Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[surfer43]

WHERE IS THE VOLUME? 

[Davyd05]

WHERE IS THE VOLUME? 

everybody is hodling

[mzp]

4 red candles in a row, light volume, = 1800 coin dump in 4, 3, 2...

[surfer43]

4 red candles in a row, light volume, = 1800 coin dump in 4, 3, 2...

Sure about that?

[chessnut]

4 red candles in a row, light volume, = 1800 coin dump in 4, 3, 2...

China say NO

[surfer43]

4 red candles in a row, light volume, = 1800 coin dump in 4, 3, 2...

China say NO

China looks bullish to me.

[JayJuanGee]

The best FUD always comes at the bottom

http://qz.com/193931/bitcoin-looks-like-the-worst-investment-in-the-world-this-year/

Indeed, I loled hard. That "redactor" is really epic ; can't even plead incompetence, he's really doing it on purpose... or maybe :
- he just took a random range : 3 months (yeah 3 is good),
- from hmm let's say since the ATH and oh surprise after an ATH we got a correction. Ok so it's "a crash", -38% value OMG worst investissement ever ! (So why not the title, really shinny)
- let's not check the 4 years before with around +10000%/year instead of -38%.

I guess some of the words in his Twitter description needs to be switched : "I write about finance, markets and economics for Quartz. Decent guitarist. Terrible banjo player." !

We could also measure BTC from late November 2013 to its present price, and achieve more than 60% loss in value. 

Funny thing also, is currently, when I look up the November 2013 time-frame on bitcoincharts.com.  Regarding Bitstamp, I find a BTC price high of about $1150; however, I bought my first BTC on 11/29 through Localbitcoins for $1200 per BTC.  We already know that Localbitcoins can have a very wide range of prices, and frequently the sellers thereon are able to sell at much beyond the price in other venues.   I recall that I did NOT buy from the highest vender or on the highest day. And I recall between November 29 and December 5 -ish seeing that there were advertisements on localbitcoins for nearly $1600 per BTC.  I do NOT know whether many BTC were transacted at prices between $1200 and $1600, yet with all the hype at the time, I would imagine that there would have been quite a few BTCs transacted in that price range.

I do NOT mind flash crashes, but hovering and lingering in the $480 range for too long causes me to begin to believe that it is going to take a while for BTC prices to return to ATH... and maybe, just maybe we will NOT see another ATH this calendar year.  A lot of us were banking on another BTC ATH this calendar year..  but maybe that new ATH will be put off until 2015?  If I were a betting man, I would need to be given fairly decent odds before I would take the new ATH in 2014 bet.

in other words... currently, blood is beginning to seep into the streets... and if BTC prices were to go to the $300s and then linger in the $300s... that would increase perceptions of BTC doom and gloom... though ATM, I would place the odds of reaching $390 in the next month to be greater than the odds of reaching a new ATH before August 2014... that is my current thinking... but I am talking out of my ass somewhat b/c I am like a cave dweller in plato's allegory of the cave... with very much incomplete information and I realize that if some big ass investor (anything of 100 million or greater) were to come into BTC at any minute.. that new entrance into BTC could cause a real high demand for BTC and a rippling effect beyond any lines on any charts.. and suddenly considerable volume would materialize where, at the moment, LITTLE volume seems to be in sight.

Good thing you don't play real stocks or forex...because 6 months is a tiny blip on the radar in the real financial world.

I am NOT sure about your point in response to my post. 

My post was intended to provide an assessment and description of the BTC situation from my perspective, experience and at this point in time... maybe you can perceive some naivette in my description of the situation, yet seems to me that I ventured out and put some time into making a description.  No? 

So what is your point, then in making your response?   Is BTC NOT part of the real financial world?  Sure it is a different animal in some ways, but likely there is some similarities as well. 

Do you have some real financial world experience that you believe will provide insight to this situation?   Then, please feel free to contribute and add perspective.   My post is NOT about me, even though I was adding some of my experience and perspective..... but I wrote it out as part of an intended interactive process to whatever extent the information contained therein may or may NOT be valuable or helpful to some reader(s) of such information.

I look forward to hearing more from you... I think     

[JayJuanGee]

A Judge Has Ordered The CEO Of Bankrupt Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox To Appear In The US
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-judge-orders-mt-gox-ceo-to-us-for-questions-on-failed-bitcoin-exchange-2014-01

Will the plane make it to the USA or will it be diverted to Gitmo, with Mark never to be seen again until the Polaroids of him being peed on by Gitmo guards surface?

