Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[boumalo]

OK. just need to break 499 now before we are out of the wedge! then 510 is last major resistance, and maybe we will see the real short squeeze!

It goes up and then it stays really steady around a specific number, 460$ on bitstamp atm

I am betting on a bull trap, we may see one or two other dip before we get going this summer and in autumn

[JorgeStolfi]

Is your time here part of a funded research project? If so, what are the predicted benefits to those of which have funded you? Is the funding private or public?

I am a full professor of computer science at a public university, with a fixed salary, light teaching load, a few grad students, no admin duties at the moment, a foot in a slow-going research project,  and freedom to choose my research topics.  And also occasional public advocate on social things like electronic voting.

I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment at this time.  I think I owe to the people who pay my salary to tell them so, and why.  But unfortunately the salesmen are knocking at the door (in the last two weeks, warm "news" articles about bitcoin suddenly appeared in all the major media - usually without mentioning MtGOX, Neo&Bee, China bans, the falling price, ....)   

[billyjoeallen]

OK. just need to break 499 now before we are out of the wedge! then 510 is last major resistance, and maybe we will see the real short squeeze!

It goes up and then it stays really steady around a specific number, 460$ on bitstamp atm

I am betting on a bull trap, we may see one or two other dip before we get going this summer and in autumn

I fear the trap has already sprung. The last time this happened, it took from March 2 to March 26 for everyone the realize that the whale infusion of capital had completely left the market. Most of us were thinking the bottom was in. Me included.

[trc]

I believe that bitcoin is a terrible investment at this time.

May I ask, what is a good investment you would recommend at this time? The very meaning of the word involves risk and you're right about it from one point of view and it is that people shouldn't be investing sums that they couldn't do without the next week. Now, this isn't an investment, this is pure stupidity. But then again this isn't a general investment advice club either.

I'm sure there are many low risk low reward ops, including your local bank's "superb-interest" accounts. They'll make a ton of profits on it and pay you a tiny percent of what they make. Virtually risk free and small gain investment. If you include inflation in the math, you'll realize you actually lost money at the end of the year, but there you go.

[silverfuture]

YOU CAN'T KILL THE BITCOIN

Don't have to.  It's obviously suicidally seeking an undead existence:  The concentration of mining means concentration of consensus, which means centralized currency, centralized planning and control, which means we're a dead man walking; unless there's dramatic action taken, it won't be long before bitcoin is a zombie, an unnatural hollow shell of its former self.  Bitcoin as a currency will continue to function, but the bitcoin idea, the ghost in its machine, will no longer be attached to the currency.  It's also not clear how even dramatic action is capable of preventing this outcome.  Moving mining to sidechains with smaller faster block rewards is the best I can come up with, and it's not at all clear that's enough, nor even that the will to do that exists.

There's no particular reason to think this condition will affect price in the near term, however.

What concentration? I really don't see it. The vast majority of hashrate is individual miners in pools and they can switch pools whenever they feel like it. The industrialization of mining will not mean any further centralization other than possible near misses at certain times throughout the early adoption cycle. Asicminer had 30% plus of the hashrate briefly but lost that status and even with Gen 3 will likely not come close to that again with a projected 1600Ph/s

[derpinheimer]

Looks like China bulls are ignoring the manipulation on bitstamp and trying to push thru 3000 for the third time.

[KFR]

Is your time here part of a funded research project? If so, what are the predicted benefits to those of which have funded you? Is the funding private or public?

I am a full professor of computer science at a public university, with a fixed salary, light teaching load, a few grad students, no admin duties at the moment, a foot in a slow-going research project,  and freedom to choose my research topics.  And also occasional public advocate on social things like electronic voting.
...

Loudmouth opinonated freeloader is a tax-funded career path over there then?  Sign me up! 

j/k no offense intended.

[chessnut]

lots of support above 438. we will likely see a break upwards from the wedge and test 500. critical. lets see what happens.

[BBmodBB]

YOU CAN'T KILL THE BITCOIN

Don't have to.  It's obviously suicidally seeking an undead existence:  The concentration of mining means concentration of consensus, which means centralized currency, centralized planning and control, which means we're a dead man walking; unless there's dramatic action taken, it won't be long before bitcoin is a zombie, an unnatural hollow shell of its former self.  Bitcoin as a currency will continue to function, but the bitcoin idea, the ghost in its machine, will no longer be attached to the currency.  It's also not clear how even dramatic action is capable of preventing this outcome.  Moving mining to sidechains with smaller faster block rewards is the best I can come up with, and it's not at all clear that's enough, nor even that the will to do that exists.

There's no particular reason to think this condition will affect price in the near term, however.

