Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

If you're waiting for a bear market, you might be waiting a long time.

It seems that Raja_MBZ is waiting for the BTC spot price to meet the 200-week moving average, and we know that currently, the 200-week moving average is ONLY a little bit above $18k... Furthermore, it seems that the BTC spot price is very unlikely to hit the 200-week moving average before we are actually in a decently extended bear market...

Sure it is true that the BTC spot price did go below the 200-week moving average in March 2020 (at that time, the 200-week moving average was at about $5k).. but that seems to have been a kind of uniquely rare liquidity event that none of us should be counting on very high odds of actually occurring at any time soon in the near future.

Positive for the last 7 days atm, nice!

that itching/burning sensation?

what are YOU talking about?
...i was about the btc price as we are at WO, not an STD, lol.

Speak for ur lil selfie.

[Biodom]

... very important concepts elucidated in this interview, Jason Lowery appears to be as visionary as they come in the bitcoin field

https://youtu.be/dqt23rVxmpY?t=3565

... proof-of-energy (energy production power projection) as a means for projecting superior power to back monetary units will be a huge evolutionary leap over proof-of-war, military power projection backed monetary units ... which has reached it's ultimate stalemate in nuclear mutually-assured-destruction endpoint anyway)

... the new accounting will be joules/sat not bombs/dollar

... thesis is about "mutually assured preservation"

... talks about and positive-sum games where everybody wins, not winner takes all, aka Nash equilibriums, everybody wins when homo-sapiens adopt bitcoin

No doubt.  Great advantage is afforded those who can see farther into the future.  He is still very young.  He will be a very wealthy, and possibly powerful man.

yes, an interesting fella.

@jjg...something is not computing right again...an urgent upgrade is needed.

[cAPSLOCK]

Heck yeah.

Undoubtedly WO is the most active thread in the Bitcointalk forum.
Here is the Monthly Overview Comparison of the WO Thread.

It reminds me of when I used to do this:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55315921#msg55315921

I assume You must be busy nowadays. I think I can continue your unfinished work if you don't mind.

I want to say something about WO Thread. I am active here for the last 40+ days. To be honest I have never been welcomed here but some of you guys helped me a lot and teach me many things.

IDK if you guys will be surprised or not, I thought you were all guys from the same country, same city and you all know each other. That's why you guys talking to each other only. I was posting 10+ posts a day for the first few days and I remember I said "Guys, am I invisible today?" Because I was posting here and nobody cares. No one ever replies to me. After that, JJG Quotes me and he said Yeah, You are annoying. I did argue with him but that makes no sense cause that was true that I am annoying (IDK if I am still annoying). So I stepped down slowly and post less here. Yesterday, A member knocked on me and ask how can I make friends on WO thread? Are they all from the same city and they know each other? (What I was thinking before). I said nope, just be active and make some good posts. Do you guys know why he asked me that? He posted a few times and he didn't get any replies from anyone. I don't think the WO thread is for Legendaries and Heroes. But look at the WO Thread. There are only Legendaries and Heroes. No one pays attention to low-ranked members until he is recognized.

Anyways, I am sorry if I hurt you guys.

What you are describing is human nature.  You are new here... I too am newer here than many others.  I have been on this FORUM for over 10 years, but came initially as a poker player, and posted primarily on the thread for the 'Seals with Clubs" poker site (now defunct, replaced by it's successor "Swcpoker" which I really do not play at much anymore since they decided to accept BCASH rather than simply implement lightning. Bad move).

But many of the people here are like a virtual family.  Complete with the annoying loud uncle, the brother in law with the shady business idea, the one with a drug habit, and the one that would be better off locked in the loony bin.

And the people here have earned the ability to be recognized by the others.  Is it worth the time and trouble?  You tell me.  I think so, and I hope to meet some of these folks in person some day.

I know you have even received some merits here.  I have sent a few, and I am sure others have as well.

It's up to you naim.  Stay and earn a place among the Watchers of the Wall, or laugh at us and leave to find a community more to your liking.

But this forum is also populated by scammers.  And from time to time they come to this thread.  Some begging for money, some trying to find out personal details for the members here.

And some are trolls who come just to annoy/entertain.

So if you find this thread intersting, then visit from time to time.  Read the posts.  Respond to the ones you find interesting.  Disagree with those you think are wrong.  Be respectful, and make yourself a valuable member of the community.

