Bitcoin Forum
April 26, 2024, 06:58:54 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

Pages: « 1 ... 31189 31190 31191 31192 31193 31194 31195 31196 31197 31198 31199 31200 31201 31202 31203 31204 31205 31206 31207 31208 31209 31210 31211 31212 31213 31214 31215 31216 31217 31218 31219 31220 31221 31222 31223 31224 31225 31226 31227 31228 31229 31230 31231 31232 31233 31234 31235 31236 31237 31238 [31239] 31240 31241 31242 31243 31244 31245 31246 31247 31248 31249 31250 31251 31252 31253 31254 31255 31256 31257 31258 31259 31260 31261 31262 31263 31264 31265 31266 31267 31268 31269 31270 31271 31272 31273 31274 31275 31276 31277 31278 31279 31280 31281 31282 31283 31284 31285 31286 31287 31288 31289 ... 33303 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368287 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3738
Merit: 3844



View Profile
September 24, 2022, 06:47:10 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)


2021 was particularly wimpy for the last bull year of the cycle.
A possible explanation: market started anticipating a rapid tightening by the Fed.
Notably, all large tech turned down almost at the same time despite high profits.
1714157934
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1714157934

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1714157934
Reply with quote  #2

1714157934
Report to moderator
1714157934
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1714157934

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1714157934
Reply with quote  #2

1714157934
Report to moderator
1714157934
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1714157934

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1714157934
Reply with quote  #2

1714157934
Report to moderator
If you want to be a moderator, report many posts with accuracy. You will be noticed.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
1714157934
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1714157934

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1714157934
Reply with quote  #2

1714157934
Report to moderator
1714157934
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1714157934

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1714157934
Reply with quote  #2

1714157934
Report to moderator
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2156
Merit: 1745


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 07:01:17 PM


Explanation
ThemePen
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 742
Merit: 663


I stand with Palestine.


View Profile WWW
September 24, 2022, 07:40:59 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)



https://news.bitcoin.com/while-known-mining-pools-currently-dominate-unknown-miners-discovered-the-most-bitcoin-blocks-during-the-last-13-years/

Here is the
12-month Bitcoin hashrate distribution statistics from January 3, 2009 to September 23, 2022.



And here is the
All-time Bitcoin hashrate distribution statistics from January 3, 2009 to September 23, 2022.


LFC_Bitcoin
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3514
Merit: 9492


#1 VIP Crypto Casino


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 07:56:02 PM
Merited by Biodom (2)


2021 was particularly wimpy for the last bull year of the cycle.
A possible explanation: market started anticipating a rapid tightening by the Fed.
Notably, all large tech turned down almost at the same time despite high profits.

I think COVID & the massive fall out from that across the world had a part to play there. Also the China perma ban was really bad, right in the middle of peak bull market. I firmly believe both COVID & China stopped us seeing north of $120,000.

Could mean we get an extra high blow off top in 2025. Kind of like a delayed ignition!
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2156
Merit: 1745


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 08:03:24 PM


Explanation
cygan
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3136
Merit: 7700


Cashback 15%


View Profile WWW
September 24, 2022, 08:29:53 PM

gallianooo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 677
Merit: 346


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 08:38:54 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?

Based on :

- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll  the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..

What's happen on BTC ?  We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).

It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.

Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3738
Merit: 3844



View Profile
September 24, 2022, 08:52:47 PM
Last edit: September 26, 2022, 08:40:38 PM by Biodom
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?

Based on :

- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll  the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..

What's happen on BTC ?  We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).

It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.

Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.

I don't think that you can reliably predict what is going to happen.
Why? Because many factors are in play.
If FED causes ANOTHER 15-30% decline in the stock market by their whim (arbitrarily), Wall Street would get very mad at them (like this, but 10 times louder: https://twitter.com/i/status/1573387150338433025) as the the whole calamity would be caused by their wrong policies.
Additionally, if the world moves toward a large scale conflict, expect interest rates to be fixed at some low level , like they were in WW2 (it was 3/8% then or about 0.375%) and that would mean "printing".
The rising interest rates is a 'fake", unsustainable move, imho.
gallianooo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 677
Merit: 346


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 09:00:35 PM

If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?

