Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday April 2

April Fools day is not over yet, so making again a fool of myself:

Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2963 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 490 USD.


Plot legend

Huobi's clients did not have an easy night, and this last Slumber Point was somewhat weak (S = 0.0091, W = 0.192).  Still, the Method says to use the straight trend line defined by the last two Slumber points: A + B*(d-d0) where d-d0 is the number of days since Mar/31 , A = 2759, B = 102.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.05 CNY/USD (it was 5.96, 6.06, 6.02, 6.08 at the last four Slumber Times, skipping the bad Mar/30 point).

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-01, 04:02 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-04-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~15 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 2759 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2861 CNY
Error: 102 CNY (~17 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 455 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 480 USD
Error: 25 USD

EDIT: the prediction was posted at 04:02, not 01:00.

NOTE: If a circular is sent to the banks by PBoC, but no reporter is there to see it, does it make a crashing sound?

[Walsoraj]

NOTE: If a circular is sent to the banks by PBoC, but no reporter is there to see it, does it make a crashing sound?

Yes. At least one whale insider will receive notice before the reporters.

[surfer43]

Finally some volume on stamp!

[chessnut]

Finally some volume on stamp!

china leading..... theme is risk on!

[favelle75]

The best FUD always comes at the bottom

http://qz.com/193931/bitcoin-looks-like-the-worst-investment-in-the-world-this-year/

Indeed, I loled hard. That "redactor" is really epic ; can't even plead incompetence, he's really doing it on purpose... or maybe :
- he just took a random range : 3 months (yeah 3 is good),
- from hmm let's say since the ATH and oh surprise after an ATH we got a correction. Ok so it's "a crash", -38% value OMG worst investissement ever ! (So why not the title, really shinny)
- let's not check the 4 years before with around +10000%/year instead of -38%.

I guess some of the words in his Twitter description needs to be switched : "I write about finance, markets and economics for Quartz. Decent guitarist. Terrible banjo player." !

We could also measure BTC from late November 2013 to its present price, and achieve more than 60% loss in value. 

Funny thing also, is currently, when I look up the November 2013 time-frame on bitcoincharts.com.  Regarding Bitstamp, I find a BTC price high of about $1150; however, I bought my first BTC on 11/29 through Localbitcoins for $1200 per BTC.  We already know that Localbitcoins can have a very wide range of prices, and frequently the sellers thereon are able to sell at much beyond the price in other venues.   I recall that I did NOT buy from the highest vender or on the highest day. And I recall between November 29 and December 5 -ish seeing that there were advertisements on localbitcoins for nearly $1600 per BTC.  I do NOT know whether many BTC were transacted at prices between $1200 and $1600, yet with all the hype at the time, I would imagine that there would have been quite a few BTCs transacted in that price range.

I do NOT mind flash crashes, but hovering and lingering in the $480 range for too long causes me to begin to believe that it is going to take a while for BTC prices to return to ATH... and maybe, just maybe we will NOT see another ATH this calendar year.  A lot of us were banking on another BTC ATH this calendar year..  but maybe that new ATH will be put off until 2015?  If I were a betting man, I would need to be given fairly decent odds before I would take the new ATH in 2014 bet.

in other words... currently, blood is beginning to seep into the streets... and if BTC prices were to go to the $300s and then linger in the $300s... that would increase perceptions of BTC doom and gloom... though ATM, I would place the odds of reaching $390 in the next month to be greater than the odds of reaching a new ATH before August 2014... that is my current thinking... but I am talking out of my ass somewhat b/c I am like a cave dweller in plato's allegory of the cave... with very much incomplete information and I realize that if some big ass investor (anything of 100 million or greater) were to come into BTC at any minute.. that new entrance into BTC could cause a real high demand for BTC and a rippling effect beyond any lines on any charts.. and suddenly considerable volume would materialize where, at the moment, LITTLE volume seems to be in sight.

Good thing you don't play real stocks or forex...because 6 months is a tiny blip on the radar in the real financial world.