What concentration? I really don't see it. The vast majority of hashrate is individual miners in pools and they can switch pools whenever they feel like it. The industrialization of mining will not mean any further centralization other than possible near misses at certain times throughout the early adoption cycle. Asicminer had 30% plus of the hashrate briefly but lost that status and even with Gen 3 will likely not come close to that again with a projected 1600Ph/s

^fwiw--i'm back to mining BTC with 33GH/s ;-)

[pjviitas]

YOU CAN'T KILL THE BITCOIN

Don't have to.  It's obviously suicidally seeking an undead existence:  The concentration of mining means concentration of consensus, which means centralized currency, centralized planning and control, which means we're a dead man walking; unless there's dramatic action taken, it won't be long before bitcoin is a zombie, an unnatural hollow shell of its former self.  Bitcoin as a currency will continue to function, but the bitcoin idea, the ghost in its machine, will no longer be attached to the currency.  It's also not clear how even dramatic action is capable of preventing this outcome.  Moving mining to sidechains with smaller faster block rewards is the best I can come up with, and it's not at all clear that's enough, nor even that the will to do that exists.

There's no particular reason to think this condition will affect price in the near term, however.

What concentration? I really don't see it. The vast majority of hashrate is individual miners in pools and they can switch pools whenever they feel like it. The industrialization of mining will not mean any further centralization other than possible near misses at certain times throughout the early adoption cycle. Asicminer had 30% plus of the hashrate briefly but lost that status and even with Gen 3 will likely not come close to that again with a projected 1600Ph/s

Here is a simple question...how many 1TH/s miners do you think you can plug into a house?

[BBmodBB]

lots of support above 438. we will likely see a break upwards from the wedge and test 500. critical. lets see what happens.

^hold tight::after tomorrow we head North to $3000+ imhfo !  *watch!*

[billyjoeallen]

YOU CAN'T KILL THE BITCOIN

You can't kill the Bitcoin, but the Bitcoin can kill you if you are not in a position to wait out 4-14 months for the next rally. Those who bought higher are suffering from the sunken cost fallacy. Right now, bitcoins are only worth what a willing buyer and a willing seller agree on. That price is ~$465 dollars. rpiatila and the like are not more prescient  than anyone else. Neither am I. The only prediction poll that really matters is the market itself.

Bitcoin don't care. Bitcoin don't give a fuck. That works in both directions.

[aminorex]

What concentration? I really don't see it. The vast majority of hashrate is individual miners in pools and they can switch pools whenever they feel like it. The industrialization of mining will not mean any further centralization other than possible near misses at certain times throughout the early adoption cycle. Asicminer had 30% plus of the hashrate briefly but lost that status and even with Gen 3 will likely not come close to that again with a projected 1600Ph/s

It doesn't matter who owns the hashers if they go through a central chokepoint.  Each pool is such a chokepoint.  The pool owners determine what transactions are mined, not the hashers.  Before pooling, you had H*0.51 points of control required to control the network.  After pooling you have maybe 4.  Any worthwhile criminal syndicate could now take over the bitcoin network, including black ops of any state with the budget of, say, New York City.  And it can be done before anyone not directly involved has a clue.  Indeed, may already have been done, for all I know.  I don't get to see the code running at Eligius or ghash.io.

Again, it won't kill the corporeal body of the currency.  It will just kill its decentralized soul.

[pjviitas]

What concentration? I really don't see it. The vast majority of hashrate is individual miners in pools and they can switch pools whenever they feel like it. The industrialization of mining will not mean any further centralization other than possible near misses at certain times throughout the early adoption cycle. Asicminer had 30% plus of the hashrate briefly but lost that status and even with Gen 3 will likely not come close to that again with a projected 1600Ph/s

It doesn't matter who owns the hashers if they go through a central chokepoint.  Each pool is such a chokepoint.  The pool owners determine what transactions are mined, not the hashers.  Before pooling, you had H*0.51 points of control required to control the network.  After pooling you have maybe 4.  Any worthwhile criminal syndicate could now take over the bitcoin network, including black ops of any state with the budget of, say, New York City.  And it can be done before anyone has a clue.  Indeed, may already have been done, for all I know.  I don't get to see the code running at Eligius or ghash.io.

Again, it won't kill the corporeal body of the currency.  It will just kill its decentralized soul.

+1

Centralized mining is already well on its way.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=569908.0

By the end of the summer mining in your home will simply not be worth it without a 400A service.

[jonoiv]

lots of support above 438. we will likely see a break upwards from the wedge and test 500. critical. lets see what happens.

Well if they are following Huobi, the chart looks slightly different.

Not sure, but it's more likely in my opinion we will see a drop to around 2650. 




Like you said.. lets see what happens.

[windjc]

This is such a weak recovery.