Based on :

- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll  the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..

What's happen on BTC ?  We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).

It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.

Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.

I don't think that you can reliably predict what is going to happen.
Why? Because many factors are in play.
If FED causes ANOTHER 15-30% decline in the stock market by their whim (arbitrarily), Wall Street would get very mad at them (like this, but 10 times louder: https://twitter.com/i/status/1573387150338433025) as the the whole calamity would be caused by their wrong policies.
Additionally, if the world moves toward a large scale conflict, expect interest rates for be fixed at some low level , like they were in WW2 (it was 3/8% then or about 0.375%) and that would mean "printing".
This rising interest rates is a 'fake", unsustainable move, imho.

I didn't say i can predict, I'm just trying to find a direction with impartiality, regarding the actual global situation. It's not only about BTC.
I didn't say that the FED can maintain this for long time, but still for some months (and continue to increase the interest rates till 4? 4.5? 5?). Even on the best case of 4, there is still time for another drop. And reasonably, probability are much more higher that BTC will drop much lower if Stocks continue to fall even for "only" 10 or 20%. It's correlated, that's a fact, until now.

ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2156
Merit: 1745


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 09:01:20 PM


Explanation
cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3738
Merit: 5127


Whimsical Pants


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 09:02:46 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

United Nations 🇺🇳 reports 'emerging economies' are adopting digital currency



Politically skewed chart is politically skewed.  Where is El Salvador??
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3738
Merit: 3844



View Profile
September 24, 2022, 09:04:15 PM

If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?

Based on :

- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll  the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..

What's happen on BTC ?  We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).

It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.

Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.

I don't think that you can reliably predict what is going to happen.
Why? Because many factors are in play.
If FED causes ANOTHER 15-30% decline in the stock market by their whim (arbitrarily), Wall Street would get very mad at them (like this, but 10 times louder: https://twitter.com/i/status/1573387150338433025) as the the whole calamity would be caused by their wrong policies.
Additionally, if the world moves toward a large scale conflict, expect interest rates for be fixed at some low level , like they were in WW2 (it was 3/8% then or about 0.375%) and that would mean "printing".
This rising interest rates is a 'fake", unsustainable move, imho.

I didn't say i can predict, I'm just trying to find a direction with impartiality, regarding the actual global situation. It's not only about BTC.
I didn't say that the FED can maintain this for long time, but still for some months (and continue to increase the interest rates till 4? 4.5? 5?). Even on the best case of 4, there is still time for another drop. And reasonably, probability are much more higher that BTC will drop much lower if Stocks continue to fall even for "only" 10 or 20%. It's correlated, that's a fact, until now.



Here is one possibility..say, October inflation readings are low (due to a large drop in the price of oil).
Suddenly, market would switch to a "bullish" 50 points (0.5%) rate hike and bear market would be essentially over.
Could it happen? maybe..i give this scenario a 30% chance.
gallianooo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 677
Merit: 346


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 09:12:22 PM

If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?

Based on :

- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).Just need to unscroll  the chart and it's looks so obv.
- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..

What's happen on BTC ?  We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).

It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish), but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.

Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.

I don't think that you can reliably predict what is going to happen.
Why? Because many factors are in play.
If FED causes ANOTHER 15-30% decline in the stock market by their whim (arbitrarily), Wall Street would get very mad at them (like this, but 10 times louder: https://twitter.com/i/status/1573387150338433025) as the the whole calamity would be caused by their wrong policies.
Additionally, if the world moves toward a large scale conflict, expect interest rates for be fixed at some low level , like they were in WW2 (it was 3/8% then or about 0.375%) and that would mean "printing".
This rising interest rates is a 'fake", unsustainable move, imho.

