Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

@T3naciousC
Keep selling your $btc at a discount to the big boys so you can buy it back later at a serious premium 😁

So much extreme bullish stuff happening to #bitcoin  nowadays and pleb doesn't seem to look further that number go up or number go down on a 5 minute chart...
https://twitter.com/t3naciousc/status/1410283409482698758?s=21

twitter source says about 90% of china's active btc resources (from miners and traders) are said to be shipped abroad or sold. I guess there is still some range-chopping going on by the last 10%. Once we are through this, btc should go up again. 21st of July is the date the CCP chose as the deadline, afaik. Anybody mining/trading btc will be in big trouble over there in china.
Miners that transfer their hardware to foreign countries (hello, El Salvador...) would profit from the difficulty drop, thanks to their political leaders.
China, you failed.

Some happenings around here, as well: I got an ear infection yesterday, developed a sore throat, mild fatigue, sweating and shortness of breath today.
Covid anitgen saliva test at home was positive, so i went to a testing station, where they tested negative two times swabbing the nostrils. That makes sense, yeah  
They told me they won't do PCR testing on a throat sampled swab, because i don't have fever or dry cough.
Wish me luck, i'll go to rest now and re-test via saliva sample tomorrow.
The infection numbers in my area are very low, so it must have been a lot of bad luck if i actually caught sars-cov-2, though.

Take some Vitamin D and Zinc in the morning. Take 1g of Vitamin C every hour all day. That knocked out my COVID in a day.

Thanks, i weakly remember that from your earlier postings now. I don't tolerate Vit-D well, and take Zinc (25mg picolinate) on a daily basis.
I already went through almost a century of post-viral fatigue, i really don't want to experience anything like that ever again.
I'm also on quercetin and bromelaine, which should both support to tame virus-induced immune system response.
Guess that's why it's mild.

Over and out for today.
@cAPSLOCK: Would you please elaborate a bit on this "state attack" scenario or point me to some reading or video? Thanks 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I think we are bound to get a pretty big move soon.  Maybe this weekend. Up or Down?  Dunno.

Miner fud/reality.
Difficulty adjustment in 236 blocks (<2 days).

I can't get the state attack paranoia out of my damn goofy head.

I hope I am wrong but my spidey senses are really going zoinkers.  Y'all can make fun of me forever if it turns out to be a nothing-burger. I won't mind.  I would rather be crazy than right.  And I still think it's the smaller possibility.

But how on earth is this about to happen and NOT betaken advantage of.  We are about to see a LOT of money on the table.

1.  We can only really hope that the "good guys" have plans and enough resources to counter the "bad guys".
2.  In the WORST case scenario we get two things... a rare BTFD event, and proof (after the dust clears) that Bitcoin cannot be stopped.

Yes... sometimes I have found you, cAPSLOCK, to be an overly skeptical fuck who is unduly focused on fringe theories, but personally (this time does really seem potentially different - and by the way, cAPSLOCK, wasn't it yesterday that you had only given a 15% chance to such a China state attack scenario but you keep talking about it in that post and in subsequent posts which likely implies that you had been considering the odds much higher than 15%, perhaps in the 30% or greater arena?.. I am considering my lil selfie in the 30% or greater arena for this kind of state attack scenario, too), the possibility of a current state attack coming out of China regarding the dickering around with the hash rate is NOT really very fringe, so we should be skeptical about what we are being told regarding the reason for the hashrate drop and if we really are able to get very accurate information out of China regarding what is happening over there... and if there are various preparations in the event that the disappeared hashrate comes rushing back with dominant hashing power,., .and surely if we have a max of 25% drop for a couple of adjustment periods, then it may become more feasible to bring them back online and to have dominant mining power.. furthermore, there seems to have been restrictions in new miners going out from bitmain (not sure if need to look at other sources as well), which those miners well could be still being produced and hoarded in China and/or being set up for mining in China, when the time comes to attack or launch their dumbass coin or whatever other shenanigans might be in the heads of the likely to be sly fucks... they are not completely innocent and straight forward in this.. that would be a less than 15% scenario, no?

Seems to me also, that in the whole scheme of things, we have not been seeing a lot of the supposedly forced to be shut off miners getting shipped out of China from what I have heard (so far), and I surely don't proclaim to be very adept in terms of figuring out how are we supposed to know all of these matters in terms of if there might be some reliable sources in China who are accurately representing what is going on (in terms of moving around miners, complete shutting off and shutting down of miners, ramping up for a new China coin (CBDC), drying up of mining production due to chip shortages .. blah blah blah).. and there are several aspects of the "official" story that just does not add up very well in terms of China really could not be as dumb as they are making themselves out to be in terms of supposedly allowing mining companies to shut down and move their equipment outside of China, are they?  

