Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

 it does make me wonder how those 9 merits were killed off.

[1714216519]

1714216519

[Who is John Galt?]

it does make me wonder how those 9 merits were killed off.

They may not have been "killed off". It says "170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted", i.e. it is quite possible that 170 posts from 5 users were deleted, for those deleted posts 9 merits were credited. Probably only posts removed, not merits. Other posts were unmerited.

[philipma1957]

it does make me wonder how those 9 merits were killed off.

They may not have been "killed off". It says "170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted", i.e. it is quite possible that 170 posts from 5 users were deleted, for those deleted posts 9 merits were credited. Probably only posts removed, not merits. Other posts were unmerited.

That's correct the dual interpretation  does mean either could be true.

Every part was deleted.

Or every part other than the merits were deleted.

[ibminer]

It is letting you know the posts had received merit, but it doesn't mean the merit itself was deleted.. it's a little confusing.

[ibminer]

This thread's getting a little gay

.. no offense to Bob!  

I think it's OK if you spell it "ghey".  

Maybe, but then people will ridicule me for not being able to spell... damned if I do, damned if I don't.

Edit:

Or you could say this thread's getting a little LGBTQQIP2SAA+

I thought you were [jokingly] exaggerating, but no those are actual letters that have been added, smh. It looks like they stole the model # of a Single Port IP to Serial Asynchronous Adapter. Anyway, maybe that was a ghey joke..    

[gallianooo]

Will it take the wind out of the ETF approval announcement when it happens?

No

I'd also say no. Approvals are usually bullish for price until product launch date, while the launches themselves have always been bearish.

Look at the recent Futures/ETF based launches in Bitcoin's history:

December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83%
September 2019 Bakkt Futures: -60%
October 2021: ProShares ETF -75%
November 2021: VanEck ETF -75%

Sure these ETF applications are different, as it's based on spot ETFs, but I'm not convinced that "this time will be different". At best we only see a 50% correction when price is around $50K-$60K compared to -60% to -80%, as an approval could push prices much higher in the meantime. That would also fit the current cycle with a bear market rally relief rally followed by final pre-halving correction scenario.

Remember the CME/CBOE approvals in August 2017 around $5K? Price went up 4x from there until launch date. So 2x from here doesn't seem out the question.

It's just another buy the rumour sell the news event imo, not much else in the immediate term. Ofc long-term, sure, it's bullish. No arguments there.

But...

December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83%
October 2021: ProShares ETF -75%
November 2021: VanEck ETF -75%

was the Top of the 2 previous bullmarket. So seem to be quite difficult to compare with the current situation. As we are still in bear/side way market since +/- 2 years.

It's a fair point. It's the Bakkt scenario I'm more concerned about, that was after a strong bear market relief rally and months of consolidation (that turned into distribution) in the exact same time frame as this bear market. I highly doubt price would fall further than 60%, because as you said this isn't the peak of a bull market, but who's to say there won't be a run to $50K soon because an ETF approval.

Overall price increasing on an approval is more or less a given I believe, unless something disastrous happens during that period. Look at what happened when Greyscale won against the SEC, that wasn't even an approval and price spiked up by 5% within an hour based on positive news. I therefore don't really see how an ETF could launch without price first dramatically increasing based on the approval news.

So for me the two scenarios go hand in hand. The reason price dumps after a product launch is because the price dramatically increased leading up to it.

Globally agree with you, but we can still say, concerning BAKKT timing (september 2019), we had a REAL bear market rally. We went almost back to 14K$ in summer 2019. In comparaison, it's the 'same' if we went to 50K$, but we just did x2 from the bottom to 31K (and in a "below 200WMA scenario" for months, below previous ATH etc.). In 2018-2019, in a 'less' negative price scenario, we did  almost x5 (3K to 14K). Bigger correction at this time seem 'normal'.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@croesus_BTC
Big players on Wall Street don't want to telegraph their intent.

But to get an ETF approved, you have to formally signal your plans months in advance.

That's what BlackRock has done.

You have an opportunity to front run them.

Wake up.  This is your #Bitcoin  opportunity
https://x.com/croesus_btc/status/1696960041067204640


@Ashcryptoreal
US printing trillion for next 2 years

Grayscale & ripple won against SEC

Blackrock and many other companies
with trillions of dollars have filed for
Bitcoin ETF.

$100k BTC is coming in next 1-2 years
Just be patient and don’t less these
bears scare you. Avoid leverage
https://x.com/ashcryptoreal/status/1696963847473471513


@BitcoinMagazine
JUST IN - Bloomberg Senior Macro Strategist: "The inevitable approval of #Bitcoin  ETFs in the US is moving closer." 🇺🇸
https://x.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1696939070281089154

[Biodom]

@croesus_BTC
Big players on Wall Street don't want to telegraph their intent.

But to get an ETF approved, you have to formally signal your plans months in advance.

That's what BlackRock has done.

You have an opportunity to front run them.

