Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Does anyone know why GBTC FUD did not affect the price? I was waiting with a little cash but there was no drop in the price.
my last time I bought it was around 29500 and it went up an hour later to around 34,000, it was perfect timing.

Maybe wait till 21st July, something's cooking up

Sure feels like something is cooking.

Actually, right now it feels a lot like the 2018 $6000 level just before the drop to $3000. I hope it is not going to repeat that but the lower highs with solid looking support is exactly what happened then.

I would not consider "exactly" to be a very reasonable way of attempting to make predictions about the future based on past patterns...  

Sure, we could get another 30% to 50% drop from here - and that would be something like $15k to $20k depending on the severity of such a drop...

I will actually agree that $6k support was tested around 6 times between February 2018 and November 2018 when it finally broke.. and we got damned near a 50% drop out of that loss of $6k support that was a pretty BIG ASS surprise to a lot of us... and then the sub $6k lasted for a bit more than 4 months.. to cause additional concerns that the bottom might not be in and the shaking of weak hands.. so gosh.. maybe you are talking me into this?.. hahahahhaha

I am not going to get all glass half full and whiny about this.. and sure if the price goes down it is good to continue to attempt to be prepared (both financially and psychologically) for potentially extreme scenarios and sure, there could be some possible breaking (or at least appearing to be breaking) some of the currently credible BTC price prediction models in order to cause more senses of doom and gloom (of the masses), so sure a premature bear market (or even a greater, seeming to be out-of-this-world BTC price correction) could cause some more shakenings of the weak hands.....

So whether more "down before up" is a necessary condition or something that ends up happening should be something in which we are prepared for (both psychologically and financially) - but whether or not "down before up" ends up happening is something that I would be careful in putting too many eggs in such thinking of certainty basket.. so sure prepare to buy more BTC or just HODL through seems to be the better strategies, rather than selling - even though for sure, peeps are gonna peep... and cannot really stop peeps from buying high and selling low, especially if they have over-invested (and perhaps without hardly any plan except "getting rich quicker" than they have been able to in their previous years), and bear-whale manipulators might be able to sense that there remains more room to shake a few more of the whiny-ass cry babies who are placing more certainty towards down than it deserves (which sure could cause a self-fulfilling prophecy... until it doesn't).  

[1713568355]

1713568355

[1713568355]

1713568355

[1713568355]

1713568355

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Funny thing is that I could not really get the matter out of my head, so I sent my uncle a text and I proposed a "friendly little bet" about the calendar year.

I said that I would give him a 30% headstart because I am nice like that, and I proposed that we make a friendly bet about the price of bitcoin versus the price of stocks (proposing using the DJI), and I said that we could figure out the denominator for each at the beginning of the year, and I suggested that I win the bet if BTC performs at a higher percentage by the end of the calendar year, and he wins the bet if the DJI performs at a higher percentage at the end of the year...

An easy-peasy and straight-forward bet, no?  I have not heard back from him, yet.. but he really does not text very often, so he has that excuse.. so I may have to remind him when I see him in person.. not sure when that will be.  

We would bet something like $5 or some kind of small token amount.. but I gotta hear from him, first.. so that we can settle (agree upon) the denominators of each and the other terms of the proposed calendar year bet.

Through such a bet, I will attempt to determine the level of his conviction (cockiness today) and if he is willing to put his pride on the line for the end of the year.. He's the one who proclaims to "like" calendar year nonsense, and I will go along with his framework... and we will see how it plays out.. I am not really worried about if I lose.. but I want to see if he is going to have some conviction beyond what he says on one day then acts like he forgot that he said it.. blah blah blah.

Well for your sake I hope that he takes the bet as that would probably shut him up for good and when/if he loses you can just tell him that you've done him a favor and shown him that Bitcoin is worth investing in so he may have lost the $5 that you wagered but he now has the proof and the encouragement to trust that Bitcoin is profitable.

I might think about proposing this bet to some of my friends & family see if they bite the bullet when it comes down to it.

I see on my phone that my uncle "read" my texts from yesterday (about a few hours after I sent them), but I still have not heard from him.  

