Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Odohu]

It seems to me that relatively pure DCA practices would account for either cases in which:

1) you have some set dollar amount that you buy BTC at some set period whether daily, weekly or some other period

or

2) you buy based on when your money comes available, so the date and the amount would vary, but perhaps you would have a formula that allows you to figure out how much extra that you have available (accounting for monthly expenses to determine how much is left available, of course).

Surely the more that you vary either 1 or 2, then you are perhaps overly bringing your own discretion into the mix, and it still may well fit DCA depending on the extent to which you may well have some kind of a system in which you are trying to stay consistent but giving yourself some flexibility within some somewhat objective criteria.

I never actually thought that DCA covered the two scenarios you explained,  I was just fixated on case 1.  Obviously,  DCA is very flexible and it is good to know that one can apply both at once, the essence of which is to optimise the investment process.

Even though I am saying that I am skeptical, ultimately you are the one who is going to have to make those kinds of planning and/or execution choices and figure out if you actually ended up "backing up the truck" or whatever it was that you were planning to do in order to acquire .00324864 additional BTC.   

I didn't know when I busted into laughter seeing that you have already allocated numbers to my additional BTC portfolio target.  Perhaps I have laid so much emphasis on my "little buys" that made you assume it should around that number  

Maybe I am too poor; so you can see why the quest for liberation from poverty lead me to this Bitcoin forum. I will do my best so that in the future I will be rich through Bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Negotiation]

'My' mean 'Our'. 'WO'....
BTCHODLE is best.
BTCBuy in deep.
BTCWait and will see.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

we are sub 26k ugh.

and a new diff adjustment in about 2 hours.

a 100th machine is earning $6.34 right now soon to be $5.94 or so.

that earning is gross no power cost or cooling cost or building cost or labor cost.

earnings source is from here

https://www.viabtc.com/


diff source is from here

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

I see that there was some discussion about movies on the previous pages, and I can personally say that in recent years I have not been very impressed with movies, but that it is quite the opposite when it comes to series. The reason, of course, is the great competition between streaming services (Netflix, HBO Max, Amazon Prime, Disney+, (Sky)Showtime), and more and more actors that we are used to seeing in movies appear in series.

I know there are those here who like westerns and I can definitely recommend to watch 1883 which continues to 1923, and then to Yellowstone.

The series are excellently filmed in every way, and each one has excellent actors such as Kevin Costner, Kelly Reilly, Harrison Ford, Helen Mirren, Sam Elliott and many others.

[JayJuanGee]

https://newsbit.nl/chatgpt-voorspelt-dit-gebeurt-er-wanneer-alle-bitcoins-gemined-zijn/

What ChatGPT says about 2140 is:

• Reward for miners will be transaction fees only.
• Miners need to upgrade there equipment constantly to remain in the business where competition will be much high.

"The article quote an AI source which says Bitcoin price will be from 1 Billion to 10 Billion USD by 2140."
And I just want to live by 2140 to sell my Bitcoins at that price.

Yeah, even my 0.63 BTC will bring in a pretty good sum of money, presuming that I were to be able to hang onto such quantity of cornz for another 117 years-ish.

Dont worry JayJuanGee, even if you can survive next 7 or 27 years you will get good return on your 0.6 bitcoin.

Price predicted by AI in the article in 2030 price will be 0.5 to 1 Million USD and by 2050, 1 to 5 Million USD.

Or you can  leave it for your descendant who can cash it out in next 117 years.

Well, I see that even from my own rendition of bottom prices, it will take until about late 2048^** or early 2049 for 0.63 BTC to get into entry-level fuck you status, which is meant to be $2 million based on today's prices (so not accounting for how much more the dollar might decrease). .. I am not sure if it is realistic, but surely getting us into a 25 years time frame for 0.63 BTC to reach firmly into entry-level fuck you status.. even though surely some folks might consider from their own circumstances (cost of living and/or standard of living expectations) that they may well be able to get by in a kind of entry-level fuck you status at much lower values.

** By the way, I did have to update that particular chart to add in the late 2048 projections that show the time upon which 0.63 crosses over into entry-level fuck you status, since the earlier version had skipped the relevant data from 2043 until 2056... maybe I should just plug in the whole data-set - since I do seem to end up referring to that chart quite a bit and surely folks are curious about those kinds of projections regarding when their quantity of expected BTC will cross into entry-level fuck you status and similar kinds of questions in that direction.