[cAPSLOCK]

Can we have our little playground?
I hope so.

I would love to hear a nice and NEW story about what we can do with bitcoin.

I still cannot really comprehend what that military dude who @MA linked to was talking about.
Few examples below.
He said something like: "bitcoin is human antlers"-to simplify meaning those with more bitcoin would "dominate" those without.
Interesting, but a bit of an outlier thought.
Also compares btc/watts with current situation of using lives to protect property.
The former is superior as per his position.
Another: "Bitcoin is a defensive network", "It is defending people who decided to use this network to hold their property (in btc)".
Using watts instead of lives to protect property.
Quite interesting.

He basically makes the point that Bitcoin is revolutionary as it move the battle that all animals engage in into the pure form of math and energy and away from kinetic/physical violence.  It's pretty deep, and correct, in my opinion.

The idea is the things at the top of his drawing have to be defended with flesh and blood, while the lower half is a new sort of "property" that we can COORDINATE to defend with power and consensus. 

I OFTEN think about how this fourm and particularly this thread (perhaps?) will be studied by future generations who find it interesting to see what we were thinking before the rest of the world even had a CLUE about the change Bitcoin brought.

For them, it's hindsight.  For us it's foresight, and even we "early adopters" do not really understand how big the paradigm shift Bitcoin is bringing will be.  They will be fascinated when they see us discovering certain aspects of what the Bitcoin network is destined to become as we went along, and also some of the mistakes we made along the way.

[Hueristic]

Positive for the last 7 days atm, nice!

that itching/burning sensation?

what are YOU talking about?
...i was about the btc price as we are at WO, not an STD, lol.

One CAN lead to the other!

Don't worry, pretty sure they make a cream for that...

Or a scalpel.

[Biodom]

A probing question that may be discussed in hypothetical if someone does not want to divulge their actual status vs that territory.
This is only relevant to US inhabitants. I was looking into Puerto Rico tax heaven situation.
So far, the answer for me is in the negative. Why?

1. It only refers to taxes on gains made AFTER you move there.
2. You have to physically be there 183 days a year or more.
3. A pretty steep fees at 20-25K/year per nose (participant).
4. Real estate in desirable places in PR is VERY expensive.
5. It is hot and humid with lots of RE upkeep.

Advantage-almost no taxes, however, in US, there is NO cap gains taxes up to 80K/year for a family , so you may peel off that much a year and not pay a penny.
For 80-501K-15%, not too bad either.
Taken together with getting cash via borrowing against your satoshis makes the tax bill less relevant.

Thoughts?

[Hueristic]

This will become Larry Virdens famous last words.

[philipma1957]

A probing question that may be discussed in hypothetical if someone does not want to divulge their actual status vs that territory.
This is only relevant to US inhabitants. I was looking into Puerto Rico tax heaven situation.
So far, the answer for me is in the negative. Why?

1. It only refers to taxes on gains made AFTER you move there.
2. You have to physically be there 183 days a year or more.
3. A pretty steep fees at 20-25K/year per nose (participant).
4. Real estate in desirable places in PR is VERY expensive.
5. It is hot and humid with lots of RE upkeep.

Advantage-almost no taxes, however, in US, there is NO cap gains taxes up to 80K/year for a family , so you may peel off that much a year and not pay a penny.
For 80-501K-15%, not too bad either.
Taken together with getting cash via borrowing against your satoshis makes the tax bill less relevant.

Thoughts?

Do you speak spanish well?   If you don't speak it well don't move there.

Also and don't answer this if it is not saving you 100k a year or more for the rest of your life why bother.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[naim027]

Heck yeah.

Undoubtedly WO is the most active thread in the Bitcointalk forum.
Here is the Monthly Overview Comparison of the WO Thread.

It reminds me of when I used to do this:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55315921#msg55315921

I assume You must be busy nowadays. I think I can continue your unfinished work if you don't mind.

I want to say something about WO Thread. I am active here for the last 40+ days. To be honest I have never been welcomed here but some of you guys helped me a lot and teach me many things.