I have been thinking of possible variations of the bet too.. in order that the bet might keep running, so maybe we figure out an amount that is comfortable, but we keep the bet running for something like 5 years, and at the end of each calendar year we measure to see where we are at in terms of comparing bitcoin to the DJI... ...

So maybe we start with $5 or even $50 at the end of 2021, and then each year we multiply the bet (but we continue to use the beginning of 2021 as our starting reference point for the price (percentage) to beat), which is showing our long term conviction starting from a base point (which I feel that would be my giving him a ~30% headstart, too.. and I do not have a problem with that)...

So maybe the bet doubles or triples each year, so it would look like either the 2x, 3x, 5x or perhaps some other multiple and sure the below examples show starting from $5 but maybe add a zero (which would be starting from $50) or use some other starting number ($1, $20, $100 or whatever) to customize the starting point and the multiples to individual "friendly" finances while creating a kind of magnification that emphasizes an importance in thinking about the longer term rather than getting all worked up about short-term nonsense, when in fact my uncle and I are both considering our lil selfies as long term investors, but for some reason, yesterday he seemed to have been putting so much emphasis in short-term nonsense just to make his comparative point and supposedly that his investment in stocks was "beating" bitcoin (at least from his way of framing the matter).

                                2x                                 3x                               5x                                       xxx
End of 2021               $5                                $5                               $5                                      $5 (or some other amount)
End of 2022               $10                              $15                              $25                                    $xxx
End of 2023               $20                              $45                              $125                                  $xxx
End of 2024               $40                              $135                            $625                                  $xxx
End of 2025               $80                              $405                            $3,125                               $xxx

The whole matter of betting or putting a bit of stake behind assertions can still be friendly.. but putting some money where your mouth is can be helpful to showing true conviction, and of course, if the bet amounts are high, there there could be some reason to make sure that any of us would save for the event that we might lose the bet.. and no one of us should be putting all our eggs in one basket, even if we may well be willing to bet in accordance with one direction or another turning out in our favor.

[Saidasun]

I see on my phone that my uncle "read" my texts from yesterday (about a few hours after I sent them), but I still have not heard from him.  

I have been thinking of possible variations of the bet too.. in order that the bet might keep running, so maybe we figure out an amount that is comfortable, but we keep the bet running for something like 5 years, and at the end of each calendar year we measure to see where we are at in terms of comparing bitcoin to the DJI... ...

So maybe we start with $5 or even $50 at the end of 2021, and then each year we multiply the bet (but we continue to use the beginning of 2021 as our starting reference point for the price (percentage) to beat), which is showing our long term conviction starting from a base point (which I feel that would be my giving him a ~30% headstart, too.. and I do not have a problem with that)...

So maybe the bet doubles or triples each year, so it would look like either the 2x, 3x, 5x or perhaps some other multiple and sure the below examples show starting from $5 but maybe add a zero (which would be starting from $50) or use some other starting number ($1, $20, $100 or whatever) to customize the starting point and the multiples to individual "friendly" finances while creating a kind of magnification that emphasizes an importance in thinking about the longer term rather than getting all worked up about short-term nonsense, when in fact my uncle and I are both considering our lil selfies as long term investors, but for some reason, yesterday he seemed to have been putting so much emphasis in short-term nonsense just to make his comparative point and supposedly that his investment in stocks was "beating" bitcoin (at least from his way of framing the matter).

                                2x                                 3x                               5x                                       xxx
End of 2021               $5                                $5                               $5                                      $5 (or some other amount)
End of 2022               $10                              $15                              $25                                    $xxx
End of 2023               $20                              $45                              $125                                  $xxx
End of 2024               $40                              $135                            $625                                  $xxx
End of 2025               $80                              $405                            $3,125                               $xxx

The whole matter of betting or putting a bit of stake behind assertions can still be friendly.. but putting some money where your mouth is can be helpful to showing true conviction, and of course, if the bet amounts are high, there there could be some reason to make sure that any of us would save for the event that we might lose the bet.. and no one of us should be putting all our eggs in one basket, even if we may well be willing to bet in accordance with one direction or another turning out in our favor.

