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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26374959 times)
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September 25, 2022, 05:15:34 PM
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https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbell/status/1573849632341303296
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September 25, 2022, 05:45:39 PM
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He's back

I have an Idea lets give chart buddy off the the entire month of October

I am tired of looking at him time and time again.


Back to where to put some money.

Wife and I purchased 10k worth of I bonds this year we got 9.62% for them.

We can buy 10k more this year. New I bond Number comes out on Oct 1.

If we go to 10% we are getting 10k more. giving us 10k at 9.62% and 10k at 10% +

I will buy more miners from bitmain.

I see High rates until April 1 2023

5% is in reach.


Now if they only do .25 next jump  we will rally in BTC If they do .75 again we tank.

We are in the 3.00-3.25 range right now and  a jump to 3.75-4.00 will really push stock and BTC numbers down.

A lot will be riding on next number come Nov 1-2 interestingly Election Day is right after that number Nov 8th


You know a lot of people do gain with a .75% hike.

Fed salaries will go up
Fed pensions will go up
SSN will go up

Also I bonds will go up
and Fed bond holders will gain

Now bonds fed bonds are boring as fuck.  but they have been beaten down for a long time.

So I ask you do we stay here or go up ?

I say up and until at least April 1 2023

Interesting topic and arguments.

However before talking of 0.75 more for november (would be quite to very bearish), let's wait for the next CPI first.

Same for the 5% target  before the FED pivot. 5% is on the table ofc but seem as well on the quite to very bearish scenario. Many things can happen between.

However, as I argued on my precedent posts, if we go on that way/level we can go much MORE down on BTC price, and 10K$ would be less and less a fantasy possibility.. within few months maximum.

I would say maximum during Q1 2023 for the last FED rates increase

Strong time, Strong Hodl, Strong money tomorrow.

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History will always repeat itself.
This change is very necessary for new technology.
 is already happening in history.
It will improve our civilization.

This is called evolution.
 More to come…
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September 25, 2022, 08:08:21 PM
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the Sunday wall report


falling pennant into a wedge heralds more volatility
a bullish divergence possibly showing on the RSI with a bearish flat decline showing on the MACD
market in flux..again pointing towards continued froth
steady on


dyor


4h


D

stronghands
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September 25, 2022, 08:47:00 PM

I did much more well with ETH (i am holder since 2015 too), so it compensates regarding the global multiples done.
No wonder you are confused.

 Tongue Tongue
I'm not confused. You just continue on the same way...

Why would this discussion be about me.  I just made a observation in an attempt to explain why you might have some screwy ideas as you had expressed in your recent posts including your assessment that you believe that bitcoin prices have a greater than 10% chance of going below $10k..

By the way, we had not establish your timeline for expecting such below $10k... maybe within the next 3 months or so?


You don't like ETH (like many here) and it's not the problem, because we cannot compare BTC with ETH.

It's not a topic here, unless you are bashing it then maybe.

But the fact is that ETH is not useless on many points.

I would assume that to be the case.

As it's still important to have cash/fiat right now too.

Importance depends on who you ask and maybe where you ask it.  You are asking in this thread?  It tends to not be relevant... especially if you are planning to say good things about it.

And I'm happy to have made so much money by investing on ETH.

There you go.  You couldn't help ur lil selfie, now could you?

Nothing is full white or full black.

You are not going to catch me proclaiming things are black and white, but I will proclaim that it is problematic when you are trying to pump or talk about shitcoins in this thread when you have other places in which you can talk about that shit.

You put maybe too much attribute on BTC and forget everything else.

I am attributing that bitcoin is the topic in this thread.

But the life, the assets,  investments is not ONLY BTC.