Raw numbers:
11/28/2048

$3,139,783   Expected 200-week moving average

0.63698674  Quantity of BTC to equal $2 million at 200-week MA price

I believe that your prediction will come to fruition in 2048 or a few years later for sure, and if that happens then a Bitcoin holder would be among the richest ones of the time. I think someone who may hold more than 10 bitcoins at that time would be able to enjoy his/her life happily without any financial issues. The king of the crypto-currency will makes many investors as kings and they will enjoy the rest of their lives without any worries only because of Bitcoin. I also believe that after 25-27 years the Bitcoin will be the highest priced digital asset available and there would be no competitors of it in those times. I would dive deep into the charts, but from my internal instincts I can surely feel that Bitcoin will be very high in value after 25 years from now and only rich people of the time would be able to purchase a whole Bitcoin in those times.

Yeah, I did try to create a formula that would project the 200-week moving average out in such a way that it was gradually becoming less and less steep.. and sure it is difficult to know for sure whether the 200-week moving average will continue to move up even at the much more modest pace (as compared with my earlier perhaps overly bullish chart that is also linked in that post).

I am not really trying to be any soothsayer because I could give less than 1 ratt's ass if I am right on the specifics, and surely it would be nice to be directionally correct, but not even that is completely necessary.. yet at the same time, if many of us are attempting to figure out our current actions based on our views of what currently seems to be a possible base case scenario for the future, then we prepare for our own futures and/or potentially the futures of our heirs, to the extent that heirs matter to us and whether we believe that our contributions now might matter to such heirs.. .. and even if we are ONLY looking 25-27 years into the future, there are good odds that quite a few of us will still be alive and actually kind of considering how our own earlier preparations might have contributed to our being in the place that we end up being in 25-27 years - whether we feel that we need to maniacally rich or merely just in a kind of status in which we are comfortable and sufficiently comfortable with a kind of cushion that we are not necessarily living in poverty.. and sure with fuck you status, that is likely meant to be in a place in which we do not have to work - except upon our wishes and abilities rather than being forced into activities that we would prefer not to be doing.

Bitcoin gone down! Ok, so there's my on topic comment, because everyone in here needs to be informed about bitcoin price via lots of twatter links and memes and comments. Amirite... no?

You are quite likely NOTrite.. in udder wurds:  uNOTrite

Bitcoin's price performance hardly gives any shits about whether there are substantive or non-substantive posts in this thread and/or perhaps how other aspects of market sentiment contributes to current correction dynamics.. and will we actually correct further or not?  yeah... being at the bottom of a kind of price range that had converted into a "don't wake me up zone" is not a comfortable position to be in terms of considering theextent any of us might have to consider where we are at, and sure dropping further might cause some further drops.. but who knows, I don't really claim to completely know how these pricing matters work - even though the theories do seem somewhat solid in terms of why breaking through support ends up providing some fuel for further drops.. and figuring out the support level thereby does provide incentives for the bears (bitcoin naysayers or who ever it is that is trying to get the BTC price below our current $25k-ish support - so far as low as $25,601).

Oh ok then, on a more interesting note (in my life anyway, bitcoin kinda got boring after the 2020 pump to 69k... aka "oh bollocks! I'm not rich anymore!") in reference to my house upgrade endeavors, I finally decided after 15 years ( yes, I procrastinate) to permanently block off the ancient woodstove chimney access on outside of house by stacking all my leftover patio pavers over the opening.
Nice! Kill two birds with one stone. They are stored neatly out of way, and block that damn chimney opening. I figured any stray varmints caught inside wont last long (albeit, maybe the stink will, but I can take care of that.)
And any bats would just fly out the top of chimney..... right?....  Wrong!
I was couch potatoing in front of the big screen watching gloom and doom you tube vids, sipping martinis, (as I usually do,) and this big giant black moth flies by...
"Hey wait a minute!.... that ain't no giant moth. That's a goddamn bat!...AAAAAH!!!" I immediately thought  "shitcoins!!.. gotta give it a batslap!"  lol
I eventually cornered the cute little winged rat in The Breeze Grayway, opened the door and it flew the coop…hopefully not leaving the family behind.
GO BITCOIN

(edit...fixed link)

Wow.. lots of funzies going on at the sirazimuth's pad.. not that I am even suggesting that any kind of solution might be to fire up the ole chimney... .. yet surely there could be some ways to put a bit of extra cornz into it once the price goes up (if it goes up).. and having a lame project or renovating a previously poor design has not seemed to have deterred uie-pooie historically.  At least from the interpretations of this here cat.... .. and singing might help too, as a kind of "temporary poor" man's attempted temporary fix.. not that your first-world's problems are likely to be even close to as dire as our thread's poor could have been hero, aka exphorizon.... who likely doesn't even have anything beyond a kind of makeshift chiminey.. perhaps cardboard or whatever other non-burnables he might have salvaged from the rubbish bins

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sedinvore]

Insha Allah

[JayJuanGee]

Even though I am saying that I am skeptical, ultimately you are the one who is going to have to make those kinds of planning and/or execution choices and figure out if you actually ended up "backing up the truck" or whatever it was that you were planning to do in order to acquire .00324864 additional BTC.   