I do not know your uncle but I have found that when it comes to putting their money where their mouth is people do not do it. I doubt he is going to take the $5 bet and will probably shrug it off saying that would be silly. If you were to follow the structure you have outlined above you would probably bankrupt your uncle swiftly

I am probably as bullish as you could find with Bitcoin but I agree with your point of not putting all your eggs in one basket. I have tried to invest in various different outlets and not just Bitcoin and no I am not talking about shitcoins. I'm talking about stocks and Bitcoin but Bitcoin has for a fact been the money maker if we look at the profit over the years. I have not taken my investment out of Bitcoin yet but if I did I would be up more than 500% and I definitely cannot say the same for the stocks that I have invested in.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I am feeling like I am being "used" as a ChartBuddy breaker-upper..


 

20s here we come. Sigh.

Not quite yet.

Hold on to ur lil horsies...

Don't be prejudging lillie fiend.

On the other hand, if "we" do go below $30k (ie into the $20ks), then sure at that point it would be fair enough to call it.. otherwise, u are a premature dweeb... especially when rooting for DOWNity and suggesting that it is certain, even though it has not happened... yet.

20s here we come. Sigh.

You too?

 

Ow!!!!

That does not look good, either.  Twice.

this software is only used on dissidents and reporters....right?  right guys....?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/19/first-thing-human-rights-activists-dissidents-and-journalists-targeted-by-pegasus-spyware


faraday cage everything i guess...ffs

Hey ToxicMoxic!!!!

You are back!!!!

Not just BTC that looks a bit shit, legacy markets are having trouble too. I wonder if we'll be getting a broad correction soon, or if the FED will preempt it with some more brrrr.

moar froth

In a coordinated announcement, the White House and governments in Europe and Asia identified China's Ministry of State Security, the sprawling and secretive civilian intelligence agency, with using "criminal contract hackers" to conduct a range of destabilizing activities around the world for personal profit, including the Microsoft hack, according to a senior US administration official.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/19/politics/us-china-cyber-offensive/index.html

You know, everything seems to be heading in a real shitty direction. I was going to move into the rural area a little when I buy a house, no more than 45min out from the city, but I feel I should move much further out now and become completely independant on my land. The world is heading towards a dark place and has been for a good while now.

I hope that you keep an internet connection in order that we won't lose our regular feed of our constant, persistent, ongoing, informative, negative nancy-ism updates - #nohomo.

 

[El duderino_]

[cAPSLOCK]

If they paid for the electricity and kept everything else legal, and mining was profitable, they could have kept mining with no authorities bothering them for a long time. Eventually, the power company will inspect places that have very high usage to find out what's going on, even if they were being paid accordingly.

I assume there has to be a law in Malaysia making Bitcoin mining equipment itself illegal, because it does not makes sense for the police to destroy legal mining equipment due to stealing electricity.

The whole story is bullshit. They cant destroy anything before there is a conviction and case is closed.
There is proper machinery to destroy something a road-roller is not it. https://youtu.be/5n-n-i9JqEI

That thing is HORRIFYING/BEAUTIFUL.

[Saidasun]

Oh boy lets get ready for some waves in the next couple of days. I am interested in what Elon Musk has to say for Bitcoin and either way it could effect the price for a little bit but I really hope he does not start talking about Dogecoin and pumps that it would be a joke.

[cAPSLOCK]

Since we are almost in a double chartbuddy time, can someone please explain to me the logic behind this?



And if a vaccinated person has to isolate, got his mix with the “Green Pass” thing (certification of vaccination or negative swab to access some kind of services?)

Well, I just got back from a trip to the Southern US, and let me say I am very glad I've been vaccinated. These people are idiots, and with a 30-40% vaccination rate I could hear the coughing around. Stay out of enclosed spaces with them, and keep your P100 handy if needed....

I think the US is going to be kind of funny in the next month. So far I seem to be fine, but am watching my temps closely.

I gotta admit.  There wedge caused by this virus is more interesting to me than the virus itself.

The world is so polarized by it.  This leads to bad things, mark my words.

[Saidasun]

I gotta admit.  There wedge caused by this virus is more interesting to me than the virus itself.

The world is so polarized by it.  This leads to bad things, mark my words.