For sure, even before I came to bitcoin (in late 2013), I already had a pretty full and diversified investment portfolio, so I came to bitcoin as an already pretty experienced investor with more than 20 years of building my investment portfolio, and I would proclaim that today, I have more assets in my investment portfolio than prior to late 2013.  I did not move straight over to just having dollars and BTC, and actually what I did was largely take from new cash in order to build my BTC holdings in the first year or so  - as I was building my BTC stake to become around 10% in the first year (by the end of 2014), and so into 2015, I continued to buy BTC to cause it to become around 13.5% of my investment portfolio by the end of 2015, and really throught the years, I have not uninvested in the various other assets that I had in late 2013 and I let them grow at their own pace, and I even added some new assets, but the value of my BTC way outpaced the growth of all the other assets in my investment portfolio, and I do not even regret adding some additional assets (such as property) even though they have underperformed BTC, they serve other purposes in my having a sense of financial and psychological security... and they have other utility to store things and have places to stay.. blah blah blah... and even though cars and computers are consumption goods, I find some utility in upgrading those kinds of things too and to consider those as kinds of investments (even though they have high depreciation as well).

I doubt that there is any need to lecture me in regards to whether I am diversified in my investments enough.

By the way, this not really the place to talk about the extent to which we might diversify within "crypto" because it remains too much of a slippery slope to get into those kinds of discussions in this thread.. and so surely a lot of us regulars within this thread might be willing to tolerate a certain amount of discussion of those kinds of diversification matters, but many of us likely presume it is not a great topic to be talking about here because it is too big of a topic and probably just better to go forth with the presumption that shitcoins are really shitcoins and if we feel some urge to talk about those subjects outside of the thread, then there are surely places in which those other topics can be discussed without turning this thread into some amorphous and unable to figure out "crypto" thread.. That would surely cause a lot of denigration of the value in which this thread seems to provide.. in just largely keeping those kinds of bullshit and distracting discussions out.

And as a wise person, you probably perfectly know it's always better to dedicate your portfolio in many different ways (Bitcoin, some "shitcoins" as everything else is shit for you, stocks, real estate, different currencies etc..  in different banks and differents continents). As a optimized globalisation, to try to have a balance on the global risks.

Sure.. diversification across differing kinds of assets.. no problem with that, and each of us would be deciding those things for ourselves and maybe there will be a little bit of discussion of those matters from time to time, but they are also dangerous to get into very much, just like we end up getting into various disputes about the value of gold and how much, if any, you should hold.  Shitcoins are more dangerous to discuss, and I doubt that there is any agreement that you have to have some in your investment portfolio, even if you are assuming that you need to... and discussing those kinds of matters just seems too much of a slippery slope.. so why not just bash shitcoins instead. and if any of us feels that we want to invest into any of them, then we can do that in the closet or go to some other threads to discuss.. why contaminate our lovely bitcoin focused world, with those very little value shitty (and seemingly never ending) topics?

Then you allow the % according your feeling and the risks you want to take ; it's another topic for the repartition.

Well, yeah.  You seem to be recognizing it as a topic for another location.  Is that what you mean?


By the way, I have been continuing to think about a potential bet threshold.

We both agree that the odds of going below $10k are pretty low, but if we pick a higher price threshold then maybe we could agree on a bet?  something like $14k.  Do you think that the odds of going below $14k are greater than 50% in the next 6 months?  I might be willing to take the other side of that bet.  We could move the price up too... I would not be willing to take any bets that are in the $16k or 17k range because I do not consider the odds to be be very far outside of 50/50 territories.. even though I have not exactly worked out my own numbers.. but when we start to get into the $15ks and lower, we might be getting into possible bettable territory in regards to how much our opinions differ, and if our opinions do not differ enough to figure out a bet, then either one of us is not willing to stand behind our proclamations or maybe our opinions are not really significantly different, even though from my perspective, you do seem to currently quite a bit more weight (and likelihood) to downward possibilities than I seem to be.
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By the way, I have been continuing to think about a potential bet threshold.

We both agree that the odds of going below $10k are pretty low, but if we pick a higher price threshold then maybe we could agree on a bet?  something like $14k.  Do you think that the odds of going below $14k are greater than 50% in the next 6 months?  I might be willing to take the other side of that bet.  We could move the price up too... I would not be willing to take any bets that are in the $16k or 17k range because I do not consider the odds to be be very far outside of 50/50 territories.. even though I have not exactly worked out my own numbers.. but when we start to get into the $15ks and lower, we might be getting into possible bettable territory in regards to how much our opinions differ, and if our opinions do not differ enough to figure out a bet, then either one of us is not willing to stand behind our proclamations or maybe our opinions are not really significantly different, even though from my perspective, you do seem to currently quite a bit more weight (and likelihood) to downward possibilities than I seem to be.