IDK if you guys will be surprised or not, I thought you were all guys from the same country, same city and you all know each other. That's why you guys talking to each other only. I was posting 10+ posts a day for the first few days and I remember I said "Guys, am I invisible today?" Because I was posting here and nobody cares. No one ever replies to me. After that, JJG Quotes me and he said Yeah, You are annoying. I did argue with him but that makes no sense cause that was true that I am annoying (IDK if I am still annoying). So I stepped down slowly and post less here. Yesterday, A member knocked on me and ask how can I make friends on WO thread? Are they all from the same city and they know each other? (What I was thinking before). I said nope, just be active and make some good posts. Do you guys know why he asked me that? He posted a few times and he didn't get any replies from anyone. I don't think the WO thread is for Legendaries and Heroes. But look at the WO Thread. There are only Legendaries and Heroes. No one pays attention to low-ranked members until he is recognized.

Anyways, I am sorry if I hurt you guys.

What you are describing is human nature.  You are new here... I too am newer here than many others.  I have been on this FORUM for over 10 years, but came initially as a poker player, and posted primarily on the thread for the 'Seals with Clubs" poker site (now defunct, replaced by it's successor "Swcpoker" which I really do not play at much anymore since they decided to accept BCASH rather than simply implement lightning. Bad move).

But many of the people here are like a virtual family.  Complete with the annoying loud uncle, the brother in law with the shady business idea, the one with a drug habit, and the one that would be better off locked in the loony bin.

And the people here have earned the ability to be recognized by the others.  Is it worth the time and trouble?  You tell me.  I think so, and I hope to meet some of these folks in person some day.

I know you have even received some merits here.  I have sent a few, and I am sure others have as well.

It's up to you naim.  Stay and earn a place among the Watchers of the Wall, or laugh at us and leave to find a community more to your liking.

But this forum is also populated by scammers.  And from time to time they come to this thread.  Some begging for money, some trying to find out personal details for the members here.

And some are trolls who come just to annoy/entertain.

So if you find this thread intersting, then visit from time to time.  Read the posts.  Respond to the ones you find interesting.  Disagree with those you think are wrong.  Be respectful, and make yourself a valuable member of the community.

Thank you very much. To be honest, You are the coolest guy I have ever met in this forum. I appreciate your approach to newbies. Most of the time people say everyone is welcome to post here. I know that. But, if you look at their posts, they (not everyone) talk in attacking mode instead of guide. I don't know why they want to create chaos. I grew up in a kind of family that I never heard anyone ever say "Fuck". I live in a society where everyone is humble enough and we are not used to bad words. To be honest, I learned that things from Hollywood movies and the internet people. Recently I figured out that, they don't mind these words. I am trying to adjust with them. I only use that kind of word when I am angry.

Anyway, Thanks again for your beautiful words.

[Shamm]

I suspect that a non-reaction does not even mean that no one cares.  More importantly, it seems quite lame that members are going to start to expect that they have to get a reaction to every post that they make.. Gosh, if I had to delete all of my posts that did not get reactions, I would be left with only a few posts (relatively speaking)...

Ows I feel you, and thanks for the response.
Anyways I'll make a post here from now on thanks for the permission.
I think all the active posters here are a good person


[Edited]

Thank you very much. To be honest, You are the coolest guy I have ever met in this forum. I appreciate your approach to newbies. Most of the time people say everyone is welcome to post here. I know that. But, if you look at their posts, they (not everyone) talk in attacking mode instead of guide. I don't know why they want to create chaos. I grew up in a kind of family that I never heard anyone ever say "Fuck". I live in a society where everyone is humble enough and we are not used to bad words. To be honest, I learned that things from Hollywood movies and the internet people. Recently I figured out that, they don't mind these words. I am trying to adjust with them. I only use that kind of word when I am angry.

Anyway, Thanks again for your beautiful words.

I think all user here in the forum is cool, helpful, and generous  but we do not know them yet that's why we can say that some of them are better than others but for me we are equal here and we are all friends.

[shahzadafzal]

So this happened earlier today.

Official account of Indian PM Naredra Modi with 73million follower got hack and guess what hacker posted?




Later they denied going to the future this early.

[savetherainforest]

Here is one more image i made out in my free time :



These little dips again are just a step back to pull price slingshot with more pressure to hit hard and break the $100k target.If you are holding it then profits flood are coming your way and if not don't stand in between because btc is going to take all shitcoiners and their useless talks away within one hard hit.

That's like a trippy chart-meme thingy going on there.

We going up but we going down, but down is up!  

[shahzadafzal]

It reminds me when I used to do this:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55315921#msg55315921

While going through above fillippone's old post saw this...