I would prefer if Bitcoin would go up by like 100k so I could buy me some underground fully nuclear proof bunker before shit hits the fan too hard.

[philipma1957]

Since we are almost in a double chartbuddy time, can someone please explain to me the logic behind this?



And if a vaccinated person has to isolate, got his mix with the “Green Pass” thing (certification of vaccination or negative swab to access some kind of services?)

Well, I just got back from a trip to the Southern US, and let me say I am very glad I've been vaccinated. These people are idiots, and with a 30-40% vaccination rate I could hear the coughing around. Stay out of enclosed spaces with them, and keep your P100 handy if needed....

I think the US is going to be kind of funny in the next month. So far I seem to be fine, but am watching my temps closely.

I gotta admit.  There wedge caused by this virus is more interesting to me than the virus itself.

The world is so polarized by it.  This leads to bad things, mark my words.

   It is simple enough the antivaxers will be killed in huge numbers over the next three or 4 variants, Delta in the USA now has a 992 non taxed to 8 vexed death rate last week.

  Once Epsilon comes along the death rate will grow to 1980 to 20 anti-v to pro-v death rate.

THEN ANOTHER variant  WILL COME AFTER THAT.

 I have been telling my antivaxer friends time and time again the gov and not just the USA is looking at ways to cull the protesting fighting antivaxers. Like the ones that attacked the capital in DC.  Trump's a trojan horse in the camp of antivaxers/freedom fighter and anti-vaxers/freedom fighters will get killed off in huge numbers over the next few years.

But I can not convince them to hide their anti vax ideas it is sad so sad. The death tolls will be bigly very soon.

[JayJuanGee]

I gotta admit.  There wedge caused by this virus is more interesting to me than the virus itself.

The world is so polarized by it.  This leads to bad things, mark my words.

I would prefer if Bitcoin would go up by like 100k so I could buy me some underground fully nuclear proof bunker before shit hits the fan too hard.

Gosh.. you are starting to sound like somac.., Saidasun,  and sure there could be some nuclear bomb ramifications of our ongoing craziness.. because resetting of various financial and governmental systems do not tend to be completely peaceful - even if bitcoin might allow for some mechanisms for even countries to transition out of the various messes that they have been making and doubling down upon their various levels of dumb (corruption?  running off with the wealth from the sinking ship? etc).

Regarding the BTC price going up another $100k from here, that seems pretty likely in either this cycle or the next one.. and to me it seems more likely in this cycle rather than the next one.. but hey, I am not really the kind of guy that puts too many eggs in such exorbitant changes in such a short period of time, even though we have frequently been experiencing such exorbitant changes in bitcoin prices on a fairly regular basis in the past 10 years or so.. so any prudent person should be striving to have some preparation in such possible (probably "likely" is a better word?) exorbitant BTC price scenarios - without necessarily using high levels of leverage that may well not be necessary in order to either become richie or to become less poor (or some variation in between), even though some leverage can be complementary to any kind of investment strategy that attempts to focus on value and fundamentals and production rather than consumption value.

There are so many longer-term investors, business people and even normies who have used leverage to advance way more in the world than they would have been able to accomplish through normal means.  There are also some peeps who started out rich in life and made their lil selfies more poor and faster through leverage.. hahahahaha..

Use your leverage wisely, if you are going to use it (referring to the general "you" not the Saidasun you).  

Since we are almost in a double chartbuddy time, can someone please explain to me the logic behind this?



And if a vaccinated person has to isolate, got his mix with the “Green Pass” thing (certification of vaccination or negative swab to access some kind of services?)

Well, I just got back from a trip to the Southern US, and let me say I am very glad I've been vaccinated. These people are idiots, and with a 30-40% vaccination rate I could hear the coughing around. Stay out of enclosed spaces with them, and keep your P100 handy if needed....

I think the US is going to be kind of funny in the next month. So far I seem to be fine, but am watching my temps closely.

I gotta admit.  There wedge caused by this virus is more interesting to me than the virus itself.

The world is so polarized by it.  This leads to bad things, mark my words.

   It is simple enough the antivaxers will be killed in huge numbers over the next three or 4 variants, Delta in the USA now has a 992 non taxed to 8 vexed death rate last week.