You are talking more than 14K but less than 16-17K$.

Are you able to make a bet with me, let's say 1 BTC ?

I bet less than 15,500$ for bottom within 6 months (end of march 2023). Are you in ?
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September 25, 2022, 09:52:00 PM

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By the way, I have been continuing to think about a potential bet threshold.

We both agree that the odds of going below $10k are pretty low, but if we pick a higher price threshold then maybe we could agree on a bet?  something like $14k.  Do you think that the odds of going below $14k are greater than 50% in the next 6 months?  I might be willing to take the other side of that bet.  We could move the price up too... I would not be willing to take any bets that are in the $16k or 17k range because I do not consider the odds to be be very far outside of 50/50 territories.. even though I have not exactly worked out my own numbers.. but when we start to get into the $15ks and lower, we might be getting into possible bettable territory in regards to how much our opinions differ, and if our opinions do not differ enough to figure out a bet, then either one of us is not willing to stand behind our proclamations or maybe our opinions are not really significantly different, even though from my perspective, you do seem to currently quite a bit more weight (and likelihood) to downward possibilities than I seem to be.

You are talking more than 14K but less than 16-17K$.

Are you able to make a bet with me, let's say 1 BTC ?

I bet less than 15,500$ for bottom within 6 months (end of march 2023). Are you in ?

JJG won't bet you on that number. Neither would I .

But I should not assume what he will do. He can type for himself. Grin
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By the way, I have been continuing to think about a potential bet threshold.

We both agree that the odds of going below $10k are pretty low, but if we pick a higher price threshold then maybe we could agree on a bet?  something like $14k.  Do you think that the odds of going below $14k are greater than 50% in the next 6 months?  I might be willing to take the other side of that bet.  We could move the price up too... I would not be willing to take any bets that are in the $16k or 17k range because I do not consider the odds to be be very far outside of 50/50 territories.. even though I have not exactly worked out my own numbers.. but when we start to get into the $15ks and lower, we might be getting into possible bettable territory in regards to how much our opinions differ, and if our opinions do not differ enough to figure out a bet, then either one of us is not willing to stand behind our proclamations or maybe our opinions are not really significantly different, even though from my perspective, you do seem to currently quite a bit more weight (and likelihood) to downward possibilities than I seem to be.

You are talking more than 14K but less than 16-17K$.

Are you able to make a bet with me, let's say 1 BTC ?

I bet less than 15,500$ for bottom within 6 months (end of march 2023). Are you in ?

JJG won't bet you on that number. Neither would I .

But I should not assume what he will do. He can type for himself. Grin

It's what he said. Able to go more than 14K$ but not 16-17K, so we. are around 15.5, or 15.250$ to be exact. between 14K and 16.5K average.
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September 25, 2022, 10:35:48 PM
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getting interesting around here...


also interesting because we don't know exactly how much 1BTC in USD terms means to each one of you..

(If I don't mix up account names in my head, gallianooo already gave a hint about his net worth though... )


However, many will probably agree that 1 BTC will be worth some 100k$ or a mill within the next 10 years..  So, such a bet might look bigger in the future than it is now

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September 25, 2022, 11:42:18 PM
Merited by shahzadafzal (1)

It's Mr. JayJuanGee who can't be stopped....

That's Scary.



He's back

I have an Idea lets give chart buddy off the the entire month of October

I am tired of looking at him time and time again.

Many of us were wishing, hoping and subtlely (and not so subtly) dropping hints that we wanted CBuddy to come back, and now that he is back, we want him to take a break?

Oh noes.



Back to where to put some money.

Wife and I purchased 10k worth of I bonds this year we got 9.62% for them.

We can buy 10k more this year. New I bond Number comes out on Oct 1.