Wake up.  This is your #Bitcoin  opportunity
https://x.com/croesus_btc/status/1696960041067204640


@Ashcryptoreal
US printing trillion for next 2 years

Grayscale & ripple won against SEC

Blackrock and many other companies
with trillions of dollars have filed for
Bitcoin ETF.

$100k BTC is coming in next 1-2 years
Just be patient and don’t less these
bears scare you. Avoid leverage
https://x.com/ashcryptoreal/status/1696963847473471513


@BitcoinMagazine
JUST IN - Bloomberg Senior Macro Strategist: "The inevitable approval of #Bitcoin  ETFs in the US is moving closer." 🇺🇸
https://x.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1696939070281089154

Yes, and your described target is very conservative, but I am quite sure that they are buying ahead of that and then will distribute at 3-5 times higher prices to the "crowd" that will buy on approval.
At least, that is what I expect. So far, absolutely every "large" approval of anything in bitcoin was always a sell (at least a few short months later and sometimes almost immediately): futures, coinbase starting trading, Musk buying, etc., etc. Paradoxically, Silk road bust was a buy and not a sell, contrary to the expectations back then.

[OgNasty]

I think more people got liquidated going long during this small drop then we’re liquidated being short through the jump in price the other day. This shows that people are still taking ridiculous bets and have an over bullish view of the current market. Stop trading with leverage and start stacking unless you want to be left behind.

[PoolMinor]

I think more people got liquidated going long during this small drop then we’re liquidated being short through the jump in price the other day. This shows that people are still taking ridiculous bets and have an over bullish view of the current market. Stop trading with leverage and start stacking unless you want to be left behind.

In the last 10 years, that I have been with the company (Bitcoin). The most telltale sign of price upward movements is bitcoin moving back to the exchanges. Until we see the large volumes and these movements....plan on going sideways for a bit.

[Biodom]

I think more people got liquidated going long during this small drop then we’re liquidated being short through the jump in price the other day. This shows that people are still taking ridiculous bets and have an over bullish view of the current market. Stop trading with leverage and start stacking unless you want to be left behind.

In the last 10 years, that I have been with the company (Bitcoin). The most telltale sign of price upward movements is bitcoin moving back to the exchanges. Until we see the large volumes and these movements....plan on going sideways for a bit.

This says that it was true until Q1 2020, and at least partially wrong since then:

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29045/bitcoin-exchange-balance-total

[vapourminer]

In the last 10 years, that I have been with the company (Bitcoin). The most telltale sign of price upward movements is bitcoin moving back to the exchanges. Until we see the large volumes and these movements....plan on going sideways for a bit.

This says that it was true until Q1 2020, and at least partially wrong since then:

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29045/bitcoin-exchange-balance-total

ok

so its true until it isnt true

got it

but anyway.. when do we get rich?

[philipma1957]

In the last 10 years, that I have been with the company (Bitcoin). The most telltale sign of price upward movements is bitcoin moving back to the exchanges. Until we see the large volumes and these movements....plan on going sideways for a bit.

This says that it was true until Q1 2020, and at least partially wrong since then:

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29045/bitcoin-exchange-balance-total

ok

so its true until it isnt true

got it

but anyway.. when do we get rich?

soon 🔜

[xhomerx10]

I think more people got liquidated going long during this small drop then we’re liquidated being short through the jump in price the other day. This shows that people are still taking ridiculous bets and have an over bullish view of the current market. Stop trading with leverage and start stacking unless you want to be left behind.

 Hold my beer!

[nutildah]

Damn... 

[JayJuanGee]

Will it take the wind out of the ETF approval announcement when it happens?

No

I'd also say no. Approvals are usually bullish for price until product launch date, while the launches themselves have always been bearish.

Look at the recent Futures/ETF based launches in Bitcoin's history:

December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83%
September 2019 Bakkt Futures: -60%
October 2021: ProShares ETF -75%
November 2021: VanEck ETF -75%

Sure these ETF applications are different, as it's based on spot ETFs, but I'm not convinced that "this time will be different". At best we only see a 50% correction when price is around $50K-$60K compared to -60% to -80%, as an approval could push prices much higher in the meantime. That would also fit the current cycle with a bear market rally relief rally followed by final pre-halving correction scenario.

Remember the CME/CBOE approvals in August 2017 around $5K? Price went up 4x from there until launch date. So 2x from here doesn't seem out the question.

It's just another buy the rumour sell the news event imo, not much else in the immediate term. Ofc long-term, sure, it's bullish. No arguments there.

You answered a question dragonvslinux, but it was not the question that OgNasty was asking.. because if you look at the context of the question, the "it" of the question refers to a kind of hypothetical if the MTGOX coins were to be released and also the ETF were to be approved, then would the fact the MTGOX coin relief (presumed to be DOWNwardly pressuring BTC prices) and the spot ETF approval (presumptively UPpity pressuring prices), so the question is about whether MTGOX release would end up neutralizing the UPpity effect of a spot ETF approval.

You talked about various historical bitcoin future ETFs (financial products) but you did not even mention the potential MTGOX release of coins situation in such a spot bitcoin ETF approval context.