I didn't say i can predict, I'm just trying to find a direction with impartiality, regarding the actual global situation. It's not only about BTC.
I didn't say that the FED can maintain this for long time, but still for some months (and continue to increase the interest rates till 4? 4.5? 5?). Even on the best case of 4, there is still time for another drop. And reasonably, probability are much more higher that BTC will drop much lower if Stocks continue to fall even for "only" 10 or 20%. It's correlated, that's a fact, until now.



Here is one possibility..say, October inflation readings are low (due to a large drop in the price of oil).
Suddenly, market would switch to a "bullish" 50 points (0.5%) rate hike and bear market would be essentially over.
Could it happen? maybe..i give this scenario a 30% chance.

Agree we can have a "good" news on that, but it's still not right now.. still some weeks or month to see. And still not a huge probability. And you can still add on it the UA/RU war ; China/taiwan (ok still nothing for now, but who knows?), and potential big mess for energies before winter time... I repeat, it's not what I want to see, but above the FED rates, there are many things around still VERY negative.
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 3696
Merit: 10155


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 09:32:38 PM

Want a $1 Million Job in Crypto? How About Chief Metaverse Officer - They Are all the Rage
Metaverse technology has continued to be the rage among big-name brands that are now dolling out million-dollar paychecks to so-called "chief metaverse officers" to think up their metaverse adoption strategy.

According to a Bloomberg report, brands such as Disney, Proctor and Gamble (P&G), LVMH, Creative Artists Agency (CAA), Spanish telecom carrier Telefonica SA, and wedding-registry retailer Crate & Barrel are among giants that have invested in a CMO of recent.

These firms, while each having modified job descriptions for their CMO, are all making the appointment with a view not to be left behind in the adoption of the emerging technology. Hamza Khan, the co-lead of metaverse efforts at management and consulting firm McKinsey & Co.

McKinsey estimates that annual global spending related to the virtual world could reach as much as $5 trillion by 2030. Analysis by Gartner Inc. supports the position that the metaverse is the next big innovation with its forecast that one in four people will spend at least an hour a day in the metaverse within a few years.

Despite the "digital FOMO" trend, companies are still treading cautiously in their metaverse adoption as the sector is yet to prove itself to be a big earner. Bloomberg found that it is presently not uncommon to see newly named chief metaverse officers having additional responsibilities in order not to constrain company resources, although their paychecks still run into millions in some cases.
Information source: https://cryptonews.com/news/want-a-1-million-job-in-crypto-how-about-chief-metaverse-officer-they-are-all-the-rage.htm

Horey Sheit!!!! 

Are you lost? 

Is the word bitcoin in your post at any location? Have you heard of bitcoin, Rehan Zakir?  Do you know what is bitcoin?

Performance of a few major indices since the COVID bottom.
Bitcoin:  +201%
Commodities: +86%
Nasdaq: +62%
Russell 3000: +60%
Gold: +7%
High Yield Bonds: +4%
Long Duration Bonds: -33%

Source.

The supposed appreciation number for bitcoin does not seem to be anywhere in the ball park of correct (except directionally), because if you are looking at the actual bitcoin bottom in March 2020, then that bottom price would have been $3,850, and today's bitcoin price is right around $19k.  So I calculate that to be around 494%.. which is nearly 5x.. rather than 2x.

So bottom must not really mean bottom.  Bottom means something else, right?

Another way to calculate would be to say that there are $15,150 in profits (which is $19,000 - $3850) then divide that $15,150 by $3,850 to get 394% in profits, but even if we get a lower number to count profits as a percentage of the initial base amount rather than appreciation of the base amount, that still does not get us down to the seemingly lowballing 201% that is described as a NOT bottom..

If we remain unbiased, what's the most rational probability that we already have the bottom on BTC ?

Based on :

- We are only at 10% (down) from the actual bottom (17.6K$)
- Didn't see any REAL and CONVINCED bounce since 69K ATH (no Jayjay... quick bounce at 25K$ for such small time, i dont call this a bounce).