If we go to 10% we are getting 10k more. giving us 10k at 9.62% and 10k at 10% +

In a dollars and bitcoin thread, you are giving investment advice to put some money into a kind of dollars that has "yield" even though bitcoin his at all time lows in terms of the 200-week moving average?  Have you heard of bitcoin?  Do you have any vices in regards to my lil precious in terms of how to apportion into my lil precious in the coming years?

Oh no.  I forgot that you don't have too many recommendations in regards to buying BTC or saving BTC, because even though you have been into bitcoin longer than this here cat, you have hardly even figured out that portion of your investment portfolio to include bitcoin.. so you have not even really figured out a bitcoin-related plan, right?  That's why it is easier to talk about dollars and how to get "yield" on your dollars, right?  Do you think that dollar-yield plan is going to work for the vast majority of either WO participants or even for newbies who might be trying to figure out how to play their bitcoin allocation.. oh no.. you think that having a dollar plan is a good idea, even though bitcoin has corrected more than 70% off of it's last year high. and you think it is better to have a dollar plan right?

What if I wanted to create a dollar plan in 2015 when the BTC price was around $250 for most of the year (and also touching upon the 200-week moving average for more than 8 months)?  I would have been fucked right now if I had pursued a dollar plan in those times, just like any newbie is likely going to get fucked 4-10 years down the road if they don't get their BTC stacking plan together now rather than thinking that it is better to pursue some kind of a dollar "yield" plan.

Snap the fuck out of it philip!  We are in a bitcoin thread, and one of the problems that the vast majority of the population has is NOT enough exposure to our lil fiends rather than making sure we know that the dollar is paying a yield that may or may not keep up with inflation 4-10 years or more down the road.

I understand that your current investment plan might not be 4-10 years or more down the road, even though previously you had said that you had at least a 5 year investment plan, but the fact that you are trying to stay so liquid makes me really wonder if you feel that you have any kind of timeline beyond just wanting to keep money in dollars, which surely is not going to be helpful for people who may well be wanting to make sure that they are engaged in current behaviors (such as stacking sats) that's likely to to give them sense of comfort where they might be 4-10 years or more down the road... when shit may well be eve worse than it is now, and we had our opportunities with bitcoin prices at all time lows to be engaging in adequate and meaningful stacking strategies (even if it might feel uncomfortable right now to be doing so).  

I will buy more miners from bitmain.

Nothing wrong with that for someone already seemingly established in the bitcoin (and doge coin.. hahahahaha) mining business.

I see High rates until April 1 2023

5% is in reach.

Maybe?  maybe not. .. They lie to us so much, so why do you think that they want to run the economy into the ground as much as they are threatening to do?  I am not going to claim to know what the fuck those diptwats are going to do, or even to be expecting that BTC prices are going to follow their direction.. including that at some point a pivot is going to take place, and it may well be the case, since bitcoin is the free-est (and most liquid) of markets that actually trades 24/7 that it will pivot prior to the Fed pivoting out of anticipation that the Fed may have no choice except to pivot.

Now if they only do .25 next jump  we will rally in BTC If they do .75 again we tank.

First you were buying into the theory that bitcoin prices were correlated to hashrate (and hash prices) but now you see hashrate and hash prices rising, but bitcoin prices going down, so now you want to go to another lame theory in which bitcoin prices are correlated to whatever one man in washington says... good luck with that.. you will need it... especially since once again you seem to failing and refusing to stack sats, even though it seems that you were quite eager to stack sats when prices were a lot higher..

go figure.

We are in the 3.00-3.25 range right now and  a jump to 3.75-4.00 will really push stock and BTC numbers down.

hm..?  

A lot will be riding on next number come Nov 1-2 interestingly Election Day is right after that number Nov 8th

Bitcoin prices is also riding on election results.  Oh my!!!!

We're fucked.

Bitcoin no does not have its own adoption curve no more.

We lost our exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe's law and network principles.

We are fucked..

 Cry Cry Cry Cry


You know a lot of people do gain with a .75% hike.

Fed salaries will go up
Fed pensions will go up
SSN will go up

Also I bonds will go up
and Fed bond holders will gain

You should realize enough that these outcomes create an appearance of adequately dealing with a problem that is quite a lot BIGGER than the way that printing of money can bail out non-productive asset classes/categories.  

