Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[eXPHorizon]

Don't you know Wihelm that eXPHorizon doesn't know nuttin?

If eXPHorizon had just invested $10 per week over the past 8 years (after he supposedly lost his MTGOX coins) then he would have right around 4 BTC right now.. Sure he would not necessarily be rich, but he would have more than the 3 BTC that he had been begging to receive for free from those of us who have been reasonably and prudently investing into bitcoin for a decent amount of time.

like a 1950s broken record 

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

20 EMA crossing 100 EMA has marked Bitcoin Bottom in the past.

2014-15:


2018-19:


2021-22:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ene1980]

~
For starters ETH has half the market cap of Bitcoin so iets the leader of Utility, where Bitcoin is the leader in store of value.
Ethereum currently isn't deflationary, and will be after the merge.
After the merge the tokens will be severely limited and the event will be like a triple halving.
In the future staking will be the most easiest way to increase your holdings.

I have a small portion of my stack in ETH and it's outperforming BTC, which is why I've bought some for the "shorter period"

I agree that there are many things wrong with Ethereum but saying it's worthless it's very naive...

The reason why some say ETH is worthless is because some try to preach that a centralized infinite coin is better and then go on to compare it with BTC and then the audacity to call for flippening for a while .  


lets not tie them for obvious reasons and pretend one is superior after triple halving

[Wilhelm]

~
For starters ETH has half the market cap of Bitcoin so iets the leader of Utility, where Bitcoin is the leader in store of value.
Ethereum currently isn't deflationary, and will be after the merge.
After the merge the tokens will be severely limited and the event will be like a triple halving.
In the future staking will be the most easiest way to increase your holdings.

I have a small portion of my stack in ETH and it's outperforming BTC, which is why I've bought some for the "shorter period"

I agree that there are many things wrong with Ethereum but saying it's worthless it's very naive...

The reason why some say ETH is worthless is because some try to preach that a centralized infinite coin is better and then go on to compare it with BTC and then the audacity to call for flippening for a while .  


lets not tie them for obvious reasons and pretend one is superior after triple halving

Yes ETH does have a centralized component to it and that's the development part of it.
So basically you need to trust the devs and the direction they are going. The same holds true for Bitcoin but development is more dormant.
The utility they are providing and the changes they are making will make it more scalable and usable.

However my biggest concern is the complexity and that's why I'm using them as a stepping stone to increase my BTC holdings. The merge should push the price up because of limits on tokens and token burning.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[wachtwoord]

For starters ETH has half the market cap of Bitcoin

Which makes it extremely overpriced relative to BTC. Anything over 1% of the BTC market cap is overvalued for ETH (there's a years old well argued article explaining the potential of a utility token lies at least 2 orders of manitude below that of a store of value). This doesnt even take the governance issues around ETH in considerstion yet.

ETH has been extremely overvalued for years relative to BTC (admittedly so have most things).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wilhelm]

For starters ETH has half the market cap of Bitcoin

Which makes it extremely overpriced relative to BTC. Anything over 1% of the BTC market cap is overvalued for ETH (there's a years old well argued article explaining the potential of a utility token lies at least 2 orders of manitude below that of a store of value). This doesnt even take the governance issues around ETH in considerstion yet.

ETH has been extremely overvalued for years relative to BTC (admittedly so have most things).

If you calculate the merge then there will only be approx 120M tokens (maybe more will get burnt)

ETH. 120M * 1500 = 180B value
BTC. 21M * 20000 = 420B value

These should be equal because both have fixed amount of tokens. Ethereum pre-merge has infinity amount of tokens making it's true value 0 like fiat.

Which means ETH with fixed token amount is underpriced and should be around $3500 after the merge

[d_eddie]

Someday WO/$ parity price will come again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff8h0knWAfI

You surely mean WO post parity?

[wachtwoord]

For starters ETH has half the market cap of Bitcoin

Which makes it extremely overpriced relative to BTC. Anything over 1% of the BTC market cap is overvalued for ETH (there's a years old well argued article explaining the potential of a utility token lies at least 2 orders of manitude below that of a store of value). This doesnt even take the governance issues around ETH in considerstion yet.

ETH has been extremely overvalued for years relative to BTC (admittedly so have most things).

If you calculate the merge then there will only be approx 120M tokens (maybe more will get burnt)

ETH. 120M * 1500 = 180B value
BTC. 21M * 20000 = 420B value

These should be equal because both have fixed amount of tokens. Ethereum pre-merge has infinity amount of tokens making it's true value 0 like fiat.

Which means ETH with fixed token amount is underpriced and should be around $3500 after the merge

I dont think you understand what I say.
Im not questioning the calculation of current market cup.
Just saying that this implies extreme current relative overvaluation of ETH even under the most positive of assumptions.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wilhelm]

For starters ETH has half the market cap of Bitcoin

Which makes it extremely overpriced relative to BTC. Anything over 1% of the BTC market cap is overvalued for ETH (there's a years old well argued article explaining the potential of a utility token lies at least 2 orders of manitude below that of a store of value). This doesnt even take the governance issues around ETH in considerstion yet.

ETH has been extremely overvalued for years relative to BTC (admittedly so have most things).

If you calculate the merge then there will only be approx 120M tokens (maybe more will get burnt)

ETH. 120M * 1500 = 180B value
BTC. 21M * 20000 = 420B value

These should be equal because both have fixed amount of tokens. Ethereum pre-merge has infinity amount of tokens making it's true value 0 like fiat.

Which means ETH with fixed token amount is underpriced and should be around $3500 after the merge

I dont think you understand what I say.
Im not questioning the calculation of current market cup.
Just saying that this implies extreme current relative overvaluation of ETH even under the most positive of assumptions.

No it doesn't it's the other way around.

I'm not calculating market cap. I'm calculating the max value of a fixed coin asset, not the current.
If their scarcity is the same then their value per share(token) should be the same.
Therefore the token price multiplied by the max number of tokens should be the same.

I'm ignoring the other metrics like utility and decentralization which most certainly will have effect.

[empowering]

This will be true once all Bitcoin are mined. Energy cannot be created or destroyed.

All those Ethereum fanboys gonna get rekt when they realize the fiat value of their precious token was in the mining and not in the utility. The utility will still be there when it goes to POS but the price won't.

Then you don't understand what is happening.

For starters ETH has half the market cap of Bitcoin so iets the leader of Utility, where Bitcoin is the leader in store of value.
Ethereum currently isn't deflationary, and will be after the merge.
After the merge the tokens will be severely limited and the event will be like a triple halving.
In the future staking will be the most easiest way to increase your holdings.

I have a small portion of my stack in ETH and it's outperforming BTC, which is why I've bought some for the "shorter period"

I agree that there are many things wrong with Ethereum but saying it's worthless it's very naive...

Did you have too much altcoins again 

The irony

[empowering]

……. day two of hangover from hell continues.

Urghhhhh

[Hueristic]

No it doesn't it's the other way around.

I'm not calculating market cap. I'm calculating the max value of a fixed coin asset, not the current.
If their scarcity is the same then their value per share(token) should be the same.
Therefore the token price multiplied by the max number of tokens should be the same.

I'm ignoring the other metrics like utility and decentralization which most certainly will have effect.

The only utility it has is it enables scammers to fleece sheeple that Think "Crypto" is the same as Bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wilhelm]

No it doesn't it's the other way around.

I'm not calculating market cap. I'm calculating the max value of a fixed coin asset, not the current.
If their scarcity is the same then their value per share(token) should be the same.
Therefore the token price multiplied by the max number of tokens should be the same.

I'm ignoring the other metrics like utility and decentralization which most certainly will have effect.

The only utility it has is it enables scammers to fleece sheeple that Think "Crypto" is the same as Bitcoin.

Nobody ever got scammed using Bitcoin.

But hey I'm in it for the profit, not for the ETH 

[psycodad]

Watched Attraction 2: Invasion this weekend (I know we're not supposed to consume products from the evil empire, but nonetheless watched it and it is actually not that bad..).
There was that funny moment when the teacher/professor demonstrates his robot puppy named "Vitalik". The teacher then turns to a student (Maxim) and says: "It could be named Maxim if YOU had invented Bitcoin".

Not sure what the take-away from that scene is, but this and the heatwave here left me greatly confused.
The best explanation I came up with so far was that I misunderstood it and the teacher actually said "It could be named Maxim if YOU had invented [a] shitcoin".