Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hen0xyd]

Here is mine,
anyway it will be fun to look back at those predictions in next year.

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 50%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 60%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 50%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 30%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 20%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

[niothor]

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC.
If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%?
That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price.

If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and
going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013.

As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy.

This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared.
I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes.

How about we stop talking about those fakers ?
China , really?

I just hope that chinese police storms houbi and okcoin headquarters so all the world finds out they only have 100 btc and 1000 monkeys doing fake volume trades.

[surfer43]

Here is mine,
anyway it will be fun to look back at those predictions in next year.

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 50%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 60%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 50%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 30%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 20%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

So if BTC goes below 200, it will surely go below 100? 

[TERA]

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC.
If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%?
That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price.

If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and
going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013.

As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy.

This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared.
I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes.

How about we stop talking about those fakers ?
China , really?

I just hope that chinese police storms houbi and okcoin headquarters so all the world finds out they only have 100 btc and 1000 monkeys doing fake volume trades.

I agree and like I said, the Chinese situation will ultimately have little effect on the downtrend one way or the other. The downtrend is in force because there are not enough buyers on stamp etc. to support these levels and that will only change once the volume of buyers increases consistently.

[podyx]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 0%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 5%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 15%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 99%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 99%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 98%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 95%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 70%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 40%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 25%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 8%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 2%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

[roslinpl]

Explanation

450

I want to see faces of all those who wanted to dump our ♥ BTC

No more cheap coins
We are ready to launch!

Ignition in 9..8..7

[aminorex]

There was a coordinated evaporation of buy orders this morning ...

Now you just sound paranoid.  Exactly how does one "coordinate" an evaporation of buy orders?

[njcarlos]

All that volume on Huobi and only 10% to the upside and starting to fizzle? That doesn't look good to me, on top of the fact that this "ATM" work around will not only take time to have any sort of legitimate impact, but will likely be cut off at the knees before anything materializes.

[niothor]

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC.
If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%?
That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price.

If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and
going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013.

As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy.

This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared.
I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes.

How about we stop talking about those fakers ?
China , really?

I just hope that chinese police storms houbi and okcoin headquarters so all the world finds out they only have 100 btc and 1000 monkeys doing fake volume trades.

I agree and like I said, the Chinese situation will ultimately have little effect on the downtrend one way or the other. The downtrend is in force because there are not enough buyers on stamp etc. to support these levels and that will only change once the volume of buyers increases consistently.

And you went long? right?

[TERA]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 0%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 5%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 15%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 99%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 99%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 98%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 95%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 70%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 40%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 25%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 8%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 2%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

[aminorex]

Capital has to flow into the hands of competent managers for sustainable growth to happen.

That is so misapplied in this use that I don't....  It's obvious that allocating capital from a low margin operation to a high margin operation increases net productivity, if you take margin as a proxy for productivity.  That is the transmission mechanism by which speculative trades can enhance allocation in a stock market, with multiple securities.  I dont' think the ratio of btc/usd trading to btc/alt trading allows us to apply analogous reasoning to crypto markets.

[TERA]

I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.

1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC.
If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%?
That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price.

If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and
going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013.

As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy.

This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared.
I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes.

How about we stop talking about those fakers ?
China , really?

I just hope that chinese police storms houbi and okcoin headquarters so all the world finds out they only have 100 btc and 1000 monkeys doing fake volume trades.

I agree and like I said, the Chinese situation will ultimately have little effect on the downtrend one way or the other. The downtrend is in force because there are not enough buyers on stamp etc. to support these levels and that will only change once the volume of buyers increases consistently.

And you went long? right?

It's a trade.

[aminorex]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total.  6 is not a case.  in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

[njcarlos]

Chill with the massive quote trains guys. Takes 5 seconds to pare that shit down.

[TERA]

Chill with the massive quote trains guys. Takes 5 seconds to pare that shit down.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

sub 1% total.  6 is not a case.  in a meltdown btc will only correlate weakly.

I guess when you have 0 knoweldge on finance, then you can't see that the main thing that gives value to BTC is actually USD and without USD, then BTC would be just a fun play money without the ability to cost anything.

[Hen0xyd]

Here is mine,
anyway it will be fun to look back at those predictions in next year.

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 10%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 10%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 20%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 50%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 95%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 90%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 80%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 70%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 60%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 50%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 30%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 20%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 10%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 5%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

So if BTC goes below 200, it will surely go below 100? 

Quick answer : IMO, yes.
Long answer : I can only imagine going below 200 if theres a massive panic. It would be under the 2011-2012 trendline (not mentioning the 2013 one). "China ban" + "Gox=Bitcoin=death" only sunk to sub-400.
That's why IMO going sub 200 would be happening only with really worst condition and fundamentals ; and as such sub100 as a spike seems equal probable to me.

[Tzupy]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

A bit of clarification needed:
1. unlikely to happen soon.
2. possible selfish miner attack, can be mitigated.
3. unlikely to happen soon.
4. possible in China.
5. quite possible after this rebound runs out of steam.
6. which economy, whole one or just the bitcoin economy (drugs, money laundering, capital control evasion)?

[podyx]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

true, i should change those to 1% for more clarity

but <0.5% rounds up to 0%

[niothor]

How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow,
1. U.S. bans bitcoin
2. A flaw is found in the code
3. EC or SHA256  is broken
4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure.
5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp.
6. The economy melts down

A bit of clarification needed:
1. unlikely to happen soon.
2. possible selfish miner attack, can be mitigated.
3. unlikely to happen soon.
4. possible in China.
5. quite possible after this rebound runs out of steam.
6. which economy, whole one or just the bitcoin economy (drugs, money laundering, capital control evasion)?

0.01% chances for any of those to happen.
And in case 6 , if we talk about a full world economy meltdown , who cares about $ or BTC ?