You are looney to be attempting to pre-empt me by trying to act as if you know what I am going to say and then attribute some kind of bullshit lame strawman argument to me, when I have not been saying anything even close to that.

Just because you get so excited in your desires to puke up lame bear arguments - should not amount to my making overly bullish (hopium-based) arguments, because even if you may well be more bearish inclined (and possibly more "realistic") than me, that still does not even come close to suggesting that I would have been making any kinds of arguments to suggest that we have had much if any bounce since we hit $17,593 in mid-June.

I am not really claiming to know much if anything beyond having my hunches, similar to other folks here - yet there were several times in the past few months that I had been suggesting that we likely were going to need to get back above the 100-week moving average before I would start to feel comfortable that the "bottom was in" which has been between $35k and $37.5k... and since we had been hovering down below the 200-week moving average so long, surely I have been thrown off by our having had gone so low for so long coupled with several other real world factors that have down drawing effects on BTC prices, including but not limited to some of the overly leveraging purges going on, the froth in the shitcoin space (including but not limited to Ethereum merge nonsense and NFT crappola), macro factors that relate to purposeful efforts to reign in investment (consumption) froth (and inflation), and perhaps some other factors that I am not currently thinking about.

Just need to unscroll  the chart and it's looks so obv.

Call me a waffler, but I have never in my life seen a chart that seems obvious regarding where we are going, even though they have tendencies to show us fairly clearly where we have been.  hahahaha.. the future is yet uncharted, even if it appears "obvious" according to uie-pooie and other sorcerer wannabes.

- I know some here are not agree on it regarding the macro situation, but please.. the probability we have the bottom on the SPX, NASDAQ or other are very low right now. If we go -10% - 20% (mean the SP500 at 3000), so most probably even more down on the Nasdaq100..

What's happen on BTC ?  We should be virgin to think BTC will hold 17.6K on these very probable situation (and usually more downward on BTC).

It might go below $17.6k and it might not.  If it does go below $17.6k BTC, then after the fact, it will look fairly obvious that it was going to go below such price point.  But right now, before it actually goes below such price point, it is not obvious whether it will go below such price point or not, and that is part of the reason why the future is not certain and we cannot put 100% on black.   Tongue Tongue Tongue

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

It's clearly not a thing I want to see (except of keeping buying every 1K$ down on BTC from 15Kish),

Whoaza!!!!  You are waiting until $15k and lower to start buying?  Horey sheit!!!!

Hopefully, you have not neglected in pee paring ur lil selfie for UPpity too? 

You should recall one of the basic tenets in dealing with my lil precious (aka King Daddy, aka honey badger.. and other cute and endearing lil names, too) is that you better not presume too much, which means making sure that uie-pooie are adequately and sufficiently prepared for UP too.. not just preparing for down.. otherwise, you might get ur lil selfie a BIG wee widdow surprise and fewer cornz in the present, even if you thought that you could see the future before it had happened to happen.
 

but we really should be prepare to this situation and maybe see temporarily 10K$ (or less?) if these levels happen on SPX and cie.

What odds are we giving such $10k or below?  You realize that the level of our preparation should be apportioned to the level of odds that we are giving to such scenarios.. and so that preparation should be both financial and psychological... and how high we going to go with such preparations?  Sounds like you are giving such scenarios pretty high odds, especially since you found it to be so important to elaborate on such ideas that you consider to be reasonably within the realm of possibilities.
 
Based on that I see less than 10% we have the bottom on BTC now.