Everyone yesterday after the news of the win og greyscale against SEC, was very euphorical, and its ok, but after a day i can say, its not looking so good for us in term of price in the short run.

If after such an important win we only recover a 5% and we start very fast to return into the 27k price and lower, its not a good sign for the short term, i can see us again in the 26/25k for a "long" time like until the end of the year.

The only thing that can cahnge that for me its another new more for the ETF market aprobation or something related.

You can see it, but does your sight have any meaning, beyond fantasizing?

https://twitter.com/BTCTN/status/1696713063284519104?t=AK6OSoc5RxCkwVLLcTgwtg&s=19

Welcome to my ignore spammer.

TRY READING THE FUCKING THREAD BEFORE POSTING YOUR TWATTER SHITLINKS.

Apologies I'm editing in a sec
Thanks for letting me know.

yeah sure  

  Well, he did edit.. but apparently to make the twitter link better?  smh.. you can't make this stuff up.

A. D. C. court has ruled in favour of Grayscale

Ah, it's the old  A. D. C. court trick.  Missed it by that much!

Are you saying that I should send another smerit to that post for the extra efforts that were carried out by this attentive and request fulfilling poster of such relevant/substantive cornz content?

Apologies I'm editing in a sec
Thanks for letting me know.

The problem is not in the form in which you draw up a link to the source of this picture. The problem is that this topic has been actively discussed over the past few pages and more meaningfully. If you read the thread, you would know...

Thanks, Yes later went back to previous threads and realized it was already being discussed and that's my bad.

So go back and delete it which would take away the merit jjg gave you
at least I think it would.

A. D. C. court has ruled in favour of Grayscale

Deleting a post does not take away the merits that the member had received for such post (and I see ibminer already mentioned this).  The merit list (descriptions) for that member would just show the post in which the merit had been received as a deleted post.

But deleting posts may end up reducing someone's forum rank based on loss of activity points... depending on how many post are deleted.. you can ask some famous WO member(s) in regards to their having had gone on a post deleting spree.

[Negotiation]

Original Image


1BTC=27,242 USD
Observing price movement.
Last this weekend nice summer.

[sirazimuth]

.....

But deleting posts may end up reducing someone's forum rank based on loss of activity points... depending on how many post are deleted.. you can ask some famous WO member(s) in regards to their having had gone on a post deleting spree.

I remember that. (as I'm sure most WO legends do)
I occasionally delete my asshat posts (due to excessive, celebratory, expresso nips, celebrating the fact I'm still alive to celebrate) the next day, when I am of sound mind.
Mind you, I don't think my deletion numbers come close to that epic deletion spree that caused the page count of this here famous thread to be reduced by not an insignificant amount.
(No names shall be mentioned, of course. Incidentally, the user has ranked right back up again to very respectable numbers.)


So before doing my once daily price check, (I've cured my hourly habit) I like to predict what the price is and then look and see how close I am.
Almost nailed it today. I predicted $27,206 ... My ticker said $27,212.  So do I win a coffee mug?

GO BITCOIN

[ivomm]

To me, the SEC's heavy loss in court means an almost certain approval of ETF, no matter how much clown Gary doesn't like it. The SEC must be complete morons not to draw the following conclusions. In principle, they have several options.
1. Within the period of 45 days to appeal to the Supreme Court. There, the inevitable decision will be the same, which means more financial losses, so it is completely pointless.
2. They accept the court's decision, Grayscale files again, but the SEC refuses for another reason. There will be another case and the court will make the same decision again. SEC have already put forward all possible reasons for refusal and are unable to prove them.
3. The SEC revokes the futures approval and again gives a negative decision on Grayscale. There will follow a new case from the futures companies, which will inevitably prove to the court that there is no basis for this change in the SEC's decision. So again, SEC will be forced to approve both futures and spot ETF's.
4. The SEC vacates its order, Grayscale resubmits, and within a few months, Grayscale and everyone else gets approval. This is the only sensible solution for SEC.

[johnsaributua]

.....

But deleting posts may end up reducing someone's forum rank based on loss of activity points... depending on how many post are deleted.. you can ask some famous WO member(s) in regards to their having had gone on a post deleting spree.

I remember that. (as I'm sure most WO legends do)
I occasionally delete my asshat posts (due to excessive, celebratory, expresso nips, celebrating the fact I'm still alive to celebrate) the next day, when I am of sound mind.
Mind you, I don't think my deletion numbers come close to that epic deletion spree that caused the page count of this here famous thread to be reduced by not an insignificant amount.
(No names shall be mentioned, of course. Incidentally, the user has ranked right back up again to very respectable numbers.)


So before doing my once daily price check, (I've cured my hourly habit) I like to predict what the price is and then look and see how close I am.
Almost nailed it today. I predicted $27,206 ... My ticker said $27,212.  So do I win a coffee mug?

GO BITCOIN

$27,206 oh yes sir that cup of coffee for you. I think that will continue for a while. just missing a few 0's, behind her.. gif