  Once Epsilon comes along the death rate will grow to 1980 to 20 anti-v to pro-v death rate.

THEN ANOTHER variant  WILL COME AFTER THAT.

 I have been telling my antivaxer friends time and time again the gov and not just the USA is looking at ways to cull the protesting fighting antivaxers. Like the ones that attacked the capital in DC.  Trump's a trojan horse in the camp of antivaxers/freedom fighter and anti-vaxers/freedom fighters will get killed off in huge numbers over the next few years.

But I can not convince them to hide their anti vax ideas it is sad so sad. The death tolls will be bigly very soon.

Gosh.. this is a pretty extreme viewpoint coming from a seemingly kind of elderly family man fella like ur lil selfie, philip.

In udder words.... holey moley (you're sounding a wee bit like Arriemoller).

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

Since we are almost in a double chartbuddy time, can someone please explain to me the logic behind this?



And if a vaccinated person has to isolate, got his mix with the “Green Pass” thing (certification of vaccination or negative swab to access some kind of services?)

Well, I just got back from a trip to the Southern US, and let me say I am very glad I've been vaccinated. These people are idiots, and with a 30-40% vaccination rate I could hear the coughing around. Stay out of enclosed spaces with them, and keep your P100 handy if needed....

I think the US is going to be kind of funny in the next month. So far I seem to be fine, but am watching my temps closely.

I gotta admit.  There wedge caused by this virus is more interesting to me than the virus itself.

The world is so polarized by it.  This leads to bad things, mark my words.

   It is simple enough the antivaxers will be killed in huge numbers over the next three or 4 variants, Delta in the USA now has a 992 non taxed to 8 vexed death rate last week.

  Once Epsilon comes along the death rate will grow to 1980 to 20 anti-v to pro-v death rate.

THEN ANOTHER variant  WILL COME AFTER THAT.

 I have been telling my antivaxer friends time and time again the gov and not just the USA is looking at ways to cull the protesting fighting antivaxers. Like the ones that attacked the capital in DC.  Trump's a trojan horse in the camp of antivaxers/freedom fighter and anti-vaxers/freedom fighters will get killed off in huge numbers over the next few years.

But I can not convince them to hide their anti vax ideas it is sad so sad. The death tolls will be bigly very soon.

I'm a hardcore pro-vaxxer and vaccinated myself (Pfizer) but in fact new variants are getting less and less deadly. More contagious, yes but less deadly. And in year or two Covid will turn into common flu... 

[serveria.com]

Does anyone know why GBTC FUD did not affect the price? I was waiting with a little cash but there was no drop in the price.
my last time I bought it was around 29500 and it went up an hour later to around 34,000, it was perfect timing.

Maybe wait till 21st July, something's cooking up

Sure feels like something is cooking.

Actually, right now it feels a lot like the 2018 $6000 level just before the drop to $3000. I hope it is not going to repeat that but the lower highs with solid looking support is exactly what happened then.

I would not consider "exactly" to be a very reasonable way of attempting to make predictions about the future based on past patterns...  

Sure, we could get another 30% to 50% drop from here - and that would be something like $15k to $20k depending on the severity of such a drop...

I will actually agree that $6k support was tested around 6 times between February 2018 and November 2018 when it finally broke.. and we got damned near a 50% drop out of that loss of $6k support that was a pretty BIG ASS surprise to a lot of us... and then the sub $6k lasted for a bit more than 4 months.. to cause additional concerns that the bottom might not be in and the shaking of weak hands.. so gosh.. maybe you are talking me into this?.. hahahahhaha

I am not going to get all glass half full and whiny about this.. and sure if the price goes down it is good to continue to attempt to be prepared (both financially and psychologically) for potentially extreme scenarios and sure, there could be some possible breaking (or at least appearing to be breaking) some of the currently credible BTC price prediction models in order to cause more senses of doom and gloom (of the masses), so sure a premature bear market (or even a greater, seeming to be out-of-this-world BTC price correction) could cause some more shakenings of the weak hands.....