MS Satoshi
Oh yes, I bought a cruise ship
The Crypto Cruise Ship

I mean The Crypto Cruise Ship??? It says Crypto and no one bats an eye... imagine someone share this today and what if this new wanna be naim027 does this and oh boy we will see how the shit gets loose... JJG how did you let it go?

So I think Crypto is ok if we are talking about bitcoin only and no other sh*t is involved?

[naim027]

I mean The Crypto Cruise Ship??? It says Crypto and no one bats an eye... imagine someone share this today and what if this new wanna be naim027 does this and oh boy we will see how the shit gets loose... JJG how did you let it go?

So I think Crypto is ok if we are talking about bitcoin only and no other sh*t is involved?

Dang bro. You stepped into a Trap. I am hearing the JJGs Keyboard sound. I remember I just said "Crypto" Analyst PlanB. OMG, He wrote a news report about the difference between Crypto Analyst and Bitcoin Analyst.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

@jjg...something is not computing right again...an urgent upgrade is needed.

Seems that you used the term "we," no?

I mean The Crypto Cruise Ship??? It says Crypto and no one bats an eye... imagine someone share this today and what if this new wanna be naim027 does this and oh boy we will see how the shit gets loose... JJG how did you let it go?

So I think Crypto is ok if we are talking about bitcoin only and no other sh*t is involved?

Dang bro. You stepped into a Trap. I am hearing the JJGs Keyboard sound. I remember I just said "Crypto" Analyst PlanB. OMG, He wrote a news report about the difference between Crypto Analyst and Bitcoin Analyst.

Poor lil fella.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

The 1st episode of Expanse, Season 6 is out on Prime..pretty sweet.
They are releasing it peace-meal this time.

Maybe btc will break 50K tomorrow night?

[dragonvslinux]

If you're waiting for a bear market, you might be waiting a long time.

It seems that Raja_MBZ is waiting for the BTC spot price to meet the 200-week moving average, and we know that currently, the 200-week moving average is ONLY a little bit above $18k... Furthermore, it seems that the BTC spot price is very unlikely to hit the 200-week moving average before we are actually in a decently extended bear market...

Well yes, this would be the issue with waiting for that MA. It's simply not something to wait for unless there is a bear market, which Bitcoin is not in by means of most analysis, nor fundaments.

Each to their own I guess, let them wait a while? I imagine they'll eventually get to buy the 200-week MA again, theoretically, with a lot of patience. But at a lower price? Maybe not.

Looking at the current trajectory, that'd be around $35K in a years time, probably $70K in a two years time, maybe even $100K+ in three years.

It's like selling at $5K in 2017. Sure you get to buy back at the 200 Week MA at $3.2K for a small discount, but you missed a lot, another 4x.

In the meantime, the 200 Week MA accelerates from $750 to $1.5K before the bull market is even over. You're only left to wonder why.

Though there is very simple reasoning for this occurring; bear market candles are being replaced by bull market candles.

Imagine selling at $50K before price goes to $200K then buying back at $32K. That'd be a cool story to tell the kids.

PS - Fun fact: at the moment that MA's $8K candles are being replaced by $50K candles. It hasn't even started knocking out 2018 $6Ks yet, nor $3-5K range... so it's due to accelerate for another year as far as I can tell, as long as price stays above $45K. Similar to December 2020 when it started to rise faster. It was less because price was back at $20K, but because $1K candles were being replaced with them.

Sure it is true that the BTC spot price did go below the 200-week moving average in March 2020 (at that time, the 200-week moving average was at about $5k).. but that seems to have been a kind of uniquely rare liquidity event that none of us should be counting on very high odds of actually occurring at any time soon in the near future.

I think the 4-year cycle disciples are cashing out and/or panicking, and the blockchain data makes a good argument for this. Currently 2-3 year hodlers have dropped off during the dump (14% to 11%), which is pretty significant. While other hodler groups remain relatively the same, with shorter-term hodlers increasing. They've seen what December is bringing and they're not impressed lol.

March 2020 was also technically still in a bear market, at least with a lower macro high and a 50% drop already. So although a rare liquidity event, it's not something to wait patiently for in a bull market.

Though I do admire Tone Vays for waiting from $5K to $14K before buying at $4.5K. Most of the bulls had turned to bears by then, but he had finally turned bullish and bought the dip!