"Peed" sounds too Pg-13.

[JayJuanGee]

A Judge Has Ordered The CEO Of Bankrupt Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox To Appear In The US
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-judge-orders-mt-gox-ceo-to-us-for-questions-on-failed-bitcoin-exchange-2014-01

Will the plane make it to the USA or will it be diverted to Gitmo, with Mark never to be seen again until the Polaroids of him being peed on by Gitmo guards surface?

Do you they have those orange jump suits in XXX-Large?

And, a four legged one for his cat?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[surfer43]

pls stop dumping. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[EuroTrash]

Feeling fear again.
The bid side looks enormous but I think it is fake as it always has been during the crash. (Coinbase/SecondMarket bots?)
The ask side looks thin and that is probably real. Whoever wanted to sell already did before.
If no new money comes in, prices naturally drop slowly because fees.
And market apathy doesn't do good to bitcoin. Makes hodlers go nervous.

[windjc]

Feeling fear again.
The bid side looks enormous but I think it is fake as it always has been during the crash. (Coinbase/SecondMarket bots?)
The ask side looks thin and that is probably real. Whoever wanted to sell already did before.
If no new money comes in, prices naturally drop slowly because fees.
And market apathy doesn't do good to bitcoin. Makes hodlers go nervous.

I think this is the epitome of a bear market condition. Bitcoin is currently inflationary, so without a certain amount of new money coming in, the market goes down.

There are a lot of bids down to 400. But if they were so eager to buy, why are they not buying? Whats the difference between 400 and 470?  Granted, its 17.5%, but still if they wanted the coins so bad, they are right there for the taking.

In my opinion, the longer we don't go up, the more likely we are to go down. Its already Wednesday in most places. We have about 36 hours to make an upwards move, in my opinion, or there are going to be some selling going on.

Of course, I guess we could just inch down like we did from 710 slowly and surely.

[JorgeStolfi]

Huobi's volume today, 08:00 to 12:00 local time, was only 1.23 kBTC.  It has been usually 10 times as much in recent days (except on Sunday Mar/23 when they had the DDOS attack), sometimes 50x as much. 

Evereybody is waiting for news?

[EuroTrash]

pls stop dumping. 

You make that request about once a day now.
Shall we all join hands and ask together?

That must be as effective as signing a petition asking Putin to renounce to Ukraine's annexion. Lol

[windjc]

Whats the difference between 400 and 470?  Granted, its 17.5%,

LOL, even for you Windy that's hilarious

How've you been matey?  Long time no speak....how's South Califor-NI-A?

That sounded like an insult. I think my point is still valid. If the bid money really thinks $470 is cheap, why are they waiting for lower?

Cali is nice as always. Actually got some rain last night which was much needed.

[surfer43]

I think the buy support is real. People were selling into 475 on Bitstamp and the buy orders at 475 continued to be refilled to above 400. People are buying at this price.

[aminorex]

Bitcoin is currently inflationary, so without a certain amount of new money coming in, the market goes down.

Miners can't sell now.  They would lose money.  Second Market alone eats up almost half the mined coins anyhow.  Supply here is coming from weak hands at a loss, or from old hoards.

[windjc]

Whats the difference between 400 and 470?  Granted, its 17.5%,

LOL, even for you Windy that's hilarious

How've you been matey?  Long time no speak....how's South Califor-NI-A?

That sounded like an insult. I think my point is still valid. If the bid money really thinks $470 is cheap, why are they waiting for lower?

Cali is nice as always. Actually got some rain last night which was much needed.

Hey, I always try to slip one in 

Seriously, 17.5% is a good return in the 'real world'....I think we have been seduced by previous high gains.  The market is tightening...the days of 'easy' money have probably gone.  The bid money clearly doesn't think $470 is cheap...only the bulls think that and as you say its a bearish market now.

Glad you got some rain...we had some big storms the last few nights...the last of the wet season probably...its always nice as the dry approaches.

I was actually just responding to EuroTrash's suggestion that some of that bid volume is fake. I don't know if that's true, but if its not, its a bunch of stupid traders. That many obvious bids certainly isn't going to help bring the market close to their bids, that's for sure.