderated scam thread that is on the forum.. but no problem posting in some parallel thread (not self-moderated) in which your posts are not going to get deleted (or cross-referencing their nonsense in the not self-moderated thread).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Elwar]

How could you do this???

In a remote hearing today, a judge said that “Cøbra,” the pseudonymous operator of Bitcoin.org, must display a notice on his website about the judgment, pay at least £35,000 ($48,600) in legal costs and remove the whitepaper from his site. Cøbra lost the case through a default judgment; he mounted no defense to preserve his pseudonymity.

https://decrypt.co/74657/bitcoin-inventor-whitepaper-lawsuit-craig-wright-cobra

This will force many to come out of anonymity now.

This is how CSW works he pecks away at official or pseudo official things that will name him as Satoshi and then claim that as evidence that he is. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a certificate for a star named "Satoshi" somewhere next to his suspicious law cert.

I think his game plan is clear.

He wants to make a legal claim to the fact he is "Satoshi", and then he will have the court issue an order that the BTC (and BCH and BSV devs) make a change to the code that allows him to access the keys to the "Satoshi coins" on his list.

He got a lot of money from his investment group on the promise that he was Satoshi. He was supposed to prove it by 2020 demonstrating that he had access to the million or so bitcoins owned by Satoshi.

I assume that he's able to still stay legally compliant with his contract as long as he "proves" that he is Satoshi. Everyone's assumption when first hearing about it was that he had all of those bitcoins and that they were locked until 2020 and that he would then sell it. Those that actually believed his story anyway.

[JayJuanGee]

Bullish https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/puell-multiple/

You may need to 'splain to some us mere mortals a wee bit MOAR better why you believe that the link that you posted is supposedly bullish.

Always keep calm and look to the important things

It's been a little bit studied before, but by somewhere between 2030 to 2040 all bitcoin has been practically mined, or close to 99%. The number would be above 20 million but below 21 million, and in fact it will never reach 21 million. Forecasted is something like 20.99 million. The last and final million coins will then take a literal one hundred years.

Actually, by 2024 we have 20.343 million coins, only 96% but still that's the mark.
By 2036 we have 20.917 million coins, about 99.61%.

By 2064 we have 20.999 million coins, 99.99% and then several decades of block rewards below 0.003 BTC per block (and getting smaller), not including transaction fees. It's likely by this point that transaction fees will equal or exceed the coinbase reward by this time, maybe even earlier.

Between 2036 to 2064 or about less than 30 years, the network will mine less than 820k new coins. Then between 2064 to 2140 less than 10k new coins, spread out over several decades.

We don't need to wait until 2099 or 2140 or the "last bitcoin", we'll start seeing stuff happen waaaay before then.

So, just to clarify, technically, not all bitcoin will be mined until a hundred years from now, but practically, you can think of it as already mined within the next couple of decades.

Huh?  Your factual description of the phenomena seems to be accurate, Dabs, but your conclusions come off as a wee bit lame.

Of course, the halvening of the issued supplied every four years is a very powerful concept because, for example, half of the bitcoins ever to be issued were mined in the first four years.. so in any event the continuation of the halvening phenomenon for around 130 years shows the seemingly exponential power of halvening.. so sure the big question does continue to be whether the newly issued coins are going to continue to matter as much, relatively speaking, or not...   

So, this bitcoin thingie ma jiggie remains a kind of experiment (mathematical or whatever) that has never been carried out previously, so will be interesting to see how it plays out even in the shorter term of a few more halvenings (like you suggested), but far from clear to arrive at the conclusion that the issuance of new supply is "not going to matter" merely because it continues and continues and continues to half and therefore seem to amount to very little new issuance relative to the already existing BTC supply ..