[JorgeStolfi]

May be of interest:

Business Insider, April 01, 2014
A Judge Has Ordered The CEO Of Bankrupt Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox To Appear In The US
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-judge-orders-mt-gox-ceo-to-us-for-questions-on-failed-bitcoin-exchange-2014-01

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[seleme]

Let's beat that 500$ before I go to bed 

[chessnut]

Let's beat that 500$ before I go to bed 

No dont go to bed! you will miss the surprise confirmation of the official chinese ban confirmation!

[KeyserSoze]

A Judge Has Ordered The CEO Of Bankrupt Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox To Appear In The US
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-judge-orders-mt-gox-ceo-to-us-for-questions-on-failed-bitcoin-exchange-2014-01

Will the plane make it to the USA or will it be diverted to Gitmo, with Mark never to be seen again until the Polaroids of him being peed on by Gitmo guards surface?

[chessnut]

A Judge Has Ordered The CEO Of Bankrupt Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox To Appear In The US
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-judge-orders-mt-gox-ceo-to-us-for-questions-on-failed-bitcoin-exchange-2014-01

Will the plane make it to the USA or will it be diverted to Gitmo, with Mark never to be seen from again until the Polaroids of him being peed on by Gitmo guards surface?

interesting.

Q#1. where are the bitcoins Mark?
Q#2. can you give us a bulk price?

[Mad Scientist]

Business Insider, April 01, 2014
A Judge Has Ordered The CEO Of Bankrupt Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox To Appear In The US
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-judge-orders-mt-gox-ceo-to-us-for-questions-on-failed-bitcoin-exchange-2014-01

Mark prolly thinks think he can get out of that by casting Level 3 Ultra.

[Dr. LY]

Still playing my whale song. Where are you sweet whale

[seleme]

Let's beat that 500$ before I go to bed 

No dont go to bed! you will miss the surprise confirmation of the official chinese ban confirmation!

To hell with China 

[JorgeStolfi]

This looks like a small bit of new news:

https://news.powerapple.com/finance_and_tech/2014/4/2/1561923.html

接近监管机构的人士指出，第三方对平台是整体接入的，关起来很容易。银行那边必须得清查各个平台和公司的相互往来，耗时更长。这次的执行主体是央行31家省级分行，谁辖区内的平台谁清理，各省的执行速度因各省的平台多少而异，所以执行有快有慢，但也将于4月15日前完成。

某交易平台人士表示，银行转账功能很难禁止，因为平台可以以个人或另外注册的公司名义转账。但这样只会让账目地上转地下，更加难以监管，同时投资者的资金安全更加难以得到保障。

“289号文已经承认，比特币是一种特定的虚拟商品，那么买卖合法商品理应得到银行服务。”某交易平台人士认为。

Google translate:

People close to the regulator pointed out that third-party access to the platform as a whole, shut up very easily. Banks there have to check with each other between the various platforms and companies, take longer. The executive body is the central bank 31 provincial branches, who are within the jurisdiction of the platform who clean up, speed of execution because of the number of provinces platform provinces varies, so the implementation of fast or slow, but it will be completed by April 15.

A platform party transactions, said bank transfer function is difficult to ban, because the platform can be an individual or another company registered transfers. But this will only make the accounts on the ground to underground, more difficult to monitor, while financial security is more difficult to get investors' protection .

" Man has admitted 289 , Bitcoin is a specific virtual goods , then traded commodities deserve legitimate banking services ." Considered a party transaction platform .

At least it seems to provide an explanation for the delay, in case the bank blockade part of the rumor is true: it is complicated for banks to implement.

EDIT: This was found by Googling "04月02日" "比特币"  ("April 02" "Bitcoin")

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[surfer43]

WHERE IS THE VOLUME? 

[Davyd05]

WHERE IS THE VOLUME? 

everybody is hodling

[mzp]

4 red candles in a row, light volume, = 1800 coin dump in 4, 3, 2...

[surfer43]

4 red candles in a row, light volume, = 1800 coin dump in 4, 3, 2...

Sure about that?