Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitebits]

https://www.swanbitcoin.com/the-diminishing-influence-of-halvings-on-bitcoins-price-geertjancap/


Interesting graph from the article, have not seen one like this before:

- The year-over-year price multiple is plotted in green. These data points are created by dividing the price at a given date by the price one year earlier.
As an example, if the price is twice the price of that one year prior, a value of 2 is shown in the chart.

- The halvings are indicated by the red vertical lines.




From the conclusion of the article:

[...] Peaks will be smaller as the supply shocks themselves become smaller. This implies that price changes will become princi­pally and overwhelm­ingly driven by demand changes alone. Demand changes are not directly tied to halving cycles. This would thus lead to smoother, although still likely extremely high, returns for Bitcoin.

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[Dabs]

Take 1g of Vitamin C every hour all day. That knocked out my COVID in a day.

Uh ... I know there's no such thing as Vitamin C overdose, but that's twice more than the maximum recommended (10 grams per day, some articles say 2 grams per day is the max without side effects) on some studies I read. I just take 1g a day and I'm doing fine. Maybe 2 if I don't forget, and just your typical costco / kirkland brand too.

Any more than 5 to 10 and you're likely to just waste it.

But then again, COVID is a new thing, perhaps that's what is needed ...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

@cAPSLOCK: Would you please elaborate a bit on this "state attack" scenario or point me to some reading or video? Thanks 

(multi) State attack:

-China (and other states or central banks?) decide to bring down hashrate to force the diff adjustment either with cooperative firms, or by force.
-Send out pics of miners "moving" (precedent: pics of people dying in the street from covid, and doors being barred).
-Concurrently stockpile net new miners. this could also be coordinated between multiple state actors.
-Wait for the drop.
-BOOM - Bring on all the miners you control.
-Attempt to fork the chain.
-Blast narratives on Twitter, Reddit and here to divide the community.
-Start the "CDBCs won't be flawed like this" campaign.

Like JayBot points out, I am a little wiggy/fringe.

Actually, this way of describing the scenario could be that China's CDBC could end up being the forked version  of bitcoin, like bcash did... bcash got a BIG ass windfall from it's shenanigans of tail-winding upon bitcoin's momentum.,. even bcash SV got some of the same tail-winding, initially, and surely the china CBDC will have more power behind it than the various bcash rag tag teams (so they believe).

Potentially a pretty good test of bitcoin, no?

It would be one of the best tests, and if it happens it will end up being seen as the birth of the new financial network and the beginning of the end for the old.

But like all births it could hurt.

And yes, I am starting to think 15% is a low estimate.  Boo.

On the other hand... if this diff adjustment goes smoothly I expect we should see some positive movement in responce to the fact that there were NOT shenanigans behind this, and to start pricing in all the mining coming back online and miners having less needs to sell without the extra CAPEX of moving.

why just one mining difficulty period?  Could there be achieved one more 25% drop in the next period?  Perhaps?  Not sure.

That is my other scenario that I have not talked about as much and I am more positive about. I think we are on the cusp of a face melter... it's just if we see a monster dip (beyond this one) in front of it.

Fair enough.

[Hueristic]

@cAPSLOCK: Would you please elaborate a bit on this "state attack" scenario or point me to some reading or video? Thanks  

(multi) State attack:

-China (and other states or central banks?) decide to bring down hashrate to force the diff adjustment either with cooperative firms, or by force.
-Send out pics of miners "moving" (precedent: pics of people dying in the street from covid, and doors being barred).
-Concurrently stockpile net new miners. this could also be coordinated between multiple state actors.
-Wait for the drop.
-BOOM - Bring on all the miners you control.
-Attempt to fork the chain.
-Blast narratives on Twitter, Reddit and here to divide the community.
-Start the "CDBCs won't be flawed like this" campaign.

Like JayBot points out, I am a little wiggy/fringe.

Thats it I'm out!

In other News, Loki is a pretty cool show.




I think I'm a bit deranged as I like his character and not really Thor and don't like batman but really like the Joker.

Also major Rorschach fan and found the Comedian to be a seriously interesting character.

[Elwar]

Take 1g of Vitamin C every hour all day. That knocked out my COVID in a day.