In the meantime, we might need to make sure we have a few coins in case this thingie-ma-jiggie might catch on.   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NeuroticFish]

Sorry, I might not have been following the default judgement matter sufficiently because surely there could potentially be ways to still make an appearance and to preserve identity, but once a default judgement is handed down, then it would likely be harder to appeal any aspect of it.. And, in any event it seems like a potentially reasonable point in terms of merely removing the posting of the whitepaper (or the cite) from the UK.  I wonder if that resolves the issue?  Of course, there is the matter of the fine and whether to pay it, too.  Seems like paying it would more clearly cause that issue to go away, but there could be some options regarding that matter too... It would not be good to cause any situation that gives any hooks to shut down an otherwise valid website, such as the nonpayment of a fine... so of course, legal counsel would be beneficial to consider the weighing of options.

First, they may have to hand him a paper telling that he has to comply to certain things. And this may be difficult without an identity.
Second, COPA has also started this year a trial against faketoshi and after they win that one a second trial may be needed to "fix" this.
But what I'm telling is what I think it's logical, I don't know that much about how legal system works. (And the result of the current trial looks far from logical.)

[Dabs]

My point was that in 10 or 20 years, for all practical purposes, you can consider bitcoin mined out already, and safely assume a nice round number of 20 million coins.

That does not even account for the lost coins and the locked-by-satoshi coins, which could be anywhere between a million and 5 million coins.

My conclusion therefore, which is intentionally vague and not accurate, is that over time, bitcoin is going to $1m USD per coin, and then much later on in another 10 to 20 years it's going to shoot up to $5m to $10m to $50m to $100m, and probably before the year 2140. My guess is 2070, but I'll probably be dead by then unless average life expectancy goes up.

I'm not coming up with any hard numbers for the conclusion, because the factual numbers are going to be as already stated. I may be off by a few years depending on average block times and if miners turn on or off their equipment, but on average blocks still happen every 10 minutes.

Once we have 99% of all coins mined, the value of each one is going to skyrocket into the stratosphere, into outer space, into mars, beyond pluto, whatever.

Always a good idea to have a small percent of all the fire ever, that which can not be generated more than 21 million.

[JayJuanGee]

My point was that in 10 or 20 years, for all practical purposes, you can consider bitcoin mined out already, and safely assume a nice round number of 20 million coins.

That does not even account for the lost coins and the locked-by-satoshi coins, which could be anywhere between a million and 5 million coins.

My conclusion therefore, which is intentionally vague and not accurate, is that over time, bitcoin is going to $1m USD per coin, and then much later on in another 10 to 20 years it's going to shoot up to $5m to $10m to $50m to $100m, and probably before the year 2140. My guess is 2070, but I'll probably be dead by then unless average life expectancy goes up.

I'm not coming up with any hard numbers for the conclusion, because the factual numbers are going to be as already stated. I may be off by a few years depending on average block times and if miners turn on or off their equipment, but on average blocks still happen every 10 minutes.

Once we have 99% of all coins mined, the value of each one is going to skyrocket into the stratosphere, into outer space, into mars, beyond pluto, whatever.

Always a good idea to have a small percent of all the fire ever, that which can not be generated more than 21 million.

Yes... of course, the halvening of the issuance of the new BTC supply can be spoken of from a variety of angles, and for sure you are not going to get any fight from me in regards to the extent of ongoing upwards price pressures that seem to be a logical conclusion - even though the whole situation is one that remains unclear about whether such exponential increases in scarcity - which also does not completely account for the ongoing lost and inaccessible already issued supply, as you mentioned...

So surely we are going to continue to experience game dynamics from this, and there are some lackings of clarity if the seeming extremeness of the actual shortage is going to require fixing or not.. We likely already realize that some entities are already engaged in fractional reserve shenanigans, and of course the more that the fractional reserve practices are called into question or even physically called out by demanding keys, the more clear it might become that the shortage of actual BTC continues to have ongoing upwards and exponential price pressures on BTC, and especially seeming to be the case with adoption likely continuing to exponentially increase, too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

BTW
CSW
WTF

few...