Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

It ain't over guys...

The Bears are patting themselves on the back after a well placed news release perfectly timed to drop just as we first hit hard against the $40k resistance BUT... that bubbly boiling feeling is still rising up in the market. I would be surprised if we're not knocking on the $40k door again by end of day today. There's not as much resistance though so I'm calling $42k by midnight. (NY time EDT)

I can't say I had time to grab all the coins I need, but all my orders are filled and I ended up w/ 30% more than I actually invested with a total DCA of $31,131 even though I entered at $36k. So if it's time for UP, my bags are packed. Up we GO!

Why are you wanting to come off as a much BIGGER baller than you likely are?

From my understanding of your situation is that you are largely in a BTC accumulation stage, probably for a decent amount of time into the future... maybe 5 more years or perhaps a couple of BTC cycles (which would be 8 years or more).. what is the rush from your perspective for the BTC price going up?  You are considering selling and playing the up down roulette?

Surely, there are some folks who are early on in their BTC accumulation stage who are wanting to shave off some profits when the BTC price goes up, but very many people who are new to bitcoin (or early in their accumulation stages) and they are attempting to consider bitcoin investment as a long term play, so in that regard, they tend to be quite nervous for the first several years into bitcoin in terms of NOT really wanting to sell much if any of their BTC, even if they might be in profits of 50% or even 100% or more.. and some people even get worried about selling too much BTC after they are 3-5x or even higher level of profits in BTC because they are continuing to consider themselves in BTC accumulating for a several years (at minimum).... in terms of trying to reach certain goals.. and sure, if a guy/gal might have an investment portfolio of $100k to $500k, s/he might want to try to get to $2 million or more in these times before really starting to feel comfortable or cocky.

By the way someone who might be fairly aggressive about bitcoin and has a $100k to $500k investment   in BTC might only have a 10% allocation in bitcoin which is between $10k and $50k - and surely might not be enough to really be considering the BTC allocation to something that they could take for granted... and that is assuming both an aggressive stance such as 10% and also assuming that the investor feels that s/he has reached the 10% allocation levels...

For example, there are a lot of newer investors who might be buying their personal home and buying contributing into a 401k (with employer matching funds) or something like that, and then if their goal is to invest 10% of their income, they might not have much left to invest into bitcoin after making some of those kinds of payments into their 401k and their housing payments.. so even assuming that some younger peeps might be able to feel comfortable assessing their total investment portfolio in the $100k to $500k range, their allocation to bitcoin might still ONLY be a relatively small part of that depending on their other investments or how they might be calculating their other investments.  On a personal level, I have never really been feeling very comfortable to assign a very high value to a housing investment or even a business investment because those kinds of investments are not very liquid and there remains a decent amount of uncertainty regarding the extent to which the assessed value is very easy to extract from the property/business.. so maybe even $100k of value might ONLY be reasonably be assessed as $50k or so until you are able to get the cash into your grubby little hands.

So, in the end, one or two cycles seem to be a kind of minimum prudent level before really getting excited to have the BTC price go flying up..   Sure, we cannot really control (or even know for sure) if the BTC price goes flying up either... yet I still have some troubles considering why any newbie BTC accumulator is going to be getting excited about BTC prices going up, unless valuing the BTC in fiat and/or playing around with the trading to attempt to accumulate through trading, which surely is not tend to be as good of an accumulation strategy as just ongoingly buying...

So yeah, for anyone who is going to be o.k. to start shaving off some of their profits and wanting to use some of that money to buy back BTC, then hopefully they have either reached a kind of high level of accumulation already, yet how are they going to know when to shave off or how much to shave off .. well maybe until they start getting closer to their beginning level of fuck you status of a $2 million goal and they can kind of project their fuck you status.. otherwise, it seems that anyone new to bitcoin is not going to be close to fuck you status, unless s/he was already close to fuck you status before getting into bitcoin.

[HI-TEC99]

[fr4nkthetank]

meh dont worry about spending bitcoin.  I have the equivalent of what...5000$ dogecoin socks, who else can say that ?  Im the richest mofo in the room if you measure it by sock value

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

meh dont worry about spending bitcoin.  I have the equivalent of what...5000$ dogecoin socks, who else can say that ?  Im the richest mofo in the room if you measure it by sock value

You must have bought the pure cotton ones. You can get cheap nasty nylon dogecoin socks from amazon for $10.