I didn't know when I busted into laughter seeing that you have already allocated numbers to my additional BTC portfolio target.  Perhaps I have laid so much emphasis on my "little buys" that made you assume it should around that number  

Maybe I am too poor; so you can see why the quest for liberation from poverty lead me to this Bitcoin forum. I will do my best so that in the future I will be rich through Bitcoin.

I doubt that I am even imagining that there seems to be a decently long tradition in these here parts of denigrating the size of the stashes of other forum members - in order to attempt to belittle their point(s), and it is not even anything personal.. .just a kind of rhetorical device, not that we even need to get into any of the stash size details, even though sometimes some members do want to put the numbers into a kind of context, and surely if we sometimes might be hypothesizing, we might want to attempt to keep our hypothesis in a kind of range that might seem reasonable for the type of person that we might be attempting to describe.

.so even sometimes the extent of the disposable income can make some differences in terms of how much cash builds up on the side.. and sometimes we might even speculate that guys are working with higher stash levels if they proclaim that they have buy orders down every $500 from $25,500 to $13k, so there might be some speculation that those buy orders have to be at least $20 each.. or maybe several hundred each, so it sometimes can be difficult to determine. .and sure you don't necessarily want to get drawn into over disclosure merely because someone (including yours truly) might be prodding you in a certain direction...

Another thing is that sometimes members will also get caught upon ideas about how poor they are relative to some other people in the world, and surely there are a lot of folks who have a lot of discretionary income that they could easily place between $100 to $1k per week into bitcoin, but they are failing/refusing to take those kinds of steps, and it remains my argument that even the person that might ONLY be putting $10 per week or so into bitcoin, may well end up closing a whole hell of a lot of the gap between his/her own situation when it comes to options that s/he has 10 years or more down the road as compared to the one who currently has a lot of discretionary income but continues to refuse to use some of that to get some bitcoin now.. and that same person might be scrambling to get started in bitcoin in 10 years or so, and the poor guy placing $10 per week into bitcoin already has a 10 year head start, and even if such earlier poor person does not surpass the wealth of the currently well-to-do person, a considerable gap may have ended up being closed. and there are likely also going to be some surpassing cases too.. just hate to suggest that these surpassing scenarios are guaranteed. but we can see how someone who had been putting $10 per week into bitcoin over the past 9 years (about 4 BTC with $4,700 invested) is likely way better off than a lot of his/her peers, and many currently dollar rich, no coiners, will have a lot of difficulties accumulating that quantity of bitcoin - and maybe will never be able to accumulate as many bitcoin as that persistent BTC accumulator.

Of course, the magnitude is likely to be smaller, which is part of the reason that I suggest that someone who might have been skeptical about bitcoin and wanting to be whimpy in his/her BTC investment  previously placed $10 per week into bitcoin, since about  mid-to-late 2020, I have been suggesting that those same kind of skeptical and/or whimpy beginner bitcoiners start out with $100 per week into bitcoin, and surely we know that some people around the world do not have that level of discretionary income, so they cannot go that high.. but still we are currently in a magnitudes levels higher even though surely bitcoin is likely to continue to perform well, it just may well not be with similar levels of exponentially as earlier (even though some decent expoentialities of 1000x or so do still seem to be quite possible.. just might take 100 or more years to play out, who knows?)

[BitcoinBunny]

I'll believe it when I see it with this beginning of the bull run shit.

So far we can't even stay above 26K.

 


Is there a chance the halving won't do anything for the price?

[bitcoinPsycho]

I'll believe it when I see it with this beginning of the bull run shit.

So far we can't even stay above 26K.

 


Is there a chance the halving won't do anything for the price?

Is the pope Jewish?

[philipma1957]

I'll believe it when I see it with this beginning of the bull run shit.

So far we can't even stay above 26K.

 


Is there a chance the halving won't do anything for the price?

Sure, but if that happens it would do wonders for difficulty.


This has not happened much with BTC.  ie price really hurting the difficulty.

but we did have a stretch of Difficulty dropping in Oct 2018 to feb 2019 IIRC

If you think of mining supporting the floor price as a believable theory.

Than we are near the mining floor as I type.

So if a ½ comes and price stays at 25-30k

Mining would need to drop like mad to match prices.

hey you never know it has happened with shit coins. 

It would be a first for BTC maybe then we find out who the real men are. Or BTC death spirals into
non-existentance.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

Bears trying hard breaking $26k resistance, when successful expect a soulcrushing drop to $20k support.