Do you NOT realize that these remedies are bandaids that are likely going to contribute towards kicking the can down the road and even making several aspects of the problem worse.  I am not even complaining about the fact that they are happening, yet I am wondering why you are talking about these issues as if they are pushing down bitcoin's investment thesis when the fact of the matter, these kinds of government behaviors are increasingly showing why people should make sure that they are sufficiently and adequately continuing to make sure that they have a solid bitcoin plan... that really should not justify getting into dollars, even if we are presuming that the whole plan (and practice) is able to keep the system from crashing after the November elections  when the freebies stop getting announced (even though you are correctly describing some of the freebies to be going into effect after the election January-ish).

Now bonds fed bonds are boring as fuck.  but they have been beaten down for a long time.

Well, at least you understand fed bonds to be pretty boring.. and they are still likely not a great place to hold value - even though some investment funds are forced to keep something like 40% of their values in those kinds of funds - and propping up debt-ridden systems.

2011 till 2022 look below


So I ask you do we stay here or go up ?

I say up and until at least April 1 2023

I say that you are distracted in your getting all worked up about how various kinds of bonds are doing, and maybe even you are distracting to this thread - even though surely dollars and figuring out how to allocate dollars (or dollar variants) versus bitcoin is the other half of the thread, but I still question anyone getting super excited about anything that the dollar is doing, even if it may well be able to stop itself from imploding in the short-to-medium term.. maybe?  I surely would not want the dollar to collapse too soon, because it is likely preferable to have the dollar system continuing while the parallel bitcoin system is continuing to build out, rather than if the dollar system were to just implode and we were to completely get Armageddon, then we would likely become truly fucked to have to go through Armageddon while transitioning into more and more into bitcoin as our more and more dominant asset class... the soundest of monies and we better be careful not to get too distracted into believing that it is safer for us to be hedging our lil selfies with dollar yields, even though there is nothing wrong with keeping some balance in dollars, but I would be careful in terms of failing/refusing to see the opportunties to be keeping on stacking your sats at these prices and in the weird times in which we continue to live.
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Even though I agree with the overall message of this meme, I get the sense that none of us really understands bitcoin with any kind of well rounded knowledge, but many of us who have studied bitcoin for a long period of time have gotten to know certain parts of bitcoin.. just like the blind men touching varying parts of an elephant, and surely I am including my lil selfie into a group that might have gotten some understanding of one or two parts of the elephant, so maybe I know more than the brand new person who either is just coming up to the elephant or has ONLY been told about the elephant.

By the way, I have been continuing to think about a potential bet threshold.

We both agree that the odds of going below $10k are pretty low, but if we pick a higher price threshold then maybe we could agree on a bet?  something like $14k.  Do you think that the odds of going below $14k are greater than 50% in the next 6 months?  I might be willing to take the other side of that bet.  We could move the price up too... I would not be willing to take any bets that are in the $16k or 17k range because I do not consider the odds to be be very far outside of 50/50 territories.. even though I have not exactly worked out my own numbers.. but when we start to get into the $15ks and lower, we might be getting into possible bettable territory in regards to how much our opinions differ, and if our opinions do not differ enough to figure out a bet, then either one of us is not willing to stand behind our proclamations or maybe our opinions are not really significantly different, even though from my perspective, you do seem to currently quite a bit more weight (and likelihood) to downward possibilities than I seem to be.
You are talking more than 14K but less than 16-17K$.

I am initially trying to figure out if we might be able to figure out some possible agreeable bettable terms in which we are in agreement that the terms are clear and we are in agreement that each of us would take the opposite side of the bet.  I don't really want to bet, but if you are stating some pretty outrageous ideas, I would be willing to see if you would be willing to stand behind your ideas more than merely spouting them out.

If you may well realize, that historically in this thread, there are a lot of members who spout out all kinds of bullshit and even outrageous and somewhat non-specific bullshit, but then when it comes down to figuring out some kinds of possible bettable terms, then we get crickets.    I would actually prefer someone else bet, but I am willing to enter into a bet as long as we can work out agreeable terms.