Imagine being the guy that ate the bitcoin pizza. One olive of which is now worth $796320.

[eXPHorizon]

meh dont worry about spending bitcoin.  I have the equivalent of what...5000$ dogecoin socks, who else can say that ?  Im the richest mofo in the room if you measure it by sock value

Are you Joking? You actualy got 5000$ worth of Doge Socks?.... Dude... WTH ? 😂

[Mpamaegbu]

My mood right now 👇

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@BitcoinMagazine
REMINDER: you have not missed the bus on #Bitcoin .

Everyone feels this way when they first get in.

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1420085643921797124?s=21

[fr4nkthetank]

come on people, I paid the socks with dogecoin.  the "equivalent" value today is 5000 give or take
and yes I still wear them, and they are comfy
edit: they were like 10$ yeah
edit edit:  Holy shit, that 3 million dollar piece of salami 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

"Onion ring" - we usually just call that onion.

The cheese that stuck to the box probably comes out at 20k.

[vapourminer]

come on people, I paid the socks with dogecoin.  the "equivalent" value today is 5000 give or take
and yes I still wear them, and they are comfy
edit: they were like 10$ yeah
edit edit:  Holy shit, that 3 million dollar piece of salami 

hey at least you can wear them. i bought 10 btc of games from steam (5 games) back when they accepted btc. and thats what ~$400,000 today

and others here make that look lame

we are both pikers lol

[nakamura12]

This is what will happen to a person when watching the price goes up and down within days in time frame.

Luckily, It didn't happened to me when I saw bitcoin increased and then decrease that time. I THINK bitcoin will stay at current price and maybe it will increase on thr next month.
Source of image: https://ahseeit.com//king-include/uploads/2021/01/600dd8f9cddeb-9432691530.jpeg

"Onion ring" - we usually just call that onion.

The cheese that stuck to the box probably comes out at 20k.

We call it cut onion.

[JimboToronto]

meh dont worry about spending bitcoin.  I have the equivalent of what...5000$ dogecoin socks, who else can say that ?  Im the richest mofo in the room if you measure it by sock value

Hardly the richest by sock value:

https://www.coindesk.com/alpacas-the-unofficial-mascot-of-bitcoin

Forster began charging 75 Bitcoins for each pair in February

Sold out almost immediately after Gavin Andresen tweeted about them.

Dogecoin? Sigh.  
______

My first BTC ballcap is worth a lot more than $5k now.  

[friends1980]

Damn, celebrating 4 year membership of this community! Time flies when you're having a ball (or two).

Could this be the right time to open a few threads in the Meta, Beginners and Reputation boards to teach people a few valuable lessons about my experience on the forum, and receive a million billion trillion Merits?

Fugg no.

[nutildah]

Damn, celebrating 4 year membership of this community! Time flies when you're having a ball (or two).

Could this be the right time to open a few threads in the Meta, Beginners and Reputation boards to teach people a few valuable lessons about my experience on the forum, and receive a million billion trillion Merits?

Fugg no.

You're honestly the kind of member who deserves to rank up and I'm not just saying that because of the hat. You're not even wearing a signature. So take my merits, now you're only 300 away from Legendary.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

The last day or so is just noise. The calamitous downtrend remains perfectly intact.

Agree the men of the wall will be crying by Christmas. Sub $10,000 inkoming!!!!!!!

Lots of last minute desperation...

Sorry for your losses

(not really).  

I always liked ramen anyway.

Well, you better up your game.

Sorry to break the newses that you are going to be MOAR richie, whether you like it or not.

hahahaha

You opportunist...    

I will agree with you, that there is a need for BTC prices to stay above $35k for several more days.. more than a week longer in order to show another example once again how uie poo-ie, aka the wannabe sorcerer who happens to be a diptwat, happens to be wrong yet another time - even though you had been right for a decent amount of time (was it two months so far?) and hardly can even credit you with that level of happening to be right either.. because you don't know shit.. you just happen to throw out some nonsense, and every once in a while you happen to be correct. takes a lot of talent for those kinds of maths and sciences, no?