So whether more "down before up" is a necessary condition or something that ends up happening should be something in which we are prepared for (both psychologically and financially) - but whether or not "down before up" ends up happening is something that I would be careful in putting too many eggs in such thinking of certainty basket.. so sure prepare to buy more BTC or just HODL through seems to be the better strategies, rather than selling - even though for sure, peeps are gonna peep... and cannot really stop peeps from buying high and selling low, especially if they have over-invested (and perhaps without hardly any plan except "getting rich quicker" than they have been able to in their previous years), and bear-whale manipulators might be able to sense that there remains more room to shake a few more of the whiny-ass cry babies who are placing more certainty towards down than it deserves (which sure could cause a self-fulfilling prophecy... until it doesn't).  

A further 30-50% drop would mean we're in a bear market. Then we should get ready for another BTC winter. But 2013 scenario is far more likely imho as there was no blowoff top. 

[Philipma1957cellphone]

Since we are almost in a double chartbuddy time, can someone please explain to me the logic behind this?



And if a vaccinated person has to isolate, got his mix with the “Green Pass” thing (certification of vaccination or negative swab to access some kind of services?)

Well, I just got back from a trip to the Southern US, and let me say I am very glad I've been vaccinated. These people are idiots, and with a 30-40% vaccination rate I could hear the coughing around. Stay out of enclosed spaces with them, and keep your P100 handy if needed....

I think the US is going to be kind of funny in the next month. So far I seem to be fine, but am watching my temps closely.

I gotta admit.  There wedge caused by this virus is more interesting to me than the virus itself.

The world is so polarized by it.  This leads to bad things, mark my words.

   It is simple enough the antivaxers will be killed in huge numbers over the next three or 4 variants, Delta in the USA now has a 992 non taxed to 8 vexed death rate last week.

  Once Epsilon comes along the death rate will grow to 1980 to 20 anti-v to pro-v death rate.

THEN ANOTHER variant  WILL COME AFTER THAT.

 I have been telling my antivaxer friends time and time again the gov and not just the USA is looking at ways to cull the protesting fighting antivaxers. Like the ones that attacked the capital in DC.  Trump's a trojan horse in the camp of antivaxers/freedom fighter and anti-vaxers/freedom fighters will get killed off in huge numbers over the next few years.

But I can not convince them to hide their anti vax ideas it is sad so sad. The death tolls will be bigly very soon.

I'm a hardcore pro-vaxxer and vaccinated myself (Pfizer) but in fact new variants are getting less and less deadly. More contagious, yes but less deadly. And in year or two Covid will turn into common flu... 

I am  vaxed my wife almost died from covid in Jan 2020. We both had it very early.

Personally I get that many anti vaxxers dont trust the gov.

But the math is showing vaxxer is not getting it and not vaxxed is getting it.

I am 64  I have diet controlled my type 2 diabetes  but I still vaxxed and do not regret doing it. As I do not think I could diet away rabies for instance I figure I won't worry and vax for this.

[Toxic2040]

I am feeling like I am being "used" as a ChartBuddy breaker-upper..


 

seen a few four baggers over the last dozen pages or so...you are lacking in the breaker-upper department juansnowgee   

that and all the other bs going on...makes one wonder if this timeline needs to be pruned or not...


-----------

Hey ToxicMoxic!!!!

You are back!!!!

-----------

I dont really know what is going to happen...nobody does...and even tho i say that quite often i can still make a few educated guesses...if investors keep looking at bitcoin as if it were a legacy stock..they will get burned...badly imo

anyway...carry on

p.s.  old hat for many but many good questions asked and answered   #dyor

speaking of bitcoin from aantonop on youtube
How and Why Governments Lie about Inflation

[infofront]

Hello gentlemen!

I've been trying to spend time away from here, and trying to forget about bitcoin for a few months. These periods are depressing for me if my mind remains bitcoin-centric. Better to spend time outside, enjoying the beautiful weather.

[Saidasun]

Hello gentlemen!

I've been trying to spend time away from here, and trying to forget about bitcoin for a few months. These periods are depressing for me if my mind remains bitcoin-centric. Better to spend time outside, enjoying the beautiful weather.

You have to have at least a small amount of wall observer topic in your life though


*as recommended by fictional doctors.