For example if you were to say that the odds for the BTC price to go below $14k were greater than 50% within the next 3 months, then surely I would be willing to take that otherside of that bet if we figured out an agreeable amount to bet.

Are you able to make a bet with me, let's say 1 BTC ?

First of all, why would I do that when I have ONLY conceded that I have more than 0.63BTC, so why would I enter into a bet that may well consume the whole of my conceded bitcoin stash size?  

Another thing is that if we were to find something that had really high odds on one end and low odds on the other end, then I think that the bet size would change if one side were to be giving higher odds to the other, but if we are trying to figure out a potential 50% threshold, then each of the sides would be betting the same amount. So for example if you were to proclaim that the odds of BTC to go below $10k were greater than 50%, then I may well be wiling to bet a higher amount on that kind of a bet.. otherwise if we cannot find the most outrageous of statements, then I might not be willing to bet.. because I would need to perceive that the odds were in my favor of winning, just like you would need to perceive that the odds were in your favor of winning or that the pay off was sufficiently good. if you are trying to move the amount up.. or maybe you are wanting to whimp out of making any bet because you want the amounts to be  higher so you can have more of a dramatic effect.. blah blah blah.. which to me shows that you are probably not serious..

In regards to the size of the bet, probably it would be something in the lower ranges, perhaps something like in the 0.001 BTC or lower ranges (which is around 100k sats)... and most likely we would need to find and/or agree upon a person to escrow, too.

If we work out the terms, there might be some other members willing to bet more, and maybe all the bets might add up to 1 BTC.. who knows?  I would like to work out the terms of the bet before committing to high amounts or trying to act like some kind of a high roller and bullshit like that.  I don't need that kind of attention as a supposed BIG baller.  I already have more attention than I wish to have, relatively speaking and in an ideal world.. if such an ideal world were to exist.

I bet less than 15,500$ for bottom within 6 months (end of march 2023). Are you in ?

That's tempting, but it is NOT really that outrageous in comparison to my own views of possible bottoms... and so it sounds like that is the lowest that you are willing to assign your 50/50 odds?  So you are suggesting that the odds are greater than 50% that the price will touch less than $15,500 before April 1, 2023 - that's if we pick the last day of March and midnight as our cut-off for the bet?  If I am not willing to take the bet, then there might be another member in these here parts who would be willing to play ball with that number and take your bet (that seems less outrageous than things you had been saying previously in regards to $10k)..

Let me ponder over it, and in the meantime maybe another member will be eager to take the other side of that. I am pretty sure that I would assign less than 50% odds to such, but I am not feeling as strongly about it as if you were to pick a lower number.  For example, if you picked lower than $13k, then I might be able to give you 2/1 odds... but then we still need to figure the bet-size for that, too 100k satoshis if you lose and 200k satoshis if I lose..   I am thinking sub $10k, I might be able to give you 4/1 odds on something like that.. you have to pay me 100k satoshis if we do not go below $10k and I pay you 400k satoshis if we go below $10k... before April 1, 2023.

Anyone more creative out there?

or more willing than me to enter into betting terms with gallianooo on his seemingly increasingly less bearish (than previously stated) terms?

Anyone trustworthy wiling to escrow? and what would be your fees, if any?

By the way, I will give you credit, so far, gallianooo, that you are at least discussing possible bettable terms as compared with some earlier interactions on the topic when outrageous claims were being made, even though it seems a bit to me that you are backing off of some of your more outrageous claims, and maybe that is my fault for trying to pick a higher number and possible 50/50 terms..

You are talking more than 14K but less than 16-17K$.

Are you able to make a bet with me, let's say 1 BTC ?

I bet less than 15,500$ for bottom within 6 months (end of march 2023). Are you in ?
JJG won't bet you on that number. Neither would I .

But I should not assume what he will do. He can type for himself. Grin

Yeah.. you are right about my perception of that gallianooo's numbers are NOT very bold.. and from my perception, gallianooo does seem to be backing off of his more extreme statements from earlier.. but I might have contributed to causing some of that backing off..... my bbbbaaaaaddd to not stick with (and push for) the more extreme numbers.. and maybe we will figure out an acceptable betting threshold .. .perhaps? perhaps?..
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