Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

Tera must feel so bad that he's forced to buy in with a loss. As always.
So what's left for him to do?
"Bitcoin sinking ship blah blah never can sell this high again cry mweeeh we're going down yadiya".

Have you even been following my trades? I covered my short at $340-$360 and went long at $425.

[JayJuanGee]

("price" = exchange rate in Bitstamp, or a western exch with highest volume iff Bitstamp closes)

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 (less than 10%)
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 (less than 15%)
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 (less than 35%)
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 (more than 50%)
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 (more than 95%)
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 (more than 60%)
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 (more than 50%)
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 (less than 30%)
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 (less than 10%)
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 (less than 5%)
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 (less than 3%)
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 (less than 3%)
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 (less than 2%)
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 (less than .5%)

/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

I will add mine shortly in a separate post so you can quote this one if you like to join

I am an amateur at bitcoin but i still typed in my predictions, and it does seem to be a useful mental exercise, even though you are giving a lot of options and I believe you meant to say the remainder of 2014, but you could as well said in the next 365 days.

[niothor]

Tera must feel so bad that he's forced to buy in with a loss. As always.
So what's left for him to do?
"Bitcoin sinking ship blah blah never can sell this high again cry mweeeh we're going down yadiya".

Have you even been following my trades? I covered my short at $340-$360 and went long at $425.

You do just what the other bears do around here. If you see the smallest price bump you shout that you're closing you're short and go long but expect it to be only temporarily while you keep shouting down down down.
You've done it so many times that it's just doesn't count anymore.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

You chose to ignore them, you bought in didnt you, what makes you any better than anyone else.

Yeah and I bet the guys saying it from $1 are kicking themselves about the wealth they could have secured for themselves.

Who knows, $340 is as good of a bottom as any.

Or do you think that this is a bull trap and were only going down to previous YTL?

These faults weren't having an effect at the time when I bought.

They are stupid if they're kicking themselves for it. It's like kicking yourself after seeing the lottery numbers and saying "only if I chose 45, 5, 6, 11, 22 and 37". During this time there was only blind hope that bitcoin will be this big. No experienced, educated and knowledgeable investors got involved, so no skill was involved in seeing potential. Most of the ones who were involved then, were just dumb kids who got lucky at random google searches and got excited because they weren't skilled enough to assess the low probability of success.

Yes, that's what I thought, "who knows". Just some time ago you tried to present yourself as an skillful trader, but when asking some certainty on your predictions then the answer will always be "who knows". Because you really don't have a clue on what will happen. You aren't able enough to make proper analysis to support any of your predictions. You just make blind bets that have a 50/50 winning chance to you.

But I'm telling you with certainty, if there aren't new strong laws made to support the financial use of bitcoin in US or EU (I haven't considered China as an option for potential for a long time already), or if there aren't new markets opened with proper volume in new geographical locations, then this WAS NOT the bottom and it will drop more then 340$.

Yes, thats what I thought, of course these faults didnt matter when you were buying just when your not.

Your laughably wrong again, a lot of the early bitcoiners were far from dumb kids who got lucky from google searching, are you seriously that retarded? The majority of the early bitcoiners were older, well educated, skilled (most in cryptography) and saw and could understand the problems with "digital cash" that Satoshi has solved. An inordinate amount of skill and knowledge was required to see Bitcoins potential early. Your showing how little knowledge you posses of the history of Bitcoin.

Who knows was an ambiguous answer to an ambiguous question. Your basically asking will we see an ATH before a dip below $340 which is a question way too broad to give a definitive answer to. We could go to $1100 I could triple my money and then go down to  below $340 and I would still be wrong if I had said yes to your question.  I know your only trying to trap me in an answer but at this point it doesnt matter.

Comical how you ask me for a definitive answer then tell me your answer but with clauses that are open to interpretation to protect your prediction. Why would I say this is definately the bottom when all the Chinese exchanges could close tommorow? I dont need to make predictions like those when I can react the the market and news accordingly. I made my proper analysis and bought in the mid $350's I sold some of those coins today at +30% in 48 hours. I can now make predicitions on the next move . If we go down again I buy more all the time making money while you sit there making nothing on your very long term ambiguous assertions. Nobody has a crystal ball, nobody knows what will happen for sure but in the short term your loosing and the people your berating are winning. End of.

Yes, they didn't and that was the reason why the price rose from 200 to 1163. (I didn't sell at the exact top, but at around 1030). And now they do, and that's why the price has fell ever since. But you have no clue on what I'm talking about, do you?

These educated folks that you are talking about, were not and still are not into speculating with trading. Their interest in bitcoin was and is technical.
The traders, or a new race of beings, even lower in the foodchain, The Hodlers, were and still are mostly dumb kids who are not educated and don't have any experience in investing or trading.

I'm basicly telling you that you tried to pretend that you were certain that the price will rise from 340 to this, because you are a skilled short trader. I'm now giving you a chance to make a new solid short prediction where the price will be. You didn't even have to give the right number. Just say if this was the bottom or not. Is it really this hard to you? Where are your skills or are you telling me that you acted while not knowing on what you're doing?
My first point was, that you, me or anyone else can't predict the short term outcome of the current market movements. It's a blind bet to everyone and I would apprieciete it, if you wouldn't try to act like you knew what you were doing while buying sub 400.