As far as I know that BTC price movements are based on fundamental issues such as countries that legalize or not, regulations on BTC, networking and mining, and many other things.  Regarding yesterday's conversation between EM, Jack, and Cattie, ​​the next day the falling BTC price slowly started to rise, I suspect it was just the effect of their online meeting yesterday.  Have I misjudged the basis of this price movement?

Even though you are suggesting that BTC price moves are based on a variety of factors, then you proclaim that this particular price move is based on "the talk."  Seems as if you are committing the same error that you are striving to suggest that you are not making.

In other words, it is way too prone to error to be trying to proclaim that BTC price moves are pushed because of narrow factors, and mainstream media does this all the time.  Sure, we might have some piece of news that may start to trigger price move in one direction or another, but it is likely better to attempt to figure out more broader reasons, including to consider that if BTC prices have been largely bouncing around in 35% to 55% correction range for a couple of months, and seems that BTC negative sentiment had been building, including the more and more bold stacking of margin shorts, at some point there comes a kind of incentive to force the BTC price UP in order to liquidate some of the margin shorts - and those liquidations can provide more fuel (and incentive to push the BTC price upwards).

Furthermore, if the BTC price has been down for a decently long period of time, there are also likely some folks who have cash sitting on the sidelines, and they are sometimes more than eager to put their money back in, as soon as they witness some kind of breaking out to the UPside.. so there could be a kind of incentive in which momentum causes more momentum, yet whether the momentum is going to run out of steam can be unclear too in terms of how much buying support is keeping up with the price moves up.. and I doubt that "the talk" is going to be enough of an explanatory for whether the time is here to continue UPpity.

And to confirm that we have been in a bull market all along, even if a decent number of folks had been losing confidence in our having had been (still are) in a bull market.  So sure, the loss of confidence can sometimes cause fuel to go UP in bTC price after a certain number of those weak hands have been shaken and perhaps even some losing of confidence that more weak hands are available to be shaken including the conclusion that the easier price direction ends up being UP rather than down.. and how can just "the talk" be enough - even if on the margins to explain such readiness or lack of readiness for the buy support to keep up including a kind of realization that we happen to be in a bull market rather than the erroneous conclusion regarding our supposed bear market status...

Another aspect might be a kind of seeming resolution of some concerns about a mining death spiral, so there are several difficulty periods, including the very last one from a week ago in which there might have been developing some uncertainties regarding the resolution of such ongoing loss of hashpower, but the fact that we ONLY have 3.5 days left in this difficulty period and the hashpower matter seems to be adjusting in the upwards direction (a projection of 3.5% to 4% Up in difficulty as I type this post) and largely showing that bitcoin is likely NOT so vulnerable in the direction of losing hash power and also perhaps some concerns that some kind of state attack could be underway or bitcoin could have become more vulnerable in that direction - causing uncertainty that seems to largely be resolving through a kind of considerable robustedness that is already present in bitcoin but there might be uncertainties until bitcoin is actually put to a kind of extreme test that seems to be showing pretty strong and unambiguous evidence resolving in terms of the ongoing robustedness of our king daddy.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Copetech]

It ain't over guys...
[Edited Out]

Why are you wanting to come off as a much BIGGER baller than you likely are?

From my understanding of your situation is that you are largely in a BTC accumulation stage, probably for a decent amount of time into the future... maybe 5 more years or perhaps a couple of BTC cycles (which would be 8 years or more).. what is the rush from your perspective for the BTC price going up?  You are considering selling and playing the up down roulette?

Surely, there are some folks who are early on in their BTC accumulation stage who are wanting to shave off some profits when the BTC price goes up, but very many people who are new to bitcoin (or early in their accumulation stages) and they are attempting to consider bitcoin investment as a long term play, so in that regard, they tend to be quite nervous for the first several years into bitcoin in terms of NOT really wanting to sell much if any of their BTC, even if they might be in profits of 50% or even 100% or more.. and some people even get worried about selling too much BTC after they are 3-5x or even higher level of profits in BTC because they are continuing to consider themselves in BTC accumulating for a several years (at minimum).... in terms of trying to reach certain goals.. and sure, if a guy/gal might have an investment portfolio of $100k to $500k, s/he might want to try to get to $2 million or more in these times before really starting to feel comfortable or cocky.