I am having trouble buying these various stories because in some sense the Chinese are more sly than that.. including the fact that if they are really worried about ongoing dollar hegemony, then some connection to bitcoin seems to be more plausible in terms of having any chance at fighting dollar hegemony including if they were to be strategic in terms of having some bitcoin exposure (which such official story suggest that they are just blindly giving that up) or that they are going to be wanting to connect BTC mining power towards their impending to be issued China coin/CBDC.

My point remains that skepticism in this case seems healthy including watching what is going on with the hashrate too.. maybe another period of downward spiraling after this Friday's difficulty adjustment or no.. or would something happen right before the difficulty adjustment?  I doubt it.. then two more weeks of another spiraling down or would there be major changes to the hashrate after this Friday's difficulty adjustment or could there be some strategic desires for the hashrate to continue to come down for one or two more difficulty periods?

Potentially a pretty good test of bitcoin, no?

[cAPSLOCK]

@cAPSLOCK: Would you please elaborate a bit on this "state attack" scenario or point me to some reading or video? Thanks 

(multi) State attack:

-China (and other states or central banks?) decide to bring down hashrate to force the diff adjustment either with cooperative firms, or by force.
-Send out pics of miners "moving" (precedent: pics of people dying in the street from covid, and doors being barred).
-Concurrently stockpile net new miners. this could also be coordinated between multiple state actors.
-Wait for the drop.
-BOOM - Bring on all the miners you control.
-Attempt to fork the chain.
-Blast narratives on Twitter, Reddit and here to divide the community.
-Start the "CDBCs won't be flawed like this" campaign.

Like JayBot points out, I am a little wiggy/fringe.

[cAPSLOCK]

Potentially a pretty good test of bitcoin, no?

It would be one of the best tests, and if it happens it will end up being seen as the birth of the new financial network and the beginning of the end for the old.

But like all births it could hurt.

And yes, I am starting to think 15% is a low estimate.  Boo.

On the other hand... if this diff adjustment goes smoothly I expect we should see some positive movement in responce to the fact that there were NOT shenanigans behind this, and to start pricing in all the mining coming back online and miners having less needs to sell without the extra CAPEX of moving.

That is my other scenario that I have not talked about as much and I am more positive about. I think we are on the cusp of a face melter... it's just if we see a monster dip (beyond this one) in front of it.

[bitebits]

https://www.swanbitcoin.com/the-diminishing-influence-of-halvings-on-bitcoins-price-geertjancap/


Interesting graph from the article, have not seen one like this before:

- The year-over-year price multiple is plotted in green. These data points are created by dividing the price at a given date by the price one year earlier.
As an example, if the price is twice the price of that one year prior, a value of 2 is shown in the chart.

- The halvings are indicated by the red vertical lines.




From the conclusion of the article:

[...] Peaks will be smaller as the supply shocks themselves become smaller. This implies that price changes will become princi­pally and overwhelm­ingly driven by demand changes alone. Demand changes are not directly tied to halving cycles. This would thus lead to smoother, although still likely extremely high, returns for Bitcoin.

[Dabs]

Take 1g of Vitamin C every hour all day. That knocked out my COVID in a day.

Uh ... I know there's no such thing as Vitamin C overdose, but that's twice more than the maximum recommended (10 grams per day, some articles say 2 grams per day is the max without side effects) on some studies I read. I just take 1g a day and I'm doing fine. Maybe 2 if I don't forget, and just your typical costco / kirkland brand too.

Any more than 5 to 10 and you're likely to just waste it.

But then again, COVID is a new thing, perhaps that's what is needed ...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

@cAPSLOCK: Would you please elaborate a bit on this "state attack" scenario or point me to some reading or video? Thanks 

(multi) State attack:

-China (and other states or central banks?) decide to bring down hashrate to force the diff adjustment either with cooperative firms, or by force.
-Send out pics of miners "moving" (precedent: pics of people dying in the street from covid, and doors being barred).
-Concurrently stockpile net new miners. this could also be coordinated between multiple state actors.
-Wait for the drop.
-BOOM - Bring on all the miners you control.
-Attempt to fork the chain.
-Blast narratives on Twitter, Reddit and here to divide the community.
-Start the "CDBCs won't be flawed like this" campaign.

Like JayBot points out, I am a little wiggy/fringe.