Uh ... I know there's no such thing as Vitamin C overdose, but that's twice more than the maximum recommended (10 grams per day, some articles say 2 grams per day is the max without side effects) on some studies I read. I just take 1g a day and I'm doing fine. Maybe 2 if I don't forget, and just your typical costco / kirkland brand too.

Any more than 5 to 10 and you're likely to just waste it.

But then again, COVID is a new thing, perhaps that's what is needed ...

Someone with far more expertise than I about vitamins mentioned about doing it once in an hour due to how it is absorbed by the body and how quickly it loses effect (or something along those lines). Basically spreading it out throughout the day is the key.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

Take 1g of Vitamin C every hour all day. That knocked out my COVID in a day.

Uh ... I know there's no such thing as Vitamin C overdose, but that's twice more than the maximum recommended (10 grams per day, some articles say 2 grams per day is the max without side effects) on some studies I read. I just take 1g a day and I'm doing fine. Maybe 2 if I don't forget, and just your typical costco / kirkland brand too.

Any more than 5 to 10 and you're likely to just waste it.

But then again, COVID is a new thing, perhaps that's what is needed ...

Someone with far more expertise than I about vitamins mentioned about doing it once in an hour due to how it is absorbed by the body and how quickly it loses effect (or something along those lines). Basically spreading it out throughout the day is the key.

There is something about the body not absorbing as efficient from pills as it does from food also.

[El duderino_]

I have some groups with friends involved and some new people etc, the ALT-koolaid is strong in many of them...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Thats it I'm out!

In other News, Loki is a pretty cool show.




I think I'm a bit deranged as I like his character and not really Thor and don't like batman but really like the Joker.

Also major Rorschach fan and found the Comedian to be a seriously interesting character.

watching the Boys myself, awesome AF

[lightfoot]

Hut8Mining buys $44 million of miners, and is set to double its hashrate by year-end.
What do you think about this?

Hm, a lot of miners are gonna need repairing....

[Hueristic]

watching the Boys myself, awesome AF

Yeah, it kicked some serious ass alright!

[El duderino_]

watching the Boys myself, awesome AF

Yeah, it kicked some serious ass alright!

Reflects the society…. Worshipping the corrupt ones LoL

[eXPHorizon]

watching the Boys myself, awesome AF

Yeah, it kicked some serious ass alright!

Reflects the society…. Worshipping the corrupt ones LoL

Homelander , awesome series !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1acPmBM7tC0

But i wanna see S v Homelander one day

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I have some groups with friends involved and some new people etc, the ALT-koolaid is strong in many of them...

Hopefully, you are speaking with clarity and not equivocating in your actions or your words with those likely to be distracted and deluded members of your circle without necessarily causing them to fail/refuse or evade talking with you about bitcoin to the extent that you can tolerate such ongoing foolishness for what it is.

For sure, if they have 80% or more of their total crypto in bitcoin, then their fucking around with shitcoins is more understandable.. even if it might still be a bit distracting to their brain and even diluting of what could have been more focused on bitcoin.. but surely peeps do need to attempt to learn their own way and in their own time, which might result with a bit of experimentation that hopefully does not get too far out of hand and risking too much principle in any given time  (gamblers going to gamble, too).

I recall some people in mid to late 2017 who refused to put any allocation in bitcoin, which caused me to conclude that there are some pretty big crazies out there, and some of them might concede and put 20% into what they called bitcoin grandpa coin, and I am thinking that they have not faired too well with those choices, but sure some of them were just in and out kind of investors rather than being serious in any kind of longer term approach.. even though I have never quite waffled in my suggestion that bitcoin should be approached as a longer term investment.. the longer the better, but even with longer term investments, the investor should not be giving discretion to someone else - unless s/he knows that s/he is way too inclined to gamble, so ends up paying some annual fee to advisor to manage those kinds of matters - but even with a money manager (that you should not actually need in bitcoin) the investor still should be calling the shots.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

A Physics Prof Bet Me $10,000 I'm Wrong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCsgoLc_fzI

[philipma1957]

A Physics Prof Bet Me $10,000 I'm Wrong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCsgoLc_fzI

Did you like it?

I could see his point well with the blue wheeled cart and wooden board.