[elg]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 5%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 30%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 70%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =99%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 70%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 50%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =35%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 10%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 5%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 4%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 3%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 2%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

[TERA]

Tera must feel so bad that he's forced to buy in with a loss. As always.
So what's left for him to do?
"Bitcoin sinking ship blah blah never can sell this high again cry mweeeh we're going down yadiya".

Have you even been following my trades? I covered my short at $340-$360 and went long at $425.

You do just what the other bears do around here. If you see the smallest price bump you shout that you're closing you're short and go long but expect it to be only temporarily while you keep shouting down down down.
You've done it so many times that it's just doesn't count anymore.

The only reason I even talk about my trades is because people constantly accuse me of talking my book, being in a position I'm not in, or being a bad trader. Otherwise, I wouldn't even bring them up.

[Bitcopia]

It is starting to look more and more like $500 may become the new base price for Bitcoin, not $1000 as many had hoped. Does anyone have a link to that Meryll Lynch report where they assessed it's value at $1300 a little while ago?

This was the original link: https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentcloud.org/documents/885843/banks-research-report-on-bitcoin.pdf

However, the document has been pulled for some reason...

[JayJuanGee]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 15%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 25%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 55%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 85%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 80%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 70%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 60%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 50%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 35%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 25%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 15%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

What a bull... and I say that as a compliment. hehehe......   and accordingly, i have a 15% chance that my 59BTC will be worth $10,000 each.  that is present value of $10k  x 59 x .15 = $88,500, and I have invested less than $35K.. therefore, my BTC are nearly worth 3x their current market value.. I better buy some more... he he he.

[JorgeStolfi]

You haven't been around during the 300k/BTC predictions.

There is a woman pushing bitcoin now in Argentina, IIRC she is claiming 1 M USD/BTC; I think she was mentioned in the WSJ.  And those numbers were still thrown around last December, when I started gawking.

It is possible of course.  It is possible also that 1 DOGE will be worth 1 trillion dollars too, if DOGE gets to be the only internet currency in use, and there will be only 1 DOGE in circulation (all the others being owned and hoarded by @fonzie).  Crazier things have come to pass...

[Bronstad]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 1%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 15%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 100% (already happened Apr 13th [yes I'm being pedantic])
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 =100% (already happened as recent as Apr 1st)
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100% (Feb 9th)
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 87%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 =86%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 81.432%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 60%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 55%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 5%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 1%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

[bitgeek]

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

[el_rlee]

The market today does not give more than 12% probability of that happening; probably much less than that.

That's why I am buying and telling others to buy.

Bitcoin has a long and glorious history that its price has had nothing to do with long-term expected value. My estimate of scenario-probability-weighted discounted 2020 value of 1 bitcoin is about $500,000 and the fact that the majority of players in the market think differently, is my advantage.

Pietilä, the über bull is back.

Loving it.

[Davyd05]

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

its really odd, that you can't stretch your mind around the fact that that kind of growth happened in 2013 already..and with the right circumstances could occur again.. but I'd think tops 4-5k

[MinermanNC]

Anyone want to switch up and invest in Alt Coins, Take a hard look at BlackCoin its very impressive right now Mintpal seems to be leading the charge.

[bitgeek]

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

its really odd, that you can't stretch your mind around the fact that that kind of growth happened in 2013 already..and with the right circumstances could occur again.. but I'd think tops 4-5k

Yes, but at that time we had Gox around, pumping the price, now we have milions in BTC lost to some fat bastard.

[TERA]

a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 20%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 30%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 50%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 70%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 70%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 40%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 35%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 30%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 25%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 20%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 15%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 5%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 4%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 3%

[TERA]

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

its really odd, that you can't stretch your mind around the fact that that kind of growth happened in 2013 already..and with the right circumstances could occur again.. but I'd think tops 4-5k

My perspective is that the increase in 2013 is the REASON we can't have much increase in 2014. 2013 was a rally year and 2014 is a consolidation year from the 2013 rallying which maxed out into extremely overbought territory.

[dreamspark]

You chose to ignore them, you bought in didnt you, what makes you any better than anyone else.

Yeah and I bet the guys saying it from $1 are kicking themselves about the wealth they could have secured for themselves.

Who knows, $340 is as good of a bottom as any.

Or do you think that this is a bull trap and were only going down to previous YTL?

These faults weren't having an effect at the time when I bought.

They are stupid if they're kicking themselves for it. It's like kicking yourself after seeing the lottery numbers and saying "only if I chose 45, 5, 6, 11, 22 and 37". During this time there was only blind hope that bitcoin will be this big. No experienced, educated and knowledgeable investors got involved, so no skill was involved in seeing potential. Most of the ones who were involved then, were just dumb kids who got lucky at random google searches and got excited because they weren't skilled enough to assess the low probability of success.