I set my first short at 478 and it hasn't even hit that one yet. I think I may pull the ones above 510, because it doesn't even seem like remotely possible that this rally gets above that. Unless there is some unexpected volume coming in that I don't know about.

I agree with TERA that there just is not enough money on the order books to keep this market afloat at these levels.

I was really hoping I could short all the way up to 525. I hope we can get at least one more leg up. At least a push to 500.

Come on men. Lets get out those train and moon pics! Now is the time.

[chessnut]

This is such a weak recovery.

I set my first short at 478 and it hasn't even hit that one yet. I think I may pull the ones above 510, because it doesn't even seem like remotely possible that this rally gets above that. Unless there is some unexpected volume coming in that I don't know about.

I agree with TERA that there just is not enough money on the order books to keep this market afloat at these levels.

I was really hoping I could short all the way up to 525. I hope we can get at least one more leg up. At least a push to 500.

Come on men. Lets get out those train and moon pics! Now is the time.

well then I guess you should short a whole bunch right now  good luck 

[windjc]

This is such a weak recovery.

I set my first short at 478 and it hasn't even hit that one yet. I think I may pull the ones above 510, because it doesn't even seem like remotely possible that this rally gets above that. Unless there is some unexpected volume coming in that I don't know about.

I agree with TERA that there just is not enough money on the order books to keep this market afloat at these levels.

I was really hoping I could short all the way up to 525. I hope we can get at least one more leg up. At least a push to 500.

Come on men. Lets get out those train and moon pics! Now is the time.

well then I guess you should short a whole bunch right now   good luck  

Why would I short a whole lot right now? I have already set my orders. I just doubt that they will all fill. Or even most of them. If this consolidation doesn't break upward in the next few days, I might reassess and short lower.

I know you think we will be at 700 by sometime next week. But I am looking more at 270 at the intermediate term projection.

[chessnut]

This is such a weak recovery.

I set my first short at 478 and it hasn't even hit that one yet. I think I may pull the ones above 510, because it doesn't even seem like remotely possible that this rally gets above that. Unless there is some unexpected volume coming in that I don't know about.

I agree with TERA that there just is not enough money on the order books to keep this market afloat at these levels.

I was really hoping I could short all the way up to 525. I hope we can get at least one more leg up. At least a push to 500.

Come on men. Lets get out those train and moon pics! Now is the time.

well then I guess you should short a whole bunch right now   good luck  

Why would I short a whole lot right now? I have already set my orders. I just doubt that they will all fill. Or even most of them. If this consolidation doesn't break upward in the next few days, I might reassess and short lower.

I know you think we will be at 700 by sometime next week. But I am looking more at 270 at the intermediate term projection.

well If you think it's going to 270 and your orders wont fill..... logic says nows a good time to short.

no I am a bit more modest than 700 next week. but we are close to testing 510, you better bear that in mind 

I think 270 is pretty hopeful tbh. what could possibly drive that?

[JayJuanGee]

You are twisted, and I will let my post stand for itself.

Consider yourself lucky, that you will probably never find out, on how twisted I could actually be with disrespectful little brats like you.

You are NOT making any insightful statement or facts or possibilities that have NOT already been sufficiently and adequately accounted for in my earlier discussion to whatever extent I chose to engage with your lamed brained ideas that tend to be attempt to talk about exceptions rather than rules..

I was debating aminorex's argument where he said that BTC would benefit from the devaluation of the dollar.
And there you came, having absolutely no clue on what is exactly going on, and then attempting to throw personal insults at me.

Each of your points here is filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact.  

I see no real value into getting drug into such tangential stream of consciousness type scenarios, so accordingly, and as far as I'm concerned, the substance of various referenced historical posts can speak for themselves.

Ok, bring forward the points that I have made, that are filled with faulty logic, incorrect facts or incorrect inferences regarding fact.
If you fail to do that then I'm seriously starting to reconsider on finding a way to show you how twisted I can really be.
Now try really hard, a lot could be at stake here.

I'm NOT going to play your annoying little game, you perverted and twisted fuck.

Your posts speak for themselves, unless you edited or deleted them, and i have NO current plan to spend any of my time in such an endeavor.. especially with someone who by almost every post can be determined to be disingenuous in regards to dealing in realities and/or meaningful and adult discussions.

Remember this moment. There will be a day, not soon, but it won't take very long either, when you'll ask yourself "why is this happening to me?", then remember that you brought this on yourself. You had a choice and you took the choice.
But don't worry, I'm just a random snot-nosed geek trying to troll you. Not like I have the capabilities and means to do something that you would strongly care about.
You take care now. I think I'll rest for today.

You are engaging in threats b/c someone on a quasi-anonymous forum will NOT play games with you?