[JayJuanGee]

I'll believe it when I see it with this beginning of the bull run shit.

So far we can't even stay above 26K.

 

Is there a chance the halving won't do anything for the price?

We are likely already in the beginning of the bullmarket since November - yet, sure it can be difficult to know because it can take a while for the UPpity momentum to rampen up.

In other words, there seem to be pretty decent odds that the bottom (of $15,479) is in.

Sure, there are some outstanding macro events, and sure over the past 9 months or so, there have been decreases in the value of the dollar that cause our current BTC prices of $26k-ish to actually even be lower in "real" terms.

There may also be some pretty decently BIG additional macro-factors to hit - but not too many of us regulars really believe that king daddy gives too many shits about macro-events in the sense of it being to the same correlated price moves as other asset classes, even if during short period liquidity periods dee cornz may well end up selling a lot more and a lot further than various other assets.. but so what about some of the short-term phenomena when we should be zooming out and not placing too many high time frame expectations on what we are expecting or wanting dee cornz to do. also in terms of many bears/bitcoin naysayers/no coiners and/or status quo financially rich wanting to push BTC prices down as far as they can and to keep them down as far as they can for as long at they can.. .. and many of longer term coiners likely realize (without wishful-thinking) that they DOWNity players are likely their own portfolios at risk if they are not actually accumulating BTC on the side, instead of wrongly thinking that they can "control" this bad boy.

If you are not getting enough UP..  or you are feeling like the halvening is not going to have any effect, then sure that is on you to be having those kinds of seemingly impatient thoughts, and surely, it can take a lot of months after the halvening before that additional shortage of coins is actually started to really be felt, and that seems to be part of the reason why we might not even get much if any UPwards BTC price moves for many months after the halvening.. sure maybe it will be a year this time.. I have my doubts, but sure it is possible that BTC prices could end up being depressed and suppresed for longer than many BTC bulls would like it to be and longer than they are able to stay solvent... so good luck holding onto your coins if you cannot take a bit of downity movement and/or failure of dee cornz to go up.

I'll believe it when I see it with this beginning of the bull run shit.

So far we can't even stay above 26K.
 

Is there a chance the halving won't do anything for the price?

Is the pope Jewish?

I am not sure... he might not even be a he the way definitions are redefined in these here times.

[edited out]

Sure, but if that happens it would do wonders for difficulty.

This has not happened much with BTC.  ie price really hurting the difficulty.

but we did have a stretch of Difficulty dropping in Oct 2018 to feb 2019 IIRC

If you think of mining supporting the floor price as a believable theory.

Than Then we are near the mining floor as I type.

FTFY

So if a ½ comes and price stays at 25-30k

Mining would need to drop like mad to match prices.

Oh?  so you admit it.  Mining is adjusting to the BTC price.  right

right




rrrrrriiiiiiggggggghhhhhtttttttttt?

Not the other way around.

hey you never know it has happened with shit coins. 

I know that the tail does not wag the dog.  I know that much.

 

It would be a first for BTC maybe then we find out who the real men are. Or BTC death spirals into
non-existentance.

I don't mind a bit of exaggeration, but geez.. we are not even close to any kind of a BTC death spiral... we have not even broken below "don't wake me up zone," yet.

Sure there currently seems to be a lot of pressure to break downity.. but even if we break down there is likely to be a few more support spots before even getting back into double bottom territory. and a double bottom is not even needed to happen.. . I would not assume that it is going to be very easy, even speaking hypothetically, to get the breaking of support at each of the legs of something like $22k, $20k, $18k to even get down to our current local bottom of $15,479.. so there would probably be some needs to get below $10k before BTC death spiral themes might start to even be plausibly relevant. which I would still have my doubts even if we were to make it back into the lower 5 digits and members like gallianooo will be coming back into the thread to tell us that he predicted it all along... blah blah blah.

Bears trying hard breaking $26k resistance, when successful expect a soulcrushing drop to $20k support.

Surely that would end up shaking quite a few more weak hands, and I am not even sure if it would need to go down that far in order to accomplish the shaking weak hands agenda.. but sure, maybe I am merely imagining that there might be support somewhere between $25,500 and $20k.. like maybe around $22k.. but hey?  what do I know?  I am largely just guessing, which is also known as the employment of SOMA^{tm-thanks deddie}methodology.

[Gachapin]

"bull run shit"
"BTC death spiral"
"soulcrushing drop to $20k"

bad sentiment... often a good foundation for a price rise

for now, all I can see is a possible retest of the 25k support line




source is a shitcoiner, but I needed to quickly find a chart