Yes, that's what I thought, "who knows". Just some time ago you tried to present yourself as an skillful trader, but when asking some certainty on your predictions then the answer will always be "who knows". Because you really don't have a clue on what will happen. You aren't able enough to make proper analysis to support any of your predictions. You just make blind bets that have a 50/50 winning chance to you.

But I'm telling you with certainty, if there aren't new strong laws made to support the financial use of bitcoin in US or EU (I haven't considered China as an option for potential for a long time already), or if there aren't new markets opened with proper volume in new geographical locations, then this WAS NOT the bottom and it will drop more then 340$.

Yes, thats what I thought, of course these faults didnt matter when you were buying just when your not.

Your laughably wrong again, a lot of the early bitcoiners were far from dumb kids who got lucky from google searching, are you seriously that retarded? The majority of the early bitcoiners were older, well educated, skilled (most in cryptography) and saw and could understand the problems with "digital cash" that Satoshi has solved. An inordinate amount of skill and knowledge was required to see Bitcoins potential early. Your showing how little knowledge you posses of the history of Bitcoin.

Who knows was an ambiguous answer to an ambiguous question. Your basically asking will we see an ATH before a dip below $340 which is a question way too broad to give a definitive answer to. We could go to $1100 I could triple my money and then go down to  below $340 and I would still be wrong if I had said yes to your question.  I know your only trying to trap me in an answer but at this point it doesnt matter.

Comical how you ask me for a definitive answer then tell me your answer but with clauses that are open to interpretation to protect your prediction. Why would I say this is definately the bottom when all the Chinese exchanges could close tommorow? I dont need to make predictions like those when I can react the the market and news accordingly. I made my proper analysis and bought in the mid $350's I sold some of those coins today at +30% in 48 hours. I can now make predicitions on the next move . If we go down again I buy more all the time making money while you sit there making nothing on your very long term ambiguous assertions. Nobody has a crystal ball, nobody knows what will happen for sure but in the short term your loosing and the people your berating are winning. End of.

Yes, they didn't and that was the reason why the price rose from 200 to 1163. (I didn't sell at the exact top, but at around 1030). And now they do, and that's why the price has fell ever since. But you have no clue on what I'm talking about, do you?

These educated folks that you are talking about, were not and still are not into speculating with trading. Their interest in bitcoin was and is technical.
The traders, or a new race of beings, even lower in the foodchain, The Hodlers, were and still are mostly dumb kids who are not educated and don't have any experience in investing or trading.

I'm basicly telling you that you tried to pretend that you were certain that the price will rise from 340 to this, because you are a skilled short trader. I'm now giving you a chance to make a new solid short prediction where the price will be. You didn't even have to give the right number. Just say if this was the bottom or not. Is it really this hard to you? Where are your skills or are you telling me that you acted while not knowing on what you're doing?
My first point was, that you, me or anyone else can't predict the short term outcome of the current market movements. It's a blind bet to everyone and I would apprieciete it, if you wouldn't try to act like you knew what you were doing while buying sub 400.

This is the last reply I shall grace you with.

Comical again, and these faults magically didnt matter from 2-30 or the run up to 266, only when the price is going down. You speak as though 200-1200 was the only price rise in Bitcoins history.

I was confident that $350 was a good buy in point which it has proved to be you don't need any more evidence that I was confident about that other than the fact I bought. In fact thats stronger evidence than just saying it.

Your not asking for a solid SHORT prediction, you  didnt ask me if this was the bottom or not, you asked me if that was the bottom and were going straight to all time highs, thats one of the longest term speculations you can make at the moment. If you said will we go to the bottom in the next week that is a short term prediction.

"These educated folks that you are talking about, were not and still are not into speculating with trading. Their interest in bitcoin was and is technical.
The traders, or a new race of beings, even lower in the foodchain, The Hodlers, were and still are mostly dumb kids who are not educated and don't have any experience in investing or trading."

Talk about a contradiciton. These educated folks who arent trading are by definition hodlers yet in the next sentance you call them dumb kids and the lowest in the food chain 

Stop speaking to me like I've made one prediciton and luckily got right. The last price prediciton I made was a short at around $440 and I said I would buy back at just over $400, that happened as well. I'm not acting like a pro trader who always gets it right, no one is, to make money you only have to be right >50% of the time. You havent put any money where your mouth is while just spouting we're going down.

 Why dont you throw some of your BTC profits on finex and short it then been as your so sure we're going down. Maybe that will add some weight to your argument.

[roslinpl]

a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 20%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 30%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 50%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 70%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 70%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 40%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 35%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 30%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 25%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 20%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 15%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 5%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 4%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 3%

do
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 70%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 70%

are most possible in this case.

Yes hehe there was already below 400 in 2014 - correct

Above 500 was already done too - correct.

What are another options?
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 40%

It was during whole January.

Another:

g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 35%

And this is what I am waiting for
I bet it will happen until 1st May 2014.  Mark my words - I will check all my predictions later and we will see how many % were correct :p

[EuroTrash]

weeeeeee