Actually, this way of describing the scenario could be that China's CDBC could end up being the forked version  of bitcoin, like bcash did... bcash got a BIG ass windfall from it's shenanigans of tail-winding upon bitcoin's momentum.,. even bcash SV got some of the same tail-winding, initially, and surely the china CBDC will have more power behind it than the various bcash rag tag teams (so they believe).

Potentially a pretty good test of bitcoin, no?

It would be one of the best tests, and if it happens it will end up being seen as the birth of the new financial network and the beginning of the end for the old.

But like all births it could hurt.

And yes, I am starting to think 15% is a low estimate.  Boo.

On the other hand... if this diff adjustment goes smoothly I expect we should see some positive movement in responce to the fact that there were NOT shenanigans behind this, and to start pricing in all the mining coming back online and miners having less needs to sell without the extra CAPEX of moving.

why just one mining difficulty period?  Could there be achieved one more 25% drop in the next period?  Perhaps?  Not sure.

That is my other scenario that I have not talked about as much and I am more positive about. I think we are on the cusp of a face melter... it's just if we see a monster dip (beyond this one) in front of it.

Fair enough.

[Hueristic]

@cAPSLOCK: Would you please elaborate a bit on this "state attack" scenario or point me to some reading or video? Thanks  

(multi) State attack:

-China (and other states or central banks?) decide to bring down hashrate to force the diff adjustment either with cooperative firms, or by force.
-Send out pics of miners "moving" (precedent: pics of people dying in the street from covid, and doors being barred).
-Concurrently stockpile net new miners. this could also be coordinated between multiple state actors.
-Wait for the drop.
-BOOM - Bring on all the miners you control.
-Attempt to fork the chain.
-Blast narratives on Twitter, Reddit and here to divide the community.
-Start the "CDBCs won't be flawed like this" campaign.

Like JayBot points out, I am a little wiggy/fringe.

Thats it I'm out!

In other News, Loki is a pretty cool show.




I think I'm a bit deranged as I like his character and not really Thor and don't like batman but really like the Joker.

Also major Rorschach fan and found the Comedian to be a seriously interesting character.

[Elwar]

Take 1g of Vitamin C every hour all day. That knocked out my COVID in a day.

Uh ... I know there's no such thing as Vitamin C overdose, but that's twice more than the maximum recommended (10 grams per day, some articles say 2 grams per day is the max without side effects) on some studies I read. I just take 1g a day and I'm doing fine. Maybe 2 if I don't forget, and just your typical costco / kirkland brand too.

Any more than 5 to 10 and you're likely to just waste it.

But then again, COVID is a new thing, perhaps that's what is needed ...

Someone with far more expertise than I about vitamins mentioned about doing it once in an hour due to how it is absorbed by the body and how quickly it loses effect (or something along those lines). Basically spreading it out throughout the day is the key.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

Take 1g of Vitamin C every hour all day. That knocked out my COVID in a day.

Uh ... I know there's no such thing as Vitamin C overdose, but that's twice more than the maximum recommended (10 grams per day, some articles say 2 grams per day is the max without side effects) on some studies I read. I just take 1g a day and I'm doing fine. Maybe 2 if I don't forget, and just your typical costco / kirkland brand too.

Any more than 5 to 10 and you're likely to just waste it.

But then again, COVID is a new thing, perhaps that's what is needed ...

Someone with far more expertise than I about vitamins mentioned about doing it once in an hour due to how it is absorbed by the body and how quickly it loses effect (or something along those lines). Basically spreading it out throughout the day is the key.

There is something about the body not absorbing as efficient from pills as it does from food also.

[El duderino_]

I have some groups with friends involved and some new people etc, the ALT-koolaid is strong in many of them...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Thats it I'm out!

In other News, Loki is a pretty cool show.




I think I'm a bit deranged as I like his character and not really Thor and don't like batman but really like the Joker.

Also major Rorschach fan and found the Comedian to be a seriously interesting character.

watching the Boys myself, awesome AF

[lightfoot]

Hut8Mining buys $44 million of miners, and is set to double its hashrate by year-end.
What do you think about this?

Hm, a lot of miners are gonna need repairing....

[Hueristic]

watching the Boys myself, awesome AF

Yeah, it kicked some serious ass alright!

[El duderino_]

watching the Boys myself, awesome AF

Yeah, it kicked some serious ass alright!

Reflects the society…. Worshipping the corrupt ones LoL

[eXPHorizon]

watching the Boys myself, awesome AF

Yeah, it kicked some serious ass alright!

Reflects the society…. Worshipping the corrupt ones LoL

Homelander , awesome series !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1acPmBM7tC0

But i wanna see S v Homelander one day