Another wow.. you are saying that you consider 90%-ish odds that the bottom is not in.. so maybe you are even inclined to short since you are so confident.. and maybe you would like to place some kind of a wager on your odds..   i am probably around 50/50 for breaking below $17,593, but if you want to bet on something like $15k being reached, it seems that you are giving something more than 50% on $15k being reached, and that might actually be bettable from my perspective.. and of course working out the terms would not be easy.. because many times guys will spout out similar kinds of nonsense like you and assign stupidly high odds to certain kinds of bearish scenarios that they say, but they will be no where to be found when it comes time to actually placing some kind of value or even to put reputation on the line in regards to making some kind of bet that includes such odds that they have actually assigned to the supposedly soothsayer bearish scenario(s) that they will not back up.

gallianooo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 677
Merit: 346


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 09:58:47 PM

Quote
You are looney to be attempting to pre-empt me by trying to act as if you know what I am going to say and then attribute some kind of bullshit lame strawman argument to me, when I have not been saying anything even close to that.

Just because you get so excited in your desires to puke up lame bear arguments - should not amount to my making overly bullish (hopium-based) arguments, because even if you may well be more bearish inclined (and possibly more "realistic") than me, that still does not even come close to suggesting that I would have been making any kinds of arguments to suggest that we have had much if any bounce since we hit $17,593 in mid-June.

It's what you said weeks ago regarding this 25K bounce. I am just saying we have not the same definition of "bounce" when you unscroll the chart from the 69K .. there is no convinced bounce at all since.



Quote
Whoaza!!!!  You are waiting until $15k and lower to start buying?  Horey sheit!!!!

Hopefully, you have not neglected in pee paring ur lil selfie for UPpity too?  



I already told you, I started to buy BTC early 2015 at the 200$ish, never sold any BTC before 50K.

I started to buy again when we hit again 20K$ in june. And I was very surprised, like most of us I think, to see no reaction on BTC, no bounce, nothing.

So yep, I put new order to accumulate many more BTC from 15Kish, every 1K down, same order (double order size from the 10K and less).




Quote
What odds are we giving such $10k or below?  You realize that the level of our preparation should be apportioned to the level of odds that we are giving to such scenarios.. and so that preparation should be both financial and psychological... and how high we going to go with such preparations?  Sounds like you are giving such scenarios pretty high odds, especially since you found it to be so important to elaborate on such ideas that you consider to be reasonably within the realm of possibilities.

 
I don't know the probability to go under 10K$, probably not 50% but more than 10% IMO.


Quote
. Another wow.. you are saying that you consider 90%-ish odds that the bottom is not in.. so maybe you are even inclined to short since you are so confident.. and maybe you would like to place some kind of a wager on your odds..   i am probably around 50/50 for breaking below $17,593, but if you want to bet on something like $15k being reached, it seems that you are giving something more than 50% on $15k being reached, and that might actually be bettable from my perspective.. and of course working out the terms would not be easy.. because many times guys will spout out similar kinds of nonsense like you and assign stupidly high odds to certain kinds of bearish scenarios that they say, but they will be no where to be found when it comes time to actually placing some kind of value or even to put reputation on the line in regards to making some kind of bet that includes such odds that they have actually assigned to the supposedly soothsayer bearish scenario(s) that they will not back up.



If you want to avoid the macro situation, it's your choice. I just said it's look like a utopia to think that BTC will hold at 50%+ probability this bottom if we continue to drop on the stock market indices. I am a BTC Believer but still connected to the reality.
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2156
Merit: 1745


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 10:01:17 PM


Explanation
ginsan
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1316
Merit: 615



View Profile
September 24, 2022, 10:08:38 PM

I already told you, I started to buy BTC early 2015 at the 200$ish, never sold any BTC before 50K.
Gallianooo, you are amazingly able to withhold btc from your first purchase. Have you never seen the percentage advantage of profit from your investment. so I mean are you going to let go of the btc you have when the btc reaches the value of $100k or $300k. I am amazed by your stance Grin
BobLawblaw
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1822
Merit: 5551


Neighborhood Shenanigans Dispenser


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 10:15:05 PM

OT: I'm wondering if Theymos can corroborate speaking to Craig Wright this early; he's in a unique position here to debunk the fuckhead.

JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 3696
Merit: 10155


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 10:27:13 PM

[edited out]
I didn't say i can predict, I'm just trying to find a direction with impartiality, regarding the actual global situation.