By the way someone who might be fairly aggressive about bitcoin and has a $100k to $500k investment   in BTC might only have a 10% allocation in bitcoin which is between $10k and $50k - and surely might not be enough to really be considering the BTC allocation to something that they could take for granted... and that is assuming both an aggressive stance such as 10% and also assuming that the investor feels that s/he has reached the 10% allocation levels...

For example, there are a lot of newer investors who might be buying their personal home and buying contributing into a 401k (with employer matching funds) or something like that, and then if their goal is to invest 10% of their income, they might not have much left to invest into bitcoin after making some of those kinds of payments into their 401k and their housing payments.. so even assuming that some younger peeps might be able to feel comfortable assessing their total investment portfolio in the $100k to $500k range, their allocation to bitcoin might still ONLY be a relatively small part of that depending on their other investments or how they might be calculating their other investments.  On a personal level, I have never really been feeling very comfortable to assign a very high value to a housing investment or even a business investment because those kinds of investments are not very liquid and there remains a decent amount of uncertainty regarding the extent to which the assessed value is very easy to extract from the property/business.. so maybe even $100k of value might ONLY be reasonably be assessed as $50k or so until you are able to get the cash into your grubby little hands.

So, in the end, one or two cycles seem to be a kind of minimum prudent level before really getting excited to have the BTC price go flying up..   Sure, we cannot really control (or even know for sure) if the BTC price goes flying up either... yet I still have some troubles considering why any newbie BTC accumulator is going to be getting excited about BTC prices going up, unless valuing the BTC in fiat and/or playing around with the trading to attempt to accumulate through trading, which surely is not tend to be as good of an accumulation strategy as just ongoingly buying...

So yeah, for anyone who is going to be o.k. to start shaving off some of their profits and wanting to use some of that money to buy back BTC, then hopefully they have either reached a kind of high level of accumulation already, yet how are they going to know when to shave off or how much to shave off .. well maybe until they start getting closer to their beginning level of fuck you status of a $2 million goal and they can kind of project their fuck you status.. otherwise, it seems that anyone new to bitcoin is not going to be close to fuck you status, unless s/he was already close to fuck you status before getting into bitcoin.

I Do Appreciate your concern J1G, but Damn if you aren't a Helluva Hard to Please gripening old curmudgeon!!!

First you have a lil hissy fit over my calling Downity looking trends and being happy to buy cheap corn. Now you have another little bleeding twat-bitch-fest over my calling an UPpity looking trend and saying "Fuckit, UP we Go!" Never once have I said "Yeah! Let's shoot for the Moon!" But my system is working very well by every metric I have judged it by and accumulation has moved along nicely. I'm  better off than I expected to be by this point. (OpSec - I have never stated what amounts I have invested or how many Sats it has got me) BUT, yes, truth be told another month of meandering through low 30's wouldn't be a bad thing for me. (Is that inconsiderate of me to say?) I'm simply trying to work with the cards as they're dealt. We're currently around 6:30ish EDT and bumping off the remaining $40k supports. Was I really that far off with my expectations?

Now as for my current status, yes I'm still early in my accumulation stage and I expect to be playing this system out for another 10+ years (assuming cycles hold to expectations based on past patterns). But fact of the matter is, every dime I'm spending is Fuck You money, and my Fuck You status has very little to do with money anyway. I have my house paid for and $0.00 debt. I live a fairly modest lifestyle and don't really get much joy out of wasting time or money. I have a gorgeous young wife who's also brilliant and engaging, great friends, a good, challenging career. If my BTC system works out I'll be really stoked to have succeeded in this particular game, but if not, Fuck Me oh well, what game shall I play next?

So as to "wanting to come off as a BIGGER baller" sorry if you got that impression, but my wanting is to try to avoid any situation where I end up discussing the size of my balls on an internet forum.

And as to my system of profit taking and acceleration of accumulation at various points in the proclaimed 4 year cycling, you don't wanna talk about it, but thus far it's worked very well in a fairly flat to dippening market and I'm interested in seeing if it continues to behave as expected in a uppity bullrun kind of situation. So yep, "King Daddy" says time for up, I'm ready, let's go! What are you whining about?

BTW it's now nearly 8:00 and we're still bumping against $39.5k resistances leading up to $40k so I MAY have been a little optimistic this morning but I can still see a $42k midnight finish as a possibility even if not so much a likelihood. (I know, I type slow and get distracted easily)

-Cope