Impartiality... hahahahaha

Yeah.. famous last words.

You believe that you are more impartial than other people merely because you are trying to give "more realistic" weightings to downward scenarios, so therefore your probabilities are "more realistic" or "impartial" than what other members here attempt to do?    Are you trying to suggest that you are more impartial than someone like me?  Since you had name dropped me as if I were unrealistic in your previous post?

It's not only about BTC.

No one is saying that it is ONLY about BTC - however, you still have to understand what BTC is so that you can account for that too.

I didn't say that the FED can maintain this for long time, but still for some months (and continue to increase the interest rates till 4? 4.5? 5?). Even on the best case of 4, there is still time for another drop. And reasonably, probability are much more higher that BTC will drop much lower if Stocks continue to fall even for "only" 10 or 20%. It's correlated, that's a fact, until now.

Bitcoin correlated until it is not.  Both of us can look at the charts, and you can proclaim until your are blue in the face that BTC is correlated, and it is correlated, except those periods in which BTC does step ups from stocks and/or dollar based systems.

Just consider from March 2020 to present.  How correlated is it?  Most of the time it is correlated, but where is BTC in terms of prices as compared to other assets if we use March 2020 as our starting point?  You don't like March 2020 as a starting point?  Then lets go back to somewhere before 2017... How about that?

You think that I am being selective?  You want to pick some other time frame?  Tell me which one, and I am probably going to have to remind you about the importance of zooming out.. which will likely give you a better perspective than to be caught up upon attempts at shorter term attempts to sort through distinguishing the shadows from the light.

[edited out]
Here is one possibility..say, October inflation readings are low (due to a large drop in the price of oil).
Suddenly, market would switch to a "bullish" 50 points (0.5%) rate hike and bear market would be essentially over.
Could it happen? maybe..i give this scenario a 30% chance.

Even Biodom coming off as bullish.. hahahahaha

That seems kind of bullish, but your 30% odds to such scenario is fairly reasonable (or would we say conservative?).. ..
gallianooo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 677
Merit: 346


View Profile
September 24, 2022, 10:41:46 PM

I already told you, I started to buy BTC early 2015 at the 200$ish, never sold any BTC before 50K.
Gallianooo, you are amazingly able to withhold btc from your first purchase. Have you never seen the percentage advantage of profit from your investment. so I mean are you going to let go of the btc you have when the btc reaches the value of $100k or $300k. I am amazed by your stance Grin

I totally failed my cash-out optimization on BTC in 2017 bullrun. So I kept all my BTCs and kept in my mind a conservative target of 50K$ for the next bullrun for starting to sell (20% at 50K$).Then I put order every 10K$ (58Kis 68kis .. till 98K. So around 75/80% of my BTC sold if we reached this 100K level) Then "bonus" (125 / 150 / 175 / 200 / 250..). And starting to buy back for 40/50% of the total cash-out from 70% down from the top by DCA level.

So my plan failed again in part in 2021, but I still cashed out at the good price level.. so it's still ok. I did much more well with ETH (i am holder since 2015 too), so it compensates regarding the global multiples done.



Pages: « 1 ... 31189 31190 31191 31192 31193 31194 31195 31196 31197 31198 31199 31200 31201 31202 31203 31204 31205 31206 31207 31208 31209 31210 31211 31212 31213 31214 31215 31216 31217 31218 31219 31220 31221 31222 31223 31224 31225 31226 31227 31228 31229 31230 31231 31232 31233 31234 31235 31236 31237 31238 [31239] 31240 31241 31242 31243 31244 31245 31246 31247 31248 31249 31250 31251 31252 31253 31254 31255 31256 31257 31258 31259 31260 31261 31262 31263 31264 31265 31266 31267 31268 31269 31270 31271 31272 31273 31274 31275 31276 31277 31278 31279 31280 31281 31282 31283 31284 31285 31286 31287 31288 31